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South Carolina Primary

South Carolina Primary  

13 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win the 2012 South Carolina GOP Primary?

    • Mitt Romney
      3
    • Rick Santorum
      2
    • Ron Paul
      2
    • Newt Gingrich
      5
    • Rick Perry
      0
    • Jon Huntsman
      1
  2. 2. Assuming that he wins in NH, will a Romney victory in SC virtually assure the former Gov of the Republican Nomination?

    • Yes. The race will be over.
      4
    • Probably, it would create almost irreversable momentum.
      4
    • Maybe.
      2
    • Probably not.
      1
    • No way!
      2


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Hey!

Here is the forum to decide who will win the GOP 2012 South Carolina Primaries! Cast your vote here and comment!

POLLWONK

Yes, it would be over. Romney would sweep the table and probably win every state until Super Tuesday.

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Looks like Newt is gaining momentum. The combination of populist and socially conservative attacks on Romney is taking its toll. The debate will be important, but ultimately I think Mitt eeks out a victory. Perry's votes aren't enough to determine anything but I assume they'll be divided between Newt and Paul and possibly Santorum.

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Looks like Newt is gaining momentum. The combination of populist and socially conservative attacks on Romney is taking its toll. The debate will be important, but ultimately I think Mitt eeks out a victory. Perry's votes aren't enough to determine anything but I assume they'll be divided between Newt and Paul and possibly Santorum.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/19/perrys-voters-may-not-flock-to-gingrich/ "Mr. Gingrich was listed by 22 percent of Mr. Perry’s supporters as their second choice, but Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney were each listed as the second choice by 20 percent of Mr. Perry’s voters. Ron Paul had the support of 12 percent, while 26 percent picked another candidate or were undecided."

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After watching the debate, I think Newt is going to win. Romney wasn't particularly horrible, but Newt did very well as he always does.

Newt is pompous and arrogant as always. Romney did fine, it was not noteworthy however.

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Newt is pompous and arrogant as always. Romney did fine, it was not noteworthy however.

That arrogance helps him. He has an aura of confidence around him that helps convince people he's a leader. He's a brilliant debater give the man credit. And of course Romney did fine, especially in defending his record he shut them down, but Newt was better. And with the momentum he already had coming in I don't think Romney can hold on.

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That arrogance helps him. He has an aura of confidence around him that helps convince people he's a leader. He's a brilliant debater give the man credit. And of course Romney did fine, especially in defending his record he shut them down, but Newt was better. And with the momentum he already had coming in I don't think Romney can hold on.

There is the Gingrich's ex-wife's bomb-shell waiting. Arrogant leaders are generally impulsive and incredibly stupid and crazy things. I don't know who will win South Carolina, but Romney will survive and continue on while Gingrich will probably start imploding again.

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Polls continue to have Gingrich in the lead in the final days of the SC campaign. With Iowa being certified for Santorum now, it is looking increasingly likely that Romney will only pull 1 of the first 3 states. The Gingrich surge has been unheard of, and could not have been imagined a week ago. Romney's inevitable winning the nomination image has certainly been tarnished in the last few days.

Gingrich wins South Carolina is my bet. A disappointing performance would probably cause Santorum to drop out, though he may try to ride the momentum of winning Iowa. A disappointing performance in Florida too would probably knock him out. It'll boil down to Romney, Paul and Gingrich, and Gingrich stands a good chance at taking the lead for a while.

All I can say with certainty is that NOBODY can say anything about these primaries with any certainty.

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Polls continue to have Gingrich in the lead in the final days of the SC campaign. With Iowa being certified for Santorum now, it is looking increasingly likely that Romney will only pull 1 of the first 3 states. The Gingrich surge has been unheard of, and could not have been imagined a week ago. Romney's inevitable winning the nomination image has certainly been tarnished in the last few days.

Gingrich wins South Carolina is my bet. A disappointing performance would probably cause Santorum to drop out, though he may try to ride the momentum of winning Iowa. A disappointing performance in Florida too would probably knock him out. It'll boil down to Romney, Paul and Gingrich, and Gingrich stands a good chance at taking the lead for a while.

All I can say with certainty is that NOBODY can say anything about these primaries with any certainty.

Fact: Santorum or Paul are finished.

Santorum probably will endorse Gingrich after South Carolina or Florida.

Fact: Romney has alot of favorable states after South Carolina. Florida, Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota that could reserves Gingrich's momentum

Fact: Romney still has a huge lead in endorsements

Fact: Romney still has tons of money

Fact: Gingrich's past will come back to haunt him.

It is easy to predict who will win the day before the election. Romney is playing a long-term game and still is the favorite to win the nomination. Romney could easily gain the momentum back after South Carolina by winning Florida.

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Fact: Santorum or Paul are finished.

Santorum probably will endorse Gingrich after South Carolina or Florida.

Fact: Romney has alot of favorable states after South Carolina. Florida, Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota that could reserves Gingrich's momentum

Fact: Romney still has a huge lead in endorsements

Fact: Romney still has tons of money

Fact: Gingrich's past will come back to haunt him.

It is easy to predict who will win the day before the election. Romney is playing a long-term game and still is the favorite to win the nomination. Romney could easily gain the momentum back after South Carolina by winning Florida.

Agreed. Newt may win SC, and possibly drag the race on, but Romney still has this in the bag. In fact there are some who believe that a long primary season would be beneficial for Romney, because his dirty laundry gets aired early, and its old news by election time.

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With a possible Gingrich upset tomorrow, the Romney campaign may very well get the long battle for the nomination that they had previously prepared for.

Florida, a state Romney only lost by 5 points in 2008, seems solid for him, but a Gingrich win in South Carolina could make it a close call. However, it is winner-take-all: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-1597.html

As for February, the contests are Romney-friendly (Michigan, Nevada, Maine, etc.) and should allow him good wins to prepare for Super Tuesday in March. Does that mean the other candidates will fade away in February? No. Super Pac's will keep them very much alive.

2012GOPmap.png

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Fact: Santorum or Paul are finished.

Santorum probably will endorse Gingrich after South Carolina or Florida.

Fact: Romney has alot of favorable states after South Carolina. Florida, Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota that could reserves Gingrich's momentum

Fact: Romney still has a huge lead in endorsements

Fact: Romney still has tons of money

Fact: Gingrich's past will come back to haunt him.

It is easy to predict who will win the day before the election. Romney is playing a long-term game and still is the favorite to win the nomination. Romney could easily gain the momentum back after South Carolina by winning Florida.

South Carolina was pretty solid for Romney a week ago. 20 point shift towards Gingrich in a few days. And you seem to forget that not too long ago, Florida had Gingrich in 20+ leads. Florida is far from safe for Romney. Likely is that whoever wins South Carolina would ride the momentum into Florida. No matter what happens, Romney has seemed to underperform relative to polling a week before the vote.

On a side, Romney did worse in Iowa than he did in 2008. I wonder if the same will happen in Florida.

That last 'fact' of yours seems to be under the assumption that Romney doesn't have a past. He does. And we are starting to see more and more of Romney's true character come out too.

No, at the moment, these primaries are wide open. Romney's win is far far from certain.

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South Carolina was pretty solid for Romney a week ago. 20 point shift towards Gingrich in a few days. And you seem to forget that not too long ago, Florida had Gingrich in 20+ leads. Florida is far from safe for Romney. Likely is that whoever wins South Carolina would ride the momentum into Florida. No matter what happens, Romney has seemed to underperform relative to polling a week before the vote.

On a side, Romney did worse in Iowa than he did in 2008. I wonder if the same will happen in Florida.

That last 'fact' of yours seems to be under the assumption that Romney doesn't have a past. He does. And we are starting to see more and more of Romney's true character come out too.

No, at the moment, these primaries are wide open. Romney's win is far far from certain.

If Romney had major problems in his past, we would have seen it already. On a side, Romney did better than McCain did in New Hamshire 2008. Romney will probably win most if not all February contests giving him momemtum to win on Super Tuesday. Romney is the strong leader and slighly more conservative than weak failed leadership of Obama. Romney is the only person who can stop Gingrich. Romney also has the backing of the establishment and that is the only way for a Republican to win the nomination. Gingrich's insane breakdown makes him extremely dangerous to the future America.

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Gingrich will win South Carolina, but won't win in the next two states named "Florida" and "Nevada". Those two will probably go for Mitt. THe nomination is solidly with Mitt while South Carolina is leaning Newt.

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First off, Romney was never expected to win in Iowa. People expected Huckabee to run and win Iowa. Huckabee didn't run. Bachmann was suppposed to win Iowa. She didn't. Perry ran into Iowa and everyone thought he'd win... he forgot he had a stick of dynamite in his backpocket (aka the HPV Vaccine Executive order which killed his popularity)... then Cain's pizza caravan imploded after assault charges... then Newt took the lead and his campaign bombed... then Paul took the lead... Romney finished only 30 votes behind Santorum. It showed that Romney didn't have the following problems...

1.) Bachmannisms

2.) Perry debate harri-carris

3.) Cain's strong passion for women

4.) Gingrich's Fanny and Freddie Mac past (And no, Bain Capitol isn't a "corporate raider". It acts as a mechanic to failing businesses)

Also, Romney finished with 31% in Florida in 2008. CNN's latest poll shows Romney with 43%, Public Policy Polling gives him 41%, American Research Group gives him 42%, the Sunshine State News gives him 46%...

...for your prediction that Romney will do worse in Florida this year than in 2008 to materialize, Romney would need to lose about 15-20% in 10 days. Odds are: HIGHLY UNLIKEY.

As for Romney's past, you have always argued that we should judge it as "in comparison to the other guys..." system...

1.) Romney's taxes are managed by a blind trust (Aka, someone else manages his taxes. He doesn't have access to them until April. He would have to fire the agency in order to gain access to his taxes before then.)

2.) If you are going to rate Romney as having a bad past, please explain why Obama...

a.) Met with Bill Ayers the terrorist...

b.) Smoked cocaine in College...

c.) Argued for "redistribution of wealth"...

d.) Accused Americans of being "lazy"...

e.) Never ran a business in his whole life...

f.) Served less time as a US Senator then Romney spent as Governor

3.) We have not seen anything suspicous thus far. Neither have you shown anything bad with Romney's plan. You can't say it was bad he passed Romneycare, Because Obama did the exact same thing. Romney said he wouldn't do it on a national level. Obama wants it on both levels...

As for your belief that the primaries are divided, you need to realize that Romney is leading nationally and the next few states after South Carolina are all showing strong Romney leads.

South Carolina was pretty solid for Romney a week ago. 20 point shift towards Gingrich in a few days. And you seem to forget that not too long ago, Florida had Gingrich in 20+ leads. Florida is far from safe for Romney. Likely is that whoever wins South Carolina would ride the momentum into Florida. No matter what happens, Romney has seemed to underperform relative to polling a week before the vote.

On a side, Romney did worse in Iowa than he did in 2008. I wonder if the same will happen in Florida.

That last 'fact' of yours seems to be under the assumption that Romney doesn't have a past. He does. And we are starting to see more and more of Romney's true character come out too.

No, at the moment, these primaries are wide open. Romney's win is far far from certain.

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Gingrich will win South Carolina, but won't win in the next two states named "Florida" and "Nevada". Those two will probably go for Mitt. THe nomination is solidly with Mitt while South Carolina is leaning Newt.

Actually I don't know who will win.

Pro Gingrich:

1) Gingrich's New Hampshire

2) momentum

3)Rick Perry

Anti Gingrich:

1) Ex-wife interview

2) possible split with Rick Santorum

3)Weak ground ops

Pro Romney:

1) Strong ground ops

2) Nikki Haley

3)keep South Carolina backing the nominee

Anti Romney:

1) weak in the South

2) possible not conservative enough

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I'd put it as a Gingrich edge... Rasmussen shows a close race. Other polls how a Gingrich edge. I'm going to say a Gingrich edge whichs means...

60% chance of Gingrich winning

40% chance of Romney winning

There also comes into question which candidate does the average voter feel safest with... That's why Paul did so bad... We need to be honest, it takes guts to wear a RonPaul bumper sticker and to vote for him.

Actually I don't know who will win.

Pro Gingrich:

1) Gingrich's New Hampshire

2) momentum

3)Rick Perry

Anti Gingrich:

1) Ex-wife interview

2) possible split with Rick Santorum

3)Weak ground ops

Pro Romney:

1) Strong ground ops

2) Nikki Haley

3)keep South Carolina backing the nominee

Anti Romney:

1) weak in the South

2) possible not conservative enough

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