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Post Super Tuesday elections

  

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  1. 1. Which states will Governor Romney win?

    • Kansas caucuses
      0
    • Alabama primary
      0
    • Hawaii caucuses
      8
    • Mississippi primary
      0
    • Missouri caucuses
      0
    • Illinois primary
      7
    • Louisiana primary
      1
    • Maryland primary
      7
    • Texas primary
      0
    • Wisconsin primary
      5
    • Connecticut primary
      8
    • New York primary
      7
    • Pennsylvania primary
      3
    • Indiana primary
      4
    • North Carolina primary
      1
    • West Virginia primary
      3
    • Nebraska primary
      1
    • Oregon primary
      8
    • California primary
      8
    • New Jersey primary
      8
  2. 2. Which states will Senator Santorum win?

    • Kansas caucuses
      8
    • Alabama primary
      2
    • Hawaii caucuses
      0
    • Mississippi primary
      3
    • Missouri caucuses
      8
    • Illinois primary
      1
    • Louisiana primary
      3
    • Maryland primary
      0
    • Texas primary
      5
    • Wisconsin primary
      3
    • Connecticut primary
      0
    • New York primary
      1
    • Pennsylvania primary
      4
    • Indiana primary
      4
    • North Carolina primary
      5
    • West Virginia primary
      6
    • Nebraska primary
      5
    • Oregon primary
      1
    • California primary
      0
    • New Jersey primary
      0
  3. 3. Which states will Speaker Gingrich win?

    • Kansas caucuses
      2
    • Alabama primary
      7
    • Hawaii caucuses
      1
    • Mississippi primary
      6
    • Missouri caucuses
      1
    • Illinois primary
      1
    • Louisiana primary
      5
    • Maryland primary
      1
    • Texas primary
      4
    • Wisconsin primary
      1
    • Connecticut primary
      1
    • New York primary
      1
    • Pennsylvania primary
      1
    • Indiana primary
      1
    • North Carolina primary
      3
    • West Virginia primary
      1
    • Nebraska primary
      3
    • Oregon primary
      0
    • California primary
      1
    • New Jersey primary
      1


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Hey guys! What are your thoughts for the Post Super Tuesday primaries? I think Governor Mitt Romney will be able to get enough delegates in the remaining contests, but even if he doesn't reach the magic number, he would be the Republican nominee.

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It was a satisfactory night for Romney, winning 7 of the 11 contests; not enough to end it, but he narrowly fended off Santorum's surge in Ohio just like he did in Michigan last week.

The media narrative is also a bit unfair, as McCain's performance was much weaker than Romney in many ways through Super Tuesday 2008, but they easily crowned him.

Even with the Democrats, Clinton beat Obama in Ohio by 8 points on March 4, 2008.

However, the rest of March does not look good for Romney, it being filled with southern states.

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It was a satisfactory night for Romney, winning 7 of the 11 contests; not enough to end it, but he narrowly fended off Santorum's surge in Ohio just like he did in Michigan last week.

The media narrative is also a bit unfair, as McCain's performance was much weaker than Romney in many ways through Super Tuesday 2008, but they easily crowned him.

Even with the Democrats, Clinton beat Obama in Ohio by 8 points on March 4, 2008.

However, the rest of March does not look good for Romney, it being filled with southern states.

McCain was much stronger in South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee than Romney was... Romney will need some help to carry the the South in the General election...

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McCain was much stronger in South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee than Romney was...

McCain won South Carolina by only 3 points with 33% of the vote. Romney this year placed second with 28%.

McCain lost Georgia with 32% of the vote to Mike Huckabee. Romney this year lost Georgia with 26% of the vote to Newt Gingrich, a native son.

McCain also lost Tennessee like Romney.

You need better examples.

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McCain won South Carolina by only 3 points with 33% of the vote. Romney this year placed second with 28%.

McCain lost Georgia with 32% of the vote to Mike Huckabee. Romney this year lost Georgia with 26% of the vote to Newt Gingrich, a native son.

McCain also lost Tennessee like Romney.

You need better examples.

McCain won South Carolina won by 3 points, Romney lost 12 points. If Thompson wasn't on the ballot, Huckabee probably would have won by as much as Gingrich.

Georgia was a bad example because it was Newt Gingrich home state.

Tennessee (and Alabama in 2008) is different though... Huckabee (Southern candidate) barely won over McCain(moderate, next in line) and over Romney (conservative alternative to McCain)

in 2012 Santorum (conservative alternative to Romney) won by 9% over Romney (moderate, next in line) and over Gingrich (Southern candidate)

Santorum also crushed Romney in Oklahoma a state McCain won in 2008

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im from Idaho and im a little surprised that Ron Paul didn't do very good here he was doing great in polls here, overall as i look on the map mitt Romney crushed santourm, Paul, and newt in eastern Idaho but did ok in the western part of Idaho

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Yeah, that is interesting. I think the reason why Paul has lost in states where he was leading previously (IOWA, Idaho, Maine) was because he is still the unconventional choice for the GOP. While people have become more accepting of him as of late, he is still not a "safe" choice by definition for the GOP.

im from Idaho and im a little surprised that Ron Paul didn't do very good here he was doing great in polls here, overall as i look on the map mitt Romney crushed santourm, Paul, and newt in eastern Idaho but did ok in the western part of Idaho

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...well... it is sarah palin's state :wacko: ... anything can happen there...

and well Alaska also went to Romney with Ron Paul with a third place with 24% to santorums 29% and Romney's 32% im suprised i thought Paul would do good to there

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good points but Ohio was close i thought rick wold win in the end but almost all the rural counties were done voting and Cuyahoga County which includes Cleveland Ohio only had 41% of the vote cast and Romney was winning that county

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Yeah. It was kind of ridiculous how long it took them to report all the returns...

good points but Ohio was close i thought rick wold win in the end but almost all the rural counties were done voting and Cuyahoga County which includes Cleveland Ohio only had 41% of the vote cast and Romney was winning that county

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Tennessee (and Alabama in 2008) is different though... Huckabee (Southern candidate) barely won over McCain(moderate, next in line) and over Romney (conservative alternative to McCain)

in 2012 Santorum (conservative alternative to Romney) won by 9% over Romney (moderate, next in line) and over Gingrich (Southern candidate)

Santorum also crushed Romney in Oklahoma a state McCain won in 2008

Santorum "crushed" Romney in Oklahoma? He only won by 6 points.

Romney lost to Santorum by 9 points in Tennessee. McCain lost to Huckabee by 3 points.

In all, the results from a few of these small states do not disprove my original contention that "McCain's performance was much weaker than Romney (2012) in many ways through Super Tuesday 2008".

McCain in first contests:

Iowa - distant 4th place. 2012 - Romney almost tied for first place.

New Hampshire - won by 5 points. 2012 - Romney won by 16 points.

Michigan - lost to native son Romney. 2012 - Romney win.

Nevada - distant third place. 2012 - Romney win.

South Carolina - won by 3 points; had three conservative challengers. 2012 - Romney loss by 12 points, but received 28% of the vote compared to 15% four years earlier.

Florida - won by 5 points. 2012 - Romney won by 14 points.

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Santorum "crushed" Romney in Oklahoma? He only won by 6 points.

Romney lost to Santorum by 9 points in Tennessee. McCain lost to Huckabee by 3 points.

In all, the results from a few of these small states do not disprove my original contention that "McCain's performance was much weaker than Romney (2012) in many ways through Super Tuesday 2008".

McCain in first contests:

Iowa - distant 4th place. 2012 - Romney almost tied for first place.

New Hampshire - won by 5 points. 2012 - Romney won by 16 points.

Michigan - lost to native son Romney. 2012 - Romney win.

Nevada - distant third place. 2012 - Romney win.

South Carolina - won by 3 points; had three conservative challengers. 2012 - Romney loss by 12 points, but received 28% of the vote compared to 15% four years earlier.

Florida - won by 5 points. 2012 - Romney won by 14 points.

My point is Romney is weaker in the South than John McCain was. Romney is yet to win a Southern state. That is a problem.

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Why?

McCain did better in the South. Romney needs lock the South in for the general election. Romney will have to work hard to keep those southern states not to mention that he has to win back Virginia and North Carolina. He needs a Southern governor as VP.

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McCain did better in the South. Romney needs lock the South in for the general election. Romney will have to work hard to keep those southern states not to mention that he has to win back Virginia and North Carolina. He needs a Southern governor as VP.

If Romney is going to have to "work hard" to keep states like Tennessee and Oklahoma in the Republican column against Obama, then he has already lost by a landslide.

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If Romney is going to have to "work hard" to keep states like Tennessee and Oklahoma in the Republican column against Obama, then he has already lost by a landslide.

Romney will win Oklahoma in landside, but quite frankly social conservatives in the South are not likely to vote for a Mormon. They don't trust Romney. Putting a socially conservative governor from the South should alleviate their fears.

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Romney will win Oklahoma in landside, but quite frankly social conservatives in the South are not likely to vote for a Mormon. They don't trust Romney. Putting a socially conservative governor from the South should alleviate their fears.

Why should Romney kowtow to social conservatives? McCain picked Palin as VP due to the same concerns you echo, but throwing red meat was worthless, as he was destroyed by Obama among independents, women, Latinos, etc. These middle voters have become an even greater share of the electorate since 2008.

Social conservatives have an outsized, extreme influence on the Republican primaries, but they need to be later forgotten if Romney wants to win the general election.

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Why should Romney kowtow to social conservatives? McCain picked Palin as VP due to the same concerns you echo, but throwing red meat was worthless, as he was destroyed by Obama among independents, women, Latinos, etc. These middle voters have become an even greater share of the electorate since 2008.

Palin was and still is a moron. Picking her energized the base until the economy collasped and people figured out Palin was moron, McCain looked like he might actually win. Romney has to appeal to the swing voters instead appealing to base because base will never like him unless he chooses a conservative VP.

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Palin was and still is a moron. Picking her energized the base until the economy collasped and people figured out Palin was moron, McCain looked like he might actually win. Romney has to appeal to the swing voters instead appealing to base because base will never like him unless he chooses a conservative VP.

Trouble is, if he picks the wrong conservative, as McCain did, he will begin to alienate the moderates and swing voters.

If Romney can't excite the conservative Republican base, they won't see much difference between him and Obama, and won't bother to vote. If he can excite the Republican base, it will be at the cost of alienating moderates. Either way, Obama stands to benefit. With the economy recovering, Obama's approval ratings decisively in the net positive, and crawling closer and closer to the 50's, and the primaries campaign harming Romney to the extent that Obama has opened a wide lead against Romney in head to head polling.

What will be interesting is Gingrich's roll in the weeks to come. The southern states to follow this March will not play out nicely for Romney, that much is a given. But if Gingrich has a bad month, with Santorum cleaning up, there will be increasing pressure for him to drop out. Then Gingrich can feed his ego by playing kingmaker, effectively deciding who wins the nomination by endorsing them.

But, of course, with the economy recovering, the primaries are much of a triviality. Regardless of whoever is burdened with being the Republican nominee, Obama wins.

I read an interesting comment recently, which suggested that Santorum isn't seeking to win the nomination, but just to build up a base of support, and a name for himself, and then see Obama beat Romney in the general. So that in 2016, he can run a more organised and stronger primaries campaign, with a platform that the Republican parties experiment with a moderate failed to topple Obama, and that Republicans should return to their roots and support a true Republican.

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Trouble is, if he picks the wrong conservative, as McCain did, he will begin to alienate the moderates and swing voters.

If Romney can't excite the conservative Republican base, they won't see much difference between him and Obama, and won't bother to vote. If he can excite the Republican base, it will be at the cost of alienating moderates. Either way, Obama stands to benefit. With the economy recovering, Obama's approval ratings decisively in the net positive, and crawling closer and closer to the 50's, and the primaries campaign harming Romney to the extent that Obama has opened a wide lead against Romney in head to head polling.

What will be interesting is Gingrich's roll in the weeks to come. The southern states to follow this March will not play out nicely for Romney, that much is a given. But if Gingrich has a bad month, with Santorum cleaning up, there will be increasing pressure for him to drop out. Then Gingrich can feed his ego by playing kingmaker, effectively deciding who wins the nomination by endorsing them.

But, of course, with the economy recovering, the primaries are much of a triviality. Regardless of whoever is burdened with being the Republican nominee, Obama wins.

I read an interesting comment recently, which suggested that Santorum isn't seeking to win the nomination, but just to build up a base of support, and a name for himself, and then see Obama beat Romney in the general. So that in 2016, he can run a more organised and stronger primaries campaign, with a platform that the Republican parties experiment with a moderate failed to topple Obama, and that Republicans should return to their roots and support a true Republican.

You can have both moderates and the base, it depends on the candidate and VP candidate.

http://www.realclear...roval-1044.html approval 48.8% disapproval 47.4% That doesn't look like decisively net positive. As I said before head to head polling doesn't matter at this stage. Unemployment remains at 8.3%. Any pundit who has any credibility would say that the race is toss-up between the President and Romney.

As for Gingrich endorsing Santorum, Nate Silver said "But that would be just the first step for Mr. Santorum — at best, a necessary but not sufficient condition for a comeback. He’ll need to find some further means by which he can eat into Mr. Romney’s coalition, and he’ll need to do so in a hurry since 21 states have already voted." http://fivethirtyeig...thout-gingrich/ Also Romney has a 37% chance in Alabama compared to Gingrich is leading with a 40% chance and Mississippi Romney has 70% chance compared Gingrich's 26%.

I think it would be hard for Santorum to make a comeback and win the nomination, more likely he would waste Romney's time and money that would be better spent in the general election.

Could Santorum be preparing for 2016 if Romney loses? Most definitely.

But this whole thing about true Republicans, returning to their roots, and experiment with a moderate, it BS.

The true Republican party cared about African Americans, the middle class and working class (Theodore Roosevelt) a 92 percent marginal income tax rate (Dwight Eisenhower).

The Republican party is no where near their roots.

Rick Santorum represents rich white men who hate women, minorities and literally wants the Christian version of Sharia law in the United States represents the "true" Republican party today

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Alfonzo, you are either trying to make POLLWONK and I angry or you can only see pro-Obama facts and anti-Romney views from la-la land. You should be more impartial in your analysis like myself or POLLWONK. I voted in a Democratic primary in my home state. I am a Progressive, but that doesn't mean I can't be objective on Republican or Conservative policy if they work or not even if I disagree with most of it, or can see how the Republican primary election and the general election is shaping up. You didn't respond to my Progressive criticism of President Obama.

POLLWONK and I would get more out of the conservation if you do analysis not advocacy. Thank you!

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Alfonzo, you are either trying to make POLLWONK and I angry or you can only see pro-Obama facts and anti-Romney views from la-la land. You should be more impartial in your analysis like myself or POLLWONK. I voted in a Democratic primary in my home state. I am a Progressive, but that doesn't mean I can't be objective on Republican or Conservative policy if they work or not even if I disagree with most of it, or can see how the Republican primary election and the general election is shaping up. You didn't respond to my Progressive criticism of President Obama.

POLLWONK and I would get more out of the conservation if you do analysis not advocacy. Thank you!

Rich words, considering I have definitely seen them being true of you and pollwonk. I really only ever see you and pollwonk working under the assumption that Romney has basically won the nomination and the presidency. You've made threads about who his vice president is going to be for crying out loud. In reality, right now, it looks more like Obama will be reelected than not.

If you want to be objective, then unemployment is lower than it was when Obama took office, and is the lowest it has been during the entirity of Obama's presidency. Objective analysis says that the raw unemployment figure isn't what matters, but the change in unemployment. Right now, objectively, based on economic measures pushed to death by Republicans, argued extensively by you and pollwonk, Obama looks set for reelection.

As for the primaries, yes, it does look quite likely that Romney will be the nominee. Just like it looked likely he would win Iowa or Colorado a week before they voted. These primaries have shown quite resoundingly that things can change very quickly. So whilst it looks right now that Romney has a good chance of avoiding a brokered convention, you would be foolish to say it won't happen. I've pretty much given up trying to make any predictions about these primaries. I'm just sitting back and watching the Republicans burn. Obama will almost certainly be reelected, so the primaries are just entertainment, watching four Republicans fight over who gets to lose on November 6th.

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Rich words, considering I have definitely seen them being true of you and pollwonk. I really only ever see you and pollwonk working under the assumption that Romney has basically won the nomination and the presidency. You've made threads about who his vice president is going to be for crying out loud. In reality, right now, it looks more like Obama will be reelected than not.

If you want to be objective, then unemployment is lower than it was when Obama took office, and is the lowest it has been during the entirity of Obama's presidency. Objective analysis says that the raw unemployment figure isn't what matters, but the change in unemployment. Right now, objectively, based on economic measures pushed to death by Republicans, argued extensively by you and pollwonk, Obama looks set for reelection.

As for the primaries, yes, it does look quite likely that Romney will be the nominee. Just like it looked likely he would win Iowa or Colorado a week before they voted. These primaries have shown quite resoundingly that things can change very quickly. So whilst it looks right now that Romney has a good chance of avoiding a brokered convention, you would be foolish to say it won't happen. I've pretty much given up trying to make any predictions about these primaries. I'm just sitting back and watching the Republicans burn. Obama will almost certainly be reelected, so the primaries are just entertainment, watching four Republicans fight over who gets to lose on November 6th.

Romney HAS basically won the nomination. He is has a least a 50% to chance to in the election. Obama definately not set for reelection and I never argued for Republican or Conservative economic policy. Unemployment remains at 8.3%. The economy has picked up enough that Obama wouldn't get crushed today. I am not confident that economy will be strong enough for Obama's relection. Caucaus are bad examples because Santorum gets a boost because his supporters are more willing to caucaus for him.

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None of you are objective. You're all trying to manipulate the facts and data to suit what you want to happen. Even trying to make predictions on who is going to win the general election this early would be silly. Right now it seems to be trending for Obama. A few months ago it looked like he was dead in the water a few months from now it may look like that again. It isn't necessarily about the economic data but about how its spun.

If unemployment falls below 8%, then we can truly say that the GOP is in trouble. One of Romney's major attacks against Obama is that he promised that if we passed the stimulus unemployment would be below 8%. Well, if it does drop below 8%, Obama can easily claim that what he has done has worked, it just took a little longer. Not only that, he'll drop the populist tax the rich routine, which could further help the economy because he's no longer scaring the people who create jobs in this country.

On the flip side, one bit of bad economic data from anywhere in the world could put Obama right back where he was last year. If the unemployment rate creeps up for some reason, even if its by very little and even if the general trend shows it going down, the GOP can once again use it to say Obama's policies have failed. Many things can make this happen. Hell it could even be a statistical anomaly, it could be a war in the middle east or something happening in Europe or even another debt showdown. So much of how people vote, and how people behave economically depends on expectations and the general mood of the country. Since people tend to give the president way too much credit/blame for what is happening, the economic climate is probably going to dictate the election results.

That being said, what's going on in the primary season is hurting Romney. Its making him run to the right on issues that should never even be discussed, and the question becomes whether he can get back to the center in a reasonable way that doesn't make the flip flopper image worse. McCain had this problem in 2008. The most visible of these shifts to the right has been on immigration. Romney has always been a relative moderate on the issue, but his opponents dragged him to the right. Latinos are going to be crucial this year and if he alienates them he has no chance. He can mediate that by picking Marco Rubio, who I think is his best choice. At the end of the day, the base is going to come for him anyway. Rubio soothes some of the fears of not only the Latino, but of the Tea Party, who he is worshiped by. Theres a perception that Romney is going to have trouble with the base during the GE. That's simply not true. The base isn't voting for Romney because Santorum is such an attractive candidate to them. Not only that, the base is dwindling. The Tea Party is arguably the largest faction in the GOP right now. That being said, Romney is still pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, pro-gun etc. Or he claims to be. The base will vote for Romney because no matter how they look at it he's better than Obama on almost every issue to them. Romney's greatest problem is not allowing Santorum to pull him too far to the right, and picking a running mate who will alleviate some of the problems the candidate can't alleviate some of the problems the candidate can't fix themselves. Even though Romney shouldn't worry too much about the right-wing of the party he still can go so far to the center that they simply don't turn out. However, the likelihood of the right-wing running away from him if he moves too far to the center is far less than the independents running away from him if he moves to far to the right. And unlike the base/right/Tea Party/whatever, the independents will go to Obama. So Romney needs to move to the center, and hope his running mate can sooth the concerns of the right, while at the same time appealing to some key demographics. And who can do that? Marco Rubio. He gives you excites the Tea Party, he's acceptable to the base (if they'll vote for a Mormon they'll vote for someone who used to be), and he will win some Latinos. Picking Rubio can maximize Romney's chance of winning but at the end of the day the economy will still determine who wins the election. Not necessarily the raw economic data, but the perception, and the manipulation by both parties.

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