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Third Party Candidates in 2020

Third Party choices  

22 members have voted

  1. 1. Who might run as a Libertarian candidate?

    • Gary Johnson
      7
    • Austin Petersen
      16
    • Adam Kokesh
      13
    • Bill Weld
      5
    • Justin Amash
      6
    • Penn Jilette
      2
    • Drew Carey
      0
    • John Stossel
      1
    • someone else
      4
  2. 2. Who might run as an independent / "celebrity" candidate?

    • Mark Cuban
      13
    • Oprah Winfrey
      3
    • Jay-Z
      1
    • Beyonce
      0
    • someone else
      10
  3. 3. Suppose a Conservative wing of the GOP broke off and formed the Constitutional Conservative Party.... Whom might they choose? (NOTE this is different from challenging Trump in the primaries, as some of them would not consider themselves GOP or would not run as a Republican)

    • Ted Cruz
      12
    • Mike Lee
      5
    • Trey Gowdy
      3
    • Jason Chaffetz
      2
    • Jim Jordan
      1
    • Darrell Castle
      1
    • Evan McMullin
      9
    • Ben Shapiro
      1
    • Mick Mulvaney
      0
    • Dave Brat
      2
    • Matt Salmon
      0
    • someone else
      8


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I foresee a dramatic rise in 3rd party stemming from 2016, especially with the controversy over the Health Care law.  Democrats don't want any change, Republicans are split between "RyanCare" and complete repeal.  I'm also looking to add to my 2020 scenario so I will ask about third party candidates.

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1 minute ago, servo75 said:

I foresee a dramatic rise in 3rd party stemming from 2016, especially with the controversy over the Health Care law.  Democrats don't want any change, Republicans are split between "RyanCare" and complete repeal.  I'm also looking to add to my 2020 scenario so I will ask about third party candidates.

You didn't include any full and complete Third PARTY other than the Libertarian Party... :S

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Just now, Patine said:

You didn't include any full and complete Third PARTY other than the Libertarian Party... :S

My bad, I can re-do it to include Green Party, but honestly I'm not familiar enough with their candidates. :unsure:

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14 minutes ago, servo75 said:

My bad, I can re-do it to include Green Party, but honestly I'm not familiar enough with their candidates. :unsure:

When I'm not familiar with candidates, I use one of many online sources, including Wikipedia, various news articles about them (you can stagger the partisan bias by reading several articles), the party and candidate's own websites (most have them), Congressional, Legislative, and other bio webpages if they've previously been elected to some official office or other, etc.

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Mark Cuban would probably run as a democrat, or he'd split the dem base most likely.

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6 minutes ago, wolves said:

Mark Cuban would probably run as a democrat, or he'd split the dem base most likely.

I could see him picking off some of the people Trump appealed to though.

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I don't see any sitting Republican going third party, since it might hurt them in reelection for their seat. 

As far as Libertarian and Green go, I think that, unless with a surprise candidate that I can't think of, that both parties are going to see a reduction in votes. 2016 saw their greatest opportunity in their history to get votes, and both parties blundered it. Jill Stein needs to definitely be replaced, preferably by a CEO or political figure with name recognition and charisma. Libertarians, likewise need someone with name recognition. Both need people with great name recognition and influence than Gary Johnson. I can't think of anyone. I think if Bill Weld ran at the top of the Libertarian ticket, he would have gotten about 15% of the vote, even if he mostly attacked Trump. I don't expect him to run for office again. 

I think if the third parties worked together to field a a powerful ticket, they could probably get 15-20%. It may sound ridiculous, but Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul were often appearing together earlier in the 21st century. They ran primarily on reform and a change in foreign policy, leaving domestic issues aside. Perhaps, similarly, a ticket with a Kucinich and Ron Paul type politician could get together and forge an agreement that they would make political and election reform and foreign policy their main focus, and because of their great domestic difference, leave domestics to Congress, or let the people decide through some sort of referendum. Actually, domestically, I don't know how they'd operate, since neither would want to take a backseat on some domestic issues. 

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11 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

I could see him picking off some of the people Trump appealed to though.

Mark Cuban should just run independent in order to drain Trump voters, appealing specifically to Trump issues, as if he were Trump himself. If I were a wealthy CEO, I would come together with several CEO's that wanted to stop Trump. I'd have all of us run independent, each on Trump issues, each spending time exclusively in his strongest states, in order to diminish him so the Democrats, or a progressive independent wins. 

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54 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Mark Cuban should just run independent in order to drain Trump voters, appealing specifically to Trump issues, as if he were Trump himself. If I were a wealthy CEO, I would come together with several CEO's that wanted to stop Trump. I'd have all of us run independent, each on Trump issues, each spending time exclusively in his strongest states, in order to diminish him so the Democrats, or a progressive independent wins. 

Imagine if both sides had people doing this.

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Mark Cuban should just run independent in order to drain Trump voters, appealing specifically to Trump issues, as if he were Trump himself. If I were a wealthy CEO, I would come together with several CEO's that wanted to stop Trump. I'd have all of us run independent, each on Trump issues, each spending time exclusively in his strongest states, in order to diminish him so the Democrats, or a progressive independent wins. 

But that would almost guarantee him no votes, I mean you have a major party incumbent against a challenger third party?  Even for someone that high profile it's a recipe for disaster. 

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17 minutes ago, servo75 said:

But that would almost guarantee him no votes, I mean you have a major party incumbent against a challenger third party?  Even for someone that high profile it's a recipe for disaster. 

Ross Perot vs. George H.W. Bush, 1992...

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I find it highly unlikely Ted Cruz would switch parties, even if the GOP split; Ted Cruz might be an opportunist but he's smarter than most people realise. I have a feeling that Cruz is going to redeem his relations with Trump and that he's actually going to be one of his greatest allies in the future. This is of course just a hunch, but there are some articles, like the one I'll leave in a link below[1] that can explain my theory.

[1] http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/trump-ted-cruz-allies-233622

[1] https://archive.fo/XB6Yd

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For the 2nd two questions, count my someone else answer, as Not going to happen.

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2 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

For the 2nd two questions, count my someone else answer, as Not going to happen.

But, @Reagan04, what if the celebrity in question were someone like Kirk Cameron or Tim Teebow, or someone along those lines? :P

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I think that this is going to be a very unpopular opinion, but I believe that third parties are going to have a weaker influence in the 2020 election than they had in the 2016 election. I'm talking 3% max if they put up decent candidates, though there is no candidate who is respected enough to gain votes willing to jump ship for political suicide. 

2016 was a different year because the two major party candidates were so, so unlikeable. Going into President Trump, he hasn't ruined the country. That alone will make him appear to be better than he was in 2016 if he chooses to run, and I doubt there will be anyone like McMullin since conservatives will rally around Trump like they would any other Republican.

The Democrats will hopefully have learned their lesson and put up someone somewhat likable, there's few political dinosaurs left to become the next Hillary Clinton, and the party isn't going to push through someone like her again so soon. All in all, I think this was the peak of 3rd party activity and interest for several election cycles, and it was squandered by a crazy, definitely not presidential, old lady and a goofy, non presidential, old man. 

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1 hour ago, CalebsParadox said:

I think that this is going to be a very unpopular opinion, but I believe that third parties are going to have a weaker influence in the 2020 election than they had in the 2016 election. I'm talking 3% max if they put up decent candidates, though there is no candidate who is respected enough to gain votes willing to jump ship for political suicide. 

2016 was a different year because the two major party candidates were so, so unlikeable. Going into President Trump, he hasn't ruined the country. That alone will make him appear to be better than he was in 2016 if he chooses to run, and I doubt there will be anyone like McMullin since conservatives will rally around Trump like they would any other Republican.

The Democrats will hopefully have learned their lesson and put up someone somewhat likable, there's few political dinosaurs left to become the next Hillary Clinton, and the party isn't going to push through someone like her again so soon. All in all, I think this was the peak of 3rd party activity and interest for several election cycles, and it was squandered by a crazy, definitely not presidential, old lady and a goofy, non presidential, old man. 

I think as likely as that scenario is, it's a sad state of affair. I personally believe the US political system, and the national dialogue in general, would benefit from the breaking up and fracturing of the two-party system into a multi-party system (it de facto already is, it just won't admit it, and everyone's in denial, and the bottleneck system - err, primaries season - produced a real awful pair of candidates last year). The problem is, for a multi-party system to be successful, to flourish, or even be realistic in the US, the Electoral College would have to go...

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1 hour ago, CalebsParadox said:

I think that this is going to be a very unpopular opinion, but I believe that third parties are going to have a weaker influence in the 2020 election than they had in the 2016 election. I'm talking 3% max if they put up decent candidates, though there is no candidate who is respected enough to gain votes willing to jump ship for political suicide. 

2016 was a different year because the two major party candidates were so, so unlikeable. Going into President Trump, he hasn't ruined the country. That alone will make him appear to be better than he was in 2016 if he chooses to run, and I doubt there will be anyone like McMullin since conservatives will rally around Trump like they would any other Republican.

The Democrats will hopefully have learned their lesson and put up someone somewhat likable, there's few political dinosaurs left to become the next Hillary Clinton, and the party isn't going to push through someone like her again so soon. All in all, I think this was the peak of 3rd party activity and interest for several election cycles, and it was squandered by a crazy, definitely not presidential, old lady and a goofy, non presidential, old man. 

I agree unless the third party(ies) get an awesome candidate.  This year was a great opportunity, but the candidates of the 3rd parties were awful as well.

1 minute ago, Patine said:

I think as likely as that scenario is, it's a sad state of affair. I personally believe the US political system, and the national dialogue in general, would benefit from the breaking up and fracturing of the two-party system into a multi-party system (it de facto, it won't admit it, and everyone's in denial, and the bottleneck system - err, primaries season - produced a real awful pair of candidates last year). The problem is, for a multi-party to be successful, to flourish, or even be realistic in the US, the Electoral College would have to go...

Or if the third parties find a quality leader that is younger and can successfully lead the party for many years.  The problem is that third parties either have a leader that leaves and causes the party to fall back down or they throw away great opportunities to grow their supporters (as in this election).

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6 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

I could see him picking off some of the people Trump appealed to though.

And? Conservatives will still vote for Trump and if Trump has a guaranteed record by 2020, he won't lose all of his base. Cuban will probably pick off more democrats due to his social and economic positions than Republicans.

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2 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

Or if the third parties find a quality leader that is younger and can successfully lead the party for many years. 

I'm somewhat against something like this, though it does have its merits. I feel that after a candidate has run a certain number of times, they become a joke, even if they are a third party candidate. A major 3rd party would need to be able to consistently put up decent and likable candidates to put a dent in the two party system. This is completely hypothetical, but something like this could have made a strong left wing party:

2008: Dennis Kucinch
2012: Elizabeth Warren/Bernie Sanders
2016: Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren
2020: Sherrod Brown

Or something like this could have had a stronger Libertarian Party: 
2008: Ron Paul
2012: Ron Paul
2016: Rand Paul/William Weld

Either way, there needs to be fresh faces every so often that have actually made changes and established a following to draw away from the two major parties. 

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7 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

Imagine if both sides had people doing this.

Who do you have in mind? I can't think if a Republican-friendly CEO, favoring Trump, that would run to drain Democratic votes, by running a pro-labor, climate, progressive campaign. I can see a Michael Bloomberg, Mark Cuban, etc., Democrat-leaning or anti-Trump CEO that runs center or center-right to drain Trump. I just think it's harder the other way around. 

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I know it's a problem with the forum company, but it'd be nice if we didn't have to answer every single question

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I'll be honest, imagining third parties is pretty damn fun- hell I am writing an undergrad 'thesis' on one- but this election has proved that it is nearly damn impossible to win as one. Aside from the two Senators in the northeast, virtually no third party showed some serious gains; and this is when you factor in how unpopular that the two main presidential candidates were. And when you factor in that how loyal the GoP is to Trump, I doubt we will see a big name go third party- though I can see a same namer try to make a name for himself and try to do so. 

But remember the last time the nation saw a major party politician break for a third party, and get a sizable share of the popular vote, was John Anderson back in 1980. And he only received a paltry 5%. 

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9 hours ago, Patine said:

The problem is, for a multi-party system to be successful, to flourish, or even be realistic in the US, the Electoral College would have to go...

Not just the electoral college, the whole FPP system.  The US would have to switch to some sort of parliamentary system in order to have more than two viable parties.

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37 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

But remember the last time the nation saw a major party politician break for a third party, and get a sizable share of the popular vote, was John Anderson back in 1980. And he only received a paltry 5%. 

 

Well, Perot would have won in 92 had he not dropped. So Anderson is not the Best performance of a 3rd party.

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Eh, Perot was not an elected member of a big party, so I was mainly addressing question 3.  But fair point, on the Perot factor. Though Perot did extremely well because both big candidates were for NAFTA. I highly doubt there will be major issue that both Trump and the Democratic nominee in 2020 will agree on. 

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