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vcczar

Presidential Election 2020 Scenario Poll

Who Do you Think Will be the Strongest Polling Candidates by October 2019? For this I will include OFF candidates  

15 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will be the highest polling Democrat by October 2019? This includes OFF candidates. Assume they're all in the primaries. Please don't vote for someone because you want that person to poll the highest. Try to detach yourself from your own biases, please.

    • Sen. Elizabeth Warren - MA
    • Sen. Cory Booker - NJ
    • Sen. Sherrod Brown - OH
    • Sen. Martin Heinrich - NM
      0
    • Sen. Kamala Harris - CA
      0
    • Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand - NY
      0
    • Mr. Howard Schultz - WA
      0
    • Rep. Tulsi Gabbard - HI
    • Fmr Rep. Alan Grayson - FL
      0
    • Fmr Sec. Hillary Clinton - NY (OFF)
      0
    • Rep. Julian Castro - TX (OFF)
      0
    • Fmr VP Joe Biden - DE (OFF)
  2. 2. Who will be the highest polling Democrat by October 2019? This includes OFF candidates. Assume they're all in the primaries. Please don't vote for someone because you want that person to poll the highest. Try to detach yourself from your own biases, please.

    • Pres. Donald Trump - NY
    • Sen. Marco Rubio - FL
      0
    • Sen. Ted Cruz - TX
      0
    • Sen. Rand Paul - KY
      0
    • Fmr Gov. John Kasich - OH
      0
    • Sen. Lindsey Graham - SC
      0
    • Fmr Gov. Susana Martinez - NM
      0
    • Sen. Jon Huntsman - UT (OFF)
      0
    • Sen. Tom Cotton - AR (OFF)
      0
    • Sen. Ben Sasse - NE (OFF)
      0
  3. 3. Will You Post a Ranking of both parties from strongest candidate to weakest candidate in the comments below?

    • Yes.
      0
    • Not now, but I will later, if you remind me.
    • No.


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This is for my 2020 Scenario for the 3rd update. Please include a ranking of all the candidates, even the OFF candidates, with any comments that you think would be helpful. For instance, "Clinton would probably be the front-runner in 2020, if Booker and Biden aren't in the race, even though I list Warren first," for instance. 

Lastly, please don't rank these according to your bias, but rather, think about the primary electorate of both parties. 

I should also mention that this scenario assumes that Trump presidency is rather a controversial whirlwind. He's unpredictable, sometimes successful, but often courting disaster. The election assumes that his presidency will be somewhat modeled on his reckless, but successful, campaign for the presidency in 2016. Obviously, he could prove to be competent, and presidential. 

I will continued to update this election until Anthony makes the official 2020 scenario. 

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20 minutes ago, vcczar said:

This is for my 2020 Scenario for the 3rd update. Please include a ranking of all the candidates, even the OFF candidates, with any comments that you think would be helpful. For instance, "Clinton would probably be the front-runner in 2020, if Booker and Biden aren't in the race, even though I list Warren first," for instance.

Lastly, please don't rank these according to your bias, but rather, think about the primary electorate of both parties.

I should also mention that this scenario assumes that Trump presidency is rather a controversial whirlwind. He's unpredictable, sometimes successful, but often courting disaster. The election assumes that his presidency will be somewhat modeled on his reckless, but successful, campaign for the presidency in 2016. Obviously, he could prove to be competent, and presidential.

I will continued to update this election until Anthony makes the official 2020 scenario.

You asked "who will be the highest polling DEMOCRAT by October 2019?" for both the Democratic AND the Republican list.

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3 minutes ago, Patine said:

You asked "who will be the highest polling DEMOCRAT by October 2019?" for both the Democratic AND the Republican list.

Oops, thanks. Hopefully, people will know what I mean. I copy+pasted the first question into the second and then forgot to go back and change Democrat to Republican. 

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I think that Biden, if he were to run, would he the clear frontrunner. However, I chose Booker due to doubts of Biden running. As Biden is an off candidate, higher percentages would still make sense with him.

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Republican:

Trump, Rubio  Cruz/Kasich/Graham, Paul, Sasse/Cotton, Martinez, Huntsman.

Democratic:

Biden, Booker, Warren, Castro, Gillibrand, Brown, Schultz, Harris, Heinrich, Clinton, Gabbard, Grayson. (Note: I am far less certain of this list than I am of the Republicans.)

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9 hours ago, CalebsParadox said:

Republican:

Trump, Rubio  Cruz/Kasich/Graham, Paul, Sasse/Cotton, Martinez, Huntsman.

Democratic:

Biden, Booker, Warren, Castro, Gillibrand, Brown, Schultz, Harris, Heinrich, Clinton, Gabbard, Grayson. (Note: I am far less certain of this list than I am of the Republicans.)

Thanks for your list. I hope to see other lists, too. 

May I ask why you see Warren 3rd and Clinton so low on the list. It could happen, but I just want to see your reasoning. 

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If Biden runs he'll be the clear frontrunner. I chose Sherrod Brown because I don't think it's very likely that Biden will actually run.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

Thanks for your list. I hope to see other lists, too. 

May I ask why you see Warren 3rd and Clinton so low on the list. It could happen, but I just want to see your reasoning. 

I would expect Booker as a frontrunner with Warren at his heels. I don't expect Castro and Biden to run, but hypothetically that's where I see their support. 

I feel that Clinton has been far too damaged this election, and it could get worse in the next 4 years.

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Republican: Trump, Rubio/Cruz (somewhat of a separation after this), Paul, Martinez, Sasse/Cotton, Kasich, Huntsman, Graham

Democrat: Biden, Booker, Warren, Castro, Brown, Gillibrand, Clinton (separation after this), Harris, Schultz, Heinrich, Gabbard, Grayson

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7 hours ago, Jonathan Kudelka said:

This is unrealistic

Can you elaborate on what you mean? 

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Republican: 1st tier (Trump) 2nd tier (Rubio and Cruz), 3rd tier (Kasich), 4th tier (Paul), 5th tier (Martinez, Sasse, Cotton, Huntsman, Graham)

Democrat: 1st tier (Warren and Booker), 2nd tier (Biden, Harris and Gillibrand), 4th tier (Brown, Clinton, Schultz, Heinrich), 5th tier (Castro, Gabbard), 6th tier (Grayson)

I also think Clinton's past will hurt her in a 2020 run; however, I think she stands a chance if she recreates herself, and the other options end up not being appealing. Basically, a long shot. I think the fact that she conceded so quickly and called for others to accept Trump as president, someone diminishes some of the tarnish on her person. 

I think Biden is popular, but people will look elsewhere for a candidate. Warren is the default front-runner if she joins the race. Booker would be the default mainstream Democratic front-runner. Harris and Gillibrand could rise by January. Brown could surprise as an alternative to Warren. Schultz could be the Democratic analogy to Trump. Heinrich would be the moderate preference. Castro, Gabbard and Grayson are all longshots; although, Gabbard could be a dark horse. 

I think Trumo could face the same situation Carter did in the 1980 primaries--a true primary opponent. I think Rubio joins in only if Trump is clearly vulnerable. Cruz will probably run against Trump regardless, out of principal. Kasich or Huntsman will probably run for the moderate Republicans, but probably not both of them. Rand Paul will run if Trump's foreign policy and trade policies greatly disturb him. Martinez could be another moderate option. Sasse and Cotton could run if Trump turns too liberal over time. Graham would run if Trump weakens our geopolitical position overseas. 

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  •         
  •  
  • Democrats: Biden, Warren, Booker, Clinton, Gillibrand, Harris, Gabbard, Schutz, Castro, Brown, Heinrich, Grayson
  • Republicans: Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Martinez, Cotton, Sasse, Paul, Kasich, Huntsman, Graham
I think you should add both Sen. Kaine, and VP Pence as off candidates

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12 minutes ago, Sanser2016 said:
  •        
  •  
  • Democrats: Biden, Warren, Booker, Clinton, Gillibrand, Harris, Gabbard, Schutz, Castro, Brown, Heinrich, Grayson
  • Republicans: Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Martinez, Cotton, Sasse, Paul, Kasich, Huntsman, Graham
I think you should add both Sen. Kaine, and VP Pence as off candidates

 

 

 

 

Pence? Wasn't John Nance Garner the last time a sitting VP challenged the sitting President in a primary contest?

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11 minutes ago, Patine said:

 

 

 

 

Pence? Wasn't John Nance Garner the last time a sitting VP challenged the sitting President in a primary contest?

Yeah; although, Pence is a possibility. @Sanser2016 I might add them if they're is any more information about them possibly doing so. Kaine has already declined to run. Pence, I think, is seriously unlikely to run against Trump who is wildly popular in his home state, and his primary areas of strength. 

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But in this scenario Pence leaves the ticket, giving him an opportunity to be the Conservative knight in shining armor. In real life no I don't believe Pence would run against Trump and truthfully I think Trump will have one challenger or none, unless he tanks like Carter 1980.

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R: Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Cotton, Paul, Sasse, Kasich, Graham, Martinez, Huntsman

D: Biden, Brown, Booker, Warren, Harris, Castro, Heinrich, Shultz, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Grayson

 

@vcczar

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Republicans:  1st tier Trump. 2nd tier Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, and Paul.  Significant drop off.  3rd tier Martinez, Sasse, Cotton, Huntsman, and Graham

Democrats:  1st tier Warren, Booker, and Brown.  2nd tier Castro, Clinton, Biden, and Harris.  3rd tier Gillibrand, Schultz, and Gabbard.  4th tier Heinrich.  5th tier Grayson.

 

I'd give Clinton and Biden each less than a 5% chance of running, which would bump Gillibrand and Gabbard up to the 2nd tier.

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8 hours ago, jnewt said:

Republicans:  1st tier Trump. 2nd tier Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, and Paul.  Significant drop off.  3rd tier Martinez, Sasse, Cotton, Huntsman, and Graham

Democrats:  1st tier Warren, Booker, and Brown.  2nd tier Castro, Clinton, Biden, and Harris.  3rd tier Gillibrand, Schultz, and Gabbard.  4th tier Heinrich.  5th tier Grayson.

 

I'd give Clinton and Biden each less than a 5% chance of running, which would bump Gillibrand and Gabbard up to the 2nd tier.

Gillibrand has stated that she won't run in 2020. Although, she could and should change her mind (perhaps), she is at least pretending to have no intention for the job. 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Gillibrand has stated that she won't run in 2020. Although, she could and should change her mind (perhaps), she is at least pretending to have no intention for the job.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper (PM from 2006-2015) said numerous times in the 1980's he had no interest in politics, that it was a "loathesome line of work," and derided certain people he met with "there goes another Prime-Minister wannabe." It's amazing how some of these opinions about running for the top office of one's country can change.

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Gillibrand will almost certainly run in 2020, especially with those rumors of her having met with Clinton donors.... Biden I would give a small chance, and Clinton even smaller. I think Democrats realize they need younger, fresher faces.

I agree that Trump will be in a Carter position in 2020.

Republicans: Trump, Rubio, Paul/Cruz, Kasich, Martinez, Cotton, Sasse, Graham, Huntsman

Democrats: Warren, Booker, Biden/Clinton, Gillibrand, Brown, Harris, Gabbard, Schultz, Heinrich, Grayson (I could even constitute knocking him off the list)

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