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Congress Forever 2010 Version Info

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Toomey is now 8.5% of Sestak in PA.

Portman is now 3.7% ahead of Fisher in OH.

Burr is now 7.7% ahead of Marshall in NC.

Buck is now 2.5% ahead of Bennett in CO.

Reid is now 1.3% ahead of Angle in NV.

Rubio is now 2.4% ahead of Crist in FL.

Blunt is now 6.7% ahead of Carnahan in MO.

Boxer is now 3.5% ahead of Fiorina in CA.

Feingold is now 1.0% ahead of Johnson in WI.

Kirk is now 1.5% ahead of Giannoulias in IL.

Murray is now 1.8% ahead of Rossi in WA.

Paul is now 5.5% ahead of Conway in KY.

Ayotte is now 8.0% ahead of Hodes in NH.

Blumenthal is now 7.5% ahead of McMahon in CT.

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WOOHOO! Miller beat Murkowski! So, Joe Miller is now the Republican candidate for Alaska Senate.

Since there's only been one biased poll by Public Policy Polling that put's Miller 8% ahead, I'd say Miller is about 20% ahead. That's combined with a PPP poll that says Murkowski is 32% ahead; the average between the two says Miller is around 20%.

Ther's also been only two polls for WV, both by Rasmussen. Since one outdates the other, Joe Manchin is 6% ahead of John Raese.

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WOOHOO! Miller beat Murkowski! So, Joe Miller is now the Republican candidate for Alaska Senate.

Since there's only been one biased poll by Public Policy Polling that put's Miller 8% ahead, I'd say Miller is about 20% ahead. That's combined with a PPP poll that says Murkowski is 32% ahead; the average between the two says Miller is around 20%.

Ther's also been only two polls for WV, both by Rasmussen. Since one outdates the other, Joe Manchin is 6% ahead of John Raese.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Ahem. Didn't you complain when I suggested that Rasmussen's numbers, statistically speaking, tend to lean about 5 points in favor of the Republican and should therefore be interpreted as such? And instead claim that it is not our place to judge pollsters, and that using the RCP average is the best thing? And for the record, last time I checked, PPP had a pro-Republican house effect this cycle, even though Tom Jensen is a liberal. By your principle, if there's only one Miller vs. McAdams poll, then the straight average is that poll, so Miller's +8.

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RCP hasn't made an average. And PPP is biased; they have a frickin' (D) next to their name just to prove that fact. I'll concede, though.

EVERYONE has a pro-Republican house this cycle; if they didn't, they'd be laughed out of the polling biz. It goes by how much.

Average is now 7%, BTW, thanks to a Rasmussen poll.

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Awesome!

Joe Miller still has the little incumbent "x" next to him, and it's says "Scott McAdamas".

Tim Johnson is more likely the candidate instead of Terrence Wall in Wisconsin; I shoulda mentioned that before.

Other than that; it looks great, and I can't wait to play it!

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In OK-1, C4E has John Sullivan (GOP, inc.) vs. Fran Moghaddam. Fran actually was one of Sullivan's GOP primary challengers - the only other candidate in November is Independent Angelia O'Dell.

In OK-2, the GOP nominee is Charles Thompson (won the August 24th runoff). The C4E GOP nominee is Howard Houchen, who came in 4th in the primary.

In OK-3, Frank Lucas (GOP, inc.) did draw an opponent - Frankie Robbins (D). In C4E, he doesn't have one.

In OK-4, Tom Cole (GOP, inc.) has no opponent, which is how it is shown in C4E. However, the latest C4E version lists OK-4 as OK-1, making two OK-1 districts.

In OK-5, it's actually James Lankford ® versus Billy Coyle (D). C4E has it between Kevin Calvey (R - lost in runoff to Lankford) vs. Michael Thompson (D - but actually was one of 7 GOP primary candidates).

UPDATE: Also, on the Senate scenario, the Democrat candidate should be Jim Rogers (a perennial candidate). Brad Carson ran in 2004.

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I'm sorry, but I have to ask again since it's been several months: is there any new prospects of a C4E scenario editor? GOD I hope so because I am really looking forward to it. As I said, I use P4E's editor as a mock election tool in online gaming and whatnot. It would be SO great to be able to do it with C4E, so I'd really like to know if and when I might be able to expect that maybe?

Thanks!

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First we're finishing PM4E Australia 2010. After that, we'll look at what to work on next.

Sincerely,

Anthony Burgoyne

Lead Game Designer

http://www.TheorySpark.com

Games that spark the political imagination!

I'm sorry, but I have to ask again since it's been several months: is there any new prospects of a C4E scenario editor? GOD I hope so because I am really looking forward to it. As I said, I use P4E's editor as a mock election tool in online gaming and whatnot. It would be SO great to be able to do it with C4E, so I'd really like to know if and when I might be able to expect that maybe?

Thanks!

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Hunkering down to compare Housie polls, now...

(Note: These are straight polls, and most of these races have only one poll on them. Nothing I can do to account for any type of bias, so putting a margin of error in there may be a good idea except for the ones I mark that have an RCP average.)

CA-47: Loretta Sanchez is ahead of Van Tran by 2%; not 27%

CA-11: David Harmer (not Brad Goehring) is the Republican candidate; and he is 1% ahead (not 4%)

CA-44: Bill Hedrick is 3% ahead of Ken Calvert; not 14%

OR-5: Kurt Schrader is 8% ahead of Scott Bruun; not 9%.

WA-3: Jaime Herrera is 13% ahead of Dennis Heck; not 1% behind.

WA-2: John Kostler is 4% ahead of Rick Larsen; not 6% behind.

WA-8: Dave Reichert is 13% ahead of Suzan DelBene; not 17%.

NV-3: Joe Heck is 3% ahead of Dina Titus; not 1% behind.

AZ-1: Paul Gozar is 6% ahead of Ann Kirkpatrick; not 3%.

AZ-5: Dave Schweikert is 6% ahead of Harry Mitchell; not 22%.

AZ-8: Jesse Kelly (not Jonathan Paton) is the Republican candidate; and the race is a tossup.

NM-3: Tom Mullins (not Adam Kokesh) is the Republican candidate; and he is 6% behind (not 20%).

NM-1: Martin Heinrich is 2.3% ahead of Jon Barela; not 4%. (Has RCP average)

NM-2: Harry Teague is 3% ahead of Steve Pearce; not 4%.

CO-4: Cory Gardner is 11% ahead of Betsy Markey; not 4% behind.

CO-3: Scott Tipton is 8% ahead of John Salazar; not 6% behind.

CO-8: Ryan Frazier is 1% ahead of Ed Perlmutter; not 8% behind.

ND-AL: Rick Berg is 9% ahead of Earl Pomeroy; not 6% behind.

SD-AL: Kristi Noem (not Blake Curd) is the Republican candidate; and she is 2% behind (not 16%).

OK-2: Charles Thompson (not Howard Houchen) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data. (IMO Boren should come down a tad; he doesn't appear too popular.)

TX-24: Perhaps a typo; but the Republican candidate is "Quico" Canseco, not "Francisco" Canseco.

TX-27: Similar to TX-24; the Republican candidate is "Blake" Farenthold, not "Randolph" Farenthold.

MN-6: Michele Bachmann is 9% ahead of Tarryl Clark; not 14%.

MN-1: Randy Demmer (not Allen Quist) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

IA-2: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (not Rob Gettemy) is the Republican candidate; she is 8% behind (not 2%)

IA-3: Brad Zaun (not Jim Gibbons) is the Republican candidate; he is about 1% behind (not 1% ahead).

MO-3: Russ Carnahan is 16% ahead of Ed Martin; not 18%.

MO-4: Ike Skelton is 3% ahead of Vickie Hartzler; not 13%.

AR-1: Rick Crawford is 16% ahead of Chad Causey; not 3% behind.

AR-4: Mike Ross is 18% ahead of Beth Ann Rankin; not 3%.

AR-2: Joyce Elliot (not Robbie Wills) is the Democratic candidate; she is 17% behind (not 3% ahead).

AL-5: Mo Brooks (not Parker Griffith) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

AL-3: Jake Segrest (not Joshua Segall) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

AL-7: Don Chamberlain (not Michele Waller) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

FL-8: Daniel Webster (not Bruce O'Donohughe) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data (but leans GOP according to RCP).

FL-24: Sandy Adams (not Craig Miller) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data (but leans GOP according to RCP).

FL-2: Steve Southerland (not William Southerland II) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data (but is a tossup according to RCP).

FL-25: Tom Garcia (not Luis Rivera) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

FL-21: Mario Diaz-Balart is unopposed in the general election.

FL-6: Cliff Stearns is unopposed in the general election.

FL-16: Jim Horn (not Cris Craft) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

FL-3: Mike Yost (not Dean Black) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

FL-9: Anita de Palma (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

FL-17: Frederica Wilson (not Rudolph Moise) is the Democratic candidate; Wilson is unopposed.

FL-18: Rolando Banciella (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

FL-19: Joe Budd (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

GA-8: Austin Scott (not Angela Hicks) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data (but is a tossup according to RCP).

GA-12: Ray McKinney (not Carl Smith) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

GA-10: Russell Edwards (not Sandy Untermeyer) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

GA-9: Tom Graves (not Lee Hawkins) is the Republican candidate; Graves is unopposed. (Note: Graves is the incumbent now.)

GA-3: Frank Saunders (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

GA-1: Oscar Harris II (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

GA-5: John Lewis (not Samuel Fenn Little Jr.) is the Democratic candidate; consequently, Fenn Little is the Republican candidate; and the race has no polling data.

GA-7: Doug Heckman (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; Rob Woodall (not Donald Balfour II) is the Republican candidate; and the race has no polling data.

SC-5: "Mick" Mulvaney is the Republican candidate; not "John" Mulvaney.

SC-1: Ben Frazier (not Robert Burton) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

SC-3: Jeff Duncan (not Rex Rice) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

SC-4: Paul Corden (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

NC-8: Harold Johnson (not Tim D'Annunzio) is the Republican candidate; Johnson is 14% behind (not 3%)

NC-4: William Lawson (not Frank Roche) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data (but leans Dem according to RCP).

NC-11: Jeff Miller is 1% behind Heath Shuler; not 8%.

NC-13: Bill Randall (not Ralph Reeves III) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

NC-2: Renee Ellmers is 1% ahead of Bob Etheridge; not 17% behind.

NC-12: Greg Dority (not Paul Johnson) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

NC-10: Jeff Gregory (not Anne Fischer) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

NC-6: Sam Turner (not James Taylor) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

It's late so I'm stopping here; but I will pick back up again tomorrow. I will finish updating the states I didn't do and then I will go back through, because I didn't check the candidates in each race until I got to Florida.

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TN-4: Scott "DesJarlais"; the "J" should be capitalized.

TN-8: Has no polling data; but RCP says it leans GOP, not Dem.

TN-6: Brett Carter (not George Erdel) is the Democratic candidate; Diane Black (not Jim Tracy) is the Republican candidate; and the race has no polling data. (Likely R)

TN-3: John Wolfe (not Paula Flowers) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

TN-2: Dave Hancock (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

TN-1: Mike Clark (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling.

KY-3: Todd Lally (not Jeffrey Reetz) is the Republican candidate; and he is 2% behind (not 1%).

KY-6: Ben Chandler is 14% ahead of Andy Barr; not 11%.

VA-5: Robert Hurt is 26% ahead of Tom Perriello; not 4%.

WV-1: David McKinley (not Sarah Minear) is the Republican candidate; the race is listed as a pure tossup by about every pollster.

WV-3: Spike Maynard (not Conrad Lucas) is the Republican candidate; and he is behind 16% (not 15%)

WV-2: IDK is this was deliberate, but you took out the maiden names of both candidates; the Dem is "Virginia Lynch Graf" and the GOP is "Shelley Moore Capito".

IN-8: No polling data, but pollsters place it as "Leans GOP", not "Leans Dem".

IN-9: Like IN-8; no polling data, but every pollster says it's a pure tossup.

IN-7: Marvin Scott (not Carlos May) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

IN-3: Incumbent Mark Souder (not unknown) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

IN-2: All pollsters say it "Leans Dem", not warranting an 18% lead, although there is no formal polling data.

IN-4: David Sanders (not Brandt Hershman) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data. (Note: Hershman was in the Republican primary.)

IN-1: Mark Leyva (not Peter Lindemulder) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

IN-6: Barry Welsh (not George Holland) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

IN-5: Tim Crawford (not Nasser Hanna) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no polling data.

IL-10: Dan Seals is 3% ahead of Bob Dold; not 4%.

IL-14: Randy Hultgren is 7% ahead of Bill Foster; not 4% behind.

IL-11: Adam Kinzinger is 20% ahead of Debbie Halvorson; not 19% behind.

IL-17: Bobby Schilling is 3% ahead of Phil Hare; not 40% behind.

WI-7: Sean Duffy is 9% ahead of Julie Lassa; not 3%.

WI-8: No formal polling data, but pollsters say the race is a tossup/leans Dem; not leans GOP.

MI-7: Tim Walberg is 10% ahead of Mark Schauer; not 1%.

MI-1: Dan Benishek is 16% ahead of Gary McDowell; not 5% behind.

MI-5: John Kupiek (not Rick Wilson) is the Republican candidate; the race has no polling data.

MI-9: Pollsters say it leans Dem; not leans GOP.

MI-8: Mike Rogers is unopposed in the general election.

MI-12: Don Volaric (not Mickey Switalski) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data. (Note: Switalski was in the Democratic primary.)

MI-2: Bill Huizenga (not Allen Riemersma) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

MI-4: Jerry Campbell (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

MI-10: Henry Yanez (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

MI-13: Hansen Clarke (not Carolyn Cheeks-Kilpatrick) is the Democratic candidate; John Hauler (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; and the race has no formal polling data.

MI-14: Incumbent John Conyers (not Pauline Montie) is the Democratic candidate; Montie lost the *Republican* primary to Don Ukrainec, who is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

MI-6: Don Cooney (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

OH-1: Steve Chabot is about 6% ahead of Steve Driehaus; not 1%.

OH-10: Appears to be safe Dem because there really is no input from the pollsters; definitely not as low as Kucinich +2%.

OH-16: Jim Renacci is 14% ahead of John Boccieri; not 3% behind.

OH-15: Steve Stivers is 5% ahead of Mary Jo Kilroy; not 4%.

OH-13: Betty Sutton is 2% ahead of Tom Ganley; not 11%.

OH-2: Surya Yalamanchili (not David Krikorian) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

OH-14: Bill O'Neil (not Dale Blanchard) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

OH-3: Mark "MacNealy"; the "N" should be capitalized.

OH-7: Bill Conner (not James Barton) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

OH-17: Jim Graham (not Murrell Henderson) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

PA-4: Pollsters say the seat "Leans Dem" not "Leans GOP".

PA-10: Tom Marino is 15% ahead of Chris Carney; not 3%.

PA-12: Tim Burns is 4% ahead of Mark Critz; not 8% behind.

PA-11: Lou Barletta is 11% ahead of Paul Kanjorski; not 9%.

PA-3: Mike Kelly is 14% ahead of Kathy Dahlkemper; not 3%.

PA-6: Manan Trivedi (not Doug Pike) is the Democratic candidate; and the race has no formal polling data.

NJ-9: Michael Agosta (not John Aslanian) is the Republican candidate; and the race has no formal polling data.

NJ-10: Note: A typo makes this seat say "NJ-1"; so there is actually two NJ-1's in the list.

NJ-8: Roland Straten (not Blase Billack) is the Republican candidate; and the race has no formal polling data.

NJ-1: Dale Glading (not Fernando Powers) is the Republican candidate; and the race has no formal polling data.

NJ-11: Douglas Herbert (not James Kelly) is the Democratic candidate; and the race has no formal polling data.

VT-AL: Paul Beaudry (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; and the race has no formal polling data.

CT-4: Jim Himes is 4% ahead of Dan Debicella; not 2% behind.

CT-5: Sam Caligiuri (not Mark Greenburg) is the Republican candidate; and the race has no formal polling data.

CT-2: Janet Peckinpaugh (not Matthew Daly) is the Republican candidate; and the race has no formal polling data.

CT-1: Ann Brickley (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; and the race has no formal polling data.

ME-1: Dean Scontras (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; and Scontras is 9% behind.

ME-2: Mike Michaud is 7% ahead of Jason Levesque, not 15%.

CA-23: Tom Watson (not John Davidson) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-53: Michael Crimmins (not Mari Fink) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-27: Mark Reed (not Navraj Singh) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-19: Jeff Denham (not incumbent George Radonovich) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-42: Michael Williamson (not Lee McGroarty) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-16: Zoe Lofgren is unopposed in the general election.

CA-15: Scott Kirkland (not Don Barich) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-13: Forest Baker (not Luis Garcia) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-5: Paul Smith (not Erik Smitt) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-33: James Andion (not David C. Crowley) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-8: John Dennis (not Dana Walsh) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-9: Gerald Hashimoto (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-37: Star Parker (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-38: Robert Vaughn (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-10: Gary Clift (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-40: Christina Avalos (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-25: Jackie Conaway (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-17: Jeff Taylor (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-45: Scott Folkens (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-7: Rick Tubbs (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-12: Mike Moloney (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-1: Loren Hanks (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-14: Dave Chapman (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data. (Note: There is no "C" in "Eshoo".)

CA-31: Stephen Smith (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-32: Ed Schmerling (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-34: David Miller (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-52: Ray Lutz (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CA-35: Bruce Brown (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

Posting this now so I don't lose it all! LOL

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OR-3: Delia Lopez (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

WA-9: Dick Muri (not James Postma) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

WA-6: Doug Cloud (not Jesse Young) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

NV-2: Nancy Price (not Cynthia Trigg) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

NV-1: Kenneth Wegner (not Craig O. Lake) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

UT-2: Morgan Philpot (not R.Neil Walter) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

UT-1: Morgan Bowen (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

NM-3: Tom Mullins (not Adam Kokesh) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CO-2: Stephen Bailey (not Bob Brancato) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CO-1: Mike Fallon (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

CO-5: Kevin Bradley (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

WY-AL: David Wednt (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

KS-2: Cheryl Hudspeth (not Laura Kelly) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

OK-5: Bill Coyle (not Michael Thompson) is the Democratic candidate; James Lankford (not Kevin Calvey) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

OK-1: John Sullivan is unopposed in the general election.

OK-4: Typo alert; this race is also listed as "OK-1". This is the race where Tom Cole is unopposed.

OK-3: Frankie Robbins (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling data.

TX: WOW! 32 districts and every one of them is right! Nice job! :)

LA-4: David Melville (not Steven Gavi) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling.

LA-1: Myron Katz (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling.

LA-6: Merritt McDonald (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling.

MO-1: Robyn Hamlin (not Fred Sauer) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling.

MO-6: Clint Hylton (not Ted Rights) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling.

MO-7: Scott Eckersley (not Darrell Lee Moore) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling.

MN-5: Teresa Collett (not Bradford Lee) is the Republican candidate; the race has no formal polling.

MN-3: Jim Meffert (not Maureen Hackett) is the Democratic candidate; the race has no formal polling.

The following have to be updated after their primaries are over:

Wisconsin

Hawaii

Maryland

Delaware

New York

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

New Hampshire

Good luck!

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Not in the mood to argue about polling firms, -- I've done plenty of it before, but that's a P not a D.

Also, RCP and Rasmussen both have Conservative links.

An average of all major polls would be the best.

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The RCP gets it average out of several polls.

Rasmussen, PPP, CNN, USSurvey.

Whatever ...

I understand this, and wasn't saying they shouldn't be used, -- simply saying that all polling organizations should be taken into account independently.

The RCP does indeed use an aggregate but that aggregate is made using their own formula, -- not just simply the average of all other polls. Hence the claims that they were biased for McCain during the election. And their conservative-leaning columns section and owners doesn't help.

Like I said, Theoryspark should use their own judgment and take into account more than a single source.

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RCP, indeed, does simply average the other polls.

Take Georgia Governor polls - Deal vs. Barnes

Three separate pollsters since 8/11: Rasmussen said Deal +9%; Insider Advantage said Deal +4; and SurveyUSA said Deal +11. Anyone remember how to calculate an average? Add the numbers up and then divide by how many numbers there were. 9 + 4 + 11 = 24. 24 / 3 = 8. Guess what! 8 is the RCP average, just as it's the straight average! They didn't skew it at all. Do it with any poll you like; the math adds up.

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Alrighty; fresh juicy primaries hot off the presses!

Wisconsin Senate: Ron Johnson is the Republican candidate.

Delaware Senate: Christine O'Donnell is the Republican candidate.

Maryland Senate: Eric Wargotz is leading big; I think it's safe to say that he has won by now.

New York Senate (vs. Schumer): Jay Townsend appears to have won the Republican nomination.

New York Senate (cs. Gillibrand): Close race between DioGuardi and Malpass...

New Hampshire Senate: Ovide Lamontagne leads... still not safe yet...

Posting this now with the intention to edit with updates, assuming someone doesn't beat me. :P

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Ayotte is coming back from the dead. O'Donnell will probably prove to be trailing big (538 projects her losing 52-45; I suspect that today's PPP poll will show a bigger margin), and there's some evidence that either Ayotte has fallen back a bit in the general or Lamontagne would've been growing on the NH electorate (again, a teased PPP poll coming later today).

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New Hampshire still hasn't been called; but Ovide trails by almost exactly 1,000 points. I suggest not even touching O'Donnell until she actually gets some real polling data because it's likely that her polls will be wildly skewed in both directions before it eventually evens out.

DioGuardi and Townsend have won officially; as has Wargotz in Maryland. Pretty much just waiting on NH now...

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SENATE

Hawaii: Cam Cavasso is the Republican candidate.

Maryland: Eric Wargotz is the Republican candidate.

New York (Schumer): Jay Townsend is the Republican candidate.

New York (Gillibrand): Joe DioGuardi is the Republican candidate.

New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte is the Republican candidate.

Delaware: Christine O'Donnell is the Republican candidate.

Wisconsin: Ron Johnson is the Republican candidate.

HOUSE

WI-1: John Heckenlively (not Paulette Garin) is the Democratic candidate.

WI-6: Joe Kallas (not without challenger) is the Democratic candidate.

MD-3: Jim Wilhelm (not Kevin Carney) is the Republican candidate.

MD-6: Andrew Duck (not Casey Clark) is the Democratic candidate.

MD-5: Charles Loller (not Collins Bailey) is the Republican candidate.

MD-8: Mike Phillips (not Christine Thron) is the Republican candidate.

MD-7: Frank Mirable (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate.

MD-4: Robert Broadus (not without challenger) is the Republican candidate.

Will come back to finish

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