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vcczar

Early 2016 predicton

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I know this is early, but if things stand as they are, I expect a rather significant Clinton victory. News outlets are stating that Trump is way behind in cash, people are unendorsing him for racist comments, people are considering the Libertarian alternative, and some GOP donors are saying they may support Clinton. In Texas, I have several conservative friends that have never voted Democrat and they are voting for Clinton this election, expecting to vote Republican again in 2020 when Trump loses badly. The media will probably focus more on Trump's faults than Clinton's, regardless of whichever are worse faults. Sanders says he will do whatever he can to help Clinton with Trump, even though he's still in the race. Warren has endorsed Clinton. This will probably lead to more acceptance of Clinton. I expect most of the current undecideds who will vote to go for Clinton. As such here is my June 11 prediction:

Popular vote/EV

Clinton 52% 406

Trump 43% 132

Johnson 4%  0

Stein 1% 0

Map is here: http://www.270towin.com/maps/qgld2

I think after Clinton's victory, the Republican Party will change drastically in order to have a shot in 2020. I think Clinton's presidency will only be an extension of Obama, but I expect the economy to be good enough that Clinton could have an easy shot for reelection in 2020 if the Republican Party can alter itself into a cohesive and likable party with respectable national candidates, rather than regional like a Cruz. If you notice, Clinton and the Democrats in general field national candidates. Clinton can't be pinned as a Northeasterner. She fits everywhere, even where Sanders did really well. Trump's success is due in part to being the only national Republican doing well in the campaign. I think Clinton may serve one term and hand the reigns over to Warren, if she's the VP. If the Republicans don't change, then I could see the Democrats holding the executive every election. Republicans, who like to stay regional, will probably consistently do well in the house and at the gubernatorial levels. The Senate will probably be 50/50 for awhile, if both parties don't change. However, Democrats will have to alter themselves as well in anticipation of the Republicans shaping up. I'm not sure how much the Sanders/Warren wing will do in a Democratic alteration, since the Democrats shouldn't become regional themselves. In short, the most national party will generally do best. This has definitely been that case for nearly every previous election, starting with the first, when Washington was acceptable to the entire country, while the rest, Adams, Hamilton, Madison, Pinckney would have to modify their political opinions to be more all encompassing. Clinton as much as I dislike her (I voted Sanders) is a preeminent national politician this will serve her well in the general election -- much better than it would in the primaries, where regionality can have certain perks. 

 

 

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