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  1. As you know, I posted my updated 2020 Election, which I will continue to update. Please post your feedback and suggestions for improvement here. I know, for instance, that I should update the campaign issues, and some of the potential endorsers, as well as add some candidate. Currently, I've been adding some more Events. I will probably have one event per day to make it appear like a real Trump-era news cycle. What's funny is one of my events-to-add was "Trump fires Bannon" on July 19, 2019. I've since changed that to, "Bannon's Back! Trump makes controversial Steve Bannon as new Chief of Staff!," Since I have him firing his Chief of Staff a few days before. As the establishment GOP is attacking Trump at this point, I have Trump going full populist, for the most part. If things appear worse for Trump in real life, I may make the possibility that he runs 3rd party. I'm not sure how this happens. 1) He doesn't gain the nomination. 2) He voluntarily creates his Nationalist Populists Party. 3) He gets evicted by Republicans that feel their attachment to Trump will ruin their careers or chances of a 2020 victory. I'm not sure how I would program this in a single scenario, but I will attempt to do so through events. However, I won't add this into the scenario unless Trump's approval drops below 30% in the polls, and more Republicans other than Kasich, Sasse, Collins, Murkowski, McCain, Graham, Corker, Hatch, Rubio, etc. speak out against him. You'll notice I have Jon Huntsman as a Senator. I don't expect him to accept Trump's offer as Ambassador to Russia, except maybe as a means to investigate Trump himself. I think if he does take it, he won't stay long, and he will still run for the Utah senate seat by January or February 2018. He and his family are popular in Utah, and I think he could win any primary or election for that seat rather easily.
  2. 2020 Election The likely to be impeached, but not convicted, Donald Trump goes into full campaign mode for reelection. However, unlike most incumbent presidents, Trump faces a tough primary challenges as constant inter-party foe John Kasich has been creating a campaign apparatus since 2017. Ben Sasse, another vocal critic, aims to hold Nebraska delegates from Trump, as Lindsey Graham hopes to do the same with South Carolina. Susan Collins has a chance of holding the entirety of New England from Trump. Jon Huntsman enters to hold Utah's votes. Collectively these favorite-son candidates are hoping to hold enough delegates to throw the election to John Kasich in the convention. Rand Paul, despite some approval of Trump, is hoping the field is so split that a Libertarian Republican nomination can finally win. For Democrats, supposed front-runners Joe Biden, and Elizabeth Warren have decided not to run. Bernie Sanders is hoping to increase his influence from 2016. Terry McAuliffe, who gained national attention during the Charlottesville protests, runs as a much more moderate Democratic candidate. Even more moderate, red-state Democrats Steve Bullock and John Bel Edwards enter the race. Cory Booker, who has made some inroads among progressive of late, also enters. New California governor Gavin Newsom runs as a progressive alternative to Sanders. John Delaney, the first Democratic candidate to declare is still in the race. Finally, in a shocker, Hillary Clinton has vowed revenge on Donald Trump, saying as the winner of the popular vote in 2016, that she has a right to attempt for the nomination again. The Libertarian Party and Green Party will be the major 3rd parties.
  3. The following are the start-off general election positions for Trump vs. random Democrats, according to my 2020 scenario: 1. Trump/Pence vs. Biden/Castro = Trump advantage 270 EVs to 252 EVs (16 tossup from Michigan). Biden leads with 3% in PV, and has PA and NC. 2. Trump/Pence vs. Sanders/ShBrown = Trump advantage 279 EVs to 227 EVs (32 tossups from MI, MN, NV). Sanders leads with 2% in PV, and has WI. 3.Trump/Pence vs. Warren/ShBrown = Trump advantage 266 EVs to 233 EVs (39 tossups from FL and MI). Warren leads with 1% in PV. 4. Trump/Pence vs. Booker/Sanders = Trump advantage 274 EVs to 217 EVs (47 tossups from NV, MN, MI, NC). Booker leads with 1% in the PV. 5. Trump/Pence vs. ShBrown/Sinema = Trump advantage 264 EVs to 217 EVs (57 tossups from NV, MN, MI, WI, NC). Brown lead with 3% in the PV. 6. Trump/Pence vs. Clinton/Moulton = Trump advantage 300 EVs to 217 EVs (21 tossups from NV and NC). Clinton leads with 2% in the PV. Trump has MN. 7. Trump/Pence vs. Franken/Sinema = Trump advantage 290 EVs to 227 EVs (21 tossups from NC and NV). Franken leads with 3% in the PV. In all cases, Trump leads in the EV, but loses in the PV. A lack of exciting candidates that can take WI, MI, PA, OH, NC, and FL is what's hurting Democrats, while many of the candidates maintain large support in high population states that will definitely go Blue. It should also be noted that in my scenarios, the primary season is really rough with Trump, leading to what appears to be a Democratic landslide. However, during the general election, he earns back a lot of his support (if he wins nomination, which he usually does) by spinning history/his record, attacking criticism, and making all sorts of bold promises that he may or may not intend to fulfill. Other Republicans: Kasich/Huntsman vs. Biden/Castro = Biden advantage 247 to 215 EVs (76 tossups). Biden leads with 2% PV, and controls WI and PA. Paul/Lee vs. Biden/Castro = Biden advantage 302 to 221 EVs (15 tossups). Biden leads with 4% PV, and controls MN, WI, MI, PA, and FL. Paul controls NV. Cruz/Rubio vs. Biden/Castro = Biden advantage 247 to 244 EVs (47 tossups). Biden leads with 7% PV, and controls PA and WI. In all cases, the other major Republicans lack the same support power in MI, PA, and WI, a total of 46 EVs. Additionally, Trump gets a bonus in MN and in FL (for his frequent trips to Mar-o-Lago). Also in all cases, Democrats are more popularly supported as they always win the PV. Paul, Cruz, and to a lesser degree, Trump do especially poorly in the highly populated states that generally go Blue.
  4. Here's another thing that could use your feedback -- candidate strengths! My 2020 election assumes that even Republicans are getting tired of Trump and, since Democrats are nearly as unpopular as Republicans as a whole, that Republicans challenging Trump is a realistic possibility. Trump approval rating is about 34% in this. He is facing likely impeachment (but probably not removal). Democrats have failed to excite their base, and have failed to win over reluctant Trump voters. Outside of Trump's base, Republicans hope for a change. Both primaries, and the general election as well, are tossups. Those interested in helping me with candidate strength for this scenario can use my template and make their own amendments: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY STRENGTH Tier 1 (Clear front-runner, controls nearly every state; likely 25-50% in the polls): none Tier 2 (Realistic primary victor; has a national presence that expands beyond their region; likely 15% to 25% in the polls): Fmr Sec. Hillary Clinton of NY (possibly controls NY, AR, and every state she won in the 2016 primaries) Fmr VP Joe Biden of DE (controls DE, possibly PA, and possibly every state Clinton carried in the 2016 primaries) Sen. Bernie Sanders of VT (controls VT, possibly NH, OR, WA, ND, SD, ID, AK, WI, OK, NE, KS, WY, WV) Sen. Elizabeth Warren of MA (controls MA, possibly ME, RI, CT, as well as the possible Sanders states listed above) Gov. Andrew Cuomo of NY (possibly controls NY, possibly CT, PA, NJ, with strength in IL and other states with massive cities) Sen. Al Franken of MN (controls MN, possibly ND, SD, MI, WI, IA, with strength in CA, NY) Tier 3 (Upset candidate, has the traits to build a national presence, a powerful office, and the upside of being a fresh face; likely 5% to 10% in the polls) Gov. Gavin Newsom of CA (possibly controls CA, has strength in WA, OR) Sen. Sherrod Brown of OH (controls OH, possibly MI) Sen. Kamala Harris of CA (possibly controls CA, may have some strength in states with a high African-American demographic) Sen. Cory Booker of NJ (controls NJ, may have strength in states with a large African-American population) Tier 4 (Wild Card outsider candidate, has unique traits to build a national presence, and being a fresh face; likely 5% in the polls): Fmr Starbucks CEO & billionaire Howard Schultz of WA (possibly controls WA, and with some strength in Starbucks-heavy states) CEO and billionaire Tom Steyer of CA (some strength in CA) Tier 5 (Has the qualities of the tier 3 candidates, but lacks the excitement that the tier 3 candidate or the wild card candidate can bring); like 3% to 5% in the polls): Sen. Martin Heinrich of NM (possibly controls NM) Sen. Terry McAuliffe of VA (controls VA) Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of NY (possibly controls NY, may have some strength in CT and NJ) Gov. Steve Bullock of MT (controls MT, and possibly states similar to MT) Gov. John Bel Edwards of LA (controls LA, and possibly other Southern states) Tier 6 (Has little national presence, holds a relatively weaker office, might not even win their state; likely 1% in the polls): Mayor Eric Garcetti of CA (some strength in CA) Rep. Seth Moulton of MA (some strength in MA) Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of HI (possibly controls HI) Fmr Rep. Alan Grayson of FL (some strength in FL) Rep. Julian Castro of TX (possibly controls TX, with some strength in NM, AZ) Mayor Pete Buttigieg of IN (possibly controls IN) Tier 7 (Has a little national presence, and has quality experience, but is neither a fresh face or has what it takes to be an upset candidate; likely 1% in the polls) Fmr Gov. Martin O'Malley of MD (possibly controls MD) Fmr Gov. Lincoln Chafee of RI (has strength in RI) REPUBLICAN PRIMARY STRENGTH Tier 1 (Clear front-runner, controls nearly every state; likely 25-50% in the polls): Pres. Donald Trump of NY (controls about every state, except the states in which politicians of his own party are most outspoken) Tier 2 (Realistic primary victor; has a national presence that expands beyond their region; likely 15-25% in the polls): Fmr Gov. John Kasich of OH (controls OH, has strength in every relatively liberal state) Tier 3 (Upset candidate, has the traits to build a national presence, a powerful office, and the upside of being a fresh face; likely 5-10% in the polls) Sen. Rand Paul of KY (controls KY, has strength in states that voted heavily for a Libertarian) Sen. Ted Cruz of TX (controls TX, possibly controls evangelical-heavy states outside the Midwest) Tier 4 (Wild Card outsider candidate, has unique traits to build a national presence, and being a fresh face; likely 5% in the polls): None Tier 5 (Has the qualities of the tier 3 candidates, but lacks the excitement that the tier 3 candidate or the wild card candidate can bring; likely 3 to 5% in the polls): Sen. Jon Huntsman of UT (controls UT) Sen. Susan Collins of ME (controls ME, possibly other New England states) Fmr Gov. Susana Martinez of NM (controls NM) Sen. Marco Rubio of FL (controls FL, possibly some strength in moderate-to-conservative states outside the Midwest) Sen Tom Cotton of AR (controls AR) Sen. Ben Sasse of NE (Controls NE) Tier 6 (Has little national presence, holds a relatively weaker office, might not even win their state; likely 1% in the polls): None Tier 7 (Has a little national presence, and has quality experience, but is neither a fresh face or has what it takes to be an upset candidate; likely 1% in the polls) Sen. Lindsey Graham (possibly controls SC, with some strength in AZ, thanks to John McCain)
  5. Please rank the following 10 candidates in order of whom you are most likely to support with your preferred president at the top and your least desired president at the bottom. Please use only these 10. Sen. Al Franken of MN Sen. Bernie Sanders of VT Sen. Elizabeth Warren of MA Fmr VP Joe Biden of DE Sen. Cory Booker of NJ Gov. Terry McAuliffe of VA Gov. John Kasich of OH Pres. Donald Trump of NY Sen. Rand Paul of KY Sen. Ted Cruz of TX [The above list is my ranking, btw]
  6. Here is another 2020 issue, w/ candidate positions. Let me know if I should change anything. FL: LGBT equality is a fundamental human right. [Sanders, Newsom, Buttigieg, Garcetti, Warren, Moulton] L: LGBT equality is a constitutional right. [Biden, O'Malley, Chafee, KHarris, Gabbard, Steyer, Schultz, Heinrich, Grayson, ShBrown, Booker, Gillibrand, Cuomo, Franken] CL: LGBT rights must be upheld, even if not in name. However, state level efforts should also be supported. [Paul, Collins, McAuliffe, Castro, Edwards, Bullock, HClinton] C: If the states want to pass LGBT legislation , let them. [Martinez, Huntsman] CR: Marriage is between a man and a woman to the exclusion of all others. Pro-LGBT legislation should be discouraged. [Trump, Kasich, Graham, Rubio] R: Support a constitutional ban on same-sex marriages, and work against LGBT legislation. [Cruz, Cotton, Sasse] FR: The LGBT community needs to be treated for their condition.
  7. Here's another 2020 issue, w/ candidate positions. Let me know if anything should be altered. FL: Ban all guns! L: We need gun control! Ban certain guns. Require registration/background checks. Gun control protects children. [Biden, Warren, KHarris, Newsom, Gabbard, Garcetti, Steyer, Schultz, Booker, ShBrown, HClinton, Franken, Cuomo, Moulton] CL: The right to bear arms, but only responsibly! Ban assault rifles, require registration/background checks. [Sanders, McAuliffe, O'Malley, Castro, Gillibrand] C: Gun control is a state issue. Responsible gun ownership is fine. [Huntsman, Collins, Chafee, Edwards, Bullock, Heinrich, Buttigieg] CR: We should be wary of gun control. The Second Amendment protects the right to bear arms. [Martinez, Grayson] R: Gun ownership is constitutionally protected. Protect sportsmen's rights and the Second Amendment. [Trump, Kasich, Graham, Paul, Rubio, Cotton, Sasse] FR: The Second Amendment is not negotiable! No restrictions on firearms! [Cruz]
  8. Here's another 2020 issue, along with candidate positions. Let me know if anything should be amended. FL: No compromise with conservatives; gridlock preferable to compromise. [Warren] L: Work with Republicans when they are willing to work on Progressive issues [Sanders, O'Malley, Gabbard, Garcetti, ShBrown, Grayson, Franken, Newsom, Moulton] CL: Work with Republicans to fulfill our agenda [McAuliffe, Castro, KHarris, Booker, Gillibrand, HClinton, Buttigieg, Cuomo] C: We must work together on everything for the American people; sometimes we have to let the opposition win [Huntsman, Biden, Chafee, Edwards, Bullock, Steyer, Heinrich, Schultz] CR: Work with Democrats to fulfill our agenda [Kasich, Graham, Martinez, Sasse, Collins] R: Work with Democrats only if they are willing to work on conservative issues [Trump, Paul, Rubio, Cotton] FR: Gridlock is preferred to any compromise with liberals or progressives. [Cruz]
  9. Here's another 2020 issue, along with candidate stances. Let me know if anything should be changed. FL: Full reproductive rights for women! Only appoint pro-choice judges to Supreme Court and extend abortion rights! [Sanders, Warren] L: Keep abortion as it is presently. Safe, legal, and rare. Keep partial-birth abortion legal. Increase funding to Planned Parenthood. [O'Malley, KHarris, Gabbard, Garcetti, Steyer, Gillibrand, ShBrown, Schultz, Grayson, HClinton, Franken, Newsom, Cuomo, Moulton] CL: Protect responsible choice. Ban partial-birth abortions except in the case of life of the mother. Increase funding to Planned Parenthood. [Biden, McAuliffe, Chafee, Castro, Bullock, Booker, Heinrich, Buttigieg] C: Abortion is not an issue for government intrusion. Oppose government control over abortion, but keep Planned Parenthood. Leave abortion policy to the states. [Collins, Edwards] CR: Some restrictions on abortion. Allow abortions in cases of rape, incest, or life of the mother. Ban partial birth abortions. Defund Planned Parenthood. [Trump, Kasich, Graham, Martinez, Huntsman] R: Only allow abortion in cases where the mother's life is at risk. Ban partial-birth abortion. Defund Planned Parenthood. [Paul, Cruz, Rubio, Cotton, Sasse] FR: Abortion is murder! Total ban on abortions including rape and incest. Planned Parenthood should be shut down completely.
  10. Here's another issue with candidate position. Let me know if I should amend anything: FL: Working Americans need a single-payer universal healthcare! Healthcare is a right! [Sanders, Warren, Grayson, Gabbard] L: We defend and expand upon Obamacare! [Biden, HClinton, O'Malley, KHarris, Booker, Castro, Schultz, Garcetti, Newsom, Steyer, ShBrown, Gillibrand, Cuomo, Franken, Moulton] CL: Defend Obamacare, consider making some amendments to make it more affordable for our country and citizens [McAuliffe, Bullock, Heinrich, Buttigieg] C: Forge a bipartisan replacement for Obamacare. [Kasich, Collins, Huntsman, Chafee, Edwards] CR: Repeal and replace Obamacare, but work with some Democrats to get it passed. [Graham, Martinez] R: Repeal and replace Obamacare, but without working with Democrats. Try to pass TrumpCare. [Trump, Cotton, Sasse, Rubio] FR: Repeal Healthcare, and do not replace it. Healthcare is NOT a right! [Paul, Cruz]
  11. Here's another issue for 2020, along with candidate positions. Let me know if I should amend anything. What I need most help on is playing the Republicans on this list, especially those who would be Right and Far Right] FL: Protect the American labor market. Punish companies that send jobs overseas. L: Increases taxes on companies that send jobs overseas. Free trade must include labor and environmental conditions. [Sanders, KHarris, Castro, Gabbard, Steyer, Warren, ShBrown, Schultz, Grayson, Franken, Moulton] CL: Consider new free trade carefully, and create incentives to keep jobs in America. [Trump, Biden, McAuliffe, O'Malley, Garcetti, Booker, Gillibrand, Newsom, Heinrich, HClinton, Buttigieg, Cuomo] C: Free trade is doing fine as it is. Corporate and labor culture are coping. [Chafee, Edwards, Bullock] CR: Outsourcing is not a problem, it is part of the globalized world and helps America. Additional free trade agreements. [Kasich, Graham, Paul, Cruz, Rubio, Martinez, Huntsman, Cotton, Sasse, Collins] R: Outsourcing allows US workers to find better jobs. Global free trade would only help America. FR: Businesses should be encourage to do whatever it takes to make a profit.
  12. Here's another campaign issue, along with candidate stances. This is basically an issue that separates the level of establishment and anti-establishment candidates. FL: We need total political and electoral reform to bring power to the people and working class! Abolish electoral college [Sanders] L: We must make an effort at political and electoral reform, abolish the electoral college and curb corruption. [KHarris, Gabbard, Garcetti, Steyer, Warren, ShBrown, Schultz, Grayson, Franken, Newsom, Cuomo, Moulton] CL: For the most part, everything is fine. We must make some minor changes towards political and electoral reform. [Biden, Chafee, Castro, Gillibrand, Heinrich, Buttigieg] C: Everything is fine as it is. [Kasich, Graham, Rubio, Martinez, Huntsman, McAuliffe, O'Malley, Edwards, Bullock, Booker, HClinton] CR: For the most part, everything is fine. Some reform is okay, as long as our valued institutions are still influential. [Cruz, Collins] R: We must make reform to make sure elections are not rigged, but things are otherwise mostly fine. [Trump, Cotton, Sasse] FR: We need major political and electoral form, but this must be done through the state level or through independent committees, rather than by the state government. [Paul]
  13. Here's another issue, along with candidate positions. Let me know if amendments are necessary. FL: Dramatic increase in funding. No to private investments. [Sanders] L: No to private and personal investment accounts. Increase in funding. [O'Malley, KHarris, Castro, Gabbard, Garcetti, Steyer, Warren, Booker, Gillibrand, ShBrown, Schultz, Grayson, Newsom, Cuomo, Moulton] CL: Allow a small amount of private investments but keep it regulated. [Biden, McAuliffe, Chafee, Edwards, Bullock, Heinrich, HClinton, Franken, Buttigieg] C: Keep social security as it is [Trump, Collins] CR: Let workers privately invest some of their retirement payments [Kasich, Graham, Rubio, Martinez, Huntsman] R: Gradually scale down federal involvement and implement privatization of social security over time. [Cruz, Cotton, Sasse] FR: Social Security is a ponzi scheme. Let workers privately invest all retirement payments. [Paul]
  14. Here is another 2020 issue, along with candidate positions. Let me know if anything should be altered. I really don't like the default Iran positions. FL: Iran should be allowed to develop nuclear technology. They'll only use it for peaceful purposes. L: We should deal with Iran through the UN, and uphold the Obama-era Iran Deal [Biden, Sanders, KHarris, Garcetti, Steyer, Warren, Booker, Gillibrand, ShBrown, Schultz, Grayson, Franken, Newsom, Cuomo, Moulton] CL: Diplomacy and economic sanctions should make Iran see things our way. [McAuliffe, O'Malley, Chafee, Castro, Gabbard, Bullock, Heinrich, HClinton, Buttigieg] C: Use diplomacy and economic sanction. Keep war on the table as a last resort. [Trump, Paul, Huntsman, Edwards] CR: We should prepare for an attack if intelligence suggests that we should [Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, Martinez, Cotton, Sasse, Collins] R: We should launch a pre-emptive attack, destroying their potential nuclear sites. [Graham] FR: Launch a full-fledged attack and invasion against Iran for threatening our interests.
  15. My 2020 election simulation. THE CANDIDATES REPUBLICAN Donald Trump - Declared John Kasich - Undecided Rand Paul - Not Seeking Nikki Haley - Not Seeking DEMOCRAT Martin O'Malley - Declared Lincoln Chafee - Declared John Hickenlooper - Declared Steve Bullock - Undecided Amy Klobuchar - Undecided Kamala Harris - Undecided Julian Castro - Undecided Jason Kander - Undecided Bernie Sanders - Undecided Cory Booker - Not Seeking Chris Murphy - Not Seeking Al Franken - Not Seeking Joe Biden - Not Seeking Elizabeth Warren - Not Seeking Hillary Clinton - Not Seeking Kristen Gillibrand - Not Seeking Tim Kaine - Not Seeking Andrew Cuomo - Not Seeking LIBERTARIAN Adam Kokesh - Declared Austin Petersen - Not Seeking GREEN Jill Stein - Declared INDEPENDENT Kanye West - Declared JULY 1st polling GOP Trump - 61% Kasich - 8% Paul - 6% Haley - 5% DEM's (Minimum 5 percent) Clinton - 17% Sanders - 10% Harris - 8% Biden - 7% Booker - 5% Gillibrand - 5% Castro - 5% LIB Kokesh - 40% Petersen - 40% General Election Democrats - 40% Republicans - 28% Libertarians - 1% Kanye - 1% Stein - 0%
  16. I've decided to post the updated 2020 Election as I currently have it, since I expect it to take awhile to put it all the events that I wrote down. The new update includes a few more candidates, more VPs, slightly altered events, and altered percentages. Overall, it's slightly more realistic than the previous version. You may want to keep version 5.0, separate from version 4.0, since 4.0 is much funnier, but much less realistic. It depends if you favor realism over fun, I suppose.
  17. I've included candidates in this poll that are not already included in my scenario. I'm also going to alter some of the events I have in my scenario from the one that is available for download. I feel as if Trump is going to be more mainline conservative than independent as I had thought. So I'll get rid or alter some of his more independent events. As such, the scenario will be less chaotic and less humorous. I will probably have both versions for download.
  18. The election is now up for download. It includes Joe Biden, and events for the entire primary and general election. Other adjustments have been made as well.
  19. Please post feedback and further suggestions here.
  20. Feel free to offer other suggestions, especially for Libertarian and Green, since I don't know who might run for these parties. You can download 2020 Election 1.0 on the website. The big names have already been included.