Jump to content
270soft Forum
admin_270

P4E8 2012 Scenario Beta released

Recommended Posts

Something I noticed when skipping the primary and directly starting the GE: In three games, Georgia has been a toss-up after two weeks and went to Obama two times. I haven't looked at the numbers, but the state seems to be awfully swingy which it really isn't.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Electability at 0, this is just because the candidate has really negative momentum. Once, say, Romney's momentum returns to around 0, that number goes up to 100 or so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Having a constantly recurring economic event about economy that impacts Obama's Leadership or Experience could work to keep his momentum down due to money advantage during Republican primaries ..

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2012 scenario updated.

Download

v. 1.1

- 2012 scenario icon

- Roemer off by default

- Chris Christie slot moved down

- Sarah Palin slot moved down

- reduced impact of OWS event

- added economic events that impact Obama on Leadership or Experience (35% chance of occurring per turn in primaries, 25% in general)

- inter-party (primaries) coefficient 0.001 -> 0.0001 (makes it more difficult to gain voters who are with another party during primaries)

- Republican primary > SC > PR to FPP

- increased Hillary Clinton % strength

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2012 scenario updated.

Download

v. 1.1

- 2012 scenario icon

- Roemer off by default

- Chris Christie slot moved down

- Sarah Palin slot moved down

- reduced impact of OWS event

- added economic events that impact Obama on Leadership or Experience (35% chance of occurring per turn in primaries, 25% in general)

- inter-party (primaries) coefficient 0.001 -> 0.0001 (makes it more difficult to gain voters who are with another party during primaries)

- Republican primary > SC > PR to FPP

- increased Hillary Clinton % strength

Thanks, this fixed the major problem!

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2012 scenario updated.

Download

v. 1.2

- Herman Cain > Issue Familiarity 3 -> 2

- Rick Perry > Issue Familiarity 4 -> 3

- Ron Paul > Integrity 4 -> 5

- Michele Bachmann > Experience 3 -> 2

- Rick Santorum > Leadership 4 -> 3, Experience 4 -> 3

- Sarah Palin > Integrity 2 -> 3

- Scripted event > Ohio Voters ... > momentum 100 -> 1 (note: anything above 2 is treated as 2, and similarly for negative values)

- Scripted event > Occupy Wall Street .. > momentum 100 -> 1

- Hillary Clinton > New York, Arkansas > increased %s

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, PM4E Canada 2011 is almost finalized. I expect a new version within a week. Then, PM4E Australia 2011 should be released in short order after that.

When can we expect a new PM4E Canada 2011 version? By end of November?

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

- Ron Paul > Integrity 4 -> 5

I don't know if I like that. Ron Paul is already pretty overpowered. It almost seems to be a plague of the US scenarios that Ron Paul is overpowered. He attracts a pretty solid amount of the vote, but I don't think he'll ever win a state in the primaries, barring something incredible.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right - noted.

I don't know if I like that. Ron Paul is already pretty overpowered. It almost seems to be a plague of the US scenarios that Ron Paul is overpowered. He attracts a pretty solid amount of the vote, but I don't think he'll ever win a state in the primaries, barring something incredible.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks!!!

What kind of updates?

I'm hoping for a decent preferences system. I'm very curious to play Canada with preferences, to see how they would flow.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Preferences will be released with Australia.

I'm hoping for a decent preferences system. I'm very curious to play Canada with preferences, to see how they would flow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Preferences will be released with Australia.

How easy will it be to port Canada scenarios to Australia then?

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overall, I like the scenario, but Obama when not facing Clinton is too powerful. I ran a spacebar and Obama ended up beating Perry/Gingrich 530-18 with 60% of the vote. He even won Texas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi James,

Can you confirm you were playing with scenario version 1.1 or greater (it says on the scenario title)?

Overall, I like the scenario, but Obama when not facing Clinton is too powerful. I ran a spacebar and Obama ended up beating Perry/Gingrich 530-18 with 60% of the vote. He even won Texas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overall, I like the scenario, but Obama when not facing Clinton is too powerful. I ran a spacebar and Obama ended up beating Perry/Gingrich 530-18 with 60% of the vote. He even won Texas.

What is a spacebar?

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I, too, spacebarred an election. The Republican primary was quite interesting (and I think realistic) with Gingrich taking it away from Romney by the skin of his teeth.

The General Election, however, turned out to be a complete and utter disaster for Republicans. Over 14% were undecideds on election day, Obama led by 51% to Gingrich's 31%. The final numbers were 529-9 (Gingrich won only AL). There is no way that Georgia will be a toss-up state in 2012 which it is in the scenario.

Played 1.2, and am very excited about it - despite the flaws to be epxected with a beta version. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I, too, spacebarred an election. The Republican primary was quite interesting (and I think realistic) with Gingrich taking it away from Romney by the skin of his teeth.

The General Election, however, turned out to be a complete and utter disaster for Republicans. Over 14% were undecideds on election day, Obama led by 51% to Gingrich's 31%. The final numbers were 529-9 (Gingrich won only AL). There is no way that Georgia will be a toss-up state in 2012 which it is in the scenario.

Played 1.2, and am very excited about it - despite the flaws to be epxected with a beta version. :)

hey guys i fixed some issues. can i upload the scenario?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I, too, spacebarred an election. The Republican primary was quite interesting (and I think realistic) with Gingrich taking it away from Romney by the skin of his teeth.

The General Election, however, turned out to be a complete and utter disaster for Republicans. Over 14% were undecideds on election day, Obama led by 51% to Gingrich's 31%. The final numbers were 529-9 (Gingrich won only AL). There is no way that Georgia will be a toss-up state in 2012 which it is in the scenario.

Played 1.2, and am very excited about it - despite the flaws to be epxected with a beta version. :)

Actually, the only poll I've seen of Georgia this year had Obama leading Gingrich by a point. Admittedly that was back in April...

Are there ways to make the level of dynamic change differ for the primary versus the general election? I feel like recent primaries have just been wild rides with everything turning upside-down several times in the first quarter of the election year, but when we arrive at the general it's all quite rigid, with the national environment maybe changing by a handful of net points over the course of the campaign and the states barely moving relative to one another at all. Making general elections more rigid would make things like a 529-9 Obama landslide when he should be struggling for re-election less likely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, second space bar run, Romney dominated the GOP primaries, and I mean dominated. Cain and Perry dropped dead early on, and no one else managed to catch up. The GE was pretty even until about a week before election night. Romney got a huge surge and took California by almost 5% and lost NY by less than 1%. He won with 352 EVs and 54%v of the vote.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually, that's is conceivable... if the economy hits rock bottom in 2012 due to the Eurozone's collapse, then Obama's job will be shovel ready for Romney.

Ok, second space bar run, Romney dominated the GOP primaries, and I mean dominated. Cain and Perry dropped dead early on, and no one else managed to catch up. The GE was pretty even until about a week before election night. Romney got a huge surge and took California by almost 5% and lost NY by less than 1%. He won with 352 EVs and 54%v of the vote.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...