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  1. I I am starting work on a scenario (I have been practicing/playing with it since we could make our own.) I would love feedback, collaboration, ideas, any events, advice on candidates/VP candidates. 2016 Presidential Election (A Normal One) Once again, Americans will go to the polls. In 2016, parties are facing both contested primaries. The polls show most want something in addition to a campaign on the issues. Will a dark horse candidate emerge sending a message to the dynasties on both sides? With the ending of the Obama years’ fast approaching will it be a Republican to occupy the Oval Office for the next four years or will the Democrats’ protect the Obama legacy. Factors: No Donald Trump (Headline: Trump Announces AGAIN he will not seek Presidency.) He will continue to make headlines from time to time. THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT to make things more unpredictable. What if Sec. Hillary Clinton dropped out right after Christmas, after another 'health scare' needing to spend time with her family. She drops out and then field is open. Biden and Sanders will lead. But could give others like O'Malley, Warner, and Hickenlooper, or others to jump in and come through the middle in some primary states. Beau Biden lives, and is running for Governor of Delaware. (Joe is proud.) Decides with Jill as a family to run for the White House one last time. Gov. Mitt Romney picked Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell as his running mate (the Romney-McDonnell ticket carried the state of Virginia in this scenario) Ted Cruz lost by less than a percent in the 2012 TX Senate Primary runoff, went into private sector. (David Dewhurst is the junior Senator from Texas) so he is of no relevance. The scandal that ruined the bright future of McDonnell never occurred in this alternate scenario. He wrote a NYT best-selling book after leaving office in 2013 and opted out of the urge to jump into the 2014 U.S. Senate race, even after the backing of friends and old running mates Ann and Mitt Romney. My thought is to make it as the electorate (in both primaries as well) would like a fresh face (FOR BOTH PARTIES, but still the Clinton-Bush's have the upper hand. This would mean challenging the frontrunners of Bob McDonnell (as former and popular VP nominee) and Fmr. Gov. Jeb Bush against a field of quality candidates. Candidates: Republican Candidates: (much smaller field than original) Fmr. Governor of Virginia Bob McDonnell (Have Bio) The frontrunner, easy to say, after all he was Mitt Romney’s running mate last election instantly becoming national figure in the country. Passing on a challenge to Senator Warner in 2014, he has stayed relevant. Can he learn from his mistakes of the past, or will he just not be able to connect with the American people? Fmr. Governor of Florida Jeb Bush U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Governor of Ohio John Kasich Fmr. Governor of Texas Rick Perry Democratic Candidates: (much larger field than original) Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (may drop out early/timed event announcing she must focus on her health for herself and her family) Vice President of the United States Joe Biden (may a report/leak come out that Biden was for the Bin Laden Raid come out) U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley U.S. Senator Mark Warner of Virginia Fmr. U.S. Senator Jim Webb of Virginia Governor of Colorado John Hickenlooper Just needing ideas and polling ideas. Any alternative event that sways things. Should I remove candidates, add candidates? It would be interesting. Feedback for a newbie on here please?
  2. The Historical Scenario Commission updates for 1992-2020 are now completed! The HSC has updated 1788-2020; thus, all of our elections are now playable with many what-if options, events, endorsers, etc. This concludes this round of updates. *Note: There will be one last "Final" update, which will likely take up all of 2018 to finish. This final update will go over every minute detail of these scenarios, perfecting and improving them. Your feedback will help towards this update. I hope some of you will volunteer. Only fully committed, determined forum users apply.
  3. How do I add the 2016 update ? (http://campaigns.270soft.com/2016/11/10/2016-general-election-daily-poll-updates/) I downloaded it but I don't know how to add it because it isn't a new scenario, just added features
  4. Which General Election Events should be included in the 2016 scenario. How powerful should they be?
  5. I'm just curious as to what cites people use. In addition to using this forum, I check (daily): - Real Clear Politics - CNN - Fox News - MSNBC - CNBC - BBC - Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Five Thirty Eight - Huffington Post - Twitter - Politico - Politifact Where do you go for 2016 information?
  6. Which General Election Events should be included in the 2016 scenario. How powerful should they be?
  7. I'm making an update version of 2016 with strong 3rd parties. According to several polls, both 3rd parties are showing an increase of strange by about 4x on average. So basically, I've increased their 2012 polling numbers by 4 for both parties, reducing the major parties accordingly, with Libertarians draining Republicans (generally) and Green draining Democrats. The interesting part is that the Libertarian Party could give red states MT, MO, IN, along with all the battleground states, except for Michigan, where the Green Party hurts Clinton there. Basically, every place that the Green Party does well, the Libertarians also do well, except in Michigan. Thus, in theory the Green Party shouldn't really hurt Clinton, while the Libertarian Party hurts Trump.
  8. I know this is early, but if things stand as they are, I expect a rather significant Clinton victory. News outlets are stating that Trump is way behind in cash, people are unendorsing him for racist comments, people are considering the Libertarian alternative, and some GOP donors are saying they may support Clinton. In Texas, I have several conservative friends that have never voted Democrat and they are voting for Clinton this election, expecting to vote Republican again in 2020 when Trump loses badly. The media will probably focus more on Trump's faults than Clinton's, regardless of whichever are worse faults. Sanders says he will do whatever he can to help Clinton with Trump, even though he's still in the race. Warren has endorsed Clinton. This will probably lead to more acceptance of Clinton. I expect most of the current undecideds who will vote to go for Clinton. As such here is my June 11 prediction: Popular vote/EV Clinton 52% 406 Trump 43% 132 Johnson 4% 0 Stein 1% 0 Map is here: http://www.270towin.com/maps/qgld2 I think after Clinton's victory, the Republican Party will change drastically in order to have a shot in 2020. I think Clinton's presidency will only be an extension of Obama, but I expect the economy to be good enough that Clinton could have an easy shot for reelection in 2020 if the Republican Party can alter itself into a cohesive and likable party with respectable national candidates, rather than regional like a Cruz. If you notice, Clinton and the Democrats in general field national candidates. Clinton can't be pinned as a Northeasterner. She fits everywhere, even where Sanders did really well. Trump's success is due in part to being the only national Republican doing well in the campaign. I think Clinton may serve one term and hand the reigns over to Warren, if she's the VP. If the Republicans don't change, then I could see the Democrats holding the executive every election. Republicans, who like to stay regional, will probably consistently do well in the house and at the gubernatorial levels. The Senate will probably be 50/50 for awhile, if both parties don't change. However, Democrats will have to alter themselves as well in anticipation of the Republicans shaping up. I'm not sure how much the Sanders/Warren wing will do in a Democratic alteration, since the Democrats shouldn't become regional themselves. In short, the most national party will generally do best. This has definitely been that case for nearly every previous election, starting with the first, when Washington was acceptable to the entire country, while the rest, Adams, Hamilton, Madison, Pinckney would have to modify their political opinions to be more all encompassing. Clinton as much as I dislike her (I voted Sanders) is a preeminent national politician this will serve her well in the general election -- much better than it would in the primaries, where regionality can have certain perks.
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