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Obama: Can he win?

Obama Electability  

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  1. 1. What is President Obama's current political status?

    • He's in the best shape ever. A shoe-in for reelection.
      0
    • Though he has taken a beating, he is still politically strong.
      7
    • It will be hard work, but Obama will probably be able to survive 2012.
      9
    • Though he is not completely out of it, 2012 will probably be a Republican year.
      7
    • Obama is in poor condition. He is weak for reelection.
      3
    • Obama is a wasted politician. He stands no chance.
      3
  2. 2. Who would be the most electable Republican Candidate?

    • Rick Perry
      2
    • Mitt Romney
      15
    • Michele Bachmann
      1
    • Ron Paul
      2
    • Jon Huntsman Jr.
      4
    • Herman Cain
      1
    • Rick Santorum
      0
    • Newt Gingrich
      0
    • Thad McCotter
      0
    • Gary Johnson
      0
    • Sarah Palin (if she runs)
      2
    • Rudy Giuliani (if he runs)
      2
  3. 3. Which of the following would be most successful in challenging Obama for the Democratic nomination?

    • Russ Feingold
      13
    • Howard Dean
      4
    • Bernie Sanders
      0
    • Andruw Cuomo
      9
    • Dennis Kucinich
      3


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Also from that link...

"But the same poll showed Americans fault former President George W. Bush even more, a trend that's remained since Bush left the White House in January 2009 amid the recession."

Obama gets some blame, but Bush still gets far more. All Obama has to do is remind the voters just how much Bush screwed up. Perry is pretty much Bush III, so his campaign won't survive.

Besides, I'd be interested to see a poll asking who of the three is more responsible for the economy:

Bush

Obama

Congress

In a couple of months, when Obama's overwhelmingly popular job plan is attacked by Republicans, you'll see the blame shift more and more away from him and more and more towards the Republican congress.

Ultimately, poeple are going to vote whether or not they were better off four years ago. It is President Obama sole responsiblity to turn the economy around now not President Bush's or Congress. Americans wanted Obama to deliver and he didn't. 2012 will be a referendum of President Obama's economic record. President Obama will not be reelected. Governor Mitt Romney will most likely be the Republican nominee and the next President.

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One could agrue that Obama was the third-term of George W. Bush. Obama agreed to Bush-Obama Tax Cuts, kept Timothy Geithner and Ben Bernanke (both Bush advisors) as top economic advisors, cut spending which cost jobs, extend the wars and (started half of one), and continued deregulation.

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Also from that link...

"But the same poll showed Americans fault former President George W. Bush even more, a trend that's remained since Bush left the White House in January 2009 amid the recession."

Obama gets some blame, but Bush still gets far more. All Obama has to do is remind the voters just how much Bush screwed up. Perry is pretty much Bush III, so his campaign won't survive.

Besides, I'd be interested to see a poll asking who of the three is more responsible for the economy:

Bush

Obama

Congress

In a couple of months, when Obama's overwhelmingly popular job plan is attacked by Republicans, you'll see the blame shift more and more away from him and more and more towards the Republican congress.

Asked to compare President Obama to former president George W. Bush, 56 percent said that Obama was either “worse” (34 percent) or “about the same” (22 percent) than Bush, said a USA Today/Gallup poll.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64289.html

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Republican Definition of American Exceptionalism- "America has a unique set of moral values and beliefs that set us apart from other nations"

Obama Definition of American Exceptionalism- "Everyone views their own country as the greatest. So do I!"

"American Exceptionalism? Nope. Obama said himself that he believes in American exceptionalism the same way Greeks believe in Greek Exceptionalism and how Brits believe in British exceptionalism"

Obama was just implying that people from other counties believe they are expectional too. This is nonsense issue which is probably racial motivated. Obama has given plenty of speechs about how America is the greatest country on Earth. What really concerned me was Obama voting present 150 times and not taking a clear stand on the issues and caring about furthering his political carrer (and to lesser extent his experience). That's what you should be critizing! What matters to me is putting our Country First. I stared into Senator John McCain's soul and he passed the character test. He would truly do what he believed what was right for the country. If it was up to me, John Sidney McCain III would be 44th President and Joe Lieberman would be his Vice-President.

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Actually, Bush introducted 91,000 new regulations...yes 91,000. Clinton cut 91 regulations.

Obama continued to regulate the markets with the Dodd-Frank Law.

One could agrue that Obama was the third-term of George W. Bush. Obama agreed to Bush-Obama Tax Cuts, kept Timothy Geithner and Ben Bernanke (both Bush advisors) as top economic advisors, cut spending which cost jobs, extend the wars and (started half of one), and continued deregulation.

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Actually, Bush introducted 91,000 new regulations...yes 91,000. Clinton cut 91 regulations.

Obama continued to regulate the markets with the Dodd-Frank Law.

Bush introducted 90,000 new regulation because he create the department of the homeland security. Dodd-Frank did not regulate anything and didn't fix the problem. We going to have another Great Recession, we are not regulating derivities. The only good thing from Dodd-Frank was the consumer protection agency which has no head. We have a basically complete Laissez Faire free-market economy under Bush and Obama and our economy stinks.

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Republican Definition of American Exceptionalism- "America has a unique set of moral values and beliefs that set us apart from other nations"

Obama Definition of American Exceptionalism- "Everyone views their own country as the greatest. So do I!"

President Obama will not be getting my vote in 2012, but he shouldn't have to deal with these race based attacks. These race-based attacks are unreasonable! No other candidate in 2008 got questioned on whether they believe in American Exceptionalism! Obama did not want to seem arrogant and wanted to show the world that America cared what other countries think unlike George W. Bush. Can you say that Obama cares for about winning elections than the country? Yes. Can you say that for most Democrats and Republicans? Yes. Can you say that all of those people don't care about the country? No, it's just not more important than winning relection.

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Elliot.

Progressivism is a liberal ideology. Get over yourself! The world doesn't depend on the election of Russ Feingold, or Bernie Sanders, or Al Gore! Neither does our country!

America IS NOT progressive! it is Conservative! 40% consider themselves Conservative! around 20% moderate and 20% liberal! Most liberals define themselves as progressives while most conservatives oppose progressivism. Get over yourself!

Russ Feingold is not going to run! Get over yourself!

Obama has a fighting chance for reelection! Never rule a candidate out! Get over yourself!

Rick Perry has a solid economic record! Get over yourself!

Progressivism is in terrible shape politically after the 2010 races! Get over yourself!

Wake up Elliot! America is conservative! Open your eyes! MOST EVERY FAIR POLL IN THE USA SAYS WE ARE A CONSERVATIVE COUNTRY!

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How about Bernie Madoff, wasteful spending by both Democrats and Republicans, and the sacrifice of free market principles?

Also from that link...

"But the same poll showed Americans fault former President George W. Bush even more, a trend that's remained since Bush left the White House in January 2009 amid the recession."

Obama gets some blame, but Bush still gets far more. All Obama has to do is remind the voters just how much Bush screwed up. Perry is pretty much Bush III, so his campaign won't survive.

Besides, I'd be interested to see a poll asking who of the three is more responsible for the economy:

Bush

Obama

Congress

In a couple of months, when Obama's overwhelmingly popular job plan is attacked by Republicans, you'll see the blame shift more and more away from him and more and more towards the Republican congress.

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How did that work for George Bush in 1992?

The scenario I gave suggested al-Qaeda was completely gone. Bush Sr. never got rid of Saddam. He lost reelection. Bush Jr. finished the job and got rid of Saddam. He got reelected.

Evidence for Obama ReElection:

1. Possibility of a weak GOP Candidate being nominated

2. His charisma is still around.

There are problems with both of these, Foreign policy rarely decides election (think 1992). The Progressive feels ready to primary Obama. Obama will lose his base entirely if he cuts Social Security, Medicare, or Medicade.

1. Foreign policy. Reducing violence in Afghanistan. Killing Bin Laden. Putting al-Qaeda on the ropes. The START Treaty.

3. A supporting (if not enthusiastic) base

Evidence for Obama Unelected:

1. Economy. No president has won an election with employment above 7.2% since FDR.

2. Unemployment. FDR significantly decreased unemployment. Obama has seen increases up to 9.6%

Healthcare law unpopular.

A new AP poll finds that Americans who think the law should have done more outnumber those who think the government should stay out of health care by 2-to-1.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/09/25/repeal-americans-health-reform-poll-finds/

Charges among some that he does not believe in American Exceptionalism and American Greatness

Of course, Obama believes in American Expectionlism, his story could only happen in America!

While I believe that 2012 is anyone's game (Except Thad McCotter, Ron Paul, Palin, and Bachmann), I think that the GOP might have an edge. Obama has lost alot of his political shine in the past few months domestically...but...

...if the economy improves, then he will be reelected

It is not going to happen.

...if Obama manages to finish the job with al-Qaeda, Americans may overlook the economy

How did that work out for George Bush in 1992?

...if Obama agrees to significant budget cuts without touching Social Security, Medicare, and Medicade he may be viewed as uniting Bill Clinton

Budget cuts devastate the economy.Unemployment will rise.

However, if the war in Afghanistan drags on and the economy continues to struggle, then I could see Mitt Romney or Rick Perry beat Obama.

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How did that work for George Bush in 1992?

The scenario I gave suggested al-Qaeda was completely gone. Bush Sr. never got rid of Saddam. He lost reelection. Bush Jr. finished the job and got rid of Saddam. He got reelected.

"It's the economy, stupid!" - James Carville

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How about Bernie Madoff, wasteful spending by both Democrats and Republicans, and the sacrifice of free market principles?

We need to get rid pork barrel spending! We spend on jobs like we did during the Great Depression. We have basically a 100% deregulated free market economy now like 1929. In about a year we are headed into another one.

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Elliot.

Progressivism is a liberal ideology. Get over yourself! The world doesn't depend on the election of Russ Feingold, or Bernie Sanders, or Al Gore! Neither does our country!

America IS NOT progressive! it is Conservative! 40% consider themselves Conservative! around 20% moderate and 20% liberal! Most liberals define themselves as progressives while most conservatives oppose progressivism. Get over yourself!

Russ Feingold is not going to run! Get over yourself!

Obama has a fighting chance for reelection! Never rule a candidate out! Get over yourself!

Rick Perry has a solid economic record! Get over yourself!

Progressivism is in terrible shape politically after the 2010 races! Get over yourself!

Wake up Elliot! America is conservative! Open your eyes! MOST EVERY FAIR POLL IN THE USA SAYS WE ARE A CONSERVATIVE COUNTRY!

We need a Progressive President and policy to get the need to save the economy. If Senator Feingold or another Democrat doesn't run, Dylan Ratigan or someone else will.

Obama doesn't have chance because the economy sucks, won't get better, and its getting to point that I think almost anyone can win against Obama.

Rick Perry doesn't have a good conservative job record goverment spending helped Texas. Go read the debunking the Texas mircle http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CyHjD1VzJQk/Tl0icdJ7VqI/AAAAAAAAAD8/g2ahuUYinE0/s1600/perry.jpg

In mid-terms, Republicans tend to vote, while Democrats tend stay home, it was certainly the case in 2010, Conservatives were energized while Progressives were not. Core Democratic constitutences like young voters don't come out during the mid-terms.

Liberal was made a dirty word. People don't want to be associated with the term liberal. issues by issue polls are the way to go.

How Rick Perry Got Rich On The Job
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Liberal was made a dirty word. People don't want to be associated with the term liberal. issues by issue polls are the way to go.

Issue by issue, people are overwhelmingly more liberal and progressive than they realise. 60% of Republicans support raising taxes for rich - a staple of liberal/progressive ideology.

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We don't need another progressive in the White House. We need someone who is going to do five things...

1.) Get our jobs back!

2.) Cut our debt in half by 2020

3.) Rebuild our military to cope with threats internationally

4.) Reduce dependency of American citizens upon government programs.

About Rick Perry, get over yourself. Almost every economist on planet earth admits that Perry's economy is a magnet for jobseekers. Oh,and by the way...Texas's unemployment rate is somewhat high...BECAUSE EVERYONE IS MOVING TO TEXAS BECAUSE THAT'S THE ONLY PLACE WHERE JOBS ARE BEING CREATED!!!! PEOPLE KNOW TEXAS IS BOOMING!!! PEOPLE ARE ALMOST FLEEING TO TEXAS FOR JOBS!

About midterms, that is not true. In fact, only once in the past 79 years has an incumbent party made gains in their first midterm (Republicans 2002).

And about America being a progressive country...I'd like you to bring up the real definition of progressivism (without any bias in).

Also, your article was written by a Democratic leaning organization so I'm very compelled to believe it.

We need a Progressive President and policy to get the need to save the economy. If Senator Feingold or another Democrat doesn't run, Dylan Ratigan or someone else will.

Obama doesn't have chance because the economy sucks, won't get better, and its getting to point that I think almost anyone can win against Obama.

Rick Perry doesn't have a good conservative job record goverment spending helped Texas. Go read the debunking the Texas mircle http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CyHjD1VzJQk/Tl0icdJ7VqI/AAAAAAAAAD8/g2ahuUYinE0/s1600/perry.jpg

In mid-terms, Republicans tend to vote, while Democrats tend stay home, it was certainly the case in 2010, Conservatives were energized while Progressives were not. Core Democratic constitutences like young voters don't come out during the mid-terms.

Liberal was made a dirty word. People don't want to be associated with the term liberal. issues by issue polls are the way to go.

How Rick Perry Got Rich On The Job

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BOY! That is an assumption. Explain why Americans voted out the Democrats in 2010? Give me a poll that says that 60% of Republicans support raising taxes for the rich? Explain how Mr. Progressive Russ Feingold got voted out in a state which has been a liberal and progressive haven? Explain how Barnie Frank almost got voted out of a second term in Massachusetts? Explain how Obama is stuck in a tie with Mitt Romney when it comes to pre-election polls?

Issue by issue, people are overwhelmingly more liberal and progressive than they realise. 60% of Republicans support raising taxes for rich - a staple of liberal/progressive ideology.

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We don't need another progressive in the White House. We need someone who is going to do five things...

1.) Get our jobs back!

2.) Cut our debt in half by 2020

3.) Rebuild our military to cope with threats internationally

4.) Reduce dependency of American citizens upon government programs.

About Rick Perry, get over yourself. Almost every economist on planet earth admits that Perry's economy is a magnet for jobseekers. Oh,and by the way...Texas's unemployment rate is somewhat high...BECAUSE EVERYONE IS MOVING TO TEXAS BECAUSE THAT'S THE ONLY PLACE WHERE JOBS ARE BEING CREATED!!!! PEOPLE KNOW TEXAS IS BOOMING!!! PEOPLE ARE ALMOST FLEEING TO TEXAS FOR JOBS!

About midterms, that is not true. In fact, only once in the past 79 years has an incumbent party made gains in their first midterm (Republicans 2002).

And about America being a progressive country...I'd like you to bring up the real definition of progressivism (without any bias in).

Also, your article was written by a Democratic leaning organization so I'm very compelled to believe it.

You can create jobs and cut our debt in half at the same time. By creating jobs you increase the debt(short term) and if you decrease the debt by cutting spending, you lose jobs. We need to decrease military spending, we get rid of threats by either special forces or drone strikes. To fix Social Security and Medicare, you can increase the payroll tax.

"What Texas shows is that a state offering cheap labor and, less important, weak regulation can attract jobs from other states. I believe that the appropriate response to this insight is “Well, duh.” The point is that arguing from this experience that depressing wages and dismantling regulation in America as a whole would create more jobs — which is, whatever Mr. Perry may say, what Perrynomics amounts to in practice — involves a fallacy of composition: every state can’t lure jobs away from every other state."

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/opinion/the-texas-unmiracle.html

Democrats midterms tend to worse because their constituents don't come out to vote in the midterms.

Progressive N. (from merriam webster)

one believing in moderate political change and especially social improvement by governmental action

The actual polls are non-partian.

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BOY! That is an assumption. Explain why Americans voted out the Democrats in 2010? Give me a poll that says that 60% of Republicans support raising taxes for the rich?

Oops, my bad, it was 41%. Memory betrayed me.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149567/Americans-Favor-Jobs-Plan-Proposals-Including-Taxing-Rich.aspx

41% of Republicans support increasing taxes on individuals earning over $200 000 per year. Still speaks quite strongly. Four in ten Republicans support an idea fundamental to progressive/liberal ideology. If I had to sum up "liberalism" in one bit of policy, it would be taxing the rich. It is probably the most fundamental, core value of liberalism. And four in ten Republicans support it.

As for the rest of your arguments: fairly unsubstantiatable partisan rubbish.

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BOY! That is an assumption. Explain why Americans voted out the Democrats in 2010? Give me a poll that says that 60% of Republicans support raising taxes for the rich? Explain how Mr. Progressive Russ Feingold got voted out in a state which has been a liberal and progressive haven? Explain how Barnie Frank almost got voted out of a second term in Massachusetts? Explain how Obama is stuck in a tie with Mitt Romney when it comes to pre-election polls?

Issue by issue, Americans are clearly Progressive. When the economy stinks, American voters tend to vote against the President's party combined with low turnout of key Democratic constitutents led to the results of 2010. Voters blame the President and his party. Republicans will probably make gains in the House, win control of the Senate, and win the White House.

"Seventy two percent of American adults said they favor tax hikes on the rich, including 91 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents. Fifty-four percent of the general public strongly” supported the idea, putting Obama on the side of public opinion in his promise to end the Bush tax cuts on high income earners as scheduled at the end of 2012."

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/04/20/poll-majority-of-republicans-want-higher-taxes-on-the-rich/

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When you cut spending, you lose very few jobs. In fact, it actually helps the free-market more. Companies won't be relying on the federal "Crutch" to keep itself alive. And if that company fails, then better run corporations will recieve more demand. With more demand comes more money, more money equals more productivity, more productivity requires jobs.

About Texas, compared to Feingold's Wisconsin and Obama's America, Perry's economy looks like heaven. Labor unions aren't squeezing the life out of companies.

And about your definition...that means that most GOPers are progressives. UNDER THAT DEFINITION. Though I don't believe the GOP believes in Feingold progressivism, we can all believe in a form of progressivism in general.

I was not quoting the polls. I was quoting your sources that said Rick Perry's economy stinks, how liberal progressivism is the key to our future, and how America needs a progressive leader.

You can create jobs and cut our debt in half at the same time. By creating jobs you increase the debt(short term) and if you decrease the debt by cutting spending, you lose jobs. We need to decrease military spending, we get rid of threats by either special forces or drone strikes. To fix Social Security and Medicare, you can increase the payroll tax.

"What Texas shows is that a state offering cheap labor and, less important, weak regulation can attract jobs from other states. I believe that the appropriate response to this insight is “Well, duh.” The point is that arguing from this experience that depressing wages and dismantling regulation in America as a whole would create more jobs — which is, whatever Mr. Perry may say, what Perrynomics amounts to in practice — involves a fallacy of composition: every state can’t lure jobs away from every other state."

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/opinion/the-texas-unmiracle.html

Democrats midterms tend to worse because their constituents don't come out to vote in the midterms.

Progressive N. (from merriam webster)

one believing in moderate political change and especially social improvement by governmental action

The actual polls are non-partian.

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By the way, Rawstory is not a very credible site. According to the WSJ (a very credible paper), Americans only narrowly support tax hikes for the rich. That percentage has decreased noticably.

Issue by issue, Americans are clearly Progressive. When the economy stinks, American voters tend to vote against the President's party combined with low turnout of key Democratic constitutents led to the results of 2010. Voters blame the President and his party. Republicans will probably make gains in the House, win control of the Senate, and win the White House.

"Seventy two percent of American adults said they favor tax hikes on the rich, including 91 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents. Fifty-four percent of the general public strongly” supported the idea, putting Obama on the side of public opinion in his promise to end the Bush tax cuts on high income earners as scheduled at the end of 2012."

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/04/20/poll-majority-of-republicans-want-higher-taxes-on-the-rich/

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Actually, I have a Democrats who believe in conservatism...

Bill Clinton (Cut taxes, cut spending, reduced the debt, tore down financial regulations, and decreased dependency on welfare)

If I remember correctly, Democrats view Clinton as one of the greatest presidents ever.

As for 41% of Republicans, you must look at the wording of the poll (like you said). If that were true, than I think there would alot more Republicans in COngress pushing for tax hikes.

Oops, my bad, it was 41%. Memory betrayed me.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149567/Americans-Favor-Jobs-Plan-Proposals-Including-Taxing-Rich.aspx

41% of Republicans support increasing taxes on individuals earning over $200 000 per year. Still speaks quite strongly. Four in ten Republicans support an idea fundamental to progressive/liberal ideology. If I had to sum up "liberalism" in one bit of policy, it would be taxing the rich. It is probably the most fundamental, core value of liberalism. And four in ten Republicans support it.

As for the rest of your arguments: fairly unsubstantiatable partisan rubbish.

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