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About avatarmushi

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    Political Monster

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  1. avatarmushi

    Democratic Victory Flow Chart

    I meant that Warren, Sanders, Klobuchar, Harris, Booker, etc. have all lead in polls while lacking net positive favorability, let alone 50%. Biden has consistently lead Trump by near double digits and is barely above 50%. Hillary came within 80,000 votes of winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and thus the presidency in spite of being consistently in the low 40s/high 30s. Net favorability would be better or at least a comparison between candidates. Trump and Hillary having the same ratings. Bush and Kerry as well as Obama and Romney. It also leaves out economic concerns. If the economy tanks and takes Trumps approval with it, a Democrat with <50% favorability could still be more popular by double digits.
  2. avatarmushi

    Democratic Victory Flow Chart

    I feel like "does the candidate have a 50%+ favorability" should be rephrased to be more relative to Trump's approval. If Trumps approval is at or near his lower levels, based off of gallup and morning consult's state level polling, he'd be below 50 in over 30 states, including Texas, Georgia, and Ohio. If a Democratic candidate needs 50%+ to win, Trump has already been re-elected.
  3. avatarmushi

    2020 Scenario Update: Klobuchar (2/10/19)

    On question 1, I think she is better than Warren, Booker, and Gilibrand. I'm not sure about compared to Harris.
  4. avatarmushi

    December Poll for 2020

    Answers to 2 and 3 depend on the economy. If there is a crash Pence loses big, or Trump loses nomination. I also don't see a scenario where Trump gets hit hard enough by the Mueller Investigation to lose 20 GOP senators and Pence is not implicated enough to go down with him.
  5. avatarmushi

    My Initial Midterm Reactions

    https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1060276682819584000 I know you said pollsters, but the forecasts were roughly 94% correct.
  6. avatarmushi

    Trump's Leadership, Charisma, Integrity

    I've always felt like spin would cover that, but I'm not sure what else there would be.
  7. avatarmushi

    Trump's Leadership, Charisma, Integrity

    For some reason in Vcczar's 2020 campaign i've found that if I change Trump's integrity and experience down to 2 & 3 respectively and simulate Biden V.S. Trump, Biden regularly breaks 500 EVs and 65% popular vote with a good Trump performance having him break 40%. While I wouldn't say that result is impossible I don't think it make sense as an average. If these results continued to the official 2020 campaign I feel like it would call for what is effectively a 1.5 integrity score. It also kind of depends on how much of a difference the change from 1-5 to 1-10 is for integrity scandals.
  8. avatarmushi

    Trump's Leadership, Charisma, Integrity

    5 Leadership 7 Charisma 1 or 2 integrity if we are talking about realism, however I put a three from a purely gameplay perspective.
  9. avatarmushi

    Your Senate 2018 predictions (Relates to CI :) )

    OH: Brown by 14 MN(s): Smith by 13 WI: Baldwin by 12 WV: Minchin by 9 NJ: Menendez by 8 MT: Tester by 6 ND: Cramer by 6 TX: Cruz by 4 AZ: Sinema by 4 FL: Nelson by 3 IN: Donnelly by 3 MO: McCaskill by 2 TN: Blackburn by 2 NV: Rosen by 2
  10. avatarmushi


  11. avatarmushi

    What is this sim result?

    I was using the simulator for the official 2016 election and somehow got this result If i understand this correctly, Trump won 483-49, meaning he won California, while losing the popular vote 41-49. Is this the largest difference anyone has seen. And what could this map realistically look like?
  12. avatarmushi

    Trump and Obama by the Numbers

    Thank you for at least not using Don Jr.'s amateur photoshop.
  13. avatarmushi

    I hope this scenario doesn't play out

    How did MN vote?
  14. avatarmushi

    Your News Sources

    I Rarely use any one source very often. Really the only sites that would be 5x per week would be Political Wire and 538 Places like the Washington Post, and the Economist are more what I go to for info on topics, as opposed to for them directly. PBS, CBS, and BBC for the more "watching the news" kind of thing(though not 5x per week) I do go to more obviously biased places like the Daily Kos and various subreddits for either just a quick look at current events or things like polls, activism, etc.
  15. avatarmushi

    App to redraw the states

    1 County (La in Texas)