Jump to content
270soft Forum
Sign in to follow this  
LordBeckett

Canada - 2015

Results  

7 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will Win?

    • Conservative
      5
    • NDP
      2
    • Liberal
      0
    • Green
      0
  2. 2. Who will form Opposition?

    • Conservative
      2
    • NDP
      0
    • Liberal
      5
    • Green
      0
    • Bloc
      0
  3. 3. Majority or Minority?

    • Majority
      2
    • Minority
      5


Recommended Posts

I think Harper will overreach in implementing a conservative agenda. Canadians kind of just wanted a majority government. But they'll see what a majority Conservative government means, and they won't like it. If Canada had CPV like Australia, or even OPV like was proposed in the UK, the Conservatives would never be able to win government (same in the UK for that matter).

At the 2011 election, the majority of Canadians voted against the Conservatives. While the Liberals lost a lot of votes to the NDP, there were still many voters too cautious to vote for the NDP and so they stayed with the Liberals. Same thing happened with the 2010 UK election (voters wanted to vote LDP, but didn't want a Conservative government, so voted with Labour), but to a lesser extent. I think if the NDP can find a good leader, the 2015 election will see the left rally behind the NDP, probably see the Liberals suffer more vote loss, see the end of the BQ, and see the Conservatives have to fight a unified left.

But really, this far out, who really knows what could happen?

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that we have to look at these facts...

1.) Stephen Harper has served for a LONG time and Canada still isn't tired of him yet

2.) He is a good campaigner.

3.) Arguably, there is no politician in the opposition that is standing out.

I think Harper right now will probably keep the PM job. I think he may lose some support, but right now he has shown the ability to rule over long periods of time without growing too outdated or over used. That's what happened to George W. Bush and others. Harper won't be as sharp as he is now, but he will probably remain Prime Minister.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The idea is that if the NDP elect a weak leader (and they are not the best of opposition right now), I think that they will lose some points in Quebec if they elects anybody else then Mulcair. For the Liberals, all of this will depends if they elect a good leader, I am not sure who they will elect and this especially that the provincial wings are going weaker and weaker.

But again, it's not rare to have the same PM during 10-12 years in Canada.

However, things change fast in Canadian politics. Who knows what could happens in 4 years.

If you want to look at crazy politics right now look at Quebec. Probably that the old party system in place since the 70's will burst after the next election.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The NDP are not faring well without Jack Layton and according to Harris-Decima are tied for 1st in Quebec so I see the liberals forming the opposition.

Harper is already losing votes in polls so I see him with a minority.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It all lies with the leadership convention in March. Polls right now are painful for the NDP in Quebec, but with closer analysis you could easily see that the Liberals are still slipping to the NDP in the Western Provinces, as well as in the Atlantic ones. The only thing cementing the Liberals to a 20-25% range in national polls is their current wave of popularity in Ontario. That being said, the more time without a leader, they slower the momentum gets. If they pick a strong leader and she/he jumps headfirst into opposition they could easily grab back that "Government in waiting" title, and with years to establish themselves, coinciding with the impending provincial win in BC, they could clean up nicely. The Bloc are facing rapid obsolescence and Harper will probably resign by the end of this term, but the party could face a backlash similar to what the PCs got in the 90's. So I'm ultimately going with NDP minority, aided of course by third party Liberals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the NDP nominate anyone other than Thomas Mulclair they're in big trouble. Mulclair is more moderate, and will help take the party closer to the center and squeeze the Liberals even more. We can't forget that most of the NDP surge was in Quebec and Mulclair will help maintain some of those gains (but inevitably they'll lose some too). Also most of the NDP's rise in popularity in Quebec, and across the country was because of Jack Layton. Without him the party is in trouble no matter who they nominate but Mulclair is probably the best option. The Libs are in a similar, but potentially worse position. Rae, at the moment, is their only competent leader and he's vowed not to take the permanent job. If the other parties play their cards right the Liberal Party of Canada may cease to exist. At the moment they have no ideological leg to stand on. Canada is no longer a country that resides in the center. It is becoming increasingly polarized politically and the centrist, flexible positions that the Liberals used to espouse isn't going to help them.

Stephen Harper isn't as unpopular as people seem to think. There is a large contingent of irrational, extremist haters that make people seem to think that he's reviled. Just 7 months ago he won 50% of the vote outside Quebec and his popularity remains largely unchanged. He'll get more careful with his policies as the election draws closer but its encouraging to see someone who has a genuine grasp of how the economy works in charge of the country. The political system in Canada is bad. Much worse in theory than the United States', the Liberals had no problem exploiting that in the 70s and 90s

If Harper doesn't screw things up too badly, he'll probably find himself with little opposition in 2015. Even if he steps down there are plenty of viable successors. I just don't see the NDP being able to maintain the gains they had under Jack Layton, and the Liberals will still be stuck in their limbo, without a decent leader, without any kind of message, and still of the belief that they are the natural governing party of Canada, an elitism they will probably maintain until their ultimate demise.

In short, I don't see it likely that the Conservatives don't remain in power after 2015, and whether they have a majority or minority will largely depend on how the country is doing at the time (which often is beyond the PM's control) and who is leading the other parties.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The NDP's slipping polls in Quebec could be their blessing, because the more their support becomes unsteady in important regions, the more party members will be compelled to vote for Mulcair. Once there is a major voice of opposition, there is a wealth of issues and scandals for the NDP to exploit such as Attawapiskat, the CWB, health care accord in 2014, the Long Gun Registry, etc. That being said, knowing Harper and his campaign style, he could easily exploit Mulcair's somewhat extreme Quebec-centric views, such as his early policy of eliminating English language traffic signs in the province. That could become a huge problem for him from anglophone voters. Again, theres another 4 years for Harper to either demonize himself to the voters or establish himself as a competent leader, and 2 more (or 3) leadership conventions along the way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...