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Reagan04

20(4?) years of Chafing

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Election Night: Deep South and WA

Hello and welcome, it is the Night of the Deep South primaries, up for grabs we have Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, and our misfit child, Washington State. After a groudnbreaking performance last night, Senator Chafee is within an arms reach, he has been polling to win all but Texas tonight, Texas, which unlike the other GOP primary states, is proportional. If Senator Chafee wins in the states he is projected to win, and ties it in Texas, doesn't even have to win, he will become the Republican nominee, clinching that magic number of 1255. Either way Bush is in a bad spot and has to stop the Senator here in his backyard and the state he was the former Governor of. Stay tuned.

--- 8 PM ---

It is now 8 PM here in the Sunshine State and we have some important calls to make. In the states of Louisiana and Mississippi, after long toil from the President, will go to Senator Chafee in a landslide.  Besting the President by as much as 30 points, this almost certainly spells doom for th Bush campaign. You can see, he did pick up a few of the most religious counties, but the Inner State and the coastline were decidedly for Chafee.

MSbycounty.PNG

As you can see from our developing numbers, the Senator is maintaining a rather large 30 point lead.

 

MS2004Chafe.PNG

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As for Louisiana, the Senator swept the Northern rural region, the Central Suburbs, and the Southern Urban region, The President did prove, however, he retained support in the Bayou, winning 3 swamp counties.

LAbycounty.PNG

Again, the Senator retaining about a 32 point lead:

LA2004Chafe.PNG

(Louisiana and Mississippi were supposed to be grouped together, but they glitched out, the Next Part of Super Tuesday 2 will be shortly!)

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---- 10 PM ----

It is now 10 PM in Tallahassee, and polls close on the West Coast in 1 hour. But for now we can make a big projection. Texas will go to its Former Governor, President Bush. After a strong performance in Both Eastern and Northern farming regions and keeping Senator Chafee at bay in the Southern and Western Hispanic regions, President Bush seems to have carried an 18 point margin. 

TXbycounty.PNG

 

TX2004Chafe.PNG

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What are the delegate counts as of right now?

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--- 11 PM ---

With Florida remaining too close to make a call, we turn to Washington where polls have just closed. We can make a call for Senator Chafee, he has racked up votes around Seattle carrying those counties by huge margins, the President won smaller and redder inland counties, but these were not enough to offset the onslaught.

WAbycounty.PNG

WA2004Chafe.PNG

--- 12 AM ---

We now have a major call to make, one crucial to the race, after droves of Hispanics flocking to the GOP just to vote for him, Senator Chafee has won the state of Florida. The President ran far ahead in the North but couldn't match the Senator's ultimately dominant Hispanic base. The counties are actually a tad deceiving as Chafee triumphed in fewer counties but in more populous ones. 

FLbycounty.PNG

FL2004Chafe.PNG

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( @Bruce Fischer Read this )

The Aftermath

Hello and welcome to the After-Math. Let me start by saying this: President Bush, no matter how you slice it, will not win the GOP nomination. Senator Chafee, after last night's performance, is but 13 delegates away from the nomination at 1242-239. While he did fail to split the Texas delegation down the middle, it doesn't matter! He is expected to find resounding victory in this week's Illinois primary which is a winner takes all contest worth 73 delegates, at that point he will become the nominee. As for the Democrats, when I say contested, you say convention. All candidates except for the leading two are mathematically eliminated and our two frontrunners, Kerry and Dean, are both neck and neck in our next few primaries. And in the General, hold your horses, Democrats. The GOP is winning a projected 460 EVs with 57% approval. That's all for the after-math.

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I've been quite inspired by the amount of detail put into this. It's inspired me to do another election playthrough.

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2 minutes ago, LegolasRedbard said:

I've been quite inspired by the amount of detail put into this. It's inspired me to do another election playthrough.

Thank you! Illinois will be up within the next few hours. I'm watching the CNN election series.

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1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

Thank you! Illinois will be up within the next few hours. I'm watching the CNN election series.

Wait which one?

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Just now, Bruce Fischer said:

Wait which one?

They did a 40-minute short film on 6 different History shaping Presidential elections: 1828, 1860, 1948, 1960, 1988, 1992 and they did a special extra film to cover 2000.

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Election Night: Illinois

It is 7 PM in Chicago and polls have now closed in the Praire State. This will be an easy win for Senator Chafee and a victory lap into becoming the Republican nominee, he is expected to win as much as 70% due to large margins in across the states from Chicago to Peoria and severely cutting President Bush's farm base down to only a few counties. The Senator has won 73 delegates and has now 1,315 total delegates to the President's stagnant 239. As for the Democrats,  John Kerry has been mathematically eliminated, however, Howard Dean still must win 90.5% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination outright, we are mist likely going to see a contested convention.

ILbycounty.PNG

IL2004Chafe.PNG

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1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

They did a 40-minute short film on 6 different History shaping Presidential elections: 1828, 1860, 1948, 1960, 1988, 1992 and they did a special extra film to cover 2000.

Oh is that the one Kevin Spacey had a part in? I've been meaning to watch those

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Just now, Bruce Fischer said:

Oh is that the one Kevin Spacey had a part in? I've been meaning to watch those

Yes he is doing a great job as narrator!

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@admin_270 Not sure if it is a glitch, but I have already gotten enough delegates to be the presumptive nominee, but I didn't get the "Locked up Nomination" yet and I can't choose my VP yet. I know that as soon as the nomination was locked up it used to let you, has this changed in 2.5.4?

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7 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

@admin_270 Not sure if it is a glitch, but I have already gotten enough delegates to be the presumptive nominee, but I didn't get the "Locked up Nomination" yet and I can't choose my VP yet. I know that as soon as the nomination was locked up it used to let you, has this changed in 2.5.4?

I also have this problem on 2.5.4 and it's still there (edit: possibly) on 2.5.5. Also, no one ever drops out in the primaries and you can't make them do so no matter how hard you try, which leads to a lot of contested conventions

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That series was pretty good.  They leaned left at time, but that is expected for CNN.  I am glad they used Gingrich pretty often because he is a great resource for this area.

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General Election

I fast forwarded to the General.

Hello, and welcome. Let's take a look at the crazy polls as they have it so far. Well beginning, we want to mention how the Democrats shot up significantly after the Democratic Convention in which the weirdest thing happened, they nominated the lady in 2nd last! Carol Mosely-Braun is the Democratic nominee and chose Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey as here running mate, she is widely unknown and is not inspiring much turnout, on the other hand, the Chafee/Pataki ticket is all the rage and it is expected to be felt down ballot!

Chafee/Pataki: 348 EVs 47%

Mosely-Braun/Kerrey: 176 44%

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On 5/8/2017 at 7:22 PM, Reagan04 said:

General Election

I fast forwarded to the General.

Hello, and welcome. Let's take a look at the crazy polls as they have it so far. Well beginning, we want to mention how the Democrats shot up significantly after the Democratic Convention in which the weirdest thing happened, they nominated the lady in 2nd last! Carol Mosely-Braun is the Democratic nominee and chose Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey as here running mate, she is widely unknown and is not inspiring much turnout, on the other hand, the Chafee/Pataki ticket is all the rage and it is expected to be felt down ballot!

Chafee/Pataki: 348 EVs 47%

Mosely-Braun/Kerrey: 176 44%

Will this series be continued?

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Just now, republicaninnyc said:

Will this series be continued?

I'M drafting the update now.

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September 21st, 2004

(Sorry for the brief Hiatus, life things, anyway, moving on!)

Hello and welcome to the Aftermath. Let's dive into some polls. But first, I want to give Braun/Kerrey supporters a trigger warning. Chafee/Pataki is crushing it, not only crushing it federally but extending coattails to the point where, any election won by a Democrat anywhere outside of Deep Blue territory is going to be a win. We are talking domination at the Congressional, State, and local levels. But Let's start with President. Currently, 56% of Americans plan on casting a ballot for the Republican nominee, 40% for the Democrats. They are projected to win a massive 473 Electoral votes. They are projected to win in states like Minnesota, Michigan, California, Illinois, and New Jersey, states that haven't gone red since the 80s. The Senator is rebranding the party to the Center in all the right places, letting conservatives run the show in the Farm States and the South but giving moderates heed on the coasts, he is managing a party with 2 very different and strong wings extremely efficiently.  Let's look down ballot now, first at the Senate. The GOP is expected to grow their margin. One race, in particular, is interesting, despite Senator Chafee polling with 52% and counting, the IL Senate race is extremely tight between nominees Barack Obama and Steve Rauschenberger (The anti-establishment and Libertarian feeling of the IL primary led to his nomination) The up and coming Democrat Obama is facing a tough fight, though is giving it to the well-known Rauschenberger. Another close race is that in Washington, George Nethercutt retains a slight lead on incumbent Patty Murray. Much of the candidates' time is devoted to campaigning on the State level for officials rather than themselves, while the Braun/Kerrey ticket has no time for such things. The WA Governors race, however (notoriously close OTL, 133 votes decided it) is a blowout for the Republicans and is helping a lagging Chafee behind Braun make up his 1 point deficit. In fact, Democrats are behind in all but West Virginia's Gubernatorial where they are holding a 6 point lead, the candidates are scheduled to campaign for nominee Monty Warner later this week. As for the USHOR, another landslide is expected. Things are looking good for the Grand Old party!

(I'm running an amateur election algorithm, just ask here for numbers in any race and I shall provide!)

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2 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

September 21st, 2004

(Sorry for the brief Hiatus, life things, anyway, moving on!)

Hello and welcome to the Aftermath. Let's dive into some polls. But first, I want to give Braun/Kerrey supporters a trigger warning. Chafee/Pataki is crushing it, not only crushing it federally but extending coattails to the point where, any election won by a Democrat anywhere outside of Deep Blue territory is going to be a win. We are talking domination at the Congressional, State, and local levels. But Let's start with President. Currently, 56% of Americans plan on casting a ballot for the Republican nominee, 40% for the Democrats. They are projected to win a massive 473 Electoral votes. They are projected to win in states like Minnesota, Michigan, California, Illinois, and New Jersey, states that haven't gone red since the 80s. The Senator is rebranding the party to the Center in all the right places, letting conservatives run the show in the Farm States and the South but giving moderates heed on the coasts, he is managing a party with 2 very different and strong wings extremely efficiently.  Let's look down ballot now, first at the Senate. The GOP is expected to grow their margin. One race, in particular, is interesting, despite Senator Chafee polling with 52% and counting, the IL Senate race is extremely tight between nominees Barack Obama and Steve Rauschenberger (The anti-establishment and Libertarian feeling of the IL primary led to his nomination) The up and coming Democrat Obama is facing a tough fight, though is giving it to the well-known Rauschenberger. Another close race is that in Washington, George Nethercutt retains a slight lead on incumbent Patty Murray. Much of the candidates' time is devoted to campaigning on the State level for officials rather than themselves, while the Braun/Kerrey ticket has no time for such things. The WA Governors race, however (notoriously close OTL, 133 votes decided it) is a blowout for the Republicans and is helping a lagging Chafee behind Braun make up his 1 point deficit. In fact, Democrats are behind in all but West Virginia's Gubernatorial where they are holding a 6 point lead, the candidates are scheduled to campaign for nominee Monty Warner later this week. As for the USHOR, another landslide is expected. Things are looking good for the Grand Old party!

(I'm running an amateur election algorithm, just ask here for numbers in any race and I shall provide!)

which algorithm are you using?

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1 minute ago, republicaninnyc said:

which algorithm are you using?

I used the word algorithm to make me seem smart, really I'm doing some basic rudimentary calculations regarding margins and the Coattail effect that relies more on Politics than Math:P I'm definitely better at the former.

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Just now, Jesse Ridgway said:

I really wish they'd fix the candidates not dropping out.

Ah well it's alright, I am excited about this series.

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October 19th, 2004

With about 2 weeks to go into the campaign, the Democrats are in shambles, polling with about 37% nationally and being demolished by the state level, the Braun/Kerrey ticket has buried the party with endless scandal and dreadful debates. The Chafee/Pataki ticket enjoys a projected 520 electoral votes and 57% of the electorate. 

(I'm going to bed, final results tomorrow, just ask for any particular race, Presidential or otherwise that you'd like to hear specific polls for!)

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