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CalebsParadox

Results of 4795 Simulated Runs

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I figured I would share this to show how this game is a lot more balanced than some have thought. Trump does have a very slightly edge in wins (2%), but the average electoral vote is so close it's insane. 

4795 Runs'.png

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There's a simulation mode!?

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In the latest sneak peak. 

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On an off note, @admin_270, when you do plan on expanding the simulator, which I have quickly fallen in love with, I do recommend a few additional options that would help for getting a quick glance. 

1. a "Sort by" results option that allows us to sort by the closest elections, largest blowouts, strongest performances by whoever we want to look at, etc. 
2. Primaries of course!
3. Building off of 2, the ability to simulate the primaries separately or with the general as well, and being able to click on a certain election and get two tabs, one for the primary season and another for the general election. 
4. The electoral map already suggested in a previous thread. 

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7 minutes ago, CalebsParadox said:

In the latest sneak peak. 

2.3.8?

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Also, for the winner percentages and average electoral vote, it would be great if that automatically sorted by the highest on the bars. With scenarios with many parties, I cannot view the winner of most elections unless they happen to be one of the first few. 

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I have the latest sneak peak. Where did you find the sim mode?

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4 hours ago, JohnnyK said:

I wonder if @admin_270 uses the simulation model when developing to make it as close as possible, because that is VERY close, Green and Libertarians should be polling higher though

If you want the greens and libertarians getting higher percentages, get the scenario off the campaign site that gets daily poll updates.

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12 hours ago, lok1999 said:

fdd55b114bfd9546adda3db5a1db9bdc.png

 
Not signed in

I don't have that.

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5 hours ago, lok1999 said:

Did you download and install the latest sneak peek?

Where can I fond that, what number is it, I looked on the download page.

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Yes, it seems very balanced for the Sep. start. The Aug. start favors Trump, though, presumably because he has more time. Note this is with %s roughly 50-50. More accurate as of now it seems would be a starting % for Sep. 1st of Clinton +5% (ignoring possible 'Shy Trump' effect). I'll be adding the ability to add polling data for the general, and then updating the starting %s for the Aug. and Sep. starts.

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@CalebsParadox @admin_270 @Reagan04 @JohnnyK @Dallas

I just did 1,000 simulations of the polls updated for August (I edited a scenario soon or a day after August 10th about 3 weeks ago). This was when Trump was doing his worst in the polls. As such, the simulation showed that Trump had a 1/1,000 chance of winning. Clinton won 998/1,000. Apparently, neither got 270 in one-match up. 

Average PV: Trump 40.4%, Clinton 49.4%, Johnson 8.3%, Stein 1.9%

Average EV: Trump 133.2, Clinton 400.5, Johnson 4.2, Stein 0.0

Clinton 507, Trump 25, Johnson 6 was Clinton's best showing

Clinton 267, Trump 260, Johnson 11 is with no one getting 270. 

I couldn't find the Trump victory in two attempts, since it was so buried in the unsortable statistics. This also means that Clinton might have a larger victory. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

@CalebsParadox @admin_270 @Reagan04 @JohnnyK @Dallas

I just did 1,000 simulations of the polls updated for August (I edited a scenario soon or a day after August 10th about 3 weeks ago). This was when Trump was doing his worst in the polls. As such, the simulation showed that Trump had a 1/1,000 chance of winning. Clinton won 998/1,000. Apparently, neither got 270 in one-match up. 

Average PV: Trump 40.4%, Clinton 49.4%, Johnson 8.3%, Stein 1.9%

Average EV: Trump 133.2, Clinton 400.5, Johnson 4.2, Stein 0.0

Clinton 507, Trump 25, Johnson 6 was Clinton's best showing

Clinton 267, Trump 260, Johnson 11 is with no one getting 270. 

I couldn't find the Trump victory in two attempts, since it was so buried in the unsortable statistics. This also means that Clinton might have a larger victory. 

 

wow, just wow

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