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TheMiddlePolitical

Trump vs Clinton GE prediction V5

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On 9/17/2016 at 0:00 AM, Reagan04 said:

Hillary will be dead by then.

Do you mean literally or figuratively? If you mean literally, then you're sick in the head; If figuratively, then you're possibly delusional.  

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On September 16, 2016 at 11:03 PM, Reagan04 said:

  Image result for nah hillary

I think you'd better get ready to move to Russia, Reagan. Putin's hard-right-wing social agendas (even if they're based on Eastern Orthodox rather than Roman Catholic - but they're still both original Chelcedonian Churches - BTW, today's the anniversary of the Ecumenical Council of Chalcedon back in 451, which defined core tenets for a great majority of Christian denominations' practices, beliefs, and rituals today), and many of Putin's other ideas, which, contrary to many stereotypes perpetrated in the US, largely lingering, uncorrected from the Cold War, are no longer at all, or even remotely, Communist or Socialist, but follow many actual (if not stated or preached ideal) Republican policies, including some of their pipe dreams they just can't get implemented in the US without that peaky Supreme Court interfering. Perhaps you'd be more at home there.

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4 hours ago, Patine said:

I think you'd better get ready to move to Russia, Reagan. Putin's hard-right-wing social agendas (even if they're based on Eastern Orthodox rather than Roman Catholic - but they're still both original Chelcedonian Churches - BTW, today's the anniversary of the Ecumenical Council of Chalcedon back in 451, which defined core tenets for a great majority of Christian denominations' practices, beliefs, and rituals today), and many of Putin's other ideas, which, contrary to many stereotypes perpetrated in the US, largely lingering, uncorrected from the Cold War, are no longer at all, or even remotely, Communist or Socialist, but follow many actual (if not stated or preached ideal) Republican policies, including some of their pipe dreams they just can't get implemented in the US without that peaky Supreme Court interfering. Perhaps you'd be more at home there.

Im good , but please stay above the fray

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b19a97c108cb85c1612cae6f80639f84.png

 

This is considering the Demographic based polls that show Clinton at 85% with Hispanics, and high 90's% with African-Americans

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On ‎10‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 5:45 PM, Jonathan Kudelka said:

Here is mine following the Trump Lewd Scandal @TheMiddlePolitical

http://www.270towin.com/maps/3nnQX

3nnQX.png

This one is much more realistic than this

On ‎10‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 3:29 PM, Kauai said:

I've revised my GE prediction.

 

Capture.JPG

 

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@jvikings1

I think Trump wins AZ, and Clinton possibly OH. Other than that, your preferred map seems likely to me. 

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@Jonathan Kudelka

I could see Ohio going either way, but it hurts that their popular governor isn't endorsing Trump. I'll be surprised if Georgia goes for Clinton. 

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49 minutes ago, Jonathan Kudelka said:

@vcczar @jvikings1 Clinton is leading in Ohio by 0.5 RCP average that's a tie within the MOE and Trump is up by 5 on RCP average in Georgia

 

Clinton is not winning Georgia nor Arizona, bar Trump flat out saying he despises the states and all of their inhabitants in some grotesque way. However, I'm seeing the states be better for Clinton than for Obama. 

Ohio could really go either way, as could Florida. If I had to take a guess, I'd say Florida is 60% going to Clinton, and Ohio is closer to a true 50%, maybe even Trump with a higher chance if he gets some momentum.  

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16 hours ago, Jonathan Kudelka said:

Yes that's why I was appalled when I saw @jvikings1say that the Georgia going blue and Ohio going safe blue map is more realistic than mine. I say Clinton wins with 300-340 EV's (Florida and Ohio are toss ups)but nothing more than that certainly not 375

I was saying that yours was the more realistic.  I see Arizona, Ohio, and Maine's 2nd district has states/districts that could go wither way at this point.  Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina could possibly still go Trump, but that will be a little harder.  But, I think that Colorado and Pennsylvania have slipped out of his grasp

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11 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

I was saying that yours was the more realistic.  I see Arizona, Ohio, and Maine's 2nd district has states/districts that could go wither way at this point.  Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina could possibly still go Trump, but that will be a little harder.  But, I think that Colorado and Pennsylvania have slipped out of his grasp

I never expected Colorado to go Republican, to me it's one of those 'fake' swing states that's typically pretty obviously going one way. (Read: Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, Virginia)

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12 minutes ago, CalebsParadox said:

I never expected Colorado to go Republican, to me it's one of those 'fake' swing states that's typically pretty obviously going one way. (Read: Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, Virginia)

Trump was up by 4 in Colorado.  Virginia can be a swing state depending on the opponent.  Bush won it twice.  Bush also took Colorado twice.  Arizona, Georgia, and Minnesota are fake swing states. I would also put Pennsylvania in that category.

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33 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Trump was up by 4 in Colorado.  Virginia can be a swing state depending on the opponent.  Bush won it twice.  Bush also took Colorado twice.  Arizona, Georgia, and Minnesota are fake swing states. I would also put Pennsylvania in that category.

Didn't Bill Clinton win Georgia in one of his two electoral victories, or am I mistaken?

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

Didn't Bill Clinton win Georgia in one of his two electoral victories, or am I mistaken?

He did in 92, but that was with Perot and a lot has changed since then.

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I was thinking more of this election, historically many of those are swing states but it's safe to assume where some will go this time around.

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15 minutes ago, Jonathan Kudelka said:

What does that have to do with anything? Trump is up 5 on RCP average in Georgia

Obviously it has nothing to do with anything to a limited, linear, one-dimensional, narrow, tunnel-vision thinker who can't see past short-term immediately obvious context.

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2 minutes ago, Jonathan Kudelka said:

Well I assume it does given that was your statement on a Trump vs. Clinton GE prediction forum

Arguing with you is like arguing with a teenager. Oh, wait, how old did you say were, again... ?

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1 minute ago, Jonathan Kudelka said:

Why do you assume everything is an argument?

Because I've never seen a polite, civil correction from you. You always go and bite off the head, instead.

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Russian far-right-wing ultra-nationalist neo-fascist radical off-the-rails overly verbose and sensationalist populist State Duma (Russian lower house of parliament since 1993, named after the Imperial Parliament created by Tsar Nicholas II from 1906-1917) Deputy and leader of the very inappropriately-named Liberal Democratic of Russia Vladimir Zhirinovsky, whose party has NEVER voted against Putin in a legislative vote or motion and is the third-largest in seats behind United Russia and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, has just effectively endorsed Trump. That's pretty dubious, even scary.

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3 hours ago, Patine said:

Obviously it has nothing to do with anything to a limited, linear, one-dimensional, narrow, tunnel-vision thinker who can't see past short-term immediately obvious context.

The problem is that that election was not what would be called recent.  If Gore or Kerry or Obama would have taken Georgia, then that would be a much better comparison because it was within the last 4 Presidential elections.

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2 hours ago, Patine said:

Russian far-right-wing ultra-nationalist neo-fascist radical off-the-rails overly verbose and sensationalist populist State Duma (Russian lower house of parliament since 1993, named after the Imperial Parliament created by Tsar Nicholas II from 1906-1917) Deputy and leader of the very inappropriately-named Liberal Democratic of Russia Vladimir Zhirinovsky, whose party has NEVER voted against Putin in a legislative vote or motion and is the third-largest in seats behind United Russia and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, has just effectively endorsed Trump. That's pretty dubious, even scary.

Endorsements do not define a candidate.  The grand wizard of the California KKK endorsed Hillary, but that does not mean Hillary is for white supremacy.  Both candidates are not good people, and have been endorsed by not good people.  But, endorsements really do not matter these days.

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