Jump to content
270soft Forum
Sign in to follow this  
French conservative

Polish scenario ?

Recommended Posts

At first, I strongly suggest focus on 2011 parliamentary elections, it’s far more interesting and less predictable.

In the incoming presidential elections Civic Platform’s candidate can win in the first tour and, if it takes place, it’s more than obvious he will win in the second tour. Candidate of Law and Justice can fight a bit, maybe Andrzej Olechowski can try to fight for the second place, but it’s not very possible, the rest of all candidates are advertisements of their parties before 2011 local and parliamentary elections.

By the way, why do we need parliamentary (Sejm) constituencies for presidential elections? It has nothing to presidential elections, we choose president in direct voting, not by electorals.

If we still decide to take 2010 presidential elections, there are:

Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska):

Bronislaw Komorowski (speaker of Sejm, the lower house, and acting president) won party’s primaries. His rival was minister of foreign affairs Radoslaw Sikorski. Other theoretically possible candidates were Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz and Jan Krzysztof Bielecki (the second democratic prime minister, till 2010 chairman of the biggest commercial bank in Poland, one of the closest aidee of prime minister Donald Tusk), another – discussed only two or three years ago – was Leszek Balcerowicz (author of Polish economic transformation and later chairman of National Bank of Poland). There also were some rumors Donald Tusk himself can finally decide to stand in the presidential race.

Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc):

In reality we will know their candidate today for sure.

Possibly choices are Jaroslaw Kaczynski (president of the party and former prime minister, twin-brother of deceased president Kaczynski, he will run for 99%), Zbigniew Ziobro (quite popular and very ambitious, controversial former minister of justice, considered as successor of Jaroslaw Kaczynski as the leader of the party), Michal Kleiber (non-partisan former minister of science and advisor to president Kaczynski), Zyta Gilowska (economist, former leader of Civic Platform purged by it's chairman and later prime minister Donald Tusk, later appointed as deputy prime minister and minister of finance in Law and Justice's government, current member of Board of Monetary Policy), Zbigniew Romaszewski (anti-communist oposition hero, former speaker of Senat), Janusz Sniadek (chairman of supporting Law and Justice "Solidarity" trade union)

Alliance of Democratic Left (Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej):

Yesterday they chose party’s chairman Grzegorz Napieralski

Other possible candidates were: Ryszard Kalisz (former minister of interior, popular centre-left politician, supported by former president Alexander Kwasniewski), Tadeusz Iwinski (experienced politician, now member of European Parliament), also idea of party’s support for Andrzej Olechowski or Janusz Onyszkiewicz as a candidate of wide centre-and-left coalition was considered, less probable candidates were: Jozef Oleksy (former prime minister, had to resign because of accusations of cooperation with Russian intelligence, accused of cooperation with secret police of the most brutal Stalinist regime in Poland when he was young), Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz (former prime minister, former minister of justice, former minister of foreign affairs, now independent politician between the left and Civic Platform, he severely denied running for presidency – only he could threaten position of Civic Platform’s candidate, if we run; he is much like McCain in terms of political position), Jolanta Kwasniewska (wife of former president Aleksander Kwasniewski, very popular for her engagement in charity activities, her political strenght makes her comparable to Cristina Kirchner or Hillary Clinton)

Polish People's Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe)

Agrarian party PSL is junior coalition partner of Civic Platform. Their candidate is Waldemar Pawlak, current deputy prime minister and minister of economics (his influence is very limited due to many inside-government actions of premier Donald Tusk).

Other possible candidates of PSL are: deputy speaker of Sejm Ewa Kierzkowska, Stanislaw Zelichowski (experienced politician of this party), former leader of the party Jaroslaw Kalinowski

Minor parties

Democratic Block (Stronnictwo Demokratyczne) - Andrzej Olechowski (very popular among liberals non-partisan politician, experienced in politics and business, former minister of foreign affairs)

Poland Plus (Polska Plus) – Ludwik Dorn (micro-party founded by few politicians who left Law and Justice after purge caused by their demands for more democracy inside the party, before that Ludwik Dorn was called “the third twin-brother” of Kaczynskis, he was deputy prime minister, minister of interior and speaker of Sejm)

Right of the Republic (Prawica Rzeczypospolitej) – Marek Jurek (former Law and Justice speaker of Sejm, left the party after it’s leadership hadn’t support his far-right faction’s proposal of new, more strict abortion law)

Socialdemocracy of Poland (Socjaldemokracja Polski) and Democratic Party-democrats.pl (Partia Demokratyczna - demokraci.pl) – Tomasz Nalecz (chairman of the first parliamentary investigate committee – “Rywingate” investigation committee, very popular at that time), SoP could also consider standing it’s former leader Marek Borowski (very experienced centre-left politician, when member of SLD - former speaker of Sejm and former minister of finance, known for his integrity , “candidate forever” - he run for presidential elections, for Warsaw mayoral elections etc – always lost) while Democratic Party can be represented by Janusz Onyszkiewicz (experienced politician, former minister of privatization)

League of Polish Families (Liga Polskich Rodzin) – Maciej Giertych (far-right former member of European Parliament, father of former deputy prime minister and founder of the party Roman Giertych) or Sylwester Chruszcz (former far-right member of European Parliament)

Self-defence of Republic of Poland - Andrzej Lepper (political zombie - leftist populist, former deputy prime minister and minister of agriculture, ended his career up now outside of the parliament and politics, with his party in ruin, sentenced for rape - but he wants come back!)

Poland Plus and Socialdemocracy of the Republic’s candidates resigned after Smolensk crash – but the reason is they are unable to collect 100 000 signatures to register a candidate in State Electoral Commission before the Monday deadline. All of the rest of minor parties candidates’, maybe except of Andrzej Olechowski, have virtually no chance to meet this condition too.

There are also always some candidates from “outer space”, political paranormals. The only three interesting are Janusz Korwin-Mikke (ultra-conservative/libertarian, his program is very radical), Krzysztof Kononowicz (look for at YouTube :P ) and Stan Tyminski (Polish-Canadian businessman who was the second in the first free Polish presidential elections, beating popular first democratic prime minister Tadeusz Mazowiecki, populist – for example, he proposed Poland build it’s own nuclear weapon).

Date is indeed 20th Jun

I strongly suggest include primaries – Civic Platform was the first Polish party to organize primaries and it was very important event.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Once again thanks for your work...

About parliamentary elections, the reason is simple: Congress for ever is not out yet we just have the "partially private" beta so oing parlimentary elections is not possible with P4E :)

And the point was to do something linked to the President after the crash...

But I totally understand that you are also interested but the parliamentary elections... I think a HUGe part of what we do here will be usefull for a scenario about the 2011 parliamentary election when Congress for ever will be out

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good research MiHao88.

It's possible the parliamentary elections can be done on Chancellor Forever, but there would be 2 problems with that. Only the overall winner from both houses would be announced, and in the constituency FPTP vote, there are more than 1 candidate from the same party standing. Can't be done if only 1 is elected. Congress Forever, I don't think that does PR.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think personnaly that the less important are the following (but I can totally be entirely wrong on that) :

Relations with Ukraine

Gender equality

Rememberence policy

System of financing political parties

Immigration

Constitution amendment

In fact most of those issues are one of the most discussed recently :)

Relations with Ukrain – all mainstream Polish politicians put much effort in supporting Orange Revolution which failed, now they must answer how to build relations with new government of the “blue” camp

Gender equality – a proposal of a bill which will guarantee 50% seats in the parliament for woman is one of hot topics

Rememberence policy – it’s basic part of Law and Justice’s program and president Kaczynski’s agenda

System of financing political parties – it was a big debate about it, thought now it’s indeed frozen topic

Immigration – it’s more local than national problem, there are some tensions about Chechen “refugees” in cities where refugee hostels are located

Constitution amendment – thought it’s virtually impossible to push this idea through the divided parliament (a way to make voters pay attention on “ghost-issue” and not notice Tusk’s government’s failures), recently it was one of main issues in public debate (Donald Tusk wants Germany-like constitution with strong prime minister, while Law and Justice dreams about presidential system)

Those two could probably be put together in the same issue about the EU :

Membership in Euro zone

European constitution/Lisbon Treaty

Those two could probably also be put together in the same issue :

Abortion

In vitro fertilization

It May be difficult to put those issues together because it’s separated in public debate and attitude of politicians about those issues is very different.

Ok, it’s my proposition of 18 issues:

State-Church relations

Abortion

In vitro fertilization

Semi-sex unions

Gender equality

Labour law

Crime law

Lustration

Constitution amendments

Rememberence policy

Central Anti-Corruption Bureau affair

Health care reform

Membership in Euro zone

Eastern Policy [Russia, Ukraine, Georgia]

Polish minority in Belarus

Relations with EU

War on terror

Gambling affair

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

About parliamentary elections, the reason is simple: Congress for ever is not out yet we just have the "partially private" beta so oing parlimentary elections is not possible with P4E :)

And the point was to do something linked to the President after the crash...

I see your point, though Im afraid if we stay strictly down to reality it wont be a passionate game, because the result has been pretty clear for months and the only question is (was because now its clear now too) who will take the second place. How about 2005 presidential elections? Then it was a real race. Or we can make both of them issues and candidates are very similar.

By the way, parliamentary elections would be linked to president Lech Kaczynski, because Jaroslaw Kaczynski is his twin-brother and they look exactly the same (they even made fun of journalists when one came for interview instead of the second and a journalist was unconscious of it)! ;)

Update:

Reading the newest articles and polls, driven by Smolensk tragedy recently support for Law and Justice increased much (before it was abour 25% for Law and Justice and about 50% for Civic Platform) and it's pretty sure Jaroslaw Kaczynski will be LaJ's presidential candidate. Thought I don't believe this atmosphere will survive (time of Law and Justice government is considered by many as very bad for Poland, during his term Lech Kaczynski was supported by about 20% while over 60% considered him as bad president, Jaroslaw Kaczynski is one of the most unpopular and the most distrusted politicians in Poland - though polls favour city voters and downplay rural voters, trends are very clear), if it would - there is a little chance second turn of presidential elections will be a real race between Komorowski and Kaczynski, with significant meaning of support of third-parties whose candidates didn't succeed in the first turn.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see your point, though I’m afraid – if we stay strictly down to reality – it won’t be a passionate game, because the result has been pretty clear for months and the only question is (was – because now it’s clear now too) who will take the second place. How about 2005 presidential elections? Then it was a real race. Or we can make both of them – issues and candidates are very similar.

By the way, parliamentary elections would be linked to president Lech Kaczynski, because Jaroslaw Kaczynski is his twin-brother and they look exactly the same (they even made fun of journalists when one came for interview instead of the second and a journalist was unconscious of it)! ;)

Update:

Reading the newest articles and polls, driven by Smolensk tragedy recently support for Law and Justice increased much (before it was abour 25% for Law and Justice and about 50% for Civic Platform) and it's pretty sure Jaroslaw Kaczynski will be LaJ's presidential candidate. Thought I don't believe this atmosphere will survive (time of Law and Justice government is considered by many as very bad for Poland, during his term Lech Kaczynski was supported by about 20% while over 60% considered him as bad president, Jaroslaw Kaczynski is one of the most unpopular and the most distrusted politicians in Poland - though polls favour city voters and downplay rural voters, trends are very clear), if it would - there is a little chance second turn of presidential elections will be a real race between Komorowski and Kaczynski, with significant meaning of support of third-parties whose candidates didn't succeed in the first turn.

Sorry I did not have enough time to put together all the work already done for the scenario. Next week I should have enough time.

Anyway thanks for this update MiHao !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry I did not have enough time to put together all the work already done for the scenario. Next week I should have enough time.

Anyway thanks for this update MiHao !

Take your time! My pleasure to help you.

By the way, the race is becoming more and more interesting - but it's a very strange because both of major candidates are virtually non-engaged in campaign. Virtually no meetings, virtually no interviews etc. - both sides are afraid to make a decisive step towards real campaign. It seems only in late may the campaign will become more lively. I think - if we want follow those circumstances - very few CP would emulate it.

I wonder if we should use general issues (which I enlisted before) or focus on newest issues which are very temporary.

If you want use temporary issues, it's my proposition:

Lech Kaczynski legacy

Lech Kaczynski funeral in Wawel castle [Wawel castle was traditionally place where Polish kings and heros were buried, while president Kaczynski was very unpopular]

Aircrash investigation [information policy about the aircrash investigation is very unclear and causes many speculations, misunderstandings and conflicts]

"Solidarni" documentary [a very controversial documentary by - under control of Law and Justice - public television TVP]

Campaign funds [Left's leader, as his party is far poorer than the two biggest, proposed to limit campaign spendings to about 1,5 million EUR]

Bilboard campaign [Civic Platform proposed all parties resign from bilboard campaign - the real reason is they were too late to book bilboard place the best places]

Presidential administration nominations [Komorowski made two important nominations in the Office of the President very soon after the crash – nominated people aren’t controversial but the pace of personnel decisions was very tactless]

IPN bill amandement [Pro-LaJ govern body of Institute of National Rememberance tried to choose new chairman of the Institute according to the old bill. Before the Katyn crash parliament voted on an important amandement regarding to competences and structure of IPN govern bodies, which president Kaczynski was against but acting president Komorowski finally signed.]

Engagement in campaign of family members of casualties [there is a public discussion how much family members of people died in Kursk should be engaged in presidential campaign; thought it's definitely not Left-Right division issue and it's mostly about Law and Justice and the Left which loses are the most severe]

New VIP airplanes purchase

Vision of presidency [what kind of president a candidate wants to be – many tell it’s the most important in this campaign, but till now virtually noone has told something interesting]

Day of the Victory celebrations [should Polish president take part in Day of Victory over Nazi celebrations in Moscow – for Poland it was the beginning of new, Soviet occupation, as the Red Army installed communist government by force]

Four more issues, I have no idea now, we will see what happens here!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry I did not have enough time to put together all the work already done for the scenario. Next week I should have enough time.

Anyway thanks for this update MiHao !

If this is the case, I would be glad to help.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×