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WIP - 2040 Scenario?


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With some suggestions from @Bruce Fischer, we decided to make a 2040 presidential election scenario, with us as independent candidates running on a ticket together.

Things have changed in the 24 years after a tumultuous 2016 election.

In 2020, Trump was challenged in the primaries by former Senator Ted Cruz, who lost his seat in 2018. Trump easily defeated Cruz (who was reviled in his party for losing what looked like an easily winnable race in Texas) and him and Pence were renominated. The general election saw a massive rebuke of Trump by the electorate as multiple scandals emerged after he won the primaries.

Cory Booker wins his party's nomination and shockingly picks John Bel Edwards, a conservative Democrat, as his VP. With strong appeal to independents and significant regional balance Booker easily defeats Trump, but Libertarian Austin Petersen reached 5.6% of the vote, qualifying the Libertarians for matching funds though they did not carry a state. (They reached 18% in Alaska, however.) Trump barely carried Texas 46.2 - 46.0.

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(I don't want to go into excessive detail because I have 5 elections to go through before 2040)

Booker and Edwards were renominated without significant opposition after a fairly generic term in office that saw some scuffles abroad but nothing major (yet). Austin Petersen is nominated a second time by the Libertarians and is polling strongly. Cruz attempts to run again and is soundly defeated. (You will notice a pattern of this.) Having learned from 2020, the GOP restructures itself to be more of the general center-right party it was before Trump, nominating a moderate slate of Larry Hogan/John Kasich. The race was close throughout, and Petersen polled very close to 15% but only hit it in a few polls and was barely excluded from the debates. Calls to change debate rules were more prevalent than ever but the major candidates generally avoided mentioning Petersen. Hogan very narrowly defeated Booker, and Petersen came within 8% of winning Alaska.

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2026 saw a great year for third parties as two Libertarians were elected: Petersen to Missouri's 6th Congressional District and Rob Paul (son of Rand Paul, who would switch to the Libertarians simultaneously with his son) to Kentucky-02.

Hogan remained a popular and moderate President. He ran for a second term in 2028, facing Ted Cruz of course (who by this point reached 4% of the national popular vote and won no states) and won nomination easily. The Democrats picked Kirsten Gillibrand/Chris Murphy. With a popular incumbent and two challengers from already safe Democratic states Hogan won reelection easily.

Libertarians urged Rand Paul to run but got Petersen/Rob Paul for the first incumbent politicians to be nominated by the Libertarians. They picked up conservative voters disgusted with the moderate presidency of Hogan and some Democrats bored of their options. They took 18% of the vote, falling short of Perot but having been invited to the debates. They won Alaska while Hogan got a landslide everywhere else. Petersen and Paul were allowed to keep their House seats thanks to convenient state laws but Petersen vowed never to run again, as he had run three times already and decided to continue in the House.

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2032, with Hogan term-limited and Kasich too old, there's an open field. The Republicans pick Tom Cotton and Cory Gardner for a grizzled 50-year-old men team, while the Democrats picked Senator Joe Kennedy and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. The Libertarians had Rob Paul paired up with Justin Amash (who recently switched to the Libertarians). The race was extremely close, and Kennedy narrowly prevailed in both the popular and electoral vote. The Libertarian ticket did not campaign in Alaska as actively as Petersen did, aiming for a win in Kentucky or a bigger state, but lost Kentucky 40 (R) - 32 (L) - 26 (D).

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The Senate is split 51-49 in favor of the Republicans, and the Democrats hold the House 220-215 with the three Libertarians - Petersen, Paul, Amash - caucusing with the majority (now the Democrats).

In 2036, the Democrats renominate President Kennedy and VP Gabbard, while the Republicans nominate Gardner/David Mitt Romney (US Rep from Utah). The Libertarians nominate Rob Paul AGAIN, but with David Koch Jr. as VP. The race is very close and all three spent heavily. Neither candidate got to 270 for the first time since 1824, and the House picked Kennedy. The Libertarians won both Kentucky and Alaska which was seen as greatly increasing their national visibility, as it was the first time ever they won a state that wasn't Alaska.

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Some things that will be in the 2040 scenario:

-70 year old Ted Cruz making his 5th attempt to run for President (he skipped 2032 to run for the House and lost)

-Chelsea Clinton, now a Senator from New York, running.

-Rep. Rob Paul, Libertarian vice-presidential nominee in 2028, and presidential nominee in 2032 and 2036, running as a Libertarian.

-Ivanka Trump running as a third-party, disappointed by the Republican's shift away from her father's policies.

-A Lagsalott/Fischer or Fischer/Lagsalott independent ticket, with me as the Governor-turned Senator of Virginia and him as the Representative-turned Governor of Maryland.

-Malia Obama?????????

Here are some really early screenshots I made, in the first one playing as Lagsalott/Fischer (going up against candidates that had all 1's for attributes) and in the second one playing Ivanka Trump/Eric Trump. Lagsalott/Fischer ticket starts out leading in Maryland and Virginia with around 10% nationally, Trump ticket starts out leading nowhere with 5% of the vote.

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Suggestions and feedback welcome! If @Reagan04 wants to be a Republican candidate let me know. And anyone else, too.

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YESSSSSSSS, HOGAN 2024!!!

Looks good, what about Kirsten Gillibrand/Tulsi Gabbard vs. Tom Cotton/Cory Gardner in 2032?

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Kentucky has a law which doesn't allow a person to run in 2 elections which will appear on the ballot at the same time.  So, you might want to post a small summary of how that was changed.

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11 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Kentucky has a law which doesn't allow a person to run in 2 elections which will appear on the ballot at the same time.  So, you might want to post a small summary of how that was changed.

 

41 minutes ago, SirLagsalott said:

Petersen and Paul were allowed to keep their House seats thanks to convenient state laws but Petersen vowed never to run again, saying his job had been done and would continue in the House.

I brushed over it really quickly but yeah, both Pauls lobbied to change that.

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36 minutes ago, Bruce Fischer said:

YESSSSSSSS, HOGAN 2024!!!

Looks good, what about Kirsten Gillibrand/Tulsi Gabbard vs. Tom Cotton/Cory Gardner in 2032?

Thought you'd like that :)

Sure, I'll make the map and story tomorrow. Maybe not with Gillibrand though considering she got destroyed in 2028.

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Just now, SirLagsalott said:

 

I brushed over it really quickly but yeah, both Pauls lobbied to change that.

Which has actually happened (Rand has), and would probably be successful now that the Republicans not only control both branches but have supermajorities.

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14 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Which has actually happened (Rand has), and would probably be successful now that the Republicans not only control both branches but have supermajorities.

I completely forgot to mention Congress. What is wrong with me. They're going to have a near supermajority in the Senate thanks to the rebranding of the party and Hogan's coattails, and around 240 House seats. Though if anyone inserts themselves as politicians that can change.

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4 minutes ago, SirLagsalott said:

I completely forgot to mention Congress. What is wrong with me. They're going to have a near supermajority in the Senate thanks to the rebranding of the party and Hogan's coattails, and around 240 House seats. Though if anyone inserts themselves as politicians that can change.

I don't know. I personally believe unless you're going with off-the-deep end fictional futures and political layouts and fictitious candidates, like my 2048 scenario series, I'm not sure it'll work right. But that's just my opinion (and advice, to a degree).

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9 hours ago, Bruce Fischer said:

Looks good, what about Kirsten Gillibrand/Tulsi Gabbard vs. Tom Cotton/Cory Gardner in 2032?

Done. But Gillibrand is now Joe Kennedy (Gillibrand's crushing defeat in 2028 made her quickly lose reputation within the party).

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10 hours ago, SirLagsalott said:

Suggestions and feedback welcome! If @Reagan04 wants to be a Republican candidate let me know. And anyone else, too.

 

I would love to be one! A Southern Governor or Senator. I plan on moving away from MD.

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1 hour ago, SalmonD88 said:

I"d love to be governor of Iowa, but preferably a democrat or third party if possible.

I can put you in as Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Green, or Independent. Just need general position. Do you want to be a presidential candidate/VP?

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Put me in as the socially left, economically centrist, Republican mayor of NY. I know I'm I wasn't born in America, but neither was Ted Cruz or Obama.

 

Sounds fun, keep working on it!

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1 hour ago, LegolasRedbard said:

Put me in as the socially left, economically centrist, Republican mayor of NY. I know I'm I wasn't born in America, but neither was Ted Cruz or Obama.

Will you be going with one of your parents was an American citizen at your birth which would make you a US citizen immediately?

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15 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Will you be going with one of your parents was an American citizen at your birth which would make you a US citizen immediately?

Yeah, that'll do

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3 hours ago, wolves said:

interesting. slot me into ohio tbh as an independent but with centre right stances on everything but trade.

Senator or Governor? Will you be a candidate? (And what is your position on trade, but that only matters if you're a candidate)

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Just now, SirLagsalott said:

Senator or Governor? Will you be a candidate? (And what is your position on trade, but that only matters if you're a candidate)

Going by the definitions shown in the official 2016 scenario. Left wing on trade also senator.

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Just now, wolves said:

Going by the definitions shown in the official 2016 scenario. Left wing on trade also senator.

Also, are you a candidate or just an endorser. 

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5 hours ago, SirLagsalott said:

I can put you in as Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Green, or Independent. Just need general position. Do you want to be a presidential candidate/VP?

Democrat presidential candidate please. I'd say center-left.

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No idea what image to use for most of you, but for @wolves and @LegolasRedbard I'm going with forum pictures.

I don't know what image to use for @SalmonD88 or @jvikings1 because Salmon has no forum image and Jvikings is the GOP logo (and that would be a little out of place for a Libertarian candidate).

For @Bruce Fischer I'm going to stick with the Emmanuel Macron winking picture... for reasons.

Also Salmon, what is your gender? Everyone else has it in their forum profile but it's one of the things needed in the game for some reason.

Need positions for JVikings1 too.

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11 hours ago, SirLagsalott said:

Any state in particular?

Yes, I'll be a Former Senator and Incumbent Governor of Georgia. Rather Right Winged (Center-to-Right Econ, Semi-Isolationist/Center-right Foreign, and Far-Right Socially) and use this picture: 

Adrian.PNG

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