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YoungCTrep

My Predictions

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As you can see, Blue, Red are for Bush and Kerry solid states, grey are swing states, pink are slight Kerry leads, light blue is slight Bush lead.

Note California is a swing state at this point, because of Arnold's speech and close polling pre-convention.

If Kerry loses California, he will probably lose every other swing state as well....

However the Election stands like this....

Bush 313, Kerry 116, Undecided 109....

However if I would have to but the undecided states in favorof one canidate...

Bush-334, Kerry-204, much closer

And Bush's huge convention bounce may not last very long

Conecticut is a slight Kerry lead because polls show Kerry up by only 7%...pre-convention.

California polls showed Kerry up from around 5-12% pre-convention, but it will likely see a dramatic shift, at least for the next week.

I predict California, will go back to Kerry by 4-6% by Nov. 2nd.

I did this ONLY using the Time poll, and polls from pre-convention, so we wil see how accurate I am...

a 10% margin, is a landslide 200 EV margin, so we will see how it comes down on paper....

Kerry may be down 10 points, but may still be Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio from victory...

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I think Miller turned off those who already didn't like the President, inspired Bush's supporters, and spoke as a wake-up call to those in the middle. Anyone I know who was in the middle who heard Miller's speech thought it was great, powerful, and one of them I spoke with is now voting for Bush.

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Liberal Democrat,

If the GOP only received a bounce because the public was focused on them during the four day convention then whay did Kerry receive a negative bounce when the public was focused on his convention?

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Liberal Democrat,

If the GOP only received a bounce because the public was focused on them during the four day convention then whay did Kerry receive a negative bounce when the public was focused on his convention?

Exactly. Kerry is quite possibly the worst candidate the Democrats could have put up. He has run a poor campaign and I predict that Bush could keep this bounce for a while, especially if he does well in the debates, which I believe he can do. Bush comes accross as a more approachable, down to Earth person in settings like that and people will like that more than Kerry, in my opinion. But, that's just my opinion.

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I am a Kerry supporter and have been saying he would lose for months, even when the state polls showed that he would win with 327 electoral votes, but I didn't think it would be this bad. The Swift Boat Vets are full of it, some of those guys were praising John Kerry a few years ago (so was Zell Miller!). The ads seemed to have created a vacuum that Bush filled during the RNC.

As for the debates, I think all Kerry people will say that Kerry won, and the opposite with Bush supporters. I think they will have a huge effect on the undecideds. There are some people who will say, "Wow, this Kerry guy is really smart" and others who will say, "I sure would like to have lunch with George Bush." We'll see which kind of person holds the majority.

A sidenote: Did anyone see Zell Miller on Hardball? He's lost it.

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I think Zell Miller is a mental case....

I thought the points Cheney brought up vs. Kerry were fair, Miller was just making half of the stuff up by taking it totaly out of context...

Remember how pre- Swift Boat ad, Kerry was running soley on his Vitenam Service??

Well his voting record is awful....

The democrats should have put Gephardt, and I think Joe Biden would beat Bush in the general election...He's not a liberal and unlike John Kerry, Joe Biden could have gotten McCain to be VP.... If I could vote I would vote for thAT TICKET...

And kerry is running the worst campaign since Monadale...He's running on his Nam service...and he voting against the 87 billion....that vote right there put him down 2-3%

I think Dean wouldnt win but would make it close....

Right now, Bush will have a Clinton like re-election win, which is a "weak" blowout.... like '80, '88, '96

'84 was a landslide....

And BTW, it also hurts Kerry that he has voted only 36% in 2004...100% part support...30% presidental support...all the worst in the Senate

To comapre Biden: 92% attendence, 90% part support, 46% presidental support...

Edwards: 67% attendence 97% part support 40% presdtial support

AND FOR THOSE WHO THINK MCCAIN IS A MODERATE:

McCain:Attendence:99% PArty Support:86% Pred. Support: 91%

He's as conservative as Hillary Clinton is liberal....

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In defense of John Kerry's recent voting record

1. Often when it is clear that a bill will pass the senate, some senators pledge a symbolic vote against some of its provisions. Kerry's vote was to protest the provision giving billions to contractors. Obviously he does ant our troops protected.

2. Since Kerry is always out campaigning, he only comes back to vote in close cases, when the democrats really need him. That's why his recent record appears more partisan and liberal than he really is.

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