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UK General Election Poll 2017

UK General Election 2017  

31 members have voted

  1. 1. Who are you backing in the UK election in June?

    • Conservatives
    • Labour
    • UKIP
    • Lib Dems
    • Greens
      0
    • SNP
      0
    • Plaid Cymru
      0
    • SDLP
      0
    • Sinn Fein
      0
    • DUP
      0
    • UUP
      0
    • Alliance
      0
    • BNP
      0
    • Monster Raving Loony
    • Other
      0
  2. 2. Who do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

    • Theresa May
    • Jeremy Corbyn
    • Tim Farron
    • Paul Nuttal
    • Caroline Lucas
    • Howling Laud Hope


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Sky News has forecasted 315-325.  With Sinn Fein, which has gained seats, abstaining, the Tories look like they will be able to form a majority coalition with the DUP.

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There are more UKIP supporters in this forum than there are in the UK. They're having a terrible night. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

There are more UKIP supporters in this forum than there are in the UK. They're having a terrible night. 

What is really surprising is how the UKIP vote from 2015 has really been split between the Tories and Labor.  Most thought that the Tories had that vote locked up, but this is probably one of the biggest reasons why tonight vote is turning out like it is.  Nigel Farage has even suggested possibly re-entering UKIP leadership.

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What is surprising me is how much UKIP is going down in their strong constituencies.  Paul Nuttall's result, South Thanet, and Clacton where very surprising because I was expecting a much better result for UKIP in those areas. 

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24 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

What is surprising me is how much UKIP is going down in their strong constituencies.  Paul Nuttall's result, South Thanet, and Clacton where very surprising because I was expecting a much better result for UKIP in those areas. 

I think UKIP might be a personality cult around Farage, that cannot last without him. 

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4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I think UKIP might be a personality cult around Farage, that cannot last without him. 

It looks like that is the case for those who jumped onto UKIP in 2015 did it for Farage.  That may be why he put him rejoining UKIP leadership as a possibility.  It is kind of like the situation with Ross Perot voters.

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So what happens now that the Parliament is hung?! Will May go the way of Cameron?

(I'm not terribly familiar with British politics, though I would like to become more familiar)

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2 hours ago, President Garrett Walker said:

So what happens now that the Parliament is hung?! Will May go the way of Cameron?

(I'm not terribly familiar with British politics, though I would like to become more familiar)

Ok two things might happen: a coalition, or a new election. The most likely coalition- at the time of writing- is the DUP and Conservatives. Granted, who knows what provisions the DUP will ask for in return to be in the government (I think the first Irish party since the 1800s). Labour, lib Dems, and SNP simply do not have enough seats to make a majority. If the DUP and Conservatives can't reach a consensus on what the agenda for the next Parliament, another election will be called. 

 

If the latter happens, I doubt May will remain party leader. 

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34 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

Ok two things might happen: a coalition, or a new election. The most likely coalition- at the time of writing- is the DUP and Conservatives. Granted, who knows what provisions the DUP will ask for in return to be in the government (I think the first Irish party since the 1800s). Labour, lib Dems, and SNP simply do not have enough seats to make a majority. If the DUP and Conservatives can't reach a consensus on what the agenda for the next Parliament, another election will be called. 

 

If the latter happens, I doubt May will remain party leader. 

Actually, the UUP was in several mid-20th Century British Governments, but was rarely outright mentioned due to being considered "politically subservient to the Conservative and practically an Irish branch of the Tories" in that day and age, and in those governments, UUP seats were extraneous as the Tories didn't need them at those times to actually achieve a majority. That would definitely NOT be true of the DUP.

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May has asked the Queen to be able to form the next government.  What will probably happen is  Tory-DUP coalition.  One main thing that would probably get promised would be the status of the Irish border.

Paul Nuttall has resigned as UKIP leader.  And with Nigel Farage's resent comments, maybe he will return as leader.

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12 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

What is really surprising is how the UKIP vote from 2015 has really been split between the Tories and Labor.  Most thought that the Tories had that vote locked up, but this is probably one of the biggest reasons why tonight vote is turning out like it is.  Nigel Farage has even suggested possibly re-entering UKIP leadership.

Probably there are some folks who are voting based on anxieties surrounding their economic circumstances and for whom a populist appeal from the left *or* the right is more convincing than an appeal from the establishment-friendly center-left or center-right. They might fear that immigration will cost them their jobs and/or see the EU as a distant institution that doesn't have their interests in mind, but at the same time favor government intervention in the economy and more spending on services like the NHS. Both UKIP and a more aggressively social democratic Labour might be more appealing to them than a mainstream Tory like Cameron or May.

And there is a significant Euroskeptic left - in some ways Corbyn himself is probably sympathetic to that view even though he supported the Remain campaign. If some of them had voted UKIP in 2015 and Leave in 2016, they may see the issue as settled - Britain is leaving the EU and it's now safe to go back to voting Labour.

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Also, I have to say that quite a few UK politicians have proven surprisingly inept at reading the political tea leaves. Tony Blair didn't seem to realize the extent to which Iraq would become an albatross around his neck, David Cameron pretty much ended his career by betting that the Remain side would win the referendum, and Theresa May just threw away the first Conservative majority since 1997. Jeremy Corbyn wouldn't have even qualified for the Labour leadership contest except that some MPs signed his ballot papers with the assumption that he couldn't possibly win. The Lib Dems may turn out to have been permanently wounded by their 2010-15 coalition with the Tories, as their "recovery" has proven modest at best (and this at a time when they could run on Brexit as a hot-button issue). 

I suppose Gordon Brown's problem was more lack of personal charisma and people just being tired of Labour after 13 years than any one single political miscalculation, though the 2007 Election That Wasn't probably couldn't have gone much *worse* for Labour than the 2010 election did.

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3 hours ago, RI Democrat said:

Also, I have to say that quite a few UK politicians have proven surprisingly inept at reading the political tea leaves. Tony Blair didn't seem to realize the extent to which Iraq would become an albatross around his neck, David Cameron pretty much ended his career by betting that the Remain side would win the referendum, and Theresa May just threw away the first Conservative majority since 1997. Jeremy Corbyn wouldn't have even qualified for the Labour leadership contest except that some MPs signed his ballot papers with the assumption that he couldn't possibly win. The Lib Dems may turn out to have been permanently wounded by their 2010-15 coalition with the Tories, as their "recovery" has proven modest at best (and this at a time when they could run on Brexit as a hot-button issue). 

I suppose Gordon Brown's problem was more lack of personal charisma and people just being tired of Labour after 13 years than any one single political miscalculation, though the 2007 Election That Wasn't probably couldn't have gone much *worse* for Labour than the 2010 election did.

This is just further proof of how trying to take advantage of something politically can easily backfire.  The Tories has a huge lead, called an election, and blew it.  When the referendum passed Parliament, Remain grew to a sizeable lead.  But, the polls closed and leave won.

3 hours ago, RI Democrat said:

Probably there are some folks who are voting based on anxieties surrounding their economic circumstances and for whom a populist appeal from the left *or* the right is more convincing than an appeal from the establishment-friendly center-left or center-right. They might fear that immigration will cost them their jobs and/or see the EU as a distant institution that doesn't have their interests in mind, but at the same time favor government intervention in the economy and more spending on services like the NHS. Both UKIP and a more aggressively social democratic Labour might be more appealing to them than a mainstream Tory like Cameron or May.

And there is a significant Euroskeptic left - in some ways Corbyn himself is probably sympathetic to that view even though he supported the Remain campaign. If some of them had voted UKIP in 2015 and Leave in 2016, they may see the issue as settled - Britain is leaving the EU and it's now safe to go back to voting Labour.

It is interesting how the outside was Corbyn in this year.  It is really the first prominent showing by someone on the populist left recently.

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I'd actually disagree re: the populist left. Both Spain and France have had their (actually fairly moderate) Socialist parties lose ground to more radical or populist left groupings - Podemos in Spain, and Jean-Luc Melenchon's party in France. Sinn Fein have replaced Labour as the largest left-of-center party in Ireland. And I'm not sure if it's exactly an example of populism, but in the Netherlands, I think the Socialists are further left than - and now ahead of - Labour, plus there was the surprisingly strong showing by the GreenLeft.

It hasn't been as stark as the emergence of the nationalist right, but alternative left-leaning parties do seem to be gaining at the expense of more established center-left parties. 

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4 hours ago, RI Democrat said:

Probably there are some folks who are voting based on anxieties surrounding their economic circumstances and for whom a populist appeal from the left *or* the right is more convincing than an appeal from the establishment-friendly center-left or center-right. They might fear that immigration will cost them their jobs and/or see the EU as a distant institution that doesn't have their interests in mind, but at the same time favor government intervention in the economy and more spending on services like the NHS. Both UKIP and a more aggressively social democratic Labour might be more appealing to them than a mainstream Tory like Cameron or May.

And there is a significant Euroskeptic left - in some ways Corbyn himself is probably sympathetic to that view even though he supported the Remain campaign. If some of them had voted UKIP in 2015 and Leave in 2016, they may see the issue as settled - Britain is leaving the EU and it's now safe to go back to voting Labour.

corbyn is a flip flopper.

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12 hours ago, Patine said:

Actually, the UUP was in several mid-20th Century British Governments, but was rarely outright mentioned due to being considered "politically subservient to the Conservative and practically an Irish branch of the Tories" in that day and age, and in those governments, UUP seats were extraneous as the Tories didn't need them at those times to actually achieve a majority. That would definitely NOT be true of the DUP.

Are the dup for brexit?

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On 5/24/2017 at 5:47 PM, koneke said:

The UKIP folks, should vote Labour if the Tories follow a globalist agenda. That'd spread fear into the Tory party and is absolutely necessary if Brits wants to stop one-world government

 no they should have for ukip labour is lead by a fake outsider globalist.

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On 5/30/2017 at 11:13 AM, RI Democrat said:

I actually don't think Trump is going to get his wall built. Not enough Republicans care enough about it to want to spend the money.

he can do what obama did and do with eo.

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13 hours ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

Ok two things might happen: a coalition, or a new election. The most likely coalition- at the time of writing- is the DUP and Conservatives. Granted, who knows what provisions the DUP will ask for in return to be in the government (I think the first Irish party since the 1800s). Labour, lib Dems, and SNP simply do not have enough seats to make a majority. If the DUP and Conservatives can't reach a consensus on what the agenda for the next Parliament, another election will be called. 

 

If the latter happens, I doubt May will remain party leader. 

that might get the tory majority back next election because i am sure a leaver will become the next leader (most likely boris johnson))

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12 hours ago, Patine said:

Actually, the UUP was in several mid-20th Century British Governments, but was rarely outright mentioned due to being considered "politically subservient to the Conservative and practically an Irish branch of the Tories" in that day and age, and in those governments, UUP seats were extraneous as the Tories didn't need them at those times to actually achieve a majority. That would definitely NOT be true of the DUP.

do they have coalitions in government in canada?

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On 5/30/2017 at 10:47 PM, wolves said:

Most projection sites still have them on a huge majority though. The polls are closing but the Garden Tax has just been announced as a new possible scandal for Labour so hold on and see if that does anything. 10 days left.

No, if he did that he'd be stupid. Set the party into further electoral oblivion.

not if farage come back!

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14 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

I'd actually disagree re: the populist left. Both Spain and France have had their (actually fairly moderate) Socialist parties lose ground to more radical or populist left groupings - Podemos in Spain, and Jean-Luc Melenchon's party in France. Sinn Fein have replaced Labour as the largest left-of-center party in Ireland. And I'm not sure if it's exactly an example of populism, but in the Netherlands, I think the Socialists are further left than - and now ahead of - Labour, plus there was the surprisingly strong showing by the GreenLeft.

It hasn't been as stark as the emergence of the nationalist right, but alternative left-leaning parties do seem to be gaining at the expense of more established center-left parties. 

Corbyn, as an outsider, took hold of an insider party and branded a message that got people out and successfully split the UKIP vote with the Tories.  That easily is the most significant populist move on the Left.  The Socialist Party was largely replaced by En Marche.  Melenchon lost and his coalition has not stayed steady for the legislative elections.  In the Netherlands, the Greens, while gaining, didn't have nearly the same success as Corbyn.  Plus, they might join a government with the center-right party.  And, I would classify them as populist.  In Spain, the leading left party is still establishment.  Corbyn's was more significant.  In Ireland, the Labor Party was never very significant.  So, passing them isn't much of a victory.  If Sinn Fein gets into the top 2, as it almost happened before their polls kind of collapsed near the end, then they can be in this conversation.

14 minutes ago, Presidentinsertname said:

Are the dup for brexit?

Yes. The DUP has been a Eursceptic Party and was the major backer for Leave in NI.

19 minutes ago, Presidentinsertname said:

anyone think they were some voter fraud?

I think the Russians hacked the ballots in order to destabilize Brexit negotiations. :P

Anyway, I doubt it.  The Tories ran an very bad campaign, and Labor was able to connect to the people more, especially the former UKIPers.

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kind make you wonder how the hell someone could fuck up this badly when you have start with a 20 point leads (basic me in everything 270 soft game i play.)) i mean to to make it look like to win a landslide (my 1920 when i ended up losing the pv and barely winning the ec as republican)).

 

btw wtf how did diana abbot majority increase i am calling voter fraud there is no way ANYONE WHO IS SANE after a terrorist attack would vote for her she is the dumbest person if you re left or right you should agree with the fact that abbot is dumb and i am starting questioning her mental health.

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37 minutes ago, Presidentinsertname said:

he can do what obama did and do with eo.

That's not how appropriations or executive orders work.

Besides, just because you sign an executive order doesn't mean it'll happen (in this context); for reference, see Obama's executive order closing Gitmo.

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