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Posts posted by Berg2036

  1. I honestly do not believe there is a democrat who will be able to beat Trump. Heres why, look at 2012 Santorum launched just enough attacks on Romney to the point where Romney couldnt pull the far right to him and win. Now that year there were only 7 serious candidates and the attacks caused a lot of damage. Bring that to nearly 20 candidates and  well you have a progressive walk out of the convention and moderates are turned off, a moderate walks out of the convention progressives are turned off. Currently there is no Democrat who will be able to beat Trump, the Muller Investigation is still going on yes, but what have they got so far, two convictions? (Not related to collusion) disclaimer im a moderate republican who wishes trump had run as his party for 20+ years which was the democratic party. I believe hes going to win because of the ugly primary that is waiting for Democrats. Amy Klobuchar who is my senator has probably the best shot at coming close and no one else. 

  2. I'm thinking of doing a scenario for MN - 3 because it is going to be one of the more expensive races in Minnesota and be one of the deciding districts for who controls the house of representatives. I made a map but it is not very good because there are some very small towns that are hard to draw in. What do you think, is it worth doing if I cant get all the towns or should I still do it with the populations adjusted in the regions? 

  3. I think Mn(2) is closer than 54% - 46% its truly a tossup even though none of the handicappers have it anything close to that. With Tim Pawlenty on the ballot for governor and Trumps Rally in Duluth last month which spurred a huge uptick in fundraising for Pete Stauber and Housely who according to her campaign raised more than a million. Also Tina Smith is quite unknown across that state, as is Housley but who ever gets onto the airwaves first will be the next senator and as for cash on hand that are practically tied, unlike MN(1) where Jim Newberger probably has not even raised more than $200,000. 

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