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Mordechai

2016 with primaries as Illuminati (spectator), detailed

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*many hours later*

Oregon is still too close to call, but Hillary Clinton has taken a substantial lead over Bernie Sanders. 

D-OR CLOSE.png

*many more hours later*

We can now call Oregon for Hillary Clinton. 

D-OR WIN.pngD-OR.PNG

*days later*

In the Washington GOP Primary, Donald Trump is our projected winner!

R-WA WIN.pngR-WA.PNG

 

 

So y'all, I nerded out too much and became Nate Silver. Nah, I just used a simple excel file to simulate in-game polls and create weighted averages of state polls. I will upload my maps in the next post. 

 

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As I said earlier, I nerded out too much and ended up having my own fivethirtyeight.com. 

Left panel: chances of winning in each state
Panel directly above the electoral vote count: each party's probability of winning the electoral college.
Bar graph: how many times an electoral college combination occurred in a simulation of 500 'elections'. 

Here's the first map, which I'd call "polls only". This one changes a lot because it's just a simulation of in-game polls and it can be quite inaccurate. 

**CORRECTION: LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI ARE SHADED WRONG. LA should be dark red while MS is medium red. 

polls only.png

And here's my version of "polls plus", which is a weighted average of the last five state polls. The most recent one gets the full weight, the next one is weighted at 75%, and then 50%, then 25%, then 1%. It isn't scientific but it's better than the one above. As such, this map changes less and any sudden polling change will have minimal impact on this map. An example would be Indiana, which became light blue for one round in my game, and then reverted back to (light) red. In a case like that, the map above would have Indiana blue while the map below will still have it at red, albeit with a lighter shade. 

polls plus.png

 

 

 

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Welcome to the month of June! Good news! Private polling of key states is back thanks to a generous donor who gave us $500 million. 

Anyway, in case y'all have forgotten there are more than two parties and two of those held their mini-convention last week. Although some would argue that they're just two additional Republican Parties, it's good to give the people an illusion of more choices. 

LIBERTARIAN PARTY:
Pres. : GARY JOHNSON (L-NM)
VP: RAND PAUL (L-KY)

INDEPENDENT: 
Pres. : EVAN MCMULLIN (I-UT)
VP: MINDY FINN (I-TX)

 

And coming up, and it is a yuge one:

The final stretch. Will the DNC be contested??? 
Democratic Primaries and Caucuses:
USVI
Puerto Rico
South Dakota
New Jersey
California
Montana
New Mexico
North Dakota

GOP Primaries: (yeah, we all know it's gonna be contested but eh, for what it's worth, let's view the results)
New Jersey
New Mexico
South Dakota
California

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OK although we won't be calling states until later, we have enough data to make this MAJOR projection:

THE DNC WILL BE CONTESTED

DNC.png

 

 

NOW THAT BOTH CONVENTIONS WILL BE CONTESTED, THAT BRINGS US TO THIS PARTY GIF: (click for animation!)

www.GIFCreator.me_HA2OU2.gif

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I didn't think O'Malley was going to lose his momentum, but it appears he did. If anyone wins outright, it will be Hillary Clinton riding the momentum of the last few states into victories in the Midwest and a possible shutout in California, but I'm hoping for the contested convention as there is no way that Sanders would throw his support behind Clinton ;) 

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3 hours ago, CalebsParadox said:

I didn't think O'Malley was going to lose his momentum, but it appears he did. If anyone wins outright, it will be Hillary Clinton riding the momentum of the last few states into victories in the Midwest and a possible shutout in California, but I'm hoping for the contested convention as there is no way that Sanders would throw his support behind Clinton ;) 

 

Hopefully Hillary won't pull something silly at the convention :P

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And here we are, on the final stretch of this gruelling primary season. Let's start with the Democrats.

In California, New Jersey, and Montana, Hillary Clinton is our projected winner.

D-CA WIN.pngD-MT WIN.pngD-NJ WIN.png

In North and South Dakota, Bernie Sanders is our projected winner!

D-ND WIN.pngD-SD WIN.png

And in New Mexico, Martin O'Malley is our projected winner. In the USVI, it's Hillary Clinton.

D-NM WIN.pngD-VI WIN.png

(final results. Click for full size)

D-CA.PNGD-MT.PNGD-ND.PNGD-NJ.PNGD-NM.PNGD-SD.PNGD-VI.PNG

Let me repeat, the DNC will be contested

And finally, in Puerto Rico, it is too close to call.

D-PR CLOSE.png

Now on to the Republican side.

Donald Trump is our projected winner in Montana while Ted Cruz is the winner in California and New Jersey. 
R-CA WIN.pngR-MT WIN.pngR-NJ WIN.png

In South Dakota, it is too early to call but Ted Cruz is in the lead. And New Mexico is simply too close to call. 

R-SD EARLY.pngR-NM CLOSE.png

Data dump. Click for larger:

R-CA.PNGR-NJ.PNGR-MT.PNG

 

 

 

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Home stretch part 2! 

Puerto Rico (DEM) and New Mexico (GOP) remain too close to call with no clear advantage for anyone. 

D-PR CLOSE.pngR-NM CLOSE.png

but in South Dakota, Ted Cruz is our projected winner. 

R-SD WIN.pngR-SD.PNG

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I FORGOT ABOUT WASHINGTON DC OMG.

Anyway, Hillary Clinton is the winner in DC.

D-DC WIN.pngD-DC.PNG

And she is also the winner in Puerto Rico! 

D-PR WIN.pngD-PR.PNG

And in New Mexico it's Ted Cruz

R-NM WIN.pngR-NM.PNG

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Now let's recap:

Martin O'Malley - He enjoyed an early momentum surge that helped him reach over a thousand delegates but it wasn't enough to keep him at the top.
Hillary Clinton - She was struggling in the beginning but she slowly built up momentum and hit O'Malley hard in the most crucial states.
Bernie Sanders - He stayed there all right. 

Ted Cruz - His early momentum helped him keep his lead but the GOP primaries were such a rollercoaster ride that no one emerged at the top.
Donald Trump - his popularity surge late in the game may help him eventually capture the nomination.

Who will be the nominees? Only one way to find out. DNC and RNC soon! 

Meanwhile, let's take a look at fivethirtyeight and see where the national map's at:

POLLS ONLY

Our latest poll finally had the GOP leading in North Carolina and actually having a decent shot at winning, but the Democrats are also making a play in Georgia and still maintain an electoral college lead, albeit much narrower. 
POLLS ONLY.png

POLLS PLUS'

But ultimately, our team still believes that the map below is still the most likely scenario. 

POLLS PLUS.png

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28 minutes ago, Mordechai said:

Now let's recap:

Martin O'Malley - He enjoyed an early momentum surge that helped him reach over a thousand delegates but it wasn't enough to keep him at the top.
Hillary Clinton - She was struggling in the beginning but she slowly built up momentum and hit O'Malley hard in the most crucial states.
Bernie Sanders - He stayed there all right. 

Ted Cruz - His early momentum helped him keep his lead but the GOP primaries were such a rollercoaster ride that no one emerged at the top.
Donald Trump - his popularity surge late in the game may help him eventually capture the nomination.

Who will be the nominees? Only one way to find out. DNC and RNC soon! 

Meanwhile, let's take a look at fivethirtyeight and see where the national map's at:

POLLS ONLY

Our latest poll finally had the GOP leading in North Carolina and actually having a decent shot at winning, but the Democrats are also making a play in Georgia and still maintain an electoral college lead, albeit much narrower. 
POLLS ONLY.png

POLLS PLUS'

But ultimately, our team still believes that the map below is still the most likely scenario. 

POLLS PLUS.png

The Electoral College must REALLY be broken if the GOP can potentially clinch 214 EV's with only 9% of the vote. Or am I reading this display wrong?

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3 minutes ago, Patine said:

The Electoral College must REALLY be broken if the GOP can potentially clinch 214 EV's with only 9% of the vote. Or am I reading this display wrong?

 

oops sorry! That's the probability that they'll win the EC. The panel on the left displays their chances of winning too, not polls. 

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JULY FOURTH! (technically July 7 because I'm still on weekly view) 
 UPDATES:
Clinton meets with the FBI to discuss her email scandal. The FBI will not be pressing charges but claims that her handling of classified information was extremely careless. 
BREXIT! 
FUN JULY 4TH POLLING UPDATES! 

Polls only: what latest polls show

jul 4 polls only.png

Our latest poll out of Ohio showed an total tie, while states like North Carolina and Georgia are starting to become sure bets for Democrats. Meanwhile, third party support in Colorado, Montana, and New Mexico and, to some extent, in Utah as well are chipping away support for the two parties. 

 Polls plus: what the trend shows after putting five most recent polls and momentum into the equation

jul 4 polls plus.png

We still have Ohio leaning red because out of many polls, only one showed a tie. Our polls plus map also reflects the recent surge of support for third party candidates in New Mexico, Colorado, and Montana. The last time we've seen Georgia red was a few months ago. Good news for Democrats? Well, the last time I saw Iowa and Ohio blue was like in 2012 so whatever, I guess we can say it's pretty fair. 

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And here's how our maps have evolved in the past four weeks! 

Polls only (yep, just the polls. No other equations done)

1ivyn9.gifvia Imgflip GIF Maker

Polls plus (weighted average of polls + momentum)

1ivyo5.gifvia Imgflip GIF Maker

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REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION 2016!!!

The RNC will begin shortly but first, we have sad news from the Democratic Party. Bernie Sanders has dropped out of the race, leaving the DNC contested between just O'Malley and Clinton

RNC VOTING BEGINS! 
ROUND 1 - JEB BUSH IS REMOVED FROM THE RUNNING AND HIS 27 DELEGATES GO TO.... DONALD TRUMP!!

Cruz - 1095 Trump - 742 Carson - 274 Kasich - 149 Rubio - 125 Fiorina - 86

ROUND 2 - BYE FIORINA! Her 86 delegates go to... MARCO RUBIO!

Cruz - 1095 Trump - 742 Carson - 274 Rubio - 211 Kasich - 149

ROUND 3 - Ka-ZILCH! Kasich's 149 delegates go to... MARCO RUBIO! 

Cruz - 1095 Trump - 742 Rubio - 360 Carson - 274

ROUND 4 - Car-zonk! Carson's 274 delegates go to... MARCO RUBIO!!! 

Cruz - 1095 Trump - 742 Rubio - 634

This is it. Whomever Rubio endorses will be the Republican Nominee!!!! 

*drumrolls* 
*fanfare* 

nominee.png

TED CRUZ IS THE GOP NOMINEE!!!

TED CRUZ PICKS BOB CORKER (R-TN) AS RUNNING MATE

Tune in next week for the DNC! 

 
 

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RNC CONVENTION BOUNCE!!! Can the DNC next week match this? 

POLLS ONLY (map only includes numbers from polls taken after the RNC)

convention bounce polls only.png

Sooo yeaaah if it stays this way then the Democratic Party is doomed. 

 

But hey! Our polls plus analysis says otherwise. This one does a weighted average of the last few polls taken to minimize any event bounce. 66.4% probability of winning the EC isn't huge, but better than what post-RNC polls suggest. 

convention bounce polls plus.png

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--DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION--
 

KEY... PERSON??? ALERT!! 

Round 1 - Bernie Sanders is removed from the running and his 936 delegates go to... 

nom.png

 

 

PRESIDENT: MARTIN O'MALLEY (D-MD)

VICE PRESIDENT: ALLISON GRIMES (D-KY)

 

 

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5 hours ago, Mordechai said:

--DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION--
 

KEY... PERSON??? ALERT!! 

Round 1 - Bernie Sanders is removed from the running and his 936 delegates go to... 

nom.png

 

 

PRESIDENT: MARTIN O'MALLEY (D-MD)

VICE PRESIDENT: ALLISON GRIMES (D-KY)

 

 

I'd have a friend I know online who would love that VP win there. She lives in Kentucky and voted for Grimes for Senator in 2014 (she even has a picture taken with her at a rally) in hopes of ousting the long-term McConnell (whom she detests). After McConnell won again she was dejected and said there was "no hope for Kentucky politically or socially" and as now is engaged to a young man from British Columbia and making preparations to emigrate to Canada.

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Grimes has a very limited future ahead because of her party's failed policies that have severely hurt people in Kentucky.  While I do not like McConnell, he is a lot better for Kentucky than Grimes.

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14 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Grimes has a very limited future ahead because of her party's failed policies that have severely hurt people in Kentucky.  While I do not like McConnell, he is a lot better for Kentucky than Grimes.

What will the "Coal Belt" states do when the fossil fuel market implodes, quite possibly in our lifetimes? I know those Persian Gulf Monarchies are going to suffer but good when that happens (except maybe the UAE, who have been investing in many other lucrative areas), but what plans does Kentucky have, or are they like many Red States and seemingly in denial that such an event will EVER happen?

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7 minutes ago, Patine said:

What will the "Coal Belt" states do when the fossil fuel market implodes, quite possibly in our lifetimes? I know those Persian Gulf Monarchies are going to suffer but good when that happens (except maybe the UAE, who have been investing in many other lucrative areas), but what plans does Kentucky have, or are they like many Red States and seemingly in denial that such an event will EVER happen?

First off, while it is bound to happen, there is no need to accelerate job loss. That is purposely costing people their jobs.  Second, Kentucky is attempting to get its pensions under control.  It is also trying to attract other businesses here by passing right to work and working on tax reform.

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6 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

First off, while it is bound to happen, there is no need to accelerate job loss. That is purposely costing people their jobs.  Second, Kentucky is attempting to get its pensions under control.  It is also trying to attract other businesses here by passing right to work and working on tax reform.

I'm not saying lay off people wholesale. That's a policy I actually disagree with which is more often (in other industries, and especially the public sector) typical of right-wing economic plans and incentives. I moreso think a horizontal transition - that is, encourage people engaged in coal mining and refining to take correspondence or other part-time courses, subsidized or partially so (at it would be investment in the state's future) to prepare them for jobs better suited for new industries and endeavours for the state economy should a gradual downsizing of the coal-based workforce be implemented.

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10 hours ago, LokiLoki22 said:

This is a play-by-play, not a fossil fuels debate (Though I would love to see that)

I was literally just about to post this lol.

Anyway, this play by play is quite remarkable, O'Malley vs Cruz will make it even more interesting.

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On ‎2‎/‎8‎/‎2017 at 8:06 PM, LokiLoki22 said:

This is a play-by-play, not a fossil fuels debate (Though I would love to see that)

Exactly why I did not respond.  I would have liked to, but I did not want to hijack the thread.

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