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Predicting Iowa and New Hampshire  

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  1. 1. Which candidate in the GOP Field will win in Iowa?

    • Mitt Romney
      10
    • Ron Paul
      2
    • Rick Santorum
      6
    • Newt Gingrich
      1
    • Michele Bachmann
      1
    • Rick Perry
      0
    • Jon Huntsman Jr.
      0
  2. 2. Which candidate in the GOP Field will win in New Hampshire?

    • Mitt Romney
      16
    • Ron Paul
      0
    • Rick Santorum
      0
    • Newt Gingrich
      0
    • Michele Bachmann
      1
    • Rick Perry
      0
    • Jon Huntsman Jr.
      3
  3. 3. If a candidate were to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, would that guarantee the candidate the nomination?

    • Yes!
      5
    • Probably. It would pretty much make the winning candidate unstoppable.
      6
    • Maybe. We'll just have to wait and see.
      2
    • Probably not. It really depends WHO wins the first two states.
      3
    • No!
      4


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From Nate's blog, a few interesting facts about this result:

  • Romney's vote share was lower than what he achieved in Iowa in 2008
  • Romney failed to beat Mr. Santorum among registered Republicans
  • This was the lowest-ever winning percentage in the Iowa caucus

It's a win, but it can barely be called one.

It was a strategic win, regardless of the actual numbers. The 8-vote divide was enough for Romney to technically claim victory and headlines. His two most dangerous national opponents, Gingrich and Perry, foundered in distant 4th and 5th place. Rick Santorum, the most extreme and least organized opponent, placed second. The Libertarian revolt led by Ron Paul was not as strong as expected. Romney is well placed.

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In case you missed it, Nate Silver also pointed out the following...

1.) Romney eliminated Perry from the race. Perry has little hope left.

2.) Romney avoided being vetoed by Iowans

Also, Nate said that Romney's chances of becoming President are a little bit more likely than they were 24 hours ago. They are a lot better than they were 24 hours ago.

You can try to shrink down the magnitude of this victory. And certainly, you have a point by saying he won by a narrow margin. BUT regardless of all that, Romney just got a net benefit. He will carry the mometum to New Hampshire and is almost certain to win the Granite State.

And even if it did matter that Romney won by such a narrow count, Romney has a lead in New Hampshire. South Carolina hasn't been polled for a while, the last poll came out when Gingrich was surging. Romney is either leading or tied there. Romney has momentum, no matter how small his margin of victory was in Iowa.

From Nate's blog, a few interesting facts about this result:

  • Romney's vote share was lower than what he achieved in Iowa in 2008
  • Romney failed to beat Mr. Santorum among registered Republicans
  • This was the lowest-ever winning percentage in the Iowa caucus

It's a win, but it can barely be called one.

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Santorum will now be facing alot of attack ads by other candidates. No doubt, they will smash him on his support for earmarks.

Romney is definitly going to win in the Granite State. No question there.

I think South Carolina will go for Romney because...

1.) Winning both Iowa and New Hampshire will give him alot of momentum.

2.) Romney is probably in the lead or tied with Gingrich now. The last time South Carolina was polled, Gingrich was at the climax of his support. Now, he is in the ditch. All it will take is a Romney victory in New Hampshire to solidify victory in South Carolina. SC will be Newt Gingrich's last stand.

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Only one poll out this week, but the expectations game for New Hampshire is the battle for third (and second) place as well as Romney's margin of victory. Paul, Gingrich, Huntsman, and Santorum are fighting for it. Even a third place for Huntsman should kill his campaign (unless really close). A fourth for Gingrich would be another embarrassment, but he will probably fight on till South Carolina in order to continue selling books. Less than second place for Ron Paul would once again chastise his libertarian movement. And a double-digit or better showing for Santorum can continue his momentum. Perry is not competing.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

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In case you missed it, Nate Silver also pointed out the following...

1.) Romney eliminated Perry from the race. Perry has little hope left.

2.) Romney avoided being vetoed by Iowans

Also, Nate said that Romney's chances of becoming President are a little bit more likely than they were 24 hours ago. They are a lot better than they were 24 hours ago.

You can try to shrink down the magnitude of this victory. And certainly, you have a point by saying he won by a narrow margin. BUT regardless of all that, Romney just got a net benefit. He will carry the mometum to New Hampshire and is almost certain to win the Granite State.

And even if it did matter that Romney won by such a narrow count, Romney has a lead in New Hampshire. South Carolina hasn't been polled for a while, the last poll came out when Gingrich was surging. Romney is either leading or tied there. Romney has momentum, no matter how small his margin of victory was in Iowa.

I don't really dispute much of that. Nate does good work, and I'm usually hard-pressed to disagree with his analysis (though I do try).

I was just presenting some interesting facts about this particular caucus. Registered Republicans preferred Santorum. That's interesting. Romney did worse in Iowa this year than he did in 2008. He may have won, but in historical perspective, he's lost ground. That's very interesting. This is the lowest percentage of any candidate who has won Iowa. In the past, people have lost with a greater share of the vote. That's interesting.

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I don't really dispute much of that. Nate does good work, and I'm usually hard-pressed to disagree with his analysis (though I do try).

I was just presenting some interesting facts about this particular caucus. Registered Republicans preferred Santorum. That's interesting. Romney did worse in Iowa this year than he did in 2008. He may have won, but in historical perspective, he's lost ground. That's very interesting. This is the lowest percentage of any candidate who has won Iowa. In the past, people have lost with a greater share of the vote. That's interesting.

Which is why Romney initially ignored the state until the last few weeks when his campaign saw that the not-Romney field was fractured enough to allow his ceiling of support to possibly win a plurality.

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I don't really dispute much of that. Nate does good work, and I'm usually hard-pressed to disagree with his analysis (though I do try).

I was just presenting some interesting facts about this particular caucus. Registered Republicans preferred Santorum. That's interesting. Romney did worse in Iowa this year than he did in 2008. He may have won, but in historical perspective, he's lost ground. That's very interesting. This is the lowest percentage of any candidate who has won Iowa. In the past, people have lost with a greater share of the vote. That's interesting.

Santorum lived in Iowa for the last six months that may be why registered Republicans preferred Santorum.

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Hmm... I can understand the facts you presented. I think your point about Romney doing worse than in 08 makes some sense, but the thing is he is NOW doing better nationally. While he may have lost ground in Iowa (Which I think your point about it is certainly undisputable) he did win a victory there and because of that momentum we now see him rising above 30% in the latest Gallup poll. Santorum meanwhile has jumped to 18% while Gingrich is like a plummeting fighter plane that is trying to fire off a final few desperate shots before the campaign collapses. Basically, Romney has officially broken his 25% cap and is on the rise.

I don't really dispute much of that. Nate does good work, and I'm usually hard-pressed to disagree with his analysis (though I do try).

I was just presenting some interesting facts about this particular caucus. Registered Republicans preferred Santorum. That's interesting. Romney did worse in Iowa this year than he did in 2008. He may have won, but in historical perspective, he's lost ground. That's very interesting. This is the lowest percentage of any candidate who has won Iowa. In the past, people have lost with a greater share of the vote. That's interesting.

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Hmm... I can understand the facts you presented. I think your point about Romney doing worse than in 08 makes some sense, but the thing is he is NOW doing better nationally. While he may have lost ground in Iowa (Which I think your point about it is certainly undisputable) he did win a victory there and because of that momentum we now see him rising above 30% in the latest Gallup poll. Santorum meanwhile has jumped to 18% while Gingrich is like a plummeting fighter plane that is trying to fire off a final few desperate shots before the campaign collapses. Basically, Romney has officially broken his 25% cap and is on the rise.

I agree, Romney is on the rise and will most likely be the nominee.

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Hmm... I can understand the facts you presented. I think your point about Romney doing worse than in 08 makes some sense, but the thing is he is NOW doing better nationally. While he may have lost ground in Iowa (Which I think your point about it is certainly undisputable) he did win a victory there and because of that momentum we now see him rising above 30% in the latest Gallup poll. Santorum meanwhile has jumped to 18% while Gingrich is like a plummeting fighter plane that is trying to fire off a final few desperate shots before the campaign collapses. Basically, Romney has officially broken his 25% cap and is on the rise.

Well, we have seen how quickly someone can fall from a rise. I would be cautious about Romney's surging in the polls until he's solidified a few solid wins other than New Hampsire. Iowa really can't be called a victory. 8 votes is well within the margin of error for a caucus.

We'll see what happens. A few more candidates will drop out. That will definitely affect the race, since Romney really does need the conservative vote split.

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Well, we have seen how quickly someone can fall from a rise. I would be cautious about Romney's surging in the polls until he's solidified a few solid wins other than New Hampsire. Iowa really can't be called a victory. 8 votes is well within the margin of error for a caucus.

We'll see what happens. A few more candidates will drop out. That will definitely affect the race, since Romney really does need the conservative vote split.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_107925.pdf Gingrich and Perry staying in the race (at least until South Carolina) will hurt Santorum, but if Romney wins South Carolina which is likely given that Romney leads there and will have momentum from New Hampshire, Santorum simply wouldn't have a path forward. Romney has soared in national polls gaining 6 to 7 points since winning Iowa. Since the media protrayed Iowa as a victory for Romney, Romney got positive momentum and press from Iowa.

"The other campaigns have decided Romney is the dragon they have to slay," said one well-connected Columbia insider who talks regularly with all of the presidential campaigns. "This is their last chance to stop Romney." http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/08/politics/south-carolina-primary/index.html

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There is something significantly different between past surges of Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and Michele Bachmann in comparison to Romney's recent jump.

First off, the three blind mice (Cain, Perry, and Bachmann) all surged when they ENTERED the race. Romney is surging when candidates like Bachmann are leaving. That basically means that they have now gone to their second choice. Plus, that shows that Romney was on these voter's radars the entire time. Plus, it is also more unlikely that these new Romney supporters will switch since there are fewer candidates as well as the fact that Romney seems a lock for the nomination.

Yes, Romney does need to win over the conservative vote. But that is what he is doing right now. Bachmann withdraws since she is averaging about 5% in the polls. Guess what? We see Romney surge by about 4%. That basically means that Romney gained from Bachmann's loss. Bachmann's campaign was full of far right radicals (which even though I am conservative, I do not associate with). Well, that means Romney has the ability to unite moderates with conservatives. :D

Well, we have seen how quickly someone can fall from a rise. I would be cautious about Romney's surging in the polls until he's solidified a few solid wins other than New Hampsire. Iowa really can't be called a victory. 8 votes is well within the margin of error for a caucus.

We'll see what happens. A few more candidates will drop out. That will definitely affect the race, since Romney really does need the conservative vote split.

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There is something significantly different between past surges of Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and Michele Bachmann in comparison to Romney's recent jump.

First off, the three blind mice (Cain, Perry, and Bachmann) all surged when they ENTERED the race. Romney is surging when candidates like Bachmann are leaving. That basically means that they have now gone to their second choice. Plus, that shows that Romney was on these voter's radars the entire time. Plus, it is also more unlikely that these new Romney supporters will switch since there are fewer candidates as well as the fact that Romney seems a lock for the nomination.

Yes, Romney does need to win over the conservative vote. But that is what he is doing right now. Bachmann withdraws since she is averaging about 5% in the polls. Guess what? We see Romney surge by about 4%. That basically means that Romney gained from Bachmann's loss. Bachmann's campaign was full of far right radicals (which even though I am conservative, I do not associate with). Well, that means Romney has the ability to unite moderates with conservatives. :D

Not to mention that Romney can always chose a running mate that broadens his appeal.

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Right now, Romney is on brink of accomplishing something no candidate has ever accomplished. Winning both Iowa and New Hampshire with no incumbent running within the Republican Party.

Winning just Iowa or winning just New Hampshire helps secure South Carolina alot. And usually, the more funded candidate as well as the candidate performing best nationally wins South Carolina...

2008

Iowa-Huckabee

New Hampshire-McCain

South Carolina-McCain

2000

Iowa-Bush

New Hampshire-McCain

South Carolina- Bush

1996

Iowa-Dole

New Hampshire-Buchanan

South Carolina-Dole

McCain, Bush, and Dole all had much more money and resources than their opponents. Romney won Iowa and is guaranteed to win New Hampshire. That would make him pretty much undefeatable.

Also, settling the race THIS EARLY, would put President Obama at a severe disadvantage. After South Carolina and New Hampshire, we'd likely see the following candidates drop out...

1.) Perry (finally...)

2.) Huntsman

3.) Gingrich

4.) Santorum

Ron Paul will stay in the race, but it won't do that much good for him.

Considering Romney will have the nomination in the bag early, that will allow the Massachusetts Governor several months to arm and gather resources before the Conventions for a massive General Election Spending spree.

Also, the GOP has been highly successful in regards to SuperPac fundraising in comparison to Democratic SuperPacs. Romney will be able to save money and gather resources from about now until June for his own campaign. Meanwhile, the SuperPacs will probably launch dozens of attacks on Obama. Obama will in the end be forced to use his own campaign money (because DEM Pacs have lacked enthusiasm) and will have to spend before he wants to. This will force Obama in a hard spot. Either he comes back and counterpunches early yet looses money, or he lets the attacks brew and boil over. Obama will be facing his General Election Challenger alot earlier than he expected.

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Right now, Romney is on brink of accomplishing something no candidate has ever accomplished. Winning both Iowa and New Hampshire with no incumbent running within the Republican Party.

Winning just Iowa or winning just New Hampshire helps secure South Carolina alot. And usually, the more funded candidate as well as the candidate performing best nationally wins South Carolina...

2008

Iowa-Huckabee

New Hampshire-McCain

South Carolina-McCain

2000

Iowa-Bush

New Hampshire-McCain

South Carolina- Bush

1996

Iowa-Dole

New Hampshire-Buchanan

South Carolina-Dole

McCain, Bush, and Dole all had much more money and resources than their opponents. Romney won Iowa and is guaranteed to win New Hampshire. That would make him pretty much undefeatable.

Also, settling the race THIS EARLY, would put President Obama at a severe disadvantage. After South Carolina and New Hampshire, we'd likely see the following candidates drop out...

1.) Perry (finally...)

2.) Huntsman

3.) Gingrich

4.) Santorum

Ron Paul will stay in the race, but it won't do that much good for him.

Considering Romney will have the nomination in the bag early, that will allow the Massachusetts Governor several months to arm and gather resources before the Conventions for a massive General Election Spending spree.

Also, the GOP has been highly successful in regards to SuperPac fundraising in comparison to Democratic SuperPacs. Romney will be able to save money and gather resources from about now until June for his own campaign. Meanwhile, the SuperPacs will probably launch dozens of attacks on Obama. Obama will in the end be forced to use his own campaign money (because DEM Pacs have lacked enthusiasm) and will have to spend before he wants to. This will force Obama in a hard spot. Either he comes back and counterpunches early yet looses money, or he lets the attacks brew and boil over. Obama will be facing his General Election Challenger alot earlier than he expected.

Romney could do so well in South Carolina, he could possibly win all 50 states in the primary.

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Seems possible... I don't see any of the candidates staying in longer than the Michigan Caucus at the latest... I think Romney is definitly going to win 40. The others could follow.

Romney could do so well if he win South Carolina, he could possibly win all 50 states in the primary.

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In the end, President Obama is going to be forced to campaign earlier than he expected or wants...

This is what Romney will be able to do assuming he clinches the nomination early

1.) Develop campaign with more innovative forms of campaigning

2.) Fundraise

3.) Line up candidates for Vice President

4.) Prepare crusaders for the General Election

5.) Work on improving his already strong speech and debate skills

6.) Hammer out more attack ads that can be run at anytime.

7.) Force Obama out into the open and make the incumbent appear vulnerable

8.) Solidify positive response to his economic record

9.) Line up Endorsements

10.) Solidify the base

This is what Obama will be forced to do if Romney clinches early...

1.) Begin adverstising before his planned strategy

2.) Abandon his daily presidential duties to campaign

3.) Launch personal attack ads that have high risk upon Romney

4.) Use up key and essential resources before they are needed

In the end, Obama will be at the disadvantage because he is having to use up fewer resources over a longer period of time. Romney on the other hand will have the enthusiasm of just winning the primaries and will have the SuperPacs to give him to time to assemble his ammunition and build up a solid defense for election day.

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In the end, President Obama is going to be forced to campaign earlier than he expected or wants...

This is what Romney will be able to do assuming he clinches the nomination early

1.) Develop campaign with more innovative forms of campaigning

2.) Fundraise

3.) Line up candidates for Vice President

4.) Prepare crusaders for the General Election

5.) Work on improving his already strong speech and debate skills

6.) Hammer out more attack ads that can be run at anytime.

7.) Force Obama out into the open and make the incumbent appear vulnerable

8.) Solidify positive response to his economic record

9.) Line up Endorsements

10.) Solidify the base

This is what Obama will be forced to do if Romney clinches early...

1.) Begin adverstising before his planned strategy

2.) Abandon his daily presidential duties to campaign

3.) Launch personal attack ads that have high risk upon Romney

4.) Use up key and essential resources before they are needed

In the end, Obama will be at the disadvantage because he is having to use up fewer resources over a longer period of time. Romney on the other hand will have the enthusiasm of just winning the primaries and will have the SuperPacs to give him to time to assemble his ammunition and build up a solid defense for election day.

Although Obama still has left over organization (Organizing for America) from 2008, Howard Dean's fifty-state strategy (the backbone of Obama's 2008 campaign and credited for flipping Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina) doesn't exist anymore. Organizing for America didn't do very well in getting out the vote in 2010 and Romney learned from the Obama 2008 campaign and has been building a national campaign with strong infrastructure for the last since November 5, 2008.

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