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Reagan04

20(4?) years of Chafing

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49 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

October 19th, 2004

With about 2 weeks to go into the campaign, the Democrats are in shambles, polling with about 37% nationally and being demolished by the state level, the Braun/Kerrey ticket has buried the party with endless scandal and dreadful debates. The Chafee/Pataki ticket enjoys a projected 520 electoral votes and 57% of the electorate. 

(I'm going to bed, final results tomorrow, just ask for any particular race, Presidential or otherwise that you'd like to hear specific polls for!)

MD Senate race?

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19 hours ago, Bruce Fischer said:

MD Senate race?

That is showing to be a Democratic hold with Barbara Mikulski projected to win about 54% of the vote, however, Governor Pataki has been campaigning there for Vaughn (Again, primary wave) who holds about 40%. For perspective, Senator Chafee is leading 48-44 in MD. Vaughn's ethnicity is keeping him competitive in important countries and cities.

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11 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

That is showing to be a Democratic hold with Barbara Mikulski projected to win about 54% of the vote, however, Governor Pataki has been campaigning there for Vaughn (Again, primary wave) who holds about 40%. For perspective, Senator Chafee is leading 48-44 in MD. Vaughn's ethnicity is keeping him competitive in important countries and cities.

NY senate race?

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Just now, republicaninnyc said:

NY senate race?

Now this is a crazy one, the Chafee campaign is heavily funding this one (Yes they are pulling a Rob Portman). Mills is currently carrying 36% with Schumer at 54% but falling fast with the Governor campaigning a lot for Mills.

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6 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

Now this is a crazy one, the Chafee campaign is heavily funding this one (Yes they are pulling a Rob Portman). Mills is currently carrying 36% with Schumer at 54% but falling fast with the Governor campaigning a lot for Mills.

NY 15th U.S house want to see how that's going:P

that was the most democratic house district in 2004

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7 minutes ago, republicaninnyc said:

NY 15th U.S house want to see how that's going:P

that was the most democratic house district in 2004

that was a joke post

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2 hours ago, republicaninnyc said:

NY 15th U.S house want to see how that's going:P

that was the most democratic house district in 2004

 

 

2 hours ago, republicaninnyc said:

that was a joke post

I am keeping track of the House though, NY-15 is 83-14. Chafee is almost winning in Manhattan.

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October 26th, 2004

Elections are coming in hot. With one week to go, it looks like the GOP will walk away with supermajorities in the Federal and State levels. They are leading in every Governor's race and seem to be picking up many State Legislatures and seats in the House and Senate as well as the big seat in the Oval Office. The Chafee/Pataki ticket are darting around New England campaigning in Vermont and Massachusetts hoping for a 50 state sweep, even doing well in DC looking at a possible 20%.
 

(Election Night will be a big extravaganza of me calling State-by-State races in this order:

  1. President
  2. Senate (If any)
  3. House
  4. Governor (If any)
  5. State Legislature )

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2 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

What was the start date for the scenario?

August 2003. Also, I will not be doing results tonight, sorry, Just didn't have the time, though tomorrow being Friday I will definitely get them. The format will be like this:

7 PM POLLS CLOSING: LIST OF STATES (EVERYTIME APPLICABLE)

 

STATE (ONE PER POST)

Politics chatter

POTUS EV PROJECTION + MAP

Politics Chatter

SENATE PROJECTION + MAP

Politics Chatter

HOR DELEGATION PROJECTION + MAP

Politics Chatter

GOVERNOR + MAP

Politics Chatter

LEGISLATURE + MAP ( If I can find one)

RECAP OF CURRENT STANDINGS AFTER THAT STATE.

Move to next post, (Yes that means this will be a 50 post election or possibly a few more for thematics, I am pretty excited and I hope yall are too for a great marathon tomorrow!)

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A nice marathon will be just the thing to ease the pain of an AP test tomorrow, AP European History. 

Chafee would probably get a perfect score, if his love for European standards of measurement is any indication ;)

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1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

August 2003

Did the 2003 governor elections end with the same results as in real life?

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5 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Did the 2003 governor elections end with the same results as in real life?

Yes Fletcher is still the Governor. I'm keeping everything up to the 2004 general as canon.

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Just now, CalebsParadox said:

A nice marathon will be just the thing to ease the pain of an AP test tomorrow, AP European History. 

Chafee would probably get a perfect score, if his love for European standards of measurement is any indication ;)

Nice. I tried to take AP Euro this year, but the guidance councilors screwed up the scheduling process.  I was booted out because I decided to stay in my duel credit English class instead.  But, I was allowed to teach Brexit a couple weeks ago.  Today, I took the AP State exam and felt pretty good about it.

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Just now, jvikings1 said:

Nice. I tried to take AP Euro this year, but the guidance councilors screwed up the scheduling process.  I was booted out because I decided to stay in my duel credit English class instead.  But, I was allowed to teach Brexit a couple weeks ago.  Today, I took the AP State exam and felt pretty good about it.

You took Stats as well? I am not very good with math and our teacher wasn't very interested, so I didn't get much out of it. I feel I got maybe 65% of the questions right, but that's more so through reasoning than through any actual knowledge. I still don't actually know how to find anything on the T-Table nor confidence intervals, or hypothesis testing, Chi Squared... :P Two of the FRQs were super easy tho. The wolf one and dig site I'm pretty certain I got full credit for, the others not so much. 

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Just now, CalebsParadox said:

You took Stats as well? I am not very good with math and our teacher wasn't very interested, so I didn't get much out of it. I feel I got maybe 65% of the questions right, but that's more so through reasoning than through any actual knowledge. I still don't actually know how to find anything on the T-Table nor confidence intervals, or hypothesis testing, Chi Squared... :P Two of the FRQs were super easy tho. The wolf one and dig site I'm pretty certain I got full credit for, the others not so much. 

I will PM you so we can continue to talk about this without highjacking @Reagan04's thread.

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1 minute ago, jvikings1 said:

I will PM you so we can continue to talk about this without highjacking @Reagan04's thread.

@Reagan04 Sorry!

I'm totally looking forward to the updates dude, keep it coming! It's been an awesome play-by-play!

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33 minutes ago, CalebsParadox said:

You took Stats as well? I am not very good with math and our teacher wasn't very interested, so I didn't get much out of it. I feel I got maybe 65% of the questions right, but that's more so through reasoning than through any actual knowledge. I still don't actually know how to find anything on the T-Table nor confidence intervals, or hypothesis testing, Chi Squared... :P Two of the FRQs were super easy tho. The wolf one and dig site I'm pretty certain I got full credit for, the others not so much. 

Oh God this stresses me out, I have a stat final on Tuesday :P

@Reagan04 looking forward to the post marathon tomorrow! #feelthechafe

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(The time has come folks, @Bruce Fischer, @CalebsParadox, @jvikings1, and @republicaninnyc ) Also, unfortunately, I couldn't find an accurate 2004 interactive a colorable House map, so we are just going to use our imaginations. A usable one will start in 2012 when we get there, ENJOY!

November 2nd, 2004

---- 8 AM ----

Hello, and welcome to the Data Desk, I am your host, Brett Bear. Let us look first at our polls as they open and later close in about 12 hours. Currently, the only state Ambassador Braun holds a lead in is Massachusetts, where she leads Senator Chafee 48-44. Her lead in DC is diminishing as well as it falls to 65-18, nevertheless, she is projected for a win in DC, with MA being a tossup. The Chafee/Pataki ticket have taken today to do some final barnstorming here in Massachusetts, then the Governor will fly home to Albany to vote and rendevous with the Senator in Warwick, Rhode Island for the official viewing party. Senator Kerrey and Ambassador Braun will be spending the election night like they did the campaign, apart. They were a cold ticket and that is often said to be a large part of their precipitous fall when paired against the dynamic and fun Chafee/Pataki ticket.

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Indiana

Welcome to the first call of the night, which is an easy victory for the Republicans in Indiana!

2004INPrez.PNG

 

We see strong support for GOP across the state, outperforming Reagan in the Industrial areas even winning Deep Blue Lake County, this does not bode well for the Democrats hoping to hold on to the Governor's Mansion and the Senate seat, as well as possibly opening up a few seats in the UHSOR for the Republicans and the State Legislature.

This is a tight race against popular incumbent Evan Bayh, however, he is facing popular Desegregation icon Marvin Scott who is pulled many black voters to the Republican side, This could be his ticket to victory.

We can now call that race for Marvin Scott!

INSenate2004.PNG

After that close shave, we turn to the House race. We see 3 incumbent Democrats with the 4th Dem in danger just hanging on in the 1st district 51-48. (HOUSE MAPS START 2012!)

Now, we look to state politics, Indiana is one of the states with a Gubernatorial race, this race has polled well for the GOP, it looks like Mitch Daniels will take the cake. INGov2004.PNG

 

Now that the smoke has cleared in our first call, we can see Industrial, Farm, and Bible Belt, areas all coming together for a Grand Old Coalition, this election is sure to be an exciting one, if not for just half of the country. We can also confirm that the GOP holds control of the IN legislature increasing their margins in both houses to supermajorities. We are talking re-forming a bigger Reagan Coalition, the Chafee coalition.

 

 

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(WEW, that took effort, but I loved it, this will be a marathon and a half, I'll back in a few hours for the next couple states, no way will I finish this election tonight!)

Standings

President: Chafee: 11     Braun 0

Senate: Republicans: 37     Democrats: 29

House: Republicans 8       Democrats: 1

Governors: Republicans: 24 Democrats: 16

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I LOVE IT KEEP IT UP

In this election I would vote for Carol Moseley Braun because I admire her a lot but I wouldn't mind if Chafee won because I also admire the metric system :P

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1 minute ago, Bruce Fischer said:

I LOVE IT KEEP IT UP

In this election I would vote for Carol Moseley Braun because I admire her a lot but I wouldn't mind if Chafee won because I also admire the metric system :P

The metric system is great. I can't imagine having to deal with the counter-intuitive, inconsistent, idiosyncratic Imperial system in all of my weights and measures endeavours.

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Kentucky

We can now make some more projections in this 2004 General election! The next up being KY, another sweep for the GOP!

KY2004Prez.PNG

This shows a clear shift in Kentucky politics toward the Republicans and definitely for Coal Workers as a whole. Now we turn to the Senate, this was an interesting race, Ultraconservative Senator Jim Bunning was given a run for his money by moderate Dan Mongiardo, but in the end, the Chafee wave crushed Mongiardo under its impressive weight.

KY2004Senate.PNG

 

As we turn to the House we see 5 Republican-dominated races and 1 race that could go either way. KY-6 is an open district located in  Central Kentucky and is extremely close at this moment, however, it does appear the Republican, Tom Buford, is edging away and we are ready to award him the race! Again, this 6-0 sweep shows a defined move in Kentucky politics. Which, speaking of, are getting shaken up as Republicans take control of the State House and a supermajority in the Senate. 

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Standings:

President: Chafee 19 Braun 0

Senate: Republicans 38 Democrats 29

House: Republicans 14 Democrats 1

(I will post a final map of all these once I'm finished all the states!)

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