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Canadian Republic 2015

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Wow, its been years since I've played P4E or been on this site. I've recently become politically reinvigerated and want to get back into playing the game and making scenarios. For the few who may remember me (I recognize some of you), I was working on (along with a few others) a Canada-US union scenario. Moderate progress was made and it all fell apart. Eventually I'd like to continue work on that (or possibly start it all over again) but for now I'd like to work on another scenario I've been thinking about. With the recent Harper majority Canada has a stable government for the next 4-5 years. But say after that, for whatever reason that become a republic, with a seperatley elected executive. I'd like to create that scenario. Seeing as I'm quite rusty I'm going to need some help. I have a general idea of what I want to do but need some help on the more detailed aspects. I'd imagine such an election would be a two way race between the Tories and NDP, with the Liberals trailing trying to regain past glory under the new system. The Bloc will look to bounce back from their embarrassment in the 2011 election. I intend to base the numbers roughly on the 2011 results which under an electoral system would leave a competitive race between the Cons and the NDP. Things I'm going to need help with:

Candidates-I don't know if I want to have Harper on by default or not. I highly doubt he'll remain head of the tories after this current term but under a new system be may like to try his hand at President of Canada. Same goes for Layton, hes highly popular but his health may be a concern. The Liberal and Bloc field is wide open.

Endorsers and Interviewers- I guess I have somewhat of a handle on this but could always use feedback

Issues-Because its hard to speculate how 4 years of Harper is going to go (but I'd wager on fabulously), I think the issues should remain relativley

similar to those of today

Electoral ratios and delegates- I remember back in the say there was a nice little template for electoral votes in Canada but I wouldn't know where to look

Primaries-I think having the Atlantic primaries earlier would make the most sense for the same reasons smaller American States have earlier primaries

Any help would be greatly appreciated

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Love the idea, however, don't handicap the liberals too much, or over inflate the NDP, as a lot of their support was limited to regions such as Quebec.

Candidates: Tories (Harper) and NDP (Layton) are a given. For the liberals, Bob Rae or Justin Trudeau are potentially frontrunners, though you could probably put in Ralph Goodale. Greens would be the fourth party, with Elizabeth May.

Issues: The one that I would make sure you add is debt & deficit, as that is/will be a key issue.

Electoral Ratios/Delegates: Currently, the seat distributions in canada are as follows:

Ontario 106

Quebec 75

British Columbia 36

Alberta 28

Manitoba 14

Saskatchewan 14

Nova Scotia 11

New Brunswick 10

Newfoundland and Labrador 7

Prince Edward Island 4

NWT/YK/NVT 3

However, the 2011 census will result in some redistribution. PEI is constitutionally mandated to have 4 senate seats (house of commons must be at least equal to representation in the senate), but you could go from there. My recommendation would be something along the lines of:

Ontario 100

Quebec 60

British Columbia 40

Alberta 30

Manitoba 15

Saskatchewan 16

Nova Scotia 7

New Brunswick 7

Newfoundland and Labrador 8

Prince Edward Island 4

NWT/YK/NVT 3

-

Electoral Votes 290

Primary Times: ATL-16:00 (16:30 for NFLD), QUE/ONT/NVT/MAN-17:00, SASK-18:00, AB/NWT-19:00, BC/YK-20:00

These are my suggestions/ideas. Best of luck!

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Thanks for the input. I've already added deficit and debt as an issue. I honeslty think the big issue in the next election will be healthcare. Costs are rising faster than funding and Harper has a perfect solution that Jack Layton, and most of the Canadian people are terrified of. I assume we'll be out of Afghanistan by then and lord knows what other problems in the middle east will arise. Perhaps "Democracy in the Middle East" could be an all encompassing foriegn policy issue.

Right now the biggest challenge is candidates. There really aren't a lot of Conservatives or NDPers to make for a competitive primary, and I don't know if Harper or Layton will be in the picture come 2015.

Also I need a lot of help with interviews and endorsers. Aside from the major TV networks I really can't come up with any major interviews and other than the Premiers and major newpapers I don't really know any major endorsers.

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Issues are done, political units are done but it won't let me continue because it says I haven't added the flags, even though I did.

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I actually have a Canadian Republic 2012 scenario with a full primary field for the Conservatives, Liberals, NDP, Bloc, and Greens (though a number of these probably are no longer viable). I also have political institutions, premiers, and newspapers for endorsers. I had actually merged House and Senate seats for EV's, but that skewed thing sharply in favour of Ontario and Quebec. If you'd like to see it, I can send it to you.

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I actually have a Canadian Republic 2012 scenario with a full primary field for the Conservatives, Liberals, NDP, Bloc, and Greens (though a number of these probably are no longer viable). I also have political institutions, premiers, and newspapers for endorsers. I had actually merged House and Senate seats for EV's, but that skewed thing sharply in favour of Ontario and Quebec. If you'd like to see it, I can send it to you.

That would be great, though I think the Canadian political landscape has changed considerably since then.

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Map is done. Parties are started. Have 5 Con candidates (Harper, Maxime Bernier, Peter Mackay, Stockwell Day and Danny Williams. Yeah most of them are unlikely to run but I think the primaries should be competitive). Have all the primary dates done for the Cons and NDP, I've scheduled them so that the small provinces have primaries first and the bigger provinces are dead last to try to equalize the importance all provinces. Con primaries are FPP, NDP are PR. Next priority is to do the NDP candidates. I'm waiting until all parties are done to do the %s. So far for the NDP I have Layton, Mulclaire and Olivia Chow off by default (obviously intended to be played if Layton is turned off)

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Based on the recent election, I have a few ideas for candidates:

CONSERVATIVES:

Stephen Harper

Bernard Lord

Peter MacKay

Jim Flaherty

Tony Clement

Jason Kenney

Peter Kent

John Baird

Maxime Bernier

Mario Dumont (OFF)

NDP:

Jack Layton

Thomas Mulcair

Libby Davies

David Christoperson

Jack Harris

Gary Doer (OFF)

Olivia Chow (OFF)

LIBERALS:

Bob Rae

Justin Trudeau

Ralph Goodale

Denis Coderre

Dominic Leblanc

Frank McKenna (OFF)

John Manley (OFF)

GREENS:

Elizabeth May

Adrienne Carr

INDEPENDANTS:

Garth Turner (OFF)

André Arthur (OFF)

Jean-François Mercier (OFF)

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The only way I'd see a Canadian Republic would be with a referendum under Layton, so maybe an NDP alternate history would be best. And elder statesmen would be more likely to run for this office if it were the same as the Governor General.

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Everything is done except endorsers. For province specific endorsers I intend to go with one major regional newspaper and the current premier. For national ones I'll go with the major national newspapers and perhaps a few PACs

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Scenario is done. Several tests indicate a few problems with the numbers that I can't seem to fix.

Danny Williams is way to strong, despite having low numbers and high alienated in everywhere except the maritimtes.

Stockwell Day is a little too strong

The Greens are WAY to strong. I've seen May win Saskatchewan and sweep the North and maritimes and be elected by the house. They usually get around the same votes as the Liberals.

The scenario is unpolished and there are probably several small errors, if anyone would like to take a look at it and fix whatever they see necessary leave your email.

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For some reason the folder for the scenario doesn't exist on my computer, yet I can still play the scenario. When I find out whats wrong I'll send them out

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