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RI Democrat

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RI Democrat last won the day on November 14 2009

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  1. RI Democrat

    Ontario 2018 Scenario

    Hi Anthony, I tried one other thing I thought I'd let you know about - I went in and edited the individual party leaders' relations to match their parties (i.e. Very Bad for Wynne/Ford, Good for Wynne/Schreiner, Bad for Wynne/Horwath, etc.), started the game as Horwath, and I did not get the bizarrely high relations score with Ford, nor did Wynne and Ford form a non-aggression pact in the first 7 days.
  2. RI Democrat

    Ontario 2018 Scenario

    I tried running a 7-days-per turn campaign as the NOTA party just to check a couple things. The Ford-Wynne non-aggression pact happens right off the bat again. Here's the screenshot. Not only that, but on the next day, Ford and Horwath also agreed to a nonaggression pact. The latter did not happen in my previous game, but I was playing as the NDP - maybe there is some quirk in how computer-computer nonaggression pacts are being decided?
  3. RI Democrat

    Ontario 2018 Scenario

    Regarding question 1, I picked the later start date for the scenario but I don't think much of anything had actually happened yet - at most I played maybe one or two days before looking at the party relations screen, and Wynne & Ford announced their 20-day nonaggression pact after just a day or two as well.
  4. Anyway, about the fluctuations - I realize that maybe I tend to harp on this and perhaps nobody else cares, but I did actually track the results in one riding from the Ontario 2018 scenario, Mississauga-Malton, from 9:00 p.m. onward and here's what I found. The first table shows the total number of votes for each party at the 10-minute intervals when the totals update, and the second table shows the number of votes added at each 10-minute interval (calculated by subtracting the previous totals from the new totals): I am by no means an expert on the political geography of this or any other riding, but this seems unlikely in the extreme to me. As we can see, it was a fairly competitive three-way race overall. But for these counts to happen IRL, the polling stations reporting during the 9:20-9:30 and 9:40-9:50 intervals would be from areas where literally no one at all voted for the PCs out of two or three thousand votes total. Some of the other intervals also showed surprisingly minuscule totals for the Liberals (9:20) and NDP (9:40) as well. I don't know how the game generates these numbers, but I think if we could arrive at a happy medium between this and the much smaller fluctuations from the President Forever 2008 / PM Forever 2011 era, I think it would be a much better and more legitimately interesting and suspenseful portrayal of an election night. As things stand, it doesn't really seem worth paying much attention until the counting is actually finished.
  5. RI Democrat

    Ontario 2018 Scenario

    Just started playing a round as the NDP with the updated PMI Canada and thought I'd collect my thoughts as I go along. I realize that this might be sort of a "beta" version and some of these issues will go away as updates come. (And some of these are just play-by-play observations rather than points of contention anyway.) On the very first day, Wynne and Ford agreed to a 20-day non-aggression pact. Maybe the relations numbers need to be changed? On my own Relations screen, Horwath has 92 with Ford, 33 with Wynne, and 34 with Schreiner. I can't see the Wynne-Ford relations score, but from my admittedly cursory knowledge of Ontario politics, it seems unlikely that both the Liberals and the NDP would get along with the PCs better than with each other or that Wynne and Ford would agree not to attack each other for 20 minutes, much less 20 days. I appear to have a -2 rating for my Transit & Infrastructure position in North York and North Toronto, even though Horwath's position is scored as 26.7L and the regional center is 20.5L. Why is that a minus-2? Is there some other factor that I'm overlooking? Also, for whatever reason, the labels of Center, Center-Left, etc. aren't appearing under certain of the issue scales: Nice to see the differentiated issue importance for the different regions (this is something I'm usually too lazy to do in my own scenarios). I won the debate! Though I didn't actually do much to prepare for it. Ford had an attack backfire and only got 1 point to my 8 and Wynne's 6. I seem to have better platform scores for most of the individual regions than I do for Ontario overall - maybe the province-wide issue centers are tilted a little to the right? The following issues are listed as possible to have scandals: integrity, transit, education, democratic reform, taxes, housing Moving into the final week and a half and I'm probably going to have to do a lot of fundraising to stay afloat. I'm trying to deny the PCs a majority, so I'm not investing as much into tight races with the Liberals or into ridings where it's a close LIB-PC battle with the NDP well behind. Well, crap - a policy speech on health care, one of my theme issues, just backfired. Five days left and Ford is releasing an attack ad on...Schreiner? Well, at least he's leaving me alone. With three days left, the polls are projecting PC 64, LIB 25, NDP 23, 12 undecided Momentum is on my side in the final days whereas Ford has had some backfires and is still wasting money on attacking Schreiner. Could be too little, too late though. Something I've never fully understood in these games - sometimes when I go to barnstorm in a seat where I have negative momentum, the game will predict something like -1 or -2 power from the event. But is that necessarily how it will actually score? It seems to me that the barnstorming should have the potential effect of offsetting the negative momentum. Day 0 and Wynne just released an attack ad on Schreiner too. Okay then. Un-halted my one TV ad - not sure if it'll actually count towards anything. Ridings where one or more parties do not have the candidate's name: Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill (NDP), Flamborough-Glanbrook (NDP), Kanata-Carleton (NDP), Markham-Stouffville (NDP), Markham-Thornhill (NDP), Markham-Unionville (NDP), Milton (NDP), Niagara West (LIB), Oakville North-Burlington (NDP), Scarborough-Agincourt (NDP), Scarborough-Guildwood (NDP), Still seeing some pretty big vote fluctuations in some seats - will elaborate on this in a second post. Final results: PC 60, NDP 34, LIB 30. The post-election negotiations were extremely difficult - the best I could do was to first give Wynne all my remaining PIPs for nothing, thus improving the two parties' relations, then pledge confidence and supply to the Liberals even though I had more seats than they did (though they had a slightly higher percentage of the popular vote).
  6. RI Democrat

    Forum Political Compass

    Did you ever see the time Jack Layton passionately called for an end to "subsidies for big oil and big ass"? I think he just managed to correct himself ("big gas") before being drowned out by all the hooting and hollering.
  7. RI Democrat

    Forum Political Compass

    The U.S. Congress is actually the anomaly in English-speaking countries' legislatures. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand all have their share of interjections and extraneous noise from what I've seen, though it isn't as loud in Australia and New Zealand since their legislatures are smaller. But there's certainly a level of showmanship and verbal combat that you wouldn't see in the U.S. House or Senate most of the time. One of my favorite exchanges was in Australia between Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, before either of them had become party leaders - Gillard referred to Abbott as a "sniveling grub," the Speaker told her she had to apologize, and she promptly apologized if she had offended any grubs. (She did get thrown out for that, IIRC.)
  8. RI Democrat

    Quebec 2018

    Good point. Do you think the UCP will become another four-decades-long Alberta dynasty now?
  9. RI Democrat

    Quebec 2018

    The PCs in 1993 and the B.C. NDP in 2001 being Exhibits A and B?
  10. RI Democrat

    Quebec 2018

    Is there any consensus on what underlies the seeming volatility in Canada? Do voters just pay more attention to the campaigns? Or are they more attuned to strategic voting with the focus more on defeating a certain party than on who replaces them? It sounded to me like the Liberals won in 2015 partly because they'd won the preliminary "which one of us can actually beat Harper" contest with the NDP and then centre-left votes started flocking to their camp.
  11. RI Democrat

    Roll Call Conventions

    One thing that I've noticed every time I've gotten to a convention is that the eliminated candidates' delegates always seem to shift en masse to some other candidate. It seems more likely that they would divide up between the candidates still in the race - even if the defeated candidate endorses somebody, I don't think that's binding upon the delegates. If, for example, Biden had gotten into the primary and finished third with something like Clinton 45%, Sanders 30%, Biden 25%, my guess is that Biden probably would have endorsed Hillary, but some of his delegates would have still voted for Bernie in the next round.
  12. RI Democrat

    Trump Forum Approval Poll (May 2018)

    On North Korea I feel like he just stumbled into this more than anything. I doubt that his "fire and fury" comment was a conscious application of the Nixonian "madman theory," and even if it was, I think what might be happening is that the effect it had was not on North Korea but China, who simply don't want this thing to flare up and are using their influence with NK to urge Kim to cool his jets. I also just object in principle to the idea that you should get a Nobel Peace Prize by threatening to start a devastating war, or pretending to be willing to start one. I don't think Kim or Xi should get it either if this works out - if anybody should, it's probably Moon.
  13. RI Democrat

    Alberta - 1935

    I knew the background about the B.C. Liberals (though I wasn't aware that the Quebec Liberals were considered center-right - I thought that was the Coalition Avenir Quebec's territory). What I meant is that the B.C. Liberals seem to get a higher percentage of the vote in provincial elections than the federal Conservatives do in B.C. in federal elections. Is that because right-leaning federal Liberal voters prefer them to the NDP in the provincial context?
  14. RI Democrat

    Forum Political Compass

    Economic Left/Right: -7.75 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.33 I'm curious how the questions about astrology and people being "naturally unlucky" affect the scores. I answered strong negative on astrology, and I think I disagreed moderately on people being naturally unlucky. I do think bad luck plays a major role in people's lives, but I wouldn't say it's "natural" in the sense that they're some how fated to be unlucky. It's just something that happens. I actually consider myself a little more towards the middle on the social dimension - I think I have certain philosophical similarities to the Canadian Red Tories of the 1950s-1970s, even if my policy positions are mostly to the left.
  15. RI Democrat

    Alberta - 1935

    It seems like the B.C. Liberals are more consistently successful than the federal Conservatives in British Columbia. Have they been able to hold onto a portion of the center with their policies and/or their name, such that a number of federal Liberal and/or NDP voters back them in provincial elections? BTW Patine, is there any way Rachel Notley isn't a dead woman walking now that the Tories and Wildrose have united? (And is there any chance there might finally be a United Non-Conservative Party of Alberta?)
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