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Herbert Hoover

2020 Election Simulation: Trump vs Gillibrand

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I simmed through the 2020 election scenario created by @vcczar, from the primaries to the end of the election. Trump faced barely any opposition in the primaries, while the Democrats were a clustered field with Biden and Gillibrand being the two frontrunners, despite initial reluctance to run.  Trump selected Fallin as his VP, and after a contested convention Gillibrand emerged with Gabbard as her VP. 

If I'm being honest, this isn't a too unlikely 2020 result if Trump exceeds expectations for his Presidency. New Mexico is a stretch, but I could see VA flipping. Gillibrand is also a very plausible option for the 2020 race. Overall, I find the result somewhat realistic other than VP selections. 

Trump.png

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I'd be surprised for Ohio, I live in a fairly conservative area, and he is starting to lose steam already. In truth it is too early to tell how he'll do, and I'd love it if in 2020 I eat every bad thing I've said about him and vote in confidence for his re-election. I don't think it is fair to sim a 2020 election just yet, since a lot depends on if things get worse, the constant scandals and all.

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I think New Mexico and Virginia are stretches tbh. His approval rating was 30% a month ago, and that was before the cratering in the polls. I'm imagining Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida become the closest states next go around.

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Yeah, the VP selections don't seem too plausible, nor does NM going red. However, after the 2016 election, who knows what's impossible anymore. 

 

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Second election in a row the Democrats would have lost the popular vote, and the third time in 20 years. Trump would be the only President who served two terms and never won the popular vote.

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54 minutes ago, Bruce Fischer said:

Second election in a row the Democrats would have lost the popular vote, and the third time in 20 years. Trump would be the only President who served two terms and never won the popular vote.

What's really ironic (and sad) is that Hillary Clinton won a higher percentage of the popular vote in 2016 than her husband did in 1992 and 1996 (largely due to Perot serving as a small-scale but perceptible spoiler).

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

What's really ironic (and sad) is that Hillary Clinton won a higher percentage of the popular vote in 2016 than her husband did in 1992 and 1996 (largely due to Perot serving as a small-scale but perceptible spoiler).

Well not 1996, Bill got 49.2% in that contest, while Hillary got 48.2 last year. But still, the point stands. She almost got as many votes as Obama did in 2012 (raw number, not percent).

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3 hours ago, Bruce Fischer said:

Well not 1996, Bill got 49.2% in that contest, while Hillary got 48.2 last year. But still, the point stands. She almost got as many votes as Obama did in 2012 (raw number, not percent).

The difference is where those votes came from

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39 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

The difference is where those votes came from

Of course, and Trump got 2 million more votes than Romney. I personally think people should determine elections rather than geography, but the electoral college is what we have, and Hillary lost fair and square given the system as it stands, regardless of what I think of that system.

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45 minutes ago, Bruce Fischer said:

Of course, and Trump got 2 million more votes than Romney. I personally think people should determine elections rather than geography, but the electoral college is what we have, and Hillary lost fair and square given the system as it stands, regardless of what I think of that system.

Don't belittle or diminish your opinion on your government or how it's run, or soon you'll sound like a North Korean citizen... :P

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

Don't belittle or diminish your opinion on your government or how it's run, or soon you'll sound like a North Korean citizen... :P

Oh trust me, while right now I have literally no political power (not even enfranchisement, as I'm 17), I wish to run for political office or otherwise get into politics, and plan on doing everything I can to change this arcane system we have in place. I'm not naive, I doubt I'll be able to accomplish much (if anything) of substance, but there's always the chance that I will be able to change the system. That's what motivates me.

In the meantime, I can do nothing but accept the system's results, flawed as I may think they are. The past is in the past, and we have to stop wondering what would've happened had PA, MI, and WI voted differently.

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