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  1. 1. Who will be the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee?

    • Governor Chris Christie
      5
    • Senator Marco Rubio
      2
    • Senator Kelly Ayotte
      1
    • Governor Susana Martinez
      1
    • Governor Brian Sandoval
      0
    • Governor Bob McDonnell
      3
    • Governor Nikki Haley
      0
    • Governor Jon Huntsman Jr.
      1
    • Governor Mike Huckabee
      1
    • Senator Rick Santorum
      0
    • Speaker Newt Gingrich
      2
    • Governor Rick Perry
      1
    • Representative Ron Paul
      0
    • Governor Mitch Daniels
      1
    • Governor Haley Barbour
      0
    • Senator Jim DeMitt
      0
    • Governor Bobby Jindal
      1
    • Senator Rob Portman
      2
    • Representative Paul Ryan
      3
    • Representative Allen West
      0
  2. 2. What Mystery Events in 2012 will have a impact on the 2012 election?

    • The Euro Zone will collapse
      12
    • The China bubble will burst
      7
    • Economy Booms (5% GDP Growth)
      8
    • Economy Crashes (-1% GDP Growth)
      4
    • Economy Struggles (1% GDP Growth)
      8
    • Balanced Budget compromise
      6
    • Government Shutdown
      5
    • Leader Nancy Pelosi steps down
      0
    • Tea Party takes down Speaker John Boehner
      3
    • Governor Gary Johnson steals votes from Governor Mitt Romney, throws election to Obama
      5
    • A Third Party Candidate takes a good portion of the Popular Vote
      5
    • A Third Party Candidate wins Electoral Votes
      2
    • A Third Party Candidate wins a majority of Electoral Votes and plurality of the Popular Vote
      1
    • A Third Party Candidate wins a majority of Electoral Votes and majority of the Popular Vote
      0
    • Election thrown to House of Representives
      0
    • Major Progressive Candidate runs as a third party
      1
    • Major Tea Party Candidate runs as a third party
      1
    • Secretary of State Hillary Clinton runs as a Third Party Candidate
      1
    • Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or Major Progressive challenges Obama in Primary
      0
    • The 99% drafts a candidate for a Third Party Run
      0
  3. 3. Who will win the 2012 election? Governor Mitt Romney, President Obama or someone else?

    • Governor Mitt Romney
      10
    • President Barack Obama
      12
    • Someone else
      2


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If Romney carries every state in the primaries and ends up with more than 60% of the national primary vote, he could (and probably should) choose any Republican he wants to be his running mate. Mitch Daniels is probably the strongest option overall. Conservative without being extreme enough to scare mdoerates away. Plus, he's the Governor of a 2008 Obama state, and if Romney loses, he could well be the GOP frontrunner in 2016.

At this rate, Romney will be lucky to carry 1 of the 3 first-to-vote states.

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I'm sorry, but Romney has already won 1 of the first 3 states. :P

If Gingrich had won Iowa, then Romney would be in bad trouble. But Gingrich didn't win in Iowa, Santorum won (barely).

The first three states did something that they have never done before. A different candidate for a different state. There is no + or - for anyone in the race. After SC, Romney has a list of primaries coming up that he will almost certainly win in... (Florida, Nevada, etc)...

Gingrich's achilles heel will be Santorum and Paul. Santorum is going to try to be the next Mike Huckabee and carry his bid into March or April. Paul, as we know, is Ron Paul and considering he kept his campaign going until June despite polling only 6%, expect him to remain in the race. Romney will have the advantage.

At this rate, Romney will be lucky to carry 1 of the 3 first-to-vote states.

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I'm sorry, but Romney has already won 1 of the first 3 states. :P

If Gingrich had won Iowa, then Romney would be in bad trouble. But Gingrich didn't win in Iowa, Santorum won (barely).

The first three states did something that they have never done before. A different candidate for a different state. There is no + or - for anyone in the race. After SC, Romney has a list of primaries coming up that he will almost certainly win in... (Florida, Nevada, etc)...

Gingrich's achilles heel will be Santorum and Paul. Santorum is going to try to be the next Mike Huckabee and carry his bid into March or April. Paul, as we know, is Ron Paul and considering he kept his campaign going until June despite polling only 6%, expect him to remain in the race. Romney will have the advantage.

Again, you seem to forget that Gingrich had numbers very similar to Romney in Florida not too long ago. It is very much well within reasonable probabilities that Gingrich can get back a lot of the vote that he once had - as he has done in South Carolina, in less than a week.

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Again, you seem to forget that Gingrich had numbers very similar to Romney in Florida not too long ago. It is very much well within reasonable probabilities that Gingrich can get back a lot of the vote that he once had - as he has done in South Carolina, in less than a week.

Florida is entirely different state than South Carolina. South Carolina is one of if not the most socially state in America and Gingrich lives in state that is next door. Right now Romney is decent to good shape in Florida.

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Romney is still in a safe position. Newt winning will prolong it a while, but the establishment is too terrified of Newt to let him be the nominee. Money will start to pour in against him like it did in Iowa. And of course Newt has been prone to collapsing in the past on his own. Romney will simply adjust his debate strategy, be a little more aggressive in his ads, and order will be restored.

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Look, we know that Gingrich is polling in a remotely similar position in Florida in comparison to South Carolina about 3 weeks ago. You gave us no reasons however to believe that Gingrich can overcome Romney in the Sunshine State. All you did was cite polling which says that Gingrich is losing to Romney by about 15%, and then nothing else. Basically, it seems more like you are arguing that Romney will win... but since I know you are not, here are my responses...

1.) Gingrich does not have as strong a base in Florida as he does in South Carolina. He is popular in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina. Those states are naturally fond of Newt. Florida isn't naturally inclined to like Newt.

2.) Gingrich invested nearly all of his campaign $ into South Carolina. He campaigned his butt off in that state, though his acceptance was largely due to his popularity among southerners.

3.) Romney has invested mounds of cash into Florida and has built not only a solid primary fortress but also a good general election base as well.

4.) Romney has the ground game. Gingrich doesn't.

5.) Romney is releasing his tax returns so enough with the "taxgate" crap.

Romney is right now the favorite in Florida. He has a 75-80% chance of winning there.

Again, you seem to forget that Gingrich had numbers very similar to Romney in Florida not too long ago. It is very much well within reasonable probabilities that Gingrich can get back a lot of the vote that he once had - as he has done in South Carolina, in less than a week.

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Florida is also a closed primary, and 200,000 early ballots have already been cast prior to Newtmentum.

Romney comes out Populist blaming banking industry, Wall St., Congress, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae. Romney will come back maybe in Florida, definitely early enough to win nomination

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Look, we know that Gingrich is polling in a remotely similar position in Florida in comparison to South Carolina about 3 weeks ago. You gave us no reasons however to believe that Gingrich can overcome Romney in the Sunshine State. All you did was cite polling which says that Gingrich is losing to Romney by about 15%, and then nothing else. Basically, it seems more like you are arguing that Romney will win... but since I know you are not, here are my responses..

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-1597.html

He already has. The two latest polls have Gingrich with decent leads, representing a roughly 25% swing against Romney.

You want reason to believe Gingrich can win Florida? You have it right there.

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Romney comes out Populist blaming banking industry, Wall St., Congress, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae. Romney will come back maybe in Florida, definitely early enough to win nomination

Romney is now talking about all the baggage Gingrich has, Newt is not going to survive that.

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Romney comes out Populist blaming banking industry, Wall St., Congress, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae. Romney will come back maybe in Florida, definitely early enough to win nomination

Romney is now talking about all the baggage Gingrich has, Newt is not going to survive that.

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-1597.html

He already has. The two latest polls have Gingrich with decent leads, representing a roughly 25% swing against Romney.

You want reason to believe Gingrich can win Florida? You have it right there.

Nate Silver says About 225K have voted in Florida so far, which would represent about 12% of 2008 turnout. Rasmussen has Gingrich up 9 in Florida. The good news for Mitt: he leads by 11 among those who already voted.

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Right now, the election is pretty close... Romney and Obama are pretty much dead even.

I think that the following will play a major role over the next few months...

1.) The Economy. GDP Growth. Unemployment.

2.) Gas Prices.

3.) Romney VP

4.) Healthcare

I think Obama needs to have about a 2.8% GDP Growth for this year in order to have a "Good" shot at reelection. Anything lower than 2.5% would put him in a vulnerable position.

As for unemployment, I think the real debate should be "Are we actually seeing less people umemployed? Or are people just giving up on searching for a job?"

I think that should be the real deciding factor on the unemployment issue.

ROmney's VP is obvious. If he picks a respectable Vice President, he will do well. If he picks a Palinesque candidate, Obama will win.

Healthcare could be Obama's biggest vulnerability. If the Healthcare Law or Obamacare gets struck down by the Supreme Court, then Obama will be hit HARD politically.

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i think, and hope, that romney's VP will be chris christie, because he is'nt too conservative, but he is not liberal.

after the elections in many europian states, i thing the euro zone will collapsed.

unfortunately, i think obama will gain another term-

even if i support mitt romney.

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