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Republic of Ireland Dail Elections

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Here is a list of things that are relevant to the scenario files. I took these from my work on this scenario when I tried it.

- Ireland has similar radio/TV advertising rules to the UK. So there are no radio/TV campaigns in the American sense, but there are party political broadcasts.

- Ireland has no motto.

- Your parties should be something like:

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Green

Sinn Féin

Progressive Democrats

Socialist

Independent

- Endorsements aren't very common, but try the following:

Irish Independent: centre, all issues, lean FF

Evening Herald: centre, all issues, open

Sunday Tribune: centre-left, all issues, lean Labour

Sunday Business Post: centre-right, all issues, open

- Some events:

2007-4-27: Bertie Ahern cash allegations re-surface, increase Corruption issue profile

2007-4-28: Election begins

2007-5-4: Progressive Democrats leader says they might leave the FF-PD coalition, increase Corruption issue profile

2007-5-5: PD leader backs down, hit the party HARD on some issue, like -3 on right-wing Healthcare or something

2007-5-7: NI Assembly re-opens, increase Northern Ireland issue profile

2007-5-14: Sinn Féin flip-flops on income and corporation tax policies, hit them hard.

2007-5-17: The debate. RL result was a strong victory for Ahern over Kenny, so strong that it seems to have caused a >5% swing back to FF.

2007-5-24: Election Day

Other things happened too, but those events created the election narrative.

- Regional centres: Ireland doesn't have an easy left-right cleavage, but this is a good approximation:

Economic: North Dublin - Rural areas - Urban areas - South Dublin

Social: South Dublin - North Dublin - Urban areas - Rural areas

- Inverviewers:

Prime Time 3 2

Question And Answers 2 2

Morning Ireland 3 3

Ireland AM 1 1

Polls Apart 1 2

RTÉ Six One News 3 2

- Some suggested issues:

Agriculture and Fishing, Alcohol, Budget Surplus, Business and Industry, Children's Rights, Civil Unions, Corruption, Crime, Education, Environment, Foreign Policy, Healthcare, Income Tax, Northern Ireland, Stamp Duty

- Initial economy: 4

One more detail. Here are hints for the party issue positions.

Fianna Fáil: Economic Centre-Right, Social Centre-Right

Fine Gael: Economic Centre, Social Centre

Labour: Economic Centre-Left, Social Centre-Left

Green: Economic Centre-Left, Social Centre-Left

Sinn Féin: Economic Left, Social Centre

Progressive Democrats: Economic Right, Social Centre

Socialist: Economic Left, Social Left

Independent: Economic Centre-Left, Social Centre-Right

These should be put into context. In 2007, Economic Centre-Left meant "only promised a 2% cut to the standard rate of income tax". The Green Party cared far more about the environment than the other parties, as you may have guessed. No-one cared about immigration in 2007; Social issues were more like children's rights, gay marriage/civil partnerships, abortion and crime. We often say that Irish politics doesn't have a left-right divide, but in reality we just don't have a strong socialist party like other European countries do. Fine Gael promised things like universal health insurance and more teachers at the last election, while Fianna Fáil promised tax cuts and bigger state pensions, so it's clear that one is more conventionally to the left than the other.

Hey guys, I'm going to modify the 2002 and 2007 Dáil elections for formal submission to 80soft. Ed Gaffney has posted some excellent ideas- so feel to add any.

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issues in 2007

Abortion

Alcohol

Budget Surplus

Children's Rights

Civil Unions

Corruption

Education

Environment

Europe

Foreign Policy

Healthcare

Income Tax

Jobs

Law and Order

Northern Ireland

Rural Issues

Transport

UK Relations

issues in 2002

Abortion

Childcare

Corruption

Drugs

Economy

Education

Environment

Europe

Healthcare

Immigration

Industrial Policy

Language

Tax and Budget

Terrorism

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Hey guys, I'm going to modify the 2002 and 2007 Dáil elections for formal submission to 80soft. Ed Gaffney has posted some excellent ideas- so feel to add any.

GOPPy, I am wondering if the reason the original 2 scenarios did not see the light of day had anything to do with the fact that they were produced on the C4E format to work under the German electoral system.

As I have mentioned in another thread, the Dail is elected by STV and therefore Irish scenarios may work better if created in the PM4E format which allows for an AV system as used in Australia.

If you agree, then the originally 'simulated' voting data should be replaced by the actual voting data.

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The problem with PMF Australia is that it only allows for 4 parties max and Ireland has 6 parties with seats in the Dail (well now 5 with the PD's folding).

That being said, I could use suggestions and some specific issue positions with regard to the new issues in 2007.

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The problem with PMF Australia is that it only allows for 4 parties max and Ireland has 6 parties with seats in the Dail (well now 5 with the PD's folding).

I don't have PMF Australia but the PM4E UK version has an AV facility that can be set as on (for Oz) or off (for FPTP). The UK version has no maximum number of parties.

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I don't have PMF Australia but the PM4E UK version has an AV facility that can be set as on (for Oz) or off (for FPTP). The UK version has no maximum number of parties.

Really? I did not know that worked...

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Really? I did not know that worked...

Yes. I have tried designing canadian historical scenarios with it (Alberta, BC) and occasionally change the setting to 'on' with FPTP scenarios to make life more interesting.

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Yes. I have tried designing canadian historical scenarios with it (Alberta, BC) and occasionally change the setting to 'on' with FPTP scenarios to make life more interesting.

Yes, it's possible to have the Australian system in any PM4E game (Canada, UK, Alberta, BC).

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Gaffney and Displayname,

What issues should be added for 2002?

Also could you guys give some detailed issue positions for 2007?

Being only 1/16th Irish and having never gone there, I can't offer any insight.

Apart from Wikipedia, http://electionsireland.org gives accurate data but nothing much on issues other than referenda. 'Google Books' may be worth a look.

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(alcohol, budget surplus, foreign policy, Rural Issues, transport) for 2007 as well as for 2002?

Alcohol

Nordic-style government monopoly to ensure responsible drinking.

Encourage a more moderate, European-style drinking culture. (Lab, PD, Green)

Alcohol is a perfectly acceptable part of Irish society. (FF, SF)

Alcohol is abused in Ireland. Deny drunks emergency medical treatment. (FG)

Alcohol is a threat to Irish society. Restrict access to it.

Budget surplus

Large expansion of public services, limit tax cuts. (SF)

Prioritise public services. (Lab, Green)

Balance tax cuts and public services. (FG)

Prioritise tax cuts. (FF)

Large tax cuts, limit spending growth. (PD)

Foreign policy

Yes to neutrality, no to American imperialism! (SF)

No US warplanes in Shannon Airport. (Lab, Green)

Neutrality is compatible with US Air Force landing rights. (FF, PD)

Evolve foreign policy beyond neutrality. Consider full NATO membership. (FG)

Give America our full support in the War on Terror!

Rural issues

Prioritise the urban working class.

National intervention to make rural planning laws more restrictive. (Lab, Green)

More careful planning, but ensure those with connections can build. (FG, PD, SF)

Planning is fine. Provide night transport from rural pubs to homes. (FF)

Large redistribution of resources from Dublin to rural areas.

Transport

Focus much more investment on public transport, less on roads. (Green)

Improve public transport through higher investment. (Lab, SF)

Improve transport through investment, like the National Development Plan. (FG)

Expand the private sector's role in urban public transport. (FF)

Privatise and deregulate buses, trains and airports. (PD)

EDIT: Changed Alcohol SF to Centre

Edited by EGaffney

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Income Tax

Income tax should be returned to 1980s levels. (SF)

Reduce the standard income tax rate, but introduce wealth tax. (Lab, Green)

Reduce the standard income tax rate. (FF, FG)

Reduce standard and higher income tax rates. (PD)

Reduce income tax significantly, fund by cutting spending.

"Jobs" was not an election issue in 2007. Unemployment was about 4%. Similarly inflation was not an issue due to ECB control of our monetary policy. But "competitiveness" (high prices of business expenditures like wages, energy and insurance) was indeed an issue. Here are some ideas about a Competitiveness, Business or Industry issue.

Industry needs to be better regulated. Increase corporation tax. (Green, SF)

Financial help for businesses that hire more workers. Regulate input prices better. (Lab)

Help individuals and businesses to find low prices. Reduce bureaucracy. (FG)

Moderate wage growth. Reduce employers' contribution to the public insurance fund. (FF)

Supply-side reform. Less regulation and taxes for business to reduce costs. (PD)

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Europe issue should be about Nice Treaty. I can't remember much about the election, it was dull/a foregone conclusion. Some big issues that Fine Gael messed up:

1. Privatisation - they proposed to compensate people who bought shares in the privatised telecom for their losses due to the share price at flotation being higher than long-run value. People saw this as a pretty pathetic populist trick, even for Ireland.

2. Taxi licences - they proposed to compensate taxi drivers, who had been a tightly-restricted profession, for the lost value of their "licences" to trade after the sector was deregulated. This was after a year of taxi driver protests about deregulation in which the vast majority of the public did not take their side (because now you can actually get a taxi).

3. Michael Noonan was uncharismatic and inexperienced as leader, and dealt badly when confronted with a blood contamination scandal that happened when he was Minister for Health.

Taken together, 1. and 2. destroyed their image as a fiscally responsible party.

Here is a Sinn Féin (left-wing) perspective on the manifestos, it's accurate as regards the issue details, as far as I can tell: http://republican-news.org/archive/2002/May02/02fffg.html

I did have a book about this election, but it's in my parents' house now.

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Children's Rights

The proposed amendment is a threat to the rights of the accused in statutory rape cases. (SF)

Support the referendum on children's rights. Reduce the age of consent to 16. (Lab, PD, Green)

Support the referendum on children's rights. Tougher child protection laws. (FF)

Support the referendum on children's rights. Use army training to instil discipline in youths. (FG)

Defend parents' rights and the family unit, not children's rights.

Just for context, the proposed referendum still hasn't happened and it isn't on the agenda. It was meant to be about introducing children's rights to the Constitution, which currently has very strong protections for the integrity of families and parents' rights, so that for example the state's ability to take kids into care is less than that in other European countries. However, that debate became conflated with a proposal to remove "honest mistake" as a defence in statutory rape cases. The law had previously been: a man is automatically guilty of a crime if he consorts with a girl under 15 years of age, and the defence that he had believed his partner to be of the age of consent cannot be used. The Supreme Court found this to be unconstitutional: the "honest mistake" defence is now permissible, but this obviously opens up a large loophole in the law that can be exploited by defendants. See http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0523/sex.html. What followed was a series of recriminations and proposals for new statutory rape laws, followed by a debate over the age of consent (17, the second-highest in Europe) and whether it ought to be lowered to 16 in line with the UK and other European countries.

It's not a nice topic to include in a game, but it was the most important "social issue" in Irish politics in the last year of the FF-PD government.

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So, in a simplistic matter, are FG and FF both center-right parties?

Also, which the most libertarian (or classical liberal) party in those elections? The Progressive Democrats?

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Do you have any specific issue positions for education and health care for 2002 (education only) and 2007?

The public services debate in Ireland rarely evolves beyond "We want more money for schools and hospitals", so here are some positions that will apply in either year.

Education

Large investment in education. Nationalise all private schools and colleges. (SF, Soc)

More funding for schools, (Lab, Green)

Reduce class sizes. Redirect resources to help the neediest pupils. (FG)

Moderate growth in education spending. Try to reduce class sizes. (FF, PD)

Education is best provided by the private sector. End free university fees.

Health care (2007)

Healthcare should be a solely public good. No private hospitals. (SF, Soc)

More doctors and nurses, higher pay. End tax breaks for private healthcare. (FG, Lab, Green)

More funding for public healthcare, encourage more private healthcare. (FF)

Take a harder stance in public pay negotiations. Build private hospitals on public land. (PD)

Expand private healthcare and reduce the public sector's role.

So, in a simplistic matter, are FG and FF both center-right parties?

Also, which the most libertarian (or classical liberal) party in those elections? The Progressive Democrats?

Yes and yes. In practice, FF and FG are indistinguishable; the junior coalition partner normally determines the ideology of the government. The classical liberal tendency in Irish politics is now homeless; many of my former comrades have joined Fine Gael, but they are more like Christian democrats than liberals.

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Well Fianna Fail has joined the ALDE- so they have technically become a "liberal" party.

That being said- the CL position on Education is incomplete.

Lastly, I put Ahern at CR on Abortion and Same-Sex Unions, while Kenny was CR on abortion and C on Same-Sex Unions. McDowell and O'Caolain are also C on SSM, while Rabbitte is CL on SSM and Sargent and Higgins are L. Does this sound correct?

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Well Fianna Fail has joined the ALDE- so they have technically become a "liberal" party.

That being said- the CL position on Education is incomplete.

Lastly, I put Ahern at CR on Abortion and Same-Sex Unions, while Kenny was CR on abortion and C on Same-Sex Unions. McDowell and O'Caolain are also C on SSM, while Rabbitte is CL on SSM and Sargent and Higgins are L. Does this sound correct?

Here's an article by a friend of mine explaining the FF-ALDE situation, it's just a technical arrangement with no policy implications. FF is no more a liberal party than the DPRK is democratic. http://whiggery.wordpress.com/2009/10/30/fianna-fail-irelands-new-liberal-party/

CL position: add Prioritise schools in capital investment programmes.

Most of those positions are correct except one. O'Caolain should be CL on SSM.

In actual fact, it would be best just to let me look at the position details once it's done, and I will fix anything that's needed. By the sounds of it, you have got them correct.

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I don't understand your questions, could you reword them? Maybe put Ahern as C on Law and Order, it wasn't really an issue where the government acted in a particularly tough way.

EDIT: If you mean "profiles according to issue" I'd need to see the list of all issues to judge that.

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Issues

Abortion

Alcohol

Budget Surplus

Children's Rights

Corruption

Education

Environment

Europe

Foreign Policy

Healthcare

Industrial Policy

Law and Order

Northern Ireland

Rural Issues

Same-Sex Unions

Tax Cuts

Transport

UK Relations

What issues should benefit each party? I'm thinking of putting the Tax Cuts issue as benefitting FF-PDs (I changed the FF position to CR on the issue as they backed the PD budget from what I read) along with Rural Issues and Industrial Policy.

FG-Labour obviously have a big boost from corruption and healthcare- any others?

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