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UK General Election 2010 Predictions

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Post your predictions of what you think the result of the Election will be here. No partisan comments, please.

I think it will be a hung parliament, with the Tories the biggest party, and short by between 20 and 40 seats of an overall majority.

Percentages:

Tories - 35%

Labour - 30%

Lib Dems - 27%

Others - 8%

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Will the shy Tory factor will be there?

If so, I believe that it will go like this and this especially with Gordon Brown horrible last days:

Tories - 38%

Lib Dems - 31%

Labour - 23%

Others - 8%

With that, Labour will have their worst result since 1922.

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Tories - 33%

Lib Dem - 30%

Labour - 27%

Other - 10%

But Labour or the Tories will get the largest amount of seats.

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Tories 36%

Lib Dems 34%

Labour 22% (That bigot comment will piss voters off)

Other 8%

To be fair, the Woman DID sound very bigoted.

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My prediction

Tories 32% I think the older generations who are the main voters won't forget Thatcher and Major

Lib dem 29% Clegg has the sort of media Darling aura of Blair which will help imensly with votes, but not so much for seats.

Labour 28% Don't think the bigot thing will do too much damage, but years of New Labour has left ordinary voters repulsed.

Others 11% SNP and Plaid to make gains and possibly a UKIP or (God Forbid) BNP MP. Almost certainly a Green Seat and maybe a TUSC or Respect too.

Based on the BBC seat calculater this shows up as

Labour 284

Tories 241

Lib Dem 96

Other 29

Likely to see a Lib/Lab coalition in this case.

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My prediction

Tories 32% I think the older generations who are the main voters won't forget Thatcher and Major

Lib dem 29% Clegg has the sort of media Darling aura of Blair which will help imensly with votes, but not so much for seats.

Labour 28% Don't think the bigot thing will do too much damage, but years of New Labour has left ordinary voters repulsed.

Others 11% SNP and Plaid to make gains and possibly a UKIP or (God Forbid) BNP MP. Almost certainly a Green Seat and maybe a TUSC or Respect too.

Based on the BBC seat calculater this shows up as

Labour 284

Tories 241

Lib Dem 96

Other 29

Likely to see a Lib/Lab coalition in this case.

Ah! I forgot about that!

Here is the seats with my predictions:

259 Con

261 Lab

101 Lib Dem

Other 29

A green seat depends entirely on if Caroline Lucas can pull a win in Brighton Pavilion.

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My prediction

Tories 32% I think the older generations who are the main voters won't forget Thatcher and Major

Lib dem 29% Clegg has the sort of media Darling aura of Blair which will help imensly with votes, but not so much for seats.

Labour 28% Don't think the bigot thing will do too much damage, but years of New Labour has left ordinary voters repulsed.

Others 11% SNP and Plaid to make gains and possibly a UKIP or (God Forbid) BNP MP. Almost certainly a Green Seat and maybe a TUSC or Respect too.

Based on the BBC seat calculater this shows up as

Labour 284

Tories 241

Lib Dem 96

Other 29

Likely to see a Lib/Lab coalition in this case.

Have you been following the election... Clegg has made it abundantly clear that he will not go into a coalition with Labour unless they finish first overall in the popular vote. He even talked about this exact scenario and said he would not support Labour if they were 3rd in popular vote and first in seats. In that situation there would be a Conservative-Lib coalition.

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As for my prediction here it is:

Popular Vote

Conservatives 33%

Liberal Democrats 32%

Labour 25%

Others 10%

BBC Seat Calculator

Conservatives 261 (Short 65 Seats)

Labour 231

Liberal Democrats 129

Others 29

I think Labour is really in a state of collapse but that they won't fall bellow a quarter of the vote. However the Liberal Dems are rising fast and they could make a popular vote challenge to the Conservatives, especially if they can keep the momentum. This would leave one of the most hung parliaments in quite a long time and would give the Liberal Dems an easy rode to pushing through PR voting from now on. However I would not be surprised if the Liberal Dems left the coalition after this was secured in order to force an election and doubtlessly pick up seats, though I believe they'd do that no matter what as a hung parliament seems sure fire.

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At this point, a Lab-Lib coalition will is mainly out of question.

Basically, I think that the future of the Labour Party is very bleak except in their strongholds.

How long does a coalition agreement would last? A year?

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Lab is dieing because Tony Blair effectively turned it into a party on the center-right of British politics.

The Lib Dems are effectively the only Left Alternative this time around.

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Lab is dieing because Tony Blair effectively turned it into a party on the center-right of British politics.

The Lib Dems are effectively the only Left Alternative this time around.

Ironically, if the Labour Party swings at centre-left like in 1992 after a big loss, the Lib Dems will probably swing as a centrist party just like the former Liberals against Old Labour.

However, I don't think that Labour will return in a way to a Michael Foot-like platform.

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Ironically, if the Labour Party swings at centre-left like in 1992 after a big loss, the Lib Dems will probably swing as a centrist party just like the former Liberals against Old Labour.

However, I don't think that Labour will return in a way to a Michael Foot-like platform.

I think you mean Neil Kinnock? Cause Michael Foot was not even close to Center-Left. :P

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To those who rules out a Lib-Lab coalition think on this. For decades the Liberals and Labour have stood opposing the Tories. There is much bad blood beetween Lib/Lab and the tories, so unless Cameron puts the election beyond doubt, I don't think he will be PM. I mean the Liberals have waited decades to be the "King-Makers" and now they have that chache. Their supporters would never forgive them if they held the balance of power and didn't get some advances on PR. This may well happen if labour govern, but very unlikely under Cameron who has denounced PR time and again. Also both Labour and Liberals are pro-europe and slightly pro euro. Someone as pro euro as Clegg and someone as anti-euro as Cameron could never work well together. So i'm calling the next government as a Liberal and Labour pact.

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What else do they do, if we have let's say 280 Conservatives, 240 Labour, and 100 Liberal Democrats? They might very reasonably say, we'll support you long enough to get proportional representation done, and then we'll pull out and make there be another election under the new system, which is, I think, reasonable. But I can't see them just supporting the Conservatives, with whom they disagree on everything, and I don't even know what other options there are when there's no arrangement not involving them (other than a Grand Coalition, which is unlikely, I'd say!) that adds up to a majority.

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I actually could see them forming like a month long coalition, push proportional representation threw, then go for new elections. Of course they couldn't make this plan public as it would make the coalition impossible.

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