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mz452

Québec 2022

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This is a scenario I am currently working on. Basically, in 2021, Québec votes for independence in a 54%-46% vote. The government in Québec was led by Liberal Premier Hervé-Louis Ballou, who resigned shortly following the vote. He was replaced by Parti Québécois leader Elisabeth Vernier. Vernier is now the first Prime Minister of the Republic of Québec. Vernier has now dissolved the government that was elected in 2017 and is calling for the first election in an independent Québec. There are 125 democratically elected seats and 375 list seats. Here are the parties and candidates:

Gouverneure générale du Québec: Gabrielle-Thérèse Chiasson

Polls:

  • Parti conservateur du Québec: 13%
  • Parti libéral du Québec: 32%
  • Parti Québécois: 35%
  • Québec solidaire: 2%
  • Parti vert du Québec: 5%
  • Independent: 3%
  • Parti marxiste-léniniste du Québec: 1%
  • Parti démocratique du Québec: 9%

Leaders:

Parti conservateur du Québec

  • Gérard Dumont
  • Éric Bonnardel
  • Judith Blackburn
  • Jean-Pierre Seidman

Parti libéral du Québec

  • Filomena Tomassi
  • Marguerite Coderre-Zarac
  • Denis Cotler
  • Lionel-Jacques Larousse

Parti Québécois

  • Elisabeth Vernier
  • Noëlla Curzi
  • Nicolas Lapointe
  • Pierre Durfour

Québec solidaire

  • Élisa Turp
  • Nathalie Émond-Toutant

Parti vert du Québec

  • Guy Laridhi

Independent

  • Silvestre Sicard

Parti marxiste-léniniste du Québec

  • Saroj Villamizar

Parti démocratique du Québec

  • Marc Mulcair
  • Suzanne Dallaire
  • Claude Brazeau

Yeah, thats about it. Vernier is unpopular now but voters don't want to return to Canada, so it makes for a tight vote. If anyone wants to help, just say so.

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By the use of "Gouverneure générale," are we to assume Quebec retained the monarchy after indepedence? :huh:

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So, this will be for C4E, right?

By the use of "Gouverneure générale," are we to assume Quebec retained the monarchy after indepedence?

Probably, that Québec will a be part of the Commonwealth like India but with a president.

I know quite a lot about politics in Québec, basically a few things to consider:

-The Liberals would never do a referendum, but they were thinking about doing one in 1991-1992 with the Bélanger-Campeau Commission.

-Probably the president will be the equivalant of the Gouverneure Générale such like in India, Iceland or Ireland, as a neutral head of state.

-The Parti Québécois will probalbly implodes themshelves after their main argument (independance) is completed. I must say that half of the péquistes are centrists and about 30% are more likely to support a left-wing party like Québec Solidaire and 20% will support a more right-wing or libertarian party.

-A conservative party will have some strong regions (Centre-du-Québec, Chaudière-Appalaches, Québec City)

For the different regions, this is the main areas for of strength for the parties (and this if you use Simon Vallée's map)

-Montréal (About 50% for the Liberals and the rest between the PQ and Québec Solidaire with about 20% each and 10% for the Parti Démocrate)

-Rive-Nord (About 30-40-15 between the Liberals, the PQ and the Conservatives)

-Rive-Sud (40-20-20 between the Liberals and the Conservatives and the PQ)

-Chaudière-Appalaches (Conservative majority)

-Québec City (40% Conservative, 30% Liberal)

-Outaouais (70% Liberal, 20% Conservative)

-Gaspésie (Liberal Majority)

-Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean (20% Liberal, 15% Conservative, 35% Péquiste, 5% QS)

-Centre-du-Québec (Conservative Majority)

-Abitibi-Témiscamingue (30% Liberal, 30% PQ, 10% Conservatives, 10% Parti Démocrate)

-Nord (40% Libéral, 40% PQ, 20% Parti Démocrate)

For the possible coalitions:

PQ/Québec Solidaire

PQ/Parti Vert

Libéral/Parti Vert

Libéral/Parti Démocratique

Québec Solidaire/Parti Vert

Libéral/Parti Conservateur

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