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President Garrett Walker

An Electoral History of the United States of America

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FIORINA, WARREN WIN NEW HAMPSHIRE

the Manchester Union Leader, February 9, 2016

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Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina has won the Republican New Hampshire primaries, beating John Kasich by 10 points, who in turn beat Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush by 1.5 points. Donald Trump scored a disappointing 8th place, out of 8, which calls his status as frontrunner into question. Most say that his recent debate meltdowns are to blame for the real-estate mogul's primary defeats thus far.

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The New Hampshire Democratic primary had a massive number of undecided voters (over 26%) on election day, and that combined with Bernie Sanders underperforming his polls by about 5 points lead to Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren winning the primary with 41% to Joe Biden's 34%, Bernie Sanders's 16%, and Martin O'Malley's 9%. If Sanders continues to massively underperform his polls, the Democratic nomination could go to anyone, or end in a brokered convention.

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KANYE: I'LL RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2020 OR 2024

the New York Times, February 18, 2016

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Rapper Kanye West announced today that he will run for President in either 2020 or 2024, "depending on who wins this year." Mr. West made these comments in a talk given at the University of Maryland College Park as part of the promotional tour for the rapper's new album, The Life of Pablo, which will be released tomorrow. "America needs an innovator in the White House, and not like that Trump dude, he's a gold digger. No, we need someone with real ideas to run this country, and I think that's me."

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CRUZ, FIORINA, ROMNEY WIN BIG ON SUPER TUESDAY; BUSH, TRUMP LAG BEHIND

the Washington Post, March 1, 2016

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Mitt Romney celebrates winning 5 states on Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday was a big night for Republicans not named "Donald Trump." Mitt Romney won 5 states: Vermont, Alabama, Minnesota, Colorado, and Wyoming. Following a terrible debate performance last week, frontrunner Donald Trump only won one state: Massachusetts, which he actually tied with Romney in the delegate count.

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Ted Cruz celebrates victory in 3 states

Texas Senator Ted Cruz lost his home state to Jeb Bush 23%-22%, but he still took home 52 delegates to Bush's 54 (Ben Carson took 21% of the vote and 49 delegates). He also won Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, and leads the national delegate count.

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Carly Fiorina took 2 states

Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO, took the states of Georgia and Virginia, and is now in third place nationwide with regards to delegates (127); she is right on the heels of Ben Carson (who has 138 delegates), and is trailed closely by Mitt Romney, who has 117 delegates.

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Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Ben Carson all won delegates tonight (and Bush even won Texas and Alaska), but the upcoming primaries do not look favorable to them, and Rubio is said to be considering dropping out if he does not win Florida.

Now for the Democrats.

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Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, who won big while simultaneously losing

Former MD Gov. Martin O'Malley was tonight's big winner, even if he only won a primary (and tied Arkansas). For one, the primary he won was Texas, and he took it with nearly 50% of the vote, nearly double what Elizabeth Warren got, who came in second at 25%. He also tied the Arkansas primary with Sen. Sanders, and won a bunch of delegates even if he didn't win many primaries.

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Secretary of State Joe Biden won 4 states

Secretary Biden won Alabama, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Georgia, and now leads nationally in delegate counts. Bernie Sanders won 6 contests, but lags behind Biden in delegates (even as he leads in the polls).

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Bernie Has a Polling Problem

FiveThirtyEight, March 2, 2016

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Don't get us wrong. Bernie Sanders is still the Democratic frontrunner. He's currently polling at 36% nationally, to Joe Biden's 31%, Martin O'Malley's 18%, and Elizabeth Warren's 13%. But it seems like the disheveled Vermont Senator is constantly underperforming his polls. He was supposed to narrowly carry Texas, but he came in last place. He was supposed to win Georgia, and Alabama, and easily win Arkansas, but he lost the former two and tied the latter. It's possible that his base is conflicted between Sanders and Warren, which may be leading to the progressive vote being split and moderates like Biden and O'Malley triumphing; but that doesn't explain how O'Malley is vastly outperforming his polls (he beat his polling by 21 points in Texas). Whether this will continue to be a trend remains to be seen, but right now, the Democratic nomination is totally up in the air.

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Warren Drops Out

the Baltimore Sun, March 31, 2016

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren has dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination for President following a rather poor showing in recent primaries. She has not made any endorsement of a particular candidate, only saying that Democrats must "band together and support whoever's the nominee so that we stop the Republicans in November."

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WHEN WILL IT END?

New York Primary Fallout

the New York Post, April 21, 2016

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After the New York primary concluded, which businessman Donald Trump and Secretary of State Joe Biden won in their respective party's primaries, Jeb Bush dropped out and reluctantly endorsed Donald Trump. It is also now mathematically impossible for any Republican to be nominated on the first ballot, and a contested DNC looks more and more likely by the day. This is the messiest election in modern political memory, and America seems to be screaming out: when will it end?

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2016 RNC Ballots

(Majority = 1,237)

1st Ballot:

Trump: 736

Romney: 441

Cruz: 304

Fiorina: 242

Bush: 229

Carson: 213

Rubio: 182

Kasich: 125

 

2nd Ballot:

Trump: 736

Romney: 441

Cruz: 304

Fiorina: 242

Bush: 229 354

Carson: 213

Rubio: 182

Kasich: 125 removed, endorsed Bush

 

3rd Ballot:

Trump: 736

Romney: 441

Bush: 229 354 536

Cruz: 304

Fiorina: 242

Carson: 213

Rubio: 182 removed, endorsed Bush

 

4th Ballot:

Trump: 736

Bush: 229 354 536

Romney: 441

Cruz: 304

Fiorina: 242 455

Carson: 213 removed, endorsed Fiorina

 

5th Ballot:

Trump: 736

Bush: 229 354 536

Fiorina: 242 455 759

Romney: 441

Cruz: 304 removed, endorsed Fiorina

 

6th Ballot:

Fiorina: 242 455 759

Trump: 736

Bush: 229 354 536 997

Romney: 441 removed, endorsed Bush

 

7th Ballot:

Bush: 229 354 536 997 1,733

Fiorina: 242 455 759

Trump: 736 removed, endorsed Bush

 

Republican Nominees

For President: John Ellis "Jeb" Bush, former Governor of Florida

For Vice President: Paul LePage, Governor of Maine

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2016 DNC Ballots

(Majority = 2,383)

1st Ballot:

Sanders: 1,645

Biden: 1,502

O'Malley: 1,377

Warren: 241

 

2nd Ballot:

Sanders: 1,645

Biden: 1,502 1,743

O'Malley: 1,377

Warren: 241 removed, endorsed Joe Biden

 

3rd Ballot:

Biden: 1,502 1,743 3,120

Sanders: 1,645

O'Malley: 1,377 removed, endorsed Biden

 

Democratic Nominees

For President: Joe Biden, United States Secretary of State

For Vice President: Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York

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I did not expect Jeb!/LePage (what a terrible ticket) vs Biden/Cuomo (I like Biden, don't like Cuomo). I was Trump, I forgot to do debate prep and it cost me bigly. Now I'm Jeb!

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July 30, 2016

Bruce read the news on his phone as he rode the school bus home from CIY in Salisbury. There were still riots going on from Trump supporters, angry that the GOP had denied the populist candidate in favor of the establishment candidate. Another President Bush, just what everyone wants. Now, there are progressives protesting outside the Wells Fargo center in Philly. The Democrats had the super-progressive Sanders, the slightly less progressive but still staunchly left-wing Warren, and the solidly liberal O'Malley to choose from... and they picked moderate compromiser Joe Biden instead. And to add insult to the injury, they'd nominated corporatist extraordinaire Andrew Cuomo for VP, who acted like a moderate Republican sometimes. Neither party's base was terribly happy about either party's nominees. November 8th and the events leading up to it was going to be insane...

Bruce's friend John, who sat next to him on the bus, could see he was annoyed, so he handed him an earbud and said "listen to this, I think you'll like it. It's Chance's new mixtape."

"I'm doing something," Bruce said, "and plus I don't even listen to rap, or music made within this millennium for that matter."

"Try it, Bruce. It'll distract you from Jeb and Joe."

Bruce actually did like it, a lot. He'd always had an appreciation for the piano, violin, vocals that weren't overproduced, and lyrics with meaning and substance.

But whatever respite he took in the music was short-lived. When they got off the bus, Bruce immediately went back to reading FiveThirtyEight. It felt like the nation was falling apart before his eyes.

But hey, at least it's not Trump vs. O'Malley.

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33 minutes ago, Kingthero said:

So Jeb drops out, but still wins. Hmmmm

I'm sure Trump voters are totally OK with that, especially since Jeb came in last place in the popular vote and Trump came in first

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Just now, President Garrett Walker said:

Uhhh Washington and Oregon are lean Republican

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Washington seems to go Republican in a lot of 21st Century games played through that I've seen. It might be a bug that needs addressing. @admin_270

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Debates

Biden won the first debate

Cuomo won the VP debate

Biden won the second debate

Biden won the third debate

 

None of the debates had much of a meaningful impact on polling.

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Election Night 2016

6:00 PM

Bruce, a janitor at his church, had to work on Election Night. Thankfully, he was allowed to listen to the NBC News livestream in the Twitter app while he went about his job. Lester Holt's flat voice announced the state of the race.

"We're getting the first results out of Indiana and Kentucky, with only 2% reporting in both, Bush leads."

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9:00 PM

"Bush has taken Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina, and his home state of Florida. An unexpectedly strong showing for Green Party nominee Jill Stein in Virginia (6%) has doomed Biden from the start."

Huh. Jill Stein, Green Party crackpot, won 6% of the vote in Virginia? Must be the progressive protest vote.

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9:30 PM

"We can now call Ohio and West Virginia for Jeb Bush."

Bruce cringed. That was early. Biden's only won one state thus far...

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10:00 PM

"Joe Biden has won Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, his home state of Delaware, DC, and Illinois. Jeb Bush has won New Hampshire, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and South Dakota. Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are all too close to call at this time."

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10:30 PM

"Michigan and Arkansas can be called for Jeb Bush. North Carolina is much too close to call right now, with only 4,000 separating the two candidates right now."

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11:00 PM

"Joe Biden has won New York, Rhode Island, and New Jersey. Jeb Bush has taken Wisconsin, Louisiana, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, New Mexico (despite a strong showing from Gary Johnson), and Arizona. Minnesota and Colorado are too close to call."

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12:00 AM

"Jeb Bush's running mate's home state of Maine has been called for Bush, putting him at 271 electoral votes, which is 1 more than necessary to be elected President. Jeb Bush will be the 47th President of the United States. He has also won Pennsylvania, Iowa, North Dakota, Colorado, Montana, Idaho, and Utah. Nevada and Oregon are too close to call."

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Final Results of the 2016 Elections

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Popular vote:

Bush/LePage: 76,539,375, 52.2%

Biden/Cuomo: 66,433,810, 45.3%

Stein/Baraka: 2,135,624, 1.5%

Johnson/Weld: 1,692,863, 1.2%

 

Congress

House:

Republicans: 252 (up 4)

Democrats: 183 (down 4)

Speaker: Marsha Blackburn

Senate:

Republicans: 59 (up 3)

Democrats: 41 (down 3)

Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell

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Cabinet, 2017

President: Jeb Bush

Vice President: Paul LePage

Secretary of State: Nikki Haley

Secretary of Treasury: Carly Fiorina

Secretary of Defense: James Mattis

Attorney General: Marco Rubio

Secretary of the Interior: Ryan Zinke

Secretary of Agriculture: Joni Ernst

Secretary of Commerce: Donald Trump

Secretary of Labor: Alex Acosta

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Ben Carson

Secretary of Education: Paul Ryan

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: J. C. Watts

Secretary of Transportation: Elaine Chao

Secretary of Energy: Rex Tillerson

Secretary of Veteran's Affairs: David Shulkin

Secretary of Homeland Security: Elaine Duke

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