Economy Issue

[POLLWONK 375]

Hey guys,

Since the economy is going to be the biggest issue of 2012, here is a forum to discuss the issue and how it will play out!

[ellchicago 353]

Hey guys,

Since the economy is going to be the biggest issue of 2012, here is a forum to discuss the issue and how it will play out!

"But on the economy - issue number one to most Americans - Romney has a clear advantage. 53% say the former Massachusetts governor can get the economy moving; only 40% say that about President Barack Obama," says Holland. "

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/16/cnn-poll-obama-tied-with-romney-paul-in-november-showdowns/

The polling in early October showed 10% lead for Romney amoung registered voters. "When registered independents are asked the same question Romey outpaces Obama by 13%, according to the same Quinnipiac poll. "http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/06/poll-perry-romney-better-than-obama-for-economy/ If Obama doesn't make inroads soon, he is going to lose, if not get crushed by Romney.

[VoteGOP 490]

So much of how the economy depends on how Europe does. If they collapse naturally its going to have a downward effect on our growth. Also, if Obama continues to bash the rich and call for higher taxes, the economy is going to stagnate, even if he doesn't actually go forward with the hikes because its going to scare people. If the debt continues to get worse, that's going to be an issue aswell, because its going to scare people. And if something happens in the Middle East to drive oil prices up, that's going to harm the economy.

So many things could go wrong, however recent data would suggest that barring any of those events, the economy actually might pick up, which of course would be good for Obama.

[VoteGOP 490]

So much of how the economy depends on how Europe does. If they collapse naturally its going to have a downward effect on our growth. Also, if Obama continues to bash the rich and call for higher taxes, the economy is going to stagnate, even if he doesn't actually go forward with the hikes because its going to scare people. If the debt continues to get worse, that's going to be an issue aswell, because its going to scare people. And if something happens in the Middle East to drive oil prices up, that's going to harm the economy.

So many things could go wrong, however recent data would suggest that barring any of those events, the economy actually might pick up, which of course would be good for Obama.

[POLLWONK 375]

The recent events really aren't improvements at all. Our unemployment is at 8.6%. In October of last year, it was at 8.2%. No real change. The Dow has been stuck at 12,000. And the White House predicted that 2012 would bring about unemployment about 9%.

The Economist and Goldman Sachs both predict that the US Economy will slow down. Economist is predicting a 1.3% GDP Growth.

So much of how the economy depends on how Europe does. If they collapse naturally its going to have a downward effect on our growth. Also, if Obama continues to bash the rich and call for higher taxes, the economy is going to stagnate, even if he doesn't actually go forward with the hikes because its going to scare people. If the debt continues to get worse, that's going to be an issue aswell, because its going to scare people. And if something happens in the Middle East to drive oil prices up, that's going to harm the economy.

So many things could go wrong, however recent data would suggest that barring any of those events, the economy actually might pick up, which of course would be good for Obama.

[POLLWONK 375]

The recent events really aren't improvements at all. Our unemployment is at 8.6%. In October of last year, it was at 8.2%. No real change. The Dow has been stuck at 12,000. And the White House predicted that 2012 would bring about unemployment about 9%.

The Economist and Goldman Sachs both predict that the US Economy will slow down. Economist is predicting a 1.3% GDP Growth.

So much of how the economy depends on how Europe does. If they collapse naturally its going to have a downward effect on our growth. Also, if Obama continues to bash the rich and call for higher taxes, the economy is going to stagnate, even if he doesn't actually go forward with the hikes because its going to scare people. If the debt continues to get worse, that's going to be an issue aswell, because its going to scare people. And if something happens in the Middle East to drive oil prices up, that's going to harm the economy.

So many things could go wrong, however recent data would suggest that barring any of those events, the economy actually might pick up, which of course would be good for Obama.

[ellchicago 353]

The recent events really aren't improvements at all. Our unemployment is at 8.6%. In October of last year, it was at 8.2%. No real change. The Dow has been stuck at 12,000. And the White House predicted that 2012 would bring about unemployment about 9%.

The Economist and Goldman Sachs both predict that the US Economy will slow down. Economist is predicting a 1.3% GDP Growth.

Global Economic Collapse?

[VoteGOP 490]

Global Economic Collapse?

Never, EVER cite the Young Turks as a source for anything ever.

[ellchicago 353]

Never, EVER cite the Young Turks as a source for anything ever.

Actually they are very good news source. Did you watch the video? My main point is that many of the world's top investors/leaders are worried of about a global meltdown.

[VoteGOP 490]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?hpt=hp_t3

[ellchicago 353]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?hpt=hp_t3

"Even though we've seen the outlook improve in the last few months, there's still a lot of risk and uncertainty out there in the business environment," said Michael Griffin, executive director and head of global research for CEB. "Generally speaking, we see executives developing a cautious posture."

Europe's debt crisis continues to rattle employers' nerves, the housing sector remains a drag, and uncertainty surrounding fiscal policies like the extension of the payroll tax hangs in the air, said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers.

Amid those uncertainties, the Federal Reserve last week said it forecasts the unemployment rate to remain between 8.2% and 8.5% in 2012. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke continues to characterize the recovery as "frustratingly slow."

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?hpt=hp_t3

[ellchicago 353]

"Even though we've seen the outlook improve in the last few months, there's still a lot of risk and uncertainty out there in the business environment," said Michael Griffin, executive director and head of global research for CEB. "Generally speaking, we see executives developing a cautious posture."

Europe's debt crisis continues to rattle employers' nerves, the housing sector remains a drag, and uncertainty surrounding fiscal policies like the extension of the payroll tax hangs in the air, said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers.

Amid those uncertainties, the Federal Reserve last week said it forecasts the unemployment rate to remain between 8.2% and 8.5% in 2012. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke continues to characterize the recovery as "frustratingly slow."

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?hpt=hp_t3

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/news/economy/obama_jobs/

"The January jobs report contains a slew of numbers that are likely to put a twinkle in the eye of Obama campaign staffers.

The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, the lowest it's been since February 2009. The private sector added jobs for the 23rd straight month. And about a million more people say they have jobs now than in October, which is the biggest 3-month change since before the recession.

The jobs report -- which surprised economists -- is great news for Obama. The unemployment rate plays an important role in campaign rhetoric, and the closer it drops to 7.8% -- the rate when Obama took office in January 2009 -- the better it is for the White House.

But even if the unemployment rate gets back to 7.8%, that might not be enough to save Obama's job. No president since Franklin D. Roosevelt has won re-election with an unemployment rate over 7.2%.

Of course that's just one data point. Still, there are plenty of reasons for the White House to keep the champagne on ice.

The Congressional Budget Office released forecasts earlier this week that project the unemployment rate will average 8.8% this year.

"Although conditions in the labor market have improved somewhat in recent months, considerable slack remains, largely as a consequence of the continued weakness in the demand for goods and services," the CBO said.

And the Federal Reserve last week said it forecasts the unemployment rate to remain between 8.2% and 8.5% in 2012. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke continues to characterize the recovery as "frustratingly slow."

Still, Alan Krueger, chairman of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, said in a statement that the jobs report "provides further evidence that the economy is continuing to heal."

Naturally, not everyone agrees.

Mitt Romney, one of the Republicans most likely to challenge Obama in the fall, was not so rosy, saying in a statement that "these numbers cannot hide the fact that President Obama's policies have prevented a true economic recovery. We can do better."

Experts say it would be a mistake to put too much emphasis on the unemployment rate. A more useful predictor of electoral success is how Americans feel about the economy.

And there, the news isn't so good for the White House.

Nevada's triple economic whammy

According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted late last month, only 45% of Americans approve of the way Obama is handling the economy, while 50% disapprove.

Another factor to consider: The road to the White House goes through a select number of swing states.

Voters in hard-hit states like Michigan, Nevada, Virginia, Florida, Ohio and Indiana will decide the election.

In general, the job market has a long way to go to fully recover from the financial crisis. The economy still needs to add about 5.6 million jobs to get back to 2008 employment levels"

[Alfonzo 117]

Unemployment has steadily gone down. It's at around 8.3-8.5% now. I doubt it'll get back above 9%. Hell, I hope it doesn't. I wonder how many Republicans out there would hope for 7.0% unemployment even if it guaranteed the reelection of Obama. It really has felt for a long time that many Republicans want unemployment to rise, and want the economy to suffer, so that Obama will be defeated this year.

So I'm being optimistic for America. I'm hoping unemployment goes down, and I don't think it will go back above 9%.

Obama's approval ratings have decisively recovered as well. In many surveys of approval, Obama has fallen into net approval somehow. Obama's approval ratings have been steadily rising since about October of last year. If this rate keeps up for a couple more months, Obama will be decisively set for reelection. The lowest approval ratings any president has had in which they won reelection was 48% approval. Many surveys have Obama around there.

In other news, Obama vs. Romney polls have had some very nice results for Obama. No doubt Romney is suffering more with independent and Democrat-leaning voters due to the increased scrutiny. Romney has so far managed to escape major scrutiny, while Obama has faced nothing but. I think when Obama starts campaigning, as it becomes more certain that Romney will be the frontrunner, Romney will face even more, tougher scrutiny, from a much stronger candidate than any of his Republican opponents.

But bringing this back to the economy, Obama seems to be framing his reelection campaign on fairness. In particular, making sure the rich give back their fair share to the country that has allowed them to prosper so. Romney is Mr. 14%. He's the anti-thesis of Obama's fundamental campaign message. There's a chance that 2012 could end up nothing more than a referendum on whether the rich should pay their fair share of tax or not. If the Obama campaign is smart, they'll definitely frame the debate that way. I think Romney's 14% will be very damaging to him. We'll have to wait and see. At any rate, I'm growing more and more convinced that Romney will actually end up quite weak against Obama, and am beginning to think that the right Gingrich or Perry campaign could have had a better chance to beat him than Romney will.

Should be a fun year to watch!

[ellchicago 353]

Unemployment has steadily gone down. It's at around 8.3-8.5% now. I doubt it'll get back above 9%. Hell, I hope it doesn't. I wonder how many Republicans out there would hope for 7.0% unemployment even if it guaranteed the reelection of Obama. It really has felt for a long time that many Republicans want unemployment to rise, and want the economy to suffer, so that Obama will be defeated this year.

So I'm being optimistic for America. I'm hoping unemployment goes down, and I don't think it will go back above 9%.

Obama's approval ratings have decisively recovered as well. In many surveys of approval, Obama has fallen into net approval somehow. Obama's approval ratings have been steadily rising since about October of last year. If this rate keeps up for a couple more months, Obama will be decisively set for reelection. The lowest approval ratings any president has had in which they won reelection was 48% approval. Many surveys have Obama around there.

In other news, Obama vs. Romney polls have had some very nice results for Obama. No doubt Romney is suffering more with independent and Democrat-leaning voters due to the increased scrutiny. Romney has so far managed to escape major scrutiny, while Obama has faced nothing but. I think when Obama starts campaigning, as it becomes more certain that Romney will be the frontrunner, Romney will face even more, tougher scrutiny, from a much stronger candidate than any of his Republican opponents.

But bringing this back to the economy, Obama seems to be framing his reelection campaign on fairness. In particular, making sure the rich give back their fair share to the country that has allowed them to prosper so. Romney is Mr. 14%. He's the anti-thesis of Obama's fundamental campaign message. There's a chance that 2012 could end up nothing more than a referendum on whether the rich should pay their fair share of tax or not. If the Obama campaign is smart, they'll definitely frame the debate that way. I think Romney's 14% will be very damaging to him. We'll have to wait and see. At any rate, I'm growing more and more convinced that Romney will actually end up quite weak against Obama, and am beginning to think that the right Gingrich or Perry campaign could have had a better chance to beat him than Romney will.

Should be a fun year to watch!

Unemployment will probaby either go back up or will be probably above 8% at election day. Obama is too timid to attack Romney, the Republicans have been way harder on Romney than Obama ever would be. Obama got some good numbers and boost in approval rating because of SOTU and lower umemployment, but the Euro Crisis could and probably WILL cause a GREAT GREAT DEPRESSION and China bubble could burst and add to suffering.This election will not be about taxing the rich (and Obama won't get rid of Tax Cuts for the rich anyway). It will be about "the economy,stupid!" Perry and Gingrich would have lost to Obama by 10-20% according to polling. To say that they would have better chance of winning is simply false. Romney is the strongest Republican in the race and will raise more money than Obama counting SuperPacs. Also Goldman Sacs donated more money to Romney and have a good track record of picking winners.

The days of "Extend and Pretend" are over, the Germans are going "Nein! Nein! Nein! We are done helping Europe out."

Don't get too hopeful...the world-wide economy could effective...end... The light at the end of the tunnel that you are seeing is actally a train that will run us over.

[Alfonzo 117]

Unemployment will probaby either go back up or will be probably above 8% at election day. Obama is too timid to attack Romney, the Republicans have been way harder on Romney than Obama ever would be. Obama got some good numbers and boost in approval rating because of SOTU and lower umemployment, but the Euro Crisis could and probably WILL cause a GREAT GREAT DEPRESSION and China bubble could burst and add to suffering.This election will not be about taxing the rich (and Obama won't get rid of Tax Cuts for the rich anyway). It will be about "the economy,stupid!" Perry and Gingrich would have lost to Obama by 10-20% according to polling. To say that they would have better chance of winning is simply false. Romney is the strongest Republican in the race and will raise more money than Obama counting SuperPacs. Also Goldman Sacs donated more money to Romney and have a good track record of picking winners.

The days of "Extend and Pretend" are over, the Germans are going "Nein! Nein! Nein! We are done helping Europe out."

Don't get too hopeful...the world-wide economy could effective...end... The light at the end of the tunnel that you are seeing is actally a train that will run us over.

It really does sound like you're hoping for a great depression. Probably one of the biggest influences on the economy, if not the single biggest, is consumer confidence.

EDIT: I might add that 8.3% is, so I've heard, the lowest unemployment has been during Obama's presidency.

Tell me (and I ask this to others such as pollwonk), would you be happy if unemployment dropped to 7.0% if it meant Obama would absolutely be reelected? What, to you, is more important - economic recovery, or who resides in the white house next year?

[ellchicago 353]

It really does sound like you're hoping for a great depression. Probably one of the biggest influences on the economy, if not the single biggest, is consumer confidence.

EDIT: I might add that 8.3% is, so I've heard, the lowest unemployment has been during Obama's presidency.

Tell me (and I ask this to others such as pollwonk), would you be happy if unemployment dropped to 7.0% if it meant Obama would absolutely be reelected? What, to you, is more important - economic recovery, or who resides in the white house next year?

I am not hoping the great great depression, but it will happen... You obviously didn't read my post, I talked about the end and was kind of depressed about the world is going to end. I welcome good news, but President Obama said unemployment wouldn't rise above 8% and he said if he could not turn this economy around in three years, he would be "looking at one-term proposition" and it would take "more than one President".

Obama won't be able to fix fallout from Europe and he had three years to make a difference. Obama is a conversative, he wants to do the grand bargin. As a Progressive there is no point to support Obama over Romney because Obama would destroy the Democratic Party and hurt Progressives. Progressives should hope that Russ Feingold runs in 2016 and becomes that next FDR.

[ellchicago 353]

Also unemployment may rise because people who gave up looking for work will try to get back in to the job market.

[VoteGOP 490]

You guys aren't taking into account the role of expectations in an economy. If the economic climate is more optimistic, which, despite Europe and despite the still high unemployment it is (at least more so than in the past few years), the accelerator will propel the economy forward. If Europe goes down that trend is reversed but its not going to cause another great depression. Greece is going to default, and will probably leave the Eurozone. The major economies in Europe (Germany, France etc) are still very sound and aren't going to let the Greeks drag them down. If the entire Eurozone goes down, then we're gonna have some problems, but thats not going to happen. At least not this year. A worldwide depression happening before November is unthinkable. If the current trends continue things are going to start to look good for Obama, and he's going to hammer Romney with his populist agenda. However, if he keeps screaming tax the rich, he's going to start to scare people again, he doesn't even need to raise their taxes, the threat is enough to drag the economy down. Despite that, the tax the rich mentality is working with more and more in the middle class, and considering Obama is going to have a ton of cash, and Romney isn't exactly the strongest candidate, the GOP may be in some trouble.

[ellchicago 353]

You guys aren't taking into account the role of expectations in an economy. If the economic climate is more optimistic, which, despite Europe and despite the still high unemployment it is (at least more so than in the past few years), the accelerator will propel the economy forward. If Europe goes down that trend is reversed but its not going to cause another great depression. Greece is going to default, and will probably leave the Eurozone. The major economies in Europe (Germany, France etc) are still very sound and aren't going to let the Greeks drag them down. If the entire Eurozone goes down, then we're gonna have some problems, but thats not going to happen. At least not this year. A worldwide depression happening before November is unthinkable. If the current trends continue things are going to start to look good for Obama, and he's going to hammer Romney with his populist agenda. However, if he keeps screaming tax the rich, he's going to start to scare people again, he doesn't even need to raise their taxes, the threat is enough to drag the economy down. Despite that, the tax the rich mentality is working with more and more in the middle class, and considering Obama is going to have a ton of cash, and Romney isn't exactly the strongest candidate, the GOP may be in some trouble.

Expectations are also tied to Europe and Europe is in massive trouble! Greece will have a domino effect across Europe. Romney and allied SuperPacs (American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS will raise each raise 100 million dollars and the Koch brothers will raise ANOTHER 100 million dollars) will raise more than Obama and his allied SuperPacs. If nothing else, the money will allow Romney to win. 93% of elections are won because of money.

[VoteGOP 490]

I think when the Obama campaign starts to really get off its feet it will start to raise money comparable to Romney. This is the dude who raised a billion dollars in 08, and despite some of that magic being gone, he still has a bunch of passionate supporters. I agree the expectations over Europe will impact the American economy, but I don't think Greece will spell the end to Europe. Eventually, Greece is going to abandon the Euro, its unavoidable. The austerity required to prevent a default is something the Greek people won't accept and the German taxpayers aren't going to tolerate much more of their money going to Greece. After Greece its going to be Spain, and Portugal, and possible Italy, and it will have a shaky effect on the economies of the world, but the major economies aren't going to go down. If worse comes to worse the Eurozone will collapse and all those nations will inflate their way out of their debt.

Also Freakonomics blew that whole notion of money winning 9 out of 10 elections out of the water.

[ellchicago 353]

I think when the Obama campaign starts to really get off its feet it will start to raise money comparable to Romney. This is the dude who raised a billion dollars in 08, and despite some of that magic being gone, he still has a bunch of passionate supporters. I agree the expectations over Europe will impact the American economy, but I don't think Greece will spell the end to Europe. Eventually, Greece is going to abandon the Euro, its unavoidable. The austerity required to prevent a default is something the Greek people won't accept and the German taxpayers aren't going to tolerate much more of their money going to Greece. After Greece its going to be Spain, and Portugal, and possible Italy, and it will have a shaky effect on the economies of the world, but the major economies aren't going to go down. If worse comes to worse the Eurozone will collapse and all those nations will inflate their way out of their debt.

Also Freakonomics blew that whole notion of money winning 9 out of 10 elections out of the water.

Obama didn't raise Billion dollars in 2008 and Obama is not to match Romney in money. If one major economy goes down, the world goes down.

[VoteGOP 490]

Obama didn't raise Billion dollars in 2008 and Obama is not to match Romney in money. If one major economy goes down, the world goes down.

Even if that was true, Greece is far from a major economy. If an economy the size of the United States collapsed, yes, the world might go down. That isn't happening and Europe on any large scale. If they cut Greece loose, the problem disappears (well not for the Greeks). Obama raised $778 million in 2008. Double what McCain raised. Even with the increased enthusiasm among Republicans, they're not going to double what they raised in 08 and Obama is going to raise comparable numbers. Super PACs may close the gap, but Romney isn't going to have a huge money advantage, though like I said a huge money advantage doesn't always guarantee a win.

[ellchicago 353]

Even if that was true, Greece is far from a major economy. If an economy the size of the United States collapsed, yes, the world might go down. That isn't happening and Europe on any large scale. If they cut Greece loose, the problem disappears (well not for the Greeks). Obama raised $778 million in 2008. Double what McCain raised. Even with the increased enthusiasm among Republicans, they're not going to double what they raised in 08 and Obama is going to raise comparable numbers. Super PACs may close the gap, but Romney isn't going to have a huge money advantage, though like I said a huge money advantage doesn't always guarantee a win.

European Union is right now the biggest Economy in the world. If they cut Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal will be next to go. Since there is no solution save Greece, the world will be in massive trouble. Obama raised 532 million in 2008.

[VoteGOP 490]

European Union is right now the biggest Economy in the world. If they cut Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal will be next to go. Since there is no solution save Greece, the world will be in massive trouble. Obama raised 532 million in 2008.

You're confusing the EU and the Eurozone. If Greece were to abandon the Euro, they wouldn't leave the EU, they'd just have control over their own currency, which would allow them to devalue their currency, essentially printing money (and causing harmful levels of inflation), but avoiding a default. The European Union would remain unchanged. The common market would still exist, all the free trade agreements and market mobility would still exist, but the Greeks and the Spanish and the Portuguese would presumably abandon the Euro, and the big European economies wouldn't have their fates tied to the failing ones.

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_08+00+PR

[ellchicago 353]

You're confusing the EU and the Eurozone. If Greece were to abandon the Euro, they wouldn't leave the EU, they'd just have control over their own currency, which would allow them to devalue their currency, essentially printing money (and causing harmful levels of inflation), but avoiding a default. The European Union would remain unchanged. The common market would still exist, all the free trade agreements and market mobility would still exist, but the Greeks and the Spanish and the Portuguese would presumably abandon the Euro, and the big European economies wouldn't have their fates tied to the failing ones.

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_08+00+PR

Even if that did happen, the world economy would suffer and growth would stall.