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RI Democrat

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RI Democrat last won the day on November 14 2009

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  1. Well, I did say that it was an alternate universe scenario.
  2. The Greens (who are not really extremists in the German context) and Left can win in Berlin, and the AfD have a shot at winning seats in a couple of eastern states. The FDP would require a minor miracle to win, as their support is simply too diffuse and rarely if ever gets above 10-15% in any individual seat. But yes, this system would relegate the smaller parties to exercising power primarily through their preference flows, just as the smaller parties in Australia tend to do. And the SPD's only hope would probably still be a coalition with the Left and/or Greens given how far behind they start.
  3. Since the K4E engine - with overhang seats but no leveling seats - no longer actually mimics the system presently used in Germany, I decided to do a bit of an "alternate universe" scenario where Germany operates on the Australian alternative vote system, partly just because I'd already done a fair amount of research on the 2017 German election and didn't want to just let it go to waste. Here's a screenshot of the 2-party vote on Day 1: The main drawback so far is that this election wasn't particularly close under MMP, nor is it particularly close when I use the constituency vote in each seat as the starting point - even after putting in a 4-point universal shift in the SPD's favor, the stage is set for a huge CDU/CSU landslide. I only found a couple of RL events to incorporate, but if anyone has suggestions for some hypothetical events that would potentially make it a closer race, I'd love to hear them. I'm also open to suggestions for alternate leaders and preference flows - as things stand, I have most of the Green and Left vote flowing to the SPD and most of the Free Democratic and AfD vote flowing to the CDU/CSU, though the AfD and CDU/CSU also have Very Bad relations. Germany - 2017 - AV.zip
  4. I tried opening it and immediately got "NAN is not a valid currency value" when I tried to pull up the percentages for the 2P vote. I've had a similar problem with an STV scenario of my own, so unfortunately I'm not sure what the root of it might be.
  5. Trump isn't an especially good debater either, though - he tends to ramble, and at least in the first debate with Hillary, he acted like a real jerk interrupting all the time. I don't see either of them as all that likely to come up with a game-changing moment in the debates. Mostly I just want to see Biden call something Trump says "malarkey."
  6. If Biden wins over 300 electoral votes, I think he also takes Nebraska's 2nd and its one electoral vote.
  7. Does the book say how Xi or anyone else in China actually responded to this? It seems less than obvious to me that Trump getting re-elected is necessarily in China's best interests anyway. He's probably softer on their human rights record than Biden would be, but he also has a penchant for trade wars and for impulsive behavior in general. Xi might not be too inclined to do him any favors.
  8. Virginia is getting increasingly liberal and Democratic lately - I'm not so sure they'd go with the rest of the South in the event of this sort of breakup.
  9. I think this poll was derived by taking relatively small samples from each of the states named and then combining them into one big "swing state sample." While it's obviously not *good* news for Biden, I'm somewhat skeptical of the methodology and would tend to pay more attention to the individual state polls.
  10. No way is she going to be Biden's VP. I'm just glad she isn't going to pull a Ralph Nader and run third-party or indie. (Yes, I know our two-party system sucks. I also recognize that we're stuck with it for the time being.)
  11. I hope not. An unabashedly pro-fossil fuel and economically conservative Democratic Party would leave me with nowhere plausible to take my vote. And I don't think supporting bailouts really breaks down along traditional left-right lines. I generally prefer more direct economic stimulus spending to bailouts, but I also recognize that bailouts may sometimes be the lesser of two evils if more fundamental economic reforms aren't on the table and the collateral damage to workers is potentially high. I'd have probably held my nose and voted for the 2008 bank bailout if I'd been a member of Congress.
  12. I hadn't really considered Baldwin before, but there's a certain logic to it. She's probably somewhere between Warren and Klobuchar ideologically, and she would add something to the ticket without the risk that she overshadows Biden altogether (as Warren might), and she's from a more competitive part of the country than Harris. Two names I haven't seen mentioned - though I'd consider both of them unlikely - are Claire McCaskill and Mary Landrieu. My guess is that they're both done with electoral politics, and their states aren't going to be competitive unless Trump is already losing by a wide margin, but they would be alternative possibilities if Biden wants to pick a moderate and decides against Klobuchar for whatever reason.
  13. I hadn't ever heard of him being on VP shortlists. If he'd won, then maybe, but as things stand he's just an ex-mayor who lost a gubernatorial election. Given that coronavirus will likely still be an issue in November, Biden needs to pick somebody with more experience as his running mate. This is why I also don't think he should pick Stacey Abrams.
  14. Where are you seeing polls with Trump beating Biden in MI, PA, and WI? The ones that came out on Monday have Biden and Bernie ahead in all three: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
  15. One thing I've read is that voters who disapproved of both Trump and Clinton in 2016 voted for Trump by double digits. Some of them may be partisan Republicans who dislike Trump personally but will still vote for him over the Democrat, but the ones who are swayable and looking to flip the middle finger at the establishment may not be as pro-Trump this time around. Sure, he'll continue complaining about "fake news" and the "deep state," but can you really pitch yourself as an outsider when you've been President for the last four years?
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