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Mordechai

2016 with primaries as Illuminati (spectator), detailed

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Welcome to our GOP debate special! Just like the previous Democratic Debate, this night's GOP debate was uneventful and frankly, not even worth getting into. Seriously, both parties' candidates have been giving no effort lately. Ah well, for what it's worth, Cruz "won" this debate. 

GOP DEBATE.PNG
 

And ooh! We have returns from American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands, District of Columbia, Guam, and the US Virgin Islands! Let's go right to it and we will start with the Democrats.

In American Samoa, this is interesting, it is too close to call. Although all votes have been counted, the difference is too small that we cannot make any clear projection yet and there's still a possibility of anyone changing their minds/recounts. In the Northern Mariana Islands, it is too early to call and they haven't even started giving numbers yet. What a bummer.

D-AS CLOSE.pngD-MP EARLY.png

 

Maybe the Republicans have something? Oh, indeed they do! Ted Cruz will win the territories of Guam and US Virgin Islands while John Kasich will win DC! My colleagues and I will wait here for more states to come in.

R-DC WIN.pngR-GU WIN.pngR-VI WIN.png

R-DC.PNGR-GU.PNGR-VI.PNG

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Wow, that Cruz-Trump ticket is gonna be hilarious in the general election against, who, Sanders/Carcetti, maybe...?

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Sorry for the late update, I got sick! 

Anyway, let's not beat around the bush and go right to the results! 

We will start in American Samoa and the Northern Marianas Islands! Yup, not a big surprise that my predictions were both wrong. Hillary Clinton has been declared the winner in CNMI while Martin O'Malley wins US Samoa.

D-MP WIN.pngD-AS WIN.png

D-AS.PNGD-MP.PNG

And now it's time for a couple more results from states that have just finished voting! 

In Ohio and North Carolina, our predictions were wrong again because Martin O'Malley will win both in an upset.

D-NC WIN.pngD-NC.PNG

D-OH WIN.pngD-OH.PNG

 

In Florida, it is too early to call but O'Malley is in the lead while in Illinois and Missouri, it is too close to call! 

D-FL EARLY.pngD-IL CLOSE.pngD-MO CLOSE.png

 

While the Democratic primaries in Missouri and Illinois are too close to call, the GOP primaries there are now decided. Our projected winner in Illinois is Donald Trump while in Missouri it is Ted Cruz. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe both are winner take all. 

R-IL WIN.pngR-MO WIN.png

R-IL.PNGR-MO.PNG

It is too close to call in Florida, while it is too early to call in CNMI, North Carolina, and Ohio.

R-FL CLOSE.pngR-MP EARLY.png

R-NC EARLY.pngR-OH EARLY.png

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We now have a major projection in the Democratic race in Florida! The winner is once again Martin O'Malley! 

D-FL WIN.pngD-FL.PNG

It is still too close to call in Missouri and Illinois, with Martin O'Malley taking a narrow lead in Hillary Clinton's birth state. 
D-IL CLOSE.pngD-MO CLOSE.png

Now moving on to the GOP side, Donald Trump is the winner in CNMI, Ted Cruz wins North Carolina, while John Kasich wins his home state, Ohio.

R-MP WIN.pngR-NC WIN.pngR-OH WIN.png
R-MP.PNGR-NC.PNGR-OH.PNG

 

In Florida, with 90% of the votes in and John Kasich leading by just 98 votes, it is still too close to call. 

R-FL CLOSE.png

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Ya'll, apologies for the lack of update. I was in the hospital for about a week and I needed to have a surgery and a procedure. Anyway, I'm back to continue this and possibly fast-track to the convention.

Another upset win for Martin O'Malley as he wins Hillary Clinton's birth state! 

D-IL WIN.pngD-IL.PNG
 

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders has won his first state yet: Missouri! 

D-MO WIN.pngD-MO.PNG

 

And in one of the toughest fights in the GOP nomination, Ted Cruz has won all 99 delegates from Florida! 

R-FL WIN.pngR-FL.PNG

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40 minutes ago, Mordechai said:

And in one of the toughest fights in the GOP nomination, Ted Cruz has won all 99 delegates from Florida! 

R-FL WIN.pngR-FL.PNG

Ouch. Poor Kasich lost by about 1,500 votes.

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I hope it was nothing serious.  I really enjoy reading this very detailed report.  It is one of the best play-by-plays that I have seen.

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I'm back! Health is better than ever but I had problems with my internet connection and my work schedule changed. I'll try having regular updates again. 

Anyway, let's recap! 

Democratic Party - 2372 to win! O'Malley - 1,092, Clinton - 882, Sanders - 375

(gray states are states that will have a primary/caucus this week)

US Map DEM.png

Predictions for next week:

Idaho - Likely Sanders - 70% chance. Polling: Sanders 40.6 Clinton 23.6 O'Malley 2.8 Undecided 33
Utah - Too close to call. Polling: Sanders 26.6 Clinton 23 O'Malley 9.5 Undecided 40.9
Arizona - Lean Clinton - 55% chance. Polling: Clinton 37.1 Sanders 26.8 O'Malley 8.2 Undecided 27.9

Republican Party - 1236 to win! Cruz - 563, Trump - 334, Carson - 257, Kasich - 133, Rubio - 125, Fiorina - 86, Bush - 273

I don't know about you, but by how things are going, it's starting to look like that the RNC will be contested. Still too early to call, though.

 US Map GOP.png

Additionally, Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee have announced that they will not be seeking the nomination at this time. 

Predictions for next week:
Utah - Likely Cruz - 70% Chance
Arizona - Solid Trump - 90% Chance
American Samoa - Solid Cruz - 95% Chance

And finally, this is how our current national map looks like:updated electoral map.PNG
I'd like y'all to take note of the highlighted states. 

Ohio and Iowa - The Democratic Party seems to be losing support in both states. Because of that, their numbers in the upper midwest are not looking good as well.

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota - It's a virtual tie in Michigan right now while Minnesota and Wisconsin are starting to become competitive. 

Maine and New Hampshire - While past elections in NH have always been close, its competitiveness seems to be leaking northwards. Is this the end of Democratic dominance in New England?

Kansas and Texas - These red states are unusually close. We will definitely watch them closely. 

North Carolina, Montana, Arizona, and Georgia - While these states normally lean Republican, they can also be competitive when there's a Democratic sweep. Changing demographics in NC, AZ, and GA may also explain these polls. 

Florida and Colorado - FL has always been a swing state while former red state Colorado has been leaning Democratic lately, although it remains competitive. 

We will aggressively poll these states to get a better insight. 

 

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*intro music*

Welcome to FXCNNBC! I'm your host Mo and we have a few important states and territories that will post their results in a few.

Let's start on the Democratic board because this one is always full of surprises.

And indeed! We have two states in the O'Malley column. We can now project that O'Malley will win the states of Utah and Idaho! 

D-ID WIN.pngD-ID.PNG

D-UT WIN.pngD-UT.PNG

In Arizona, it is too early to call but our exit polls have Hillary Clinton in the lead.

D-AZ EARLY.png

Now moving on to the less exciting GOP side.

Donald Trump is the winner in the GOP Caucuses in American Samoa. 

R - AS WIN.pngR-AS.PNG

And as expected, Donald Trump will carry the State of Arizona while Ted Cruz is the winner in Utah. 

R-AZ WIN.pngR-AZ.PNG

R-UT WIN.pngR-UT.PNG

And here's the updated GOP Map:

US Map GOP.png

1236 to win
Cruz - 584
Trump - 401
Carson - 266
Kasich - 143
Rubio - 125
Fiorina - 86
Bush - 27

It's still looking like it's going to be contested. 

 

 

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*after three hours*

With 70% of the votes in, we are changing our characterization of the Arizona Democratic Primary. It is now too close to call with Clinton leading by just 8,728.

D-AZ CLOSE.png


Ok, what exactly is happening? Tuck Chodd, can you please pull out a map and explain it to us? 

*Tuck Chodd*

Yes, indeed. If you look at this map, Bernie Sanders is virtually out of luck while Clinton and O'Malley are battling it in Pima and Maricopa counties where Tucson and Phoenix are located, respectively. Martin O'Malley is sweeping Arizona's traditionally Republican counties while Clinton is currently in the lead in both Pima and Maricopa counties but not by much. Martin O'Malley still has a huge chance of flipping these two large counties and we will watch Arizona very closely. 

AZ COUNTIES.png

 

*IN OTHER NEWS*

BUSH, FIORINA, AND RUBIO have withdrawn from the GOP race. They have not publicly endorsed any candidate and it is still unsure how their withdrawal will affect the GOP race. 

And after his *yuge* win in Arizona, Donald Trump has attacked Ted Cruz once again.

"Lyin' Ted holds the bible high and then he lies" - Donald J Trump

 

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Just for fun. This is in no way accurate and has no political or demographic basis in real life. Anyway, here's how Arizona evolved throughout the night and I will let y'all make your own projections. I will be back in a few hours (or days?) to post the final results.

az evol.png

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And this is just in. Martin O'Malley will win the state of Arizona. It's one of the few states where we've seen an actual three-way race between all candidates but it is now O'Malley's. 

D-AZ WIN.pngD-AZ.PNG

US Map DEM.png

2372 to win
O'Malley 1156
Clinton 924
Sanders 418

And let's look at our national map. Due to unusual polls, we've started polling Kansas more aggressively and the GOP's nightmare has been confirmed.

Electoral Map.PNG

Highlighted in green are states that are competitive at this time.
Ohio and Iowa, where Democrats were previously losing support, are now getting more competitive.
We sent more pollsters to Mississippi to see if it's really competitive or if it was just a polling error, but right now it looks like GOP support in this southern state is on its way to collapse.
Democratic support in the Upper Midwest is recovering after a dip last week, and we are taking Minnesota off of our watchlist for now. In another part of the country, the same can be said about Florida.
This map has one curious detail: is Virginia fall off of the battleground map? Is this the year when Virginia finally becomes a Democratic stronghold? It is too soon to call. 

We're seeing the light at the end of the nomination tunnel and in the next few updates, we may be able to see who the parties' frontliners are. 

MEANWHILE ON SOCIAL MEDIA

*knee-jerk Democrat shares photo from FXCNNBC*
OMG KANSAS IS NOW TOO CLOSE TO CALL???
Comments:
Reasonable person: dude it's just March. Calm down
Knee-jerk Republican: NO THE POLLS ARE WRONG #TED4PREZ
Non-American: Why are you sharing maps so much?

 

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Welcome back! This one is gonna be short as we only have three Democratic races to watch. Currently, our polls have Sanders leading in all three states: Hawaii, Alaska, and Washington. Well, there's only one way to find out. Polls will be closing soon and we will see what's going on and perhaps even make projections.

*an hour later*

I have strange news for you all. We can now project ALL of those states and ALL of our state polls were correct! Bernie Sanders is our projected winner in Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington.

D-AK WIN.pngD-HI WIN.pngD-WA WIN.png

D-AK.PNGD-HI.PNGD-WA.PNG

US Map DEM.png

2372 to win! 

O'Malley - 1209
Clinton - 963
Sanders - 498

***Joe Biden has announced that he will not be seeking nomination at this time***

Also, our electoral map has tightened!

national map.PNG

Iowa is starting to look like a safe bet for Republicans.
Michigan has returned to its Democratic roots. For now. Wisconsin is still competitive.
Maine and New Hampshire are still redder than other New England states.
Kansas is still surprisingly close.
Montana, Texas, and Mississippi are now back to their Republican roots.
Arizona and Georgia are still close, but they now lean Republican.
Florida and Virginia have returned to their competitive status.
 

Next week's races:

North Dakota GOP Caucuses - Toss up
Wisconsin GOP Primary - Lean Trump
Wisconsin Dem Primary - Toss up

 

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*a week later*

Let's start with the Republicans and with an upset. We previously thought that Wisconsin was leaning Trump but that is not the case. We can now call Wisconsin and also North Dakota for Senator Cruz.

R-ND WIN.pngR-ND.PNG\

R-WI WIN.pngR-WI.PNG

 

In the Wisconsin Democratic Primary, it is as expected too close to call. Bernie Sanders currently has a narrow lead. 

D-WI CLOSE.png

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This is one of my favorite play by plays of all time. 

My current prediction on the Republican side is this going into a contested convention: 

Cruz - 1100ish
Trump - 700ish
Carson - 300ish
Kasich - 143
Rubio - 125
Fiorina - 86
Bush - 27

And this afterwards: 

Kasich - 160ish/ 1300ish
Cruz - 1200ish

Trump - 650ish (endorses Kasich)
Carson - 300ish (endorses Kasich) 
Rubio - 125 (endorses Kasich) 
Fiorina - 86 (endorses Kasich) 
Bush - 27 (endorses Kasich) 

Since VP selection is random, I'll just guess that Kasich picks Ayotte as his VP. 

On the Democratic side... 

O'Malley - 2200ish
Clinton - 2000ish
Sanders - 550ish

Sanders endorses Clinton, and O'Malley picks a random VP, I'll just guess that O'Malley picks Castro. 

For the general election, I predict that it'll start with a strong Democratic slant, and that Kasich/Ayotte will make some ground but never enough.

O'Malley/Castro: 308 EV, 51%
Kasich/Ayotte: 230 EV, 44%

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**AL GORE HAS ANNOUNCED THAT HE WILL NOT BE RUNNING AFTER NOT BEING INCLUDED ON BALLOTS IN WISCONSIN, STATE WHERE HE ACTUALLY LED FOR QUITE SOME TIME**
**Rick Santorum quietly announced that he won't be running at this time**

Anyway, Wisconsin is still too close to call. Hillary Clinton has now taken the lead by just less than 10,000 votes. 

D-WI CLOSE.png

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It took us too long to call Wisconsin that we can now also call Wyoming. 
In a surprising comeback, Hillary Clinton will win the State of Wisconsin.
In Wyoming, not a big surprise, Bernie Sanders is the winner.

D-WI WIN.pngD-WI.PNG

D-WY WIN.pngD-WY.PNG

And I wanna tell you that our electoral map is also starting to go back to normal as well. Kinda.

NATIONAL MAP.PNG

In addition to IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, VA, NC, and NH, which are traditional battlegrounds, we are also closely watching AZ, KS, TX, and GA due to unusually weak GOP support in these states. 

Also, CO and FL are starting to look safe for any Democrat. 

 

TUNE IN SHORTLY FOR COVERAGE OF BOTH PARTIES' PRIMARIES IN NEW YORK

Projections: Home turf advantage: CLINTON AND TRUMP

 

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Short update on something that we already knew. 

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will easily win the State of New York. Also, the girl is on fire and if Clinton is able to maintain her momentum, the DNC will be contested too! 

D-NY WIN.pngD-NY.PNG

R-NY WIN.pngR-NY.PNG

 

Next update:

DEM PRIMARIES:

Rhode Island - Bernie Sanders/Clinton - neck and neck polling between the two
Connecticut - Leans Clinton - 70% chance
Delaware - Solid Clinton - 95%
Maryland - ok interestingly, it's Solid Clinton - 91%
Pennsylvania - Pennsylvania - Solid Clinton - >99%

GOP PRIMARIES:

Connecticut - Solid Trump - 97%
Maryland - Likely Cruz - 85%
Pennsylvania - Leans Trump - 60%
Rhode Island - Toss up, slight Trump lead - 51%

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Lots of bases to cover so let's begin! 

Polls have just closed and we have a MAJOR, REALLY MAJOR, projection. Note that this is just a projection and any unexpected event may make us change it. 

Our decision desk is projecting that the RNC will be contested.

gop contested.png

...because Donald Trump is projected to win Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island while Ted Cruz will win Maryland. 

R-CT WIN.pngR-DE WIN.pngR-MD WIN.pngR-CT.PNGR-DE.PNGR-MD.PNG

R-PA WIN.pngR-RI WIN.pngR-PA.PNGR-RI.PNG

Here's the current GOP count:

GOP TOTAL.PNG

Now for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton will sweep ALL of the states and she has now taken the lead for nomination.

D-CT WIN.pngD-DE WIN.pngD-MD WIN.png

D-RI WIN.pngD-PA WIN.png

D-CT.PNGD-DE.PNGD-MD.PNGD-PA.PNGD-RI.PNG

Current Dem total:

DEM TOTAL.PNG

NEWS BITS:

Evan McMullin, Utah Republican, to run as independent! 

Upcoming: GOP and Dem primaries in INDIANA

Predictions:

Dem - Likely Clinton - 80%
GOP - Lean Trump - 60%

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Popular Vote/Electoral Vote win probabilities:

DEMOCRAT - 99.91%/99.80% 
REPUBLICAN - 0.09%/0.20%
Average EV: 330.2/207.8
(please ignore Clinton/Trump on the image)

ranking.png202XL.png

So I noticed that the game was overstating and understating how it labels states so I downloaded a simple excel file to make an election projection model. Here's where the electoral map currently stands. Left panel is each party's chances of winning a state

States to Watch:
NV AZ CO TX IA WI MI MS GA FL NC VA OH PA NH ME CT

Label:
Light blue/red - margin of less than 5%
Medium blue/red - margin between 5-10%
Dark blue/red - margin of over 10%

 

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Sooo about Indiana...

It looks like our upsetters are back and Ben Carson has dropped out without endorsing anyone.

And as I mentioned earlier, our upsetters are back 'bigly'. Ted Cruz and Martin O'Malley will win Indiana! 

D-IN WIN.pngR-IN WIN.png

D-IN.PNGR-IN.PNG

 

Upcoming!!! 
Democrats:
Guam - Clinton 95%
West Virginia - Too close to call

Republicans:
West Virginia - Likely Trump - 80%
Nebraska - Solid Trump - 95%

 

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It's getting closer and closer to the conventions and we still don't have any clear idea who the nominees are going to be. Anyway, polls have just closed and we have results trickling in. 

In Guam, Hillary Clinton is our projected winner. Not a big surprise. 

D-GU WIN.pngD-GU.PNG

In West Virginia, as expected, it is too close to call.

D-WV CLOSE.png

In Nebraska, it is too early to call but I can tell you that based on our exit polls, Donald Trump is in the lead. 

R-NE EARLY.png

And in West Virginia, another upset win by Ted Cruz!

R-WV WIN.pngR-WV.PNG

 

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On 30.1.2017 at 0:26 PM, CalebsParadox said:

This is one of my favorite play by plays of all time. 

My current prediction on the Republican side is this going into a contested convention: 

Cruz - 1100ish
Trump - 700ish
Carson - 300ish
Kasich - 143
Rubio - 125
Fiorina - 86
Bush - 27

And this afterwards: 

Kasich - 160ish/ 1300ish
Cruz - 1200ish

Trump - 650ish (endorses Kasich)
Carson - 300ish (endorses Kasich) 
Rubio - 125 (endorses Kasich) 
Fiorina - 86 (endorses Kasich) 
Bush - 27 (endorses Kasich) 

Since VP selection is random, I'll just guess that Kasich picks Ayotte as his VP. 

On the Democratic side... 

O'Malley - 2200ish
Clinton - 2000ish
Sanders - 550ish

Sanders endorses Clinton, and O'Malley picks a random VP, I'll just guess that O'Malley picks Castro. 

For the general election, I predict that it'll start with a strong Democratic slant, and that Kasich/Ayotte will make some ground but never enough.

O'Malley/Castro: 308 EV, 51%
Kasich/Ayotte: 230 EV, 44%

 

Hey, so your prediction is correct: The RNC will be contested, but Kasich has already dropped out so idk if he's still allowed to win. I'm not too well-versed when it comes to contested conventions. 

Your Democratic prediction seems to be on point, though. Hillary and O'Malley are jumping back and forth as the leader but if it continues, they may get a contested convention too. 

The GOP is already making some ground in my game's electoral map. We'll see how long it'll hold. 

Here's how it looks like after running my game's polls in a simulator:

nate silver.png

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Back to our update! West Virginia is still too close to call. I won't say it's crucial but in a very tight race, I will say that it is! 

D-WV CLOSE.png

Donald Trump has won Nebraska!

R-NE WIN.pngR-NE.PNG

 

*two hours later*

 

We can now call West Virginia for Bernie Sanders! 

D-WV WIN.pngD-WV.PNG

Tune in next for both parties' primaries in Oregon and the Democratic Primary in Kentucky! We are getting closer and closer to the home run. 

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Sooo our private polls in key states have stopped because the illuminati ran out of money. :( Oh well, I guess we'll just deal with public polls with high margins of error.

Anyway, polls have just closed in more states and we're nearing the end of the primary season! Let me repeat: the RNC will be contested and the DNC is on its way to that, too. And y'all it looks like there's a chance that O'Malley may get Bernied by Hillary Clinton. 

Now on to the uneventful GOP Primary in Oregon! Donald Trump is the winner in Oregon and his margin is YUGE! 

R-OR WIN.png R-OR.PNG

We have two Democratic primaries and we have a call for one of them. In Kentucky, Hillary Clinton is our projected winner.

D-KY WIN.pngD-KY.PNG

And in Oregon? It is too close to call between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.

D-OR CLOSE.png

 

 

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