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Economy Issue

Economy  

12 members have voted

  1. 1. What is the most likely forecast for the 2012 Economy?

    • Economic boom. Big Improvement.
      0
    • Steady economy. Moderate Improvement.
      2
    • Sluggish Economy. Minimal Improvement.
      4
    • Struggling Economy. Minimal to Minor Losses.
      4
    • Unsteady Economy. Moderate losses.
      0
    • Economic Crash. Big fall!
      2
  2. 2. Where will unemployment likely stand on Election Day 2012?

    • 10% or higher
      0
    • 9.9 to 9.5%
      0
    • 9.4 to 9%
      3
    • 8.9 to 8.5%
      3
    • 8.4 to 8%
      4
    • 7.9 to 7.5%
      2
    • 7.4% to 7%
      0
    • 6.9% to 6.5%
      0
    • 6% or lower
      0
  3. 3. Given the options you chose, how much will President Obama be able to tout his economic resume?

    • Yes. Obama was the "Jobs President"
      0
    • Alot. He did help improve the jobs environment, though he did fail in some other areas.
      2
    • Mixed. It helped a little bit, but hurt in other areas.
      1
    • Not really. The economy will still be sluggish.
      6
    • No. Obama was a jobs killing President.
      3


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Obama's approval looks a lot better than 45%, if you look at all the polls and not just Gallup, which seems to be considerably underestimating his approval, relative to other pollsters.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Average at the moment? 48.8% approval. He is in net approval in nearly all surveys of his approval (aside from a few ties, and the odd -1).

And you and elliot argued that Gallup's surveying of unemployment was not reliable. So you can't really use it in your arguments, since you rejected me using it in previous arguments.

Also, look at this.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Romney has suffered a HUGE drop against Obama in head-to-head matchups. Obama opening up a significantly large lead, the size of which hasn't been seen since June. Yes, your argument that Obama is in trouble because of good but not great polling against Romney in head-to-head matchups is very certainly thoroughly squashed. Sorry about that.

Gallup's approval rating are good and what a polling organization should be polling. Gallup's unemployment are not official and Obama and Romney head to head match ups is not very predictive at this time. It is good snapshot were we are now.

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Gallup's approval rating are good and what a polling organization should be polling. Gallup's unemployment are not official and Obama and Romney head to head match ups is not very predictive at this time. It is good snapshot were we are now.

Alright, I'm interested. Given that Gallup, compared to other pollsters, appear to understate Obama's approval ratings, would you care to give reasons why other pollsters, by your claims, are overstating Obama's approval ratings? I am very curious about the disparity between Gallup polling and other major pollsters, so if you have any insights, please do share them.

As for head to head matchups not being predictive, I completely agree with you. It was pollwonk who tried to use them over the last few months as evidence that Obama was going to lose reelection.

A side note, the model Nate came up with that pollwonk was citing heavily, which you haved cited in the past, does not quite work the way pollwonk thinks it does. You're supposed to input Obama's current approval ratings, not what you think they will be in November. I do have a lot of criticisms of Nate's model though, many of which I have already stated in previous threads. More interestingly, the model pollwonk cited in this thread isn't actually Nate's. It's just something NYT threw together. Nate's official fivethirtyeight model hasn't been released yet.

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Our point wasn't that we rejected Gallup polling. I apologize for the confusion. Our argument was that the unemployment is probably higher than most people think. Right now, Gallup probably is the closest at predicting the unemployment since they ask the more accurate question, "Are you unemployed?"

You cited Obama's net approval rating. The problem with that is you also factored in Obama's Honeymoon period from January 2009 to about June 2009. There is usually alot of hype about a new president. Since then, Obama has not broken any higher than 56%. We can therefore assume that Obama's highest non-honeymoon approval rating was the mid-fifties. I'm not saying that he can't ever reach the 60s. Clinton did it. Bush did it. Obama could do it, though I don't see it happening in the near future.

Also, we should focus more attention on the Presidential "THRESHOLD" For winning reelection. Gallup said that the Threshold is about 50%. Obama has never seen his approval rating reach 50% during the campaign season (2010 and 2011, August through November). In 2009, his approval sat averaged 52% during that period, yet was still 5% BELOW the 2009 Approval Average.

If you factor out Obama's average approval ratings for each year compared to the August-November period of that year you see a big problem for Obama...

2009 Average Approval Rating: 57%

August-November 2009 Average Approval Rating: 52%

Difference: -5%

2010 Average Approval Rating: 46%

August-November 2010 Average Approval Rating: 43%

Difference: -3%

2011 Average Approval Rating: 44%

August-November 2011 Average Approval Rating: 41%

Difference: -3%

Obama therefore averages about 3.6% LESS in approval rating during the election season than he does the other parts of the year.

If Obama were to lose 2% in 2012 Total Average as he did in 2010-2011, he would have a 42% total average and a Campaign Season average of just 37%.

Obama is still the underdog.

Obama's approval looks a lot better than 45%, if you look at all the polls and not just Gallup, which seems to be considerably underestimating his approval, relative to other pollsters.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Average at the moment? 48.8% approval. He is in net approval in nearly all surveys of his approval (aside from a few ties, and the odd -1).

And you and elliot argued that Gallup's surveying of unemployment was not reliable. So you can't really use it in your arguments, since you rejected me using it in previous arguments.

Also, look at this.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Romney has suffered a HUGE drop against Obama in head-to-head matchups. Obama opening up a significantly large lead, the size of which hasn't been seen since June. Yes, your argument that Obama is in trouble because of good but not great polling against Romney in head-to-head matchups is very certainly thoroughly squashed. Sorry about that.

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While Obama has seen a jump in the polls in a head to head matchup, it does not mean that he has a SIGNIFICANT lead. Obama has seen his jump not because of Obama's success but because of the Republican Primary.

Historically, primaries help the Incumbent president in a head to head matchup during the late winter and early spring. Bush Sr. had a 15% lead over Clinton in February since Clinton was trying to beat back the other challengers. Clinton was no dream candidate at the time. He had the issue of integrity dogging him at every campaign stop and he lacked foreign policy experience. Yet he still won.

Bush Jr. led Kerry in the polls by about 15% in February. Bush Jr. won the reelection barely. If the economy had been as bad as it was during Bush Sr's presidency, Kerry would have won in a landslide.

Obama's approval looks a lot better than 45%, if you look at all the polls and not just Gallup, which seems to be considerably underestimating his approval, relative to other pollsters.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Average at the moment? 48.8% approval. He is in net approval in nearly all surveys of his approval (aside from a few ties, and the odd -1).

And you and elliot argued that Gallup's surveying of unemployment was not reliable. So you can't really use it in your arguments, since you rejected me using it in previous arguments.

Also, look at this.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Romney has suffered a HUGE drop against Obama in head-to-head matchups. Obama opening up a significantly large lead, the size of which hasn't been seen since June. Yes, your argument that Obama is in trouble because of good but not great polling against Romney in head-to-head matchups is very certainly thoroughly squashed. Sorry about that.

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