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About Entrecampos

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    Political Hack

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  1. I have extrapolation model for each state, but i'm doing improvements, so I did only put the sure states. Next week I will put again with all states colorful.
  2. Hello,This is my UK prediction with today projection and near future (1 month) projection if the actual trends detected by model keep happening. I make poll of polls as the title says, using reference data from last 32 official polls of every aproached nation, as seen in websites like Wikipedia, after I use a mathematical model to determine the predicted results. I made retro tests with past elections, and I improved the prediction model very much. Now it's very efficient, I can give some examples: My model vs. Real Clear Politics in past USA Elections since 2004: Bush 2004: 49.0% vs. 48.9% Kerry 2004: 47.8% vs. 47.4% Obama 2008: 51.9% vs. 52.1% McCain 2008: 45.0% vs. 44.5% Obama 2012: 48.5% vs. 48.8% Romney 2012: 47.7% vs. 48.1% Trump 2016: 44.1% vs. 43.6% Clinton 2016: 46.5% vs. 46.8% My Total Error (REPS+DEMS) vs. RCP aggregate polls error: I did better than RCP in every election. Portuguese retro predictions for 2019 with the actual model, 0.28% mean error in every party: I can post here United Kingdom and USA predictions every month that can be useful for scenarios. My Political personal Twitter is also in Portuguese, but I can do another Twitter page in english and share here if you want and show interest, anyway it's easy to understand the results by the party names and values in %.
  3. Yes, instead I'm doing 2017 mayoral elections That happened in Portugal, every mayor and municipality, 5 entire districts are finished already.
  4. I created a pseudo-D'Hondt semi-model. Not perfect (like in Portalegre) but useful... I will explain later how this pseudo-model works.
  5. I made some progress in defining the seats, Lisbon District, the biggest of all districts means 48 seats in reality. I created 48 different seats in Lisbon area. I will show what is included in a map (not the map that I will use in final phase, it's only for informative reasons here). Portugal Informative Map with number of MPS and with the name of Districts: A = Azores B = Madeira C = Oporto (40 instead of 48 showed) D = Setúbal E = Beja F = Évora G = Portalegre H = Foreign (Europe+Rest of World) I = Santarém J = Leiria K = Castelo Branco L = Coimbra M = Aveiro in North and Algarve in South (My mistake using the same M) N = Viseu O = Guarda P = Bragança Q = Vila Real R = Braga S = Viana do Castelo 48 Is Lisbon District Lisbon District Informative Map with number of MPS, names of municipalities and registered voters: A: Lourinhã+Cadaval+Azambuja = 52.837 B: Torres Vedras = 68.231 C: Mafra+Sobral de Monte Agraço = 74.041 D: Alenquer+Arruda dos Vinhos = 46.590 E: Vila Franca de Xira = 113.348 F: Loures = 168.563 G: Sintra = 318.983 H: Cascais = 177.498 I: Oeiras = 146.733 J: Amadora = 145.142 K: Odivelas = 126.444 L: Lisbon = 483.087 Lisbon Municipality, each color represents 1 MP and parishes of Lisbon:
  6. Madeira and Azores were present in all elections since Carnage Revolution. We are indecisive between a simpler map: Or a complex map with all 308 municipalities clickable (a bit megalomaniac maybe): mapgood3.bmp map.bmp
  7. I did only seen that now, well, 1911-1926 are out of perspective, lack of reliable data about those elections. And I'm not interested at all in those. Although would be very interesting to do 1958 Presidential Elections in Estado Novo for example (I will not do). About what you said in bold I'm not sure about it. I'm trying different ideas, one of them is to divide districts by number of mp's inside. And reducing the value of biggest parties progressively. Another is to do a Portuguese division of 230 invented subregions. Another is to do 460 mps Parliament (double of 230), that would result at least in 1 MP by municipality. Another is to forget seats and use seats to describe the number of winning municipalities.
  8. Hey Ido, we use D'Hondt system in our elections, do you think that you can modify your system to be useful for Portugal elections? I would thank you very much if you could do that!
  9. I'm doing a Portugal mod with a friend of mine that will have multi legislative elections in the same scenario. Of course 2019 is the main focus and the most balanced scenario. I would say 2019 main scenario is at 60% in this moment. 2015 mini-scenario at 10%. The others need more time. Maybe I will send the files when 2019 scenario is completed even if the other mini-scenarios aren't. The scenario will have 22 main regions (districts+foreign) and more than 308 subregions (municipalities+foreign). The mps will be showed in a total of 230.000 seats, the municipalities won will be showed as well, 1 seat each subregion. So Lisbon city population that means 12 mps, is represented as 12.001 total seats. That would mean that PS that won 2019 elections would have 106.000 seats + number of municipalities won. All parties that participated in 2019 elections are represented. Some Images and profiles of the most important politicians:
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