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The Blood

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About The Blood

  • Rank
    Political Guru
  • Birthday 06/01/1999

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  • Gender
    Female
  • Location
    Kansas
  • Interests
    Vexillology, Politics, Anybody-But-Bloomberg 2020, Yang 2028, DnD, History,

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  1. September 22nd Race and Polling Updates: Race updates: This week brought the very first dropouts of the campaign season, with both Bill Weld and Ralph Northam dropping out from their respective races. This week also brought the entrance of two candidates on the Democratic side, with both Kamala Harris and Joe Kennedy making quite the splash as they announced their candidacies. Meanwhile, AOC and Cuomo both appear to be MIA, causing chaos in Democratic ranks, as establishment donors rush to back the bids of Kennedy and Kamala, and as progressives begin to consider the bid of one Cenk Uygur. Cenk, though unlikely(Very unlikely) to win the primary, has continued to rise as the grassroots of the left-wing of the Democratic Party and online left-wing spaces continue to rally support around him. His rise also coincides with the rise of one Marianne Williamson, who is rising with similar support, though more slowly, and even more unlikely to energize the party around her bid. On the Libertarian side, Bill Weld's sad, sad departure(Weld 2028!) has left many of his voters now faced with a difficult choice. Weld's message attracted many independents and moderates who were not attracted to harder Libertarianism. As such, now facing a choice between Amash and Rand Paul, though many are rallying around Paul, more than a few are undecided as it stands. On the Republican side, Paul Ryan has gone MIA from the trail, and Rand Paul is continuing his rise, this time with gains in Iowa exciting the media. Curt Shilling is also continuing his rise as he gathers up Trump's base, all the while Kanye continues his fall, as he has remained silent for weeks. For the General, the LP is strengthened by the strength of their 2 candidates, while the Democrats find resolve as Kamala and Keneddy reinvigorate discussion around the party. Polling Data: Democratic Field: Governor Andrew Cuomo: 24% Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: 16% Senator Joe Kennedy III: 15% Senator Kamala Harris: 10% Cenk Uygur: 7% Marianne Williamson: 4% Undecided: 24% Polling Data: Democratic Field - New Hampshire : Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: 22% Governor Andrew Cuomo: 20% Senator Joe Kennedy III: 19% Senator Kamala Harris: 7% Marianne Williamson: 7% Cenk Uygur: 7% Undecided: 18% Polling Data: Democratic Field - Nevada : Governor Andrew Cuomo: 25% Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: 24% Senator Joe Kennedy III: 14% Senator Kamala Harris: 11% Cenk Uygur: 6% Marianne Williamson: 4% Undecided: 16% Polling Data: Libertarian Field Version 1: Polling Among Registered Party Members: Former Congressman Justin Amash: 51% Senator Rand Paul: 37% Undecided: 12% Polling Date: Libertarian Field Version 2: LNC Delegate Poll: Justin Amash: 46% Senator Rand Paul: 40% Undecided: 14% Polling Data: Republican Field: Curt Shilling: 15% Former Congressman Paul Ryan: 14% Kanye West: 10% Dan Crenshaw: 10% Senator Rand Paul 8% Undecided: 43% Polling Data: Republican Field - Iowa: Former Congressman Paul Ryan: 15% Dan Crenshaw: 15% Curt Shilling: 14% Kanye West: 13% Senator Rand Paul 10% Undecided: 33% Polling Data: Republican Field - New Hampshire: Curt Shilling: 15% Former Congressman Paul Ryan: 14% Kanye West: 11% Dan Crenshaw: 7% Senator Rand Paul 6% Undecided: 47% General Election Polling(Generic Ballot): Democrats: 44% Republicans: 34% Libertarians: 15% Undecided: 7%
  2. (Just because I haven't been able to release polling yet I'll count your suspension as having happened during the last turn to factor it into polling.)
  3. The last turn has ended and the new one has started. Polling will be out in the afternoon.
  4. I'll keep the the current turn going until 12 AM EST tomorrow morning to allow time any any late posters. After that, I'll post polling updates tomorrow morning or afternoon.
  5. I try and rotate the early states in how their polling is shown, with 2 states having updated polling data per turn. This works to give the sense that 1. It takes a while for the effects a candidate made in a given state to be seen, and 2. Sometimes there is a simple lack of information for a week during a primary season. It also helps me put out polling more effectively and quickly, as I don't have to juggle 4 different states and their polling data + the 3 early states on the Democratic side.
  6. September 15th Race and Polling Updates: Race updates: The most important piece of news coming out of this week was the possible launch of a candidacy for President from Representative Dan Crenshaw. Crenshaw, who has built up a strong resume in the House, appears to be providing an alternative to the candidates currently in the race. Appealing to populists, conservatives, evangelicals, and even some establishment forces alike, Crenshaw, though he will need some time to make his mark on the race, has made quite the stir with his possible candidacy. Meanwhile, though his silence originally helped create gains in the polls, Kanye West has begun to slide in national polling as media attention has begun to wane, and as Curt Shilling continues his rise. And Shilling is indeed rising, continuing to grab more and more of Trump's 2016 base as he rides off of endorsements from populists such as Tucker Carlson. Another hotshot in the Republican race is Rand Paul. Despite his quixotic run being decried by some, with fervor he is slowly but surely climbing up in the Primary. Meanwhile, Ryan 2024 appears to be sputtering along, this week with a half-hearted event in Iowa marking his only event of the week, spreading doubt over his bid. On the Libertarian side, Amash is strong than ever, beginning a rebound from the support he lost following Rand's entrance into the race. However, Rand's impending rise is on the horizon in the LP race, as Weld's failure to make his mark thus far has allowed for Rand's energy to shine through, especially as Rand has made sure not to forget his libertarian side and focus throughout his run, making pledges for what he would do as a joint-nominee which make many in the LP more than excited. As mentioned, Weld is struggling, however, is hanging on to his ready contingent of moderate Libertarians, though his grasp is slipping. On the Democratic side, chaos is breaking out. Cuomo has been MIA for a week, radio silence has come from AOC and Joe Kennedy III, and Marianne Williamson has formed a Twitch channel. However, in the chaos, some notes can be taken. Uygur, despite his weak standing originally, has continued to rise as progressives are doubting the possibility of AOC 2024. Meanwhile, Williamson has stagnated, especially after the round of media laughter she received following her formation of a Twitch channel. Ralph Northam meanwhile has benefited from Cuomo's MIA condition. Kennedy, AOC, and Cuomo have all fallen in polling as confusion hits the field. In the General, the Democratic Party chaos has weakened the Democrats, while aiding the Libertarians. Polling Data: Democratic Field: Governor Andrew Cuomo: 26% Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: 18% Senator Joe Kennedy III: 13% Ralph Northam: 7% Cenk Uygur: 5% Marianne Williamson: 3% Undecided: 28% Polling Data: Democratic Field - South Carolina : Governor Andrew Cuomo: 28% Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: 16% Senator Joe Kennedy III: 10% Ralph Northam: 8% Marianne Williamson: 4% Cenk Uygur: 3% Undecided: 31% Polling Data: Democratic Field - New Hampshire : Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: 24% Governor Andrew Cuomo: 21% Senator Joe Kennedy III: 17% Ralph Northam: 6% Marianne Williamson: 6% Cenk Uygur: 5% Undecided: 21% Polling Data: Libertarian Field Version 1: Polling Among Registered Party Members: Former Congressman Justin Amash: 49% Senator Rand Paul: 31% Former Governor Bill Weld: 17% Undecided: 3% Polling Date: Libertarian Field Version 2: LNC Delegate Poll: Justin Amash: 43% Senator Rand Paul: 33% Bill Weld: 19% Undecided: 5% Polling Data: Republican Field: Former Congressman Paul Ryan: 15% Curt Shilling: 13% Kanye West: 12% Dan Crenshaw: 8% Senator Rand Paul 7% Undecided: 45% Polling Data: Republican Field - South Carolina: Kanye West: 16% Curt Shilling: 15% Former Congressman Paul Ryan: 14% Dan Crenshaw: 11% Senator Rand Paul 6% Undecided: 38% Polling Data: Republican Field - Nevada: Curt Shilling: 15% Former Congressman Paul Ryan: 14% Kanye West: 11% Dan Crenshaw: 8% Senator Rand Paul 7% Undecided: 45% General Election Polling(Generic Ballot): Democrats: 43% Republicans: 34% Libertarians: 14% Undecided: 9%
  7. The second turn is over, and the third turn has begun. Expect polling updates tomorrow afternoon(I'll be busy in the morning).
  8. For anyone wondering, I am keeping the second turn running until 12 AM EST tomorrow morning to give one last chance for any MIA players who have not been in communication with me to post events.
  9. Meta: I am alive! I am sorry for all of the delays which occurred over the past couple of days. As I mentioned, I was busy during this period, though I did not expect to be pulled away from this RP in the way that I was. Well, I am back, and can once again devote a strong amount of time to this RP for the foreseeable future. Without further delay, polling and race updates are here! September 8th Race and Polling Updates: Campaign Kickoffs: Though the candidacies of Kanye West, AOC, and Joe Kennedy III are still in doubt, over the timeframe of a week countless candidates have formed exploratory committees or have formally declared their runs for the Presidency. Among these, a strong few appear to already begin making splashes on the trail and in the media. On the Democratic side, in the absence of a declaration from AOC, Cenk Uygur, long expected to flop in the Primary, has held his ground in polling and pulled off a strong launch to his campaign in part off the back of Justice Democrats. Meanwhile, Marianne Williamson pulled off an average and sound launch to her campaign, creating tension in polling between her and Uygur, as the possibility of AOC skipping out on a run has left the both of them in competition for the mantel of the progressive champion in 2024. Cuomo performed what many considered to be a quiet and uneventful launch, however, he remains the clear frontrunner in an unclear and forever shifting race. Northam, for all he could have provided, gave a quiet launch, likely doing little to help himself beyond what his default would have been in national and early state polling. Joe Kennedy III, much like AOC, is expected to run but has not yet made any definitive step towards a run. Gillibrand, after being widely expected to run, made it clear in a statement to major media networks that she was not going to attempt a run. On the Libertarian side, Justin Amash has rapidly consolidated his position as the frontrunner in the race, both firming up his position in the race and strengthening awareness and media coverage of the LP. Bill Weld, meanwhile, failed to make a strong launch, however remains a favorite among moderates in the LP and independents not officially aligned with the LP. The LP race did receive an interesting shakeup, however, with Senator Rand Paul forming an exploratory committee to explore a possible run for the Republican and Libertarian nominations. Despite being outright rejected by some in the LP for his connections to and concessions to Trump over his Presidency, Paul has gathered support in the LP based on his longtime libertarian leanings and beliefs, his status as a US Senator, Ron Paul's endorsement of him, and the strong and active launch to his exploratory committee. His strength, position, and decision to run for both the LP and Republican nominations have all helped the LP's prevalence and attention in national discourse increase. On the Republican side, Paul Ryan is coalescing strength from establishment sources, appealing to moderates mainly while alienating countless populists in the party with his rhetoric. He is on the upswing in Iowa, a state he appears devoted to, though he will be fighting an uphill battle to win in the state if the populists or conservatives in Iowa coalesce around a given candidate. Other than this, he is fairly quiet so far in his run. Kanye West is gaining increased attention, thanks to his silence. Despite being highly touted to run, he has been silent for some time and has let Shilling rise as a strong populist in the race. Shilling has taken up a strong swath of Trump's 2016 and 2020 populist energy, and Paul Ryan's attacks on him have only worked to direct Trump 2016 primary voters to Shilling's campaign as a continuation of Trump's populism and rhetoric. Rand Paul has captured much of his 2016 base and some more in the Republican Primary thanks to his active campaign launch. For the General, Democrats are holding steady, while Shilling's rise has begun to weaken the Republican Party only further. The LP, as mentioned, is rising by the day. New Democratic Primary Scheduling: Today, the DNC, in collaboration and communication with various state parties, released to the media and Democratic candidates a new schedule for the Primary season. The most important piece of information was the removal of the Iowa Caucuses as the very first contest, as was highly anticipated and rumored. Iowa, under the new schedule, is being moved to Super Tuesday on March 5th, with New Hampshire becoming the very first contest on February 6th, with a long gap following New Hampshire, leading up to the Nevada Caucus on February 24th, and the South Carolina Primary on February 26th. Meanwhile, the states of New York, Ohio, Georgia, Kentucky, and Wisconsin, with their importance removed in 2020 thanks to COVID-19 and Biden's dominance in the Primary following Super Tuesday, will be moving their primaries to Super Tuesday to regain importance. For the LP and Republican Primaries, little change is expected in their schedules, and the Republican Party seems intent to keep the tradition of the Iowa Caucuses alive, maintaining the state as first in their calendar. Polling Data: Democratic Field: Governor Andrew Cuomo: 27% Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: 20% Senator Joe Kennedy III: 14% Ralph Northam: 6% Marianne Williamson: 3%(Decrease caused by AOC's inclusion) Cenk Uygur: 3% Undecided: 27% Polling Data: Democratic Field - New Hampshire : Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: 25% Governor Andrew Cuomo: 22% Senator Joe Kennedy III: 19% Ralph Northam: 5% Marianne Williamson: 5% Cenk Uygur: 4% Undecided: 20% Polling Data: Democratic Field - Nevada : Governor Andrew Cuomo: 27% Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: 26% Senator Joe Kennedy III: 12% Ralph Northam: 6% Cenk Uygur: 4% Marianne Williamson: 3% Undecided: 22% Polling Data: Libertarian Field Version 1: Polling Among Registered Party Members: Former Congressman Justin Amash: 50%(Decline caused by Paul's entrance, not because of poor campaigning or any other mistake) Senator Rand Paul: 27% Former Governor Bill Weld: 19% Undecided: 4% Polling Date: Libertarian Field Version 2: LNC Delegate Poll: Justin Amash: 44% Senator Rand Paul: 32% Bill Weld: 22% Undecided: 2% Polling Data: Republican Field: Former Congressman Paul Ryan: 16% Kanye West: 13%(Increase thanks to media attention spurred by silence) Curt Shilling: 10% Senator Rand Paul 5% Undecided: 56% Polling Data: Republican Field - Iowa: Former Congressman Paul Ryan: 16% Kanye West: 15% Curt Shilling: 11% Senator Rand Paul 7% Undecided: 52% Polling Data: Republican Field - New Hampshire: Former Congressman Paul Ryan: 17% Curt Shilling: 13% Kanye West: 12% Senator Rand Paul 5% Undecided: 53% General Election Polling(Generic Ballot): Democrats: 45% Republicans: 34% Libertarians: 13% Undecided: 8%
  10. I am sorry for the lack of polling today. As I mentioned, I have been busy the past couple of days, however tomorrow will be the last day in this period of my absence as a fully attentive DM. I do not believe that I will be able to release polling tonight, so stay tuned for tomorrow. The second turn is prolonged until 12 AM EST on Monday morning,
  11. The first turn will officially end at 12 AM EST, and the second turn will begin. I will have polling updates out sometime tomorrow.
  12. I do not want to give the impression that I am uninterested in maintaining a strong schedule for this RP. I do, however, I also want to make sure that everyone who is able to can launch their campaigns or exploratory committees. That is why I am giving everyone who has not(and has not given fair messaging as to why) one more day until 12 A.M EST tomorrow mornig to launch their campaigns. This time can also be used for other candidates to finish their events. Thank you.
  13. I am requesting a minor endorsement from Deepak Chopra

  14. The end of the first turn is hereby delayed for 24 hours to allow for everyone to finish their events and for those who have not started working on them. As a note: I will be busy the next couple of days, so though I'll still be able to effectively moderate and run the RP, I would like to request a couple of things just to keep things moving smoothly. Firstly, please ask for endorsements in one go. It works a lot better for me if I can approve all of your requested endorsements in one go. Next, try and request your endorsements as early as you can in the day. That way, you won't miss out on your endorsements for a turn because I wasn't able to approve your's in time. Finally, just keep making great events and excellent Role-playing.
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