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Congress Forever 2010 Version Info

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Wonderful! Sorry, I have been really busy and I haven't had a chance to finish. But I can give you Senate polling numbers for now... I'm throwing the exact percentage, so you can round up or round down as you will.

California: Boxer +5.5%

Nevada: Reid +0.5%

Colorado: Buck +2.4%

Florida: Rubio +9.8%

New York (Gillibrand): Gillibrand +5.6%

Kentucky: Paul +8.4%

West Virginia: Manchin +2.0%

Pennsylvania: Toomey +6.8%

Illinois: Kirk +1.0%

Washington: Murray +4.0%

Wisconsin: Johnson +8.0%

New Hampshire: Ayotte +6.4%

Connecticut: Blumenthal +7.5%

Missouri: Blunt +6.0%

Ohio: Portman +12.2%

Delaware: Coons +15.7%

North Carolina: Burr +13.0%

Louisiana: Vitter +15.3%

Iowa: Grassley +18.0%

Georgia: Isakson +18.3%

Arizona: McCain +17.4%

New York (Schumer): +19.6%

Arkansas: Boozman +24.0%

Alaska (Add Lisa Murkowski as Independent?): Miller +15.0% (42R-27I-25D%)

Oregon: Wyden +16.0%

Indiana: Coats +16.0%

Oklahoma: Coburn +43.0%

Vermont: Leahy +35.0%

Utah: Lee +27.0%

North Dakota: Hoeven +44.0%

South Dakota: Thune Unopposed

Hawaii: Inouye +48.0%

Idaho: Crapo +44.0%

Maryland: Mikulski +16.0%

Kansas: Moran +42.0%

Alabama: Shelby +32.0%

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TX: WOW! 32 districts and every one of them is right! Nice job! :)

Actually, I'd disagree. It looks like TX-9 (Al Green vs. Steve Mueller) is tilted Republican when it's a Dem stronghold. DE-AL, AZ-05, ME-01, and ID-01, among others, have similar pro-GOP biases, while others (SD-AL and ND-AL) are tilted Dem.

I believe other posts in this thread point to where the percentages are wrong. But I only just noticed TX-9, and as it's not a competitive race (or even a race-to-watch) like the others I mentioned, I figured I should point it out.

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No, thank you for doing so.

Mostly what I meant there was that all of the candidates were perfectly correct. Once you get past the few TX races that are close, the rest generally don't have polling. So, I was checking the candidates by that time and they were all correct, which was definitely a phenomenon since most of the states had several changes. This is nothing against admin; they hadn't been checked in a long time and candidates and races changed. I just basically went to Politico and checked the winning candidates.

As for polling data, I was pretty much looking only at straight polls, and I never checked any races against the CPVI. Of those that you mentioned, Ken, AZ-05, ME-01, and ID-01 all had polling data that said the GOP is close. Granted, many should be changed. I just haven't had the time to sit and post all of the averages again; however, if you comb through the posts, I may have listed some polling data for those races that you mention.

I don't have the game open so I cannot check TX-09 but I assume that you are right, and that it should be farther to the left. Since there is no polling data for it, using the CPVI is perhaps prudent.

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There's been some further odd goings-on in Delaware and Alaska. Castle and Murkowski have both decided to run as write-in candidates....and a recently poll shows Murkowski ahead of Miller and McAdams in Alaska.

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There's been some further odd goings-on in Delaware and Alaska. Castle and Murkowski have both decided to run as write-in candidates....and a recently poll shows Murkowski ahead of Miller and McAdams in Alaska.

Uhm ...

actually not.

Castle has ruled out a write-in bid, as it would only boost O'Donnell and Murkowski is BEHIND Miller.

By a mere two points, if I remember correctly, but she is behind.

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Uhm ...

actually not.

Castle has ruled out a write-in bid, as it would only boost O'Donnell and Murkowski is BEHIND Miller.

By a mere two points, if I remember correctly, but she is behind.

This poll has her ahead by 10:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/CraciunResearchPollResults_092910.pdf

And my previous post was before Castle ruled out a write-in campaign.

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We use RealClearPolitics.com for the most part, a decision that was pretty much decided in this thread. Granted, the admin can do what he wants, but generally, we track RCP and use the RCP average. If RCP doesn't use them then they may not be a credible pollster.

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Uhm ... why is O'Donnell still the frontrunner in Delaware?

Every poll suggests that she'll get crushed by Castle.

You mean that she'll get crushed by Coons right? The republican Primaries have been over for a while now

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You mean that she'll get crushed by Coons right? The republican Primaries have been over for a while now

Gah, you're right. Sorry.

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Because the game starts Sep. 1. If you have polling data suggesting she was trailing at that point, please point to it.

Anthony Burgoyne

Lead Game Designer

http://www.TheorySpark.com

Games that spark the political imagination!

Uhm ... why is O'Donnell still the frontrunner in Delaware?

Every poll suggests that she'll get crushed by Castle.

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Because the game starts Sep. 1. If you have polling data suggesting she was trailing at that point, please point to it.

Anthony Burgoyne

Lead Game Designer

http://www.TheorySpark.com

Games that spark the political imagination!

I can do that- a September 2nd poll shows Coons ahead by 11. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/delaware/toplines/toplines_delaware_senate_september_2_2010

Also, Delaware's poll numbers in the U.S. House seem weird too. I haven't seen a single poll where Carney isn't leading, yet he starts down 22 in C4E. Granted, it's gotta be hard to get every percentage just right in every district, but that just seems way too far off.

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To see what would happen, I turned the Democrats off completely and played as the Republicans. I clicked on GA and everything was fine, but when I clicked on California, I got an error message that wouldn't go away and I had to shut down the game.

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Noted, thanks,

Anthony Burgoyne

Lead Game Designer

http://www.TheorySpark.com

Games that spark the political imagination!

To see what would happen, I turned the Democrats off completely and played as the Republicans. I clicked on GA and everything was fine, but when I clicked on California, I got an error message that wouldn't go away and I had to shut down the game.

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