Scenario: 2008 (newest version of P4ever 2008), Hard mode, everything checked
Dems: Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinch, Vilsack
GOP: Giuliani, Thompson, McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Tancredo, Hunter
October 2007: Ron Paul begins a barnstorming, foot soldier, and leadership ad campaign in Iowa and accepts invitations to the Oprah Winfrey Show and Letterman Show for more publicity. He wins the Republican debate in October and by the end of the month, he has a legit chance of taking the state from Romney. Paultards are all over Iowa and have taken Ron Paul to a lead in Iowa. Bill Maher joins the Ron Paul campaign as well.
November 2007: Ron Paul, fresh off of setting off a strong organization in Iowa, moves on to barnstorm and set up the grassroots in Florida and New Hampshire. It is effective in both states, but even more so in Florida.
December 2007: The December debate is a draw between Ron Paul and Romney. Ron Paul campaigns once again in Iowa and makes an appearance on the Daily Show. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida turn into battleground states between Romney and Paul. Final polls before Iowa caucuses indicate that Romney has a 3% lead on Paul and a substantial lead for John Edwards.
January 2008: Ron Paul squeezes in barnstorming in the final days before the Iowa caucuses, then focused on campaigning in New Hampshire and South Carolina following the Iowa caucuses.
Iowa Democratic caucuses: Edwards 25.9%, Dodd 22%, Biden 12.8%, Kucinch 11.1% (others below 10%)
Iowa Republican caucuses: Paul 41%, Romney 35% (others below 10%)
Ron Paul had a 2% lead prior to the NH primary on Romney:
New Hampshire Democratic primary: Edwards 38.9%, Clinton 17.6%, Dodd 13.5%, Richardson 11.2%
New Hampshire Republican primary: Paul 43.1%, Romney 31.5%, Giuliani 9.9%
Final polls in Nevada and South Carolina indicate landslide victories for Ron Paul, by double digits of 14% and 10%. Paul is behind leader Romney in Michigan by a whopping 22%, as Ron Paul never campaigned there. Ron Paul decides to campaign more in Florida and expand his foot soldier campaign into Georgia and Alabama.
Democratic Nevada primary: Edwards 38.7%, Richardson 20.7%, Clinton 14.3%
Republican Nevada primary: Paul 44.6%, Romney 21.9%, Thompson 14.4%
Republican Michigan primary: Romney 27.3%, McCain 25.5%, Paul 20.9%, Thompson 13.4%
Democratic South Carolina primary: Edwards 35.7%, Clinton 14.6%, Kucinch 12.1%, Obama 11.5%, Dodd 10.1%
Republican South Carolina primary: Paul 40.8%, Romney 11.1%
Biden withdraws from the race, while Ron Paul continues to campaign in Florida. Polls before the Florida primary indicates Ron Paul is down 2% to Romney.
Republican Florida primary: Paul 37.2%, Romney 30.1%, Thompson 13.8%
Following the victory, Ron Paul campaigned mainly in California in preparation for Tsunami Tuesday, and also campaigned in Louisiana and Nebraska, while setting up foot soldiers in Texas and Ohio. Edwards and Paul are entering Tsunami Tuesday with all the momentum. Giuliani wins Maine in this stretch as well.
February 2008: Super Tuesday winners:
Hillary Clinton: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee
John Edwards: Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, New York, Utah
Ron Paul: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, Tennessee, West Virginia
Mike Huckabee: Arkansas
Rudy Giuliani: Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma
John McCain: Utah
Following Super Tuesday:
Hillary Clinton: Nebraska
John Edwards: Louisiana, Maine, Washington
Ron Paul: Louisiana, Nebraska
Rudy Giuliani: Washington
Kucinch withdraws from the race. Vilsack withdraws and endorses Edwards. Tancredo withdraws. Brownback withdraws to endorse Ron Paul. After Ron Paul's performance, he returns to the Oprah Winfrey Show and the two races are in effect down to Ron Paul vs. Giuliani, and Hillary vs. Edwards. Ron Paul campaigns in Virginia, Wisconsin, and Ohio for those votes and integrity ads are run in many post-Super Tuesday states.
Estimated delegate count at February 11, 2008:
Democrats: Edwards 2014, Clinton 1557, Obama 189, Richardson 42, Dodd 21, Kucinch 13
Republicans: Giuliani 991, Paul 932, McCain 68, Thompson 38, Huckabee 34, Romney 30
Winners in week of February 11:
John Edwards: Maryland, Virginia
Hillary Clinton: Washington DC
Rudy Giuliani: Maryland
Ron Paul: Virginia, Washington DC
By February 18, it looks increasingly clear to most observers that barring some collapse, frontrunners John Edwards and Ron Paul will win their nominations. Edwards gets the endorsements of Obama and Dodd, while Huckabee and McCain both endorse Paul.
Feb 18 week: Edwards and Ron Paul win Wisconsin.
By February 25, Thompson and Hunter withdraw from the Republican race.
Feb 25 week: Richardson and Giuliani win Hawaii.
Romney withdraws just prior to the March 4th primaries.
March 4th primaries winners:
John Edwards: Ohio, Texas, Kansas
Hillary Clinton: Rhode Island
Bill Richardson: Vermont
Rudy Giuliani: Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont
Ron Paul: Texas
Ron Paul's campaigning shifted to Indiana, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania, as Giuliani refused to admit defeat. Ron Paul also makes another apperance on the Oprah show. Richardson withdrew in mid-March and endorsed Edwards.
March 11: Edwards and Giuliani win Mississippi.
March 18: Edwards wins Wyoming.
April 1: Paul wins Kansas.
On April 15, Hillary withdraws from the Democratic race, leaving John Edwards the victor after being down 2356-1480 in estimated delegates.
April 21: Giuliani wins Pennsylvania.
May 6: Giuliani accepts Ron Paul's offer to be vice president. Ron Paul wins the presidential nomination. The general election officially begins with Edwards holding just a 0.8% edge nationwide, and a 198-170 lead.
May 2008: Ron Paul works on his debating ability and campaigns in the swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, as his campaign researches the Edwards camp.
June 2008: Ron Paul expands his campaigning operations to Illinois and Florida. In Mid-June, a huge scandal leaks out about John Edwards' dealings with lobbyists when he was in the Senate, hurting his leadership credentials. Despite the scandal, Edwards retains a slight 2% lead over Paul due to negative ads by Edwards over Ron Paul's "extreme" policies.
July 2008: Paul continues to campaign in the 4 swing states and worked on his issue familiarity and debating skills, running ads when he has money. Edwards retains the lead on Ron Paul.
August 2008: Ron Paul is caught in a integrity scandal, but it fades away quickly. Ron Paul's campaign continues to work on brushing up on issues. The Democratic Convention confirms a John Edwards/Barack Obama ticket, giving the Democrats momentum and a 1% boost.
September 2008, Week 1: Ron Paul gets no boost from the Republican Convention.
The general election campaign officially begins...(I'll add more to this later)