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crazysportsdude

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About crazysportsdude

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    Political Hack
  1. The Perfect 2020 Simulation

    Eh, I've decided to redo this with everyone declared from the beginning.
  2. The Perfect 2020 Simulation

    MARCH UPDATE Trump - 65% Kasich - 9% Sasse - 7% Corker - 6% Flake - 6% Biden - 28% Sanders - 12% Harris - 9% Booker - 8% Steyer - 7% Kerry - 6% McAuliffe - 5% Gillibrand - 5% Brown - 4% Hickenlooper - 3% (I left Trump and Delaney as declared, and left everyone else as undecided or not seeking, and Biden was the only one who declared out of 20+ ... might have to redo with everyone declared) Mar 1 - Biden wins South Carolina, Republican Minority Leader Paul Ryan says he will consider not voting for Trump Mar 4 - Trump sweeps Super Tuesday, Biden wins (almost) all states as well Mar 8 - Biden wins Kansas & Nebraska Mar 10 - Garcetti and Bullock withdraw (not that they were declared anyway) Post Super Tuesday Update - Trump still unopposed, Biden's only declared competition is Delaney, and both are cruising towards the nomination, so there will be less primary updates. Mar 11 - Trump Locks Up Nomination Mar 17 - Sasse, Flake, Corker, McAuliffe, Harris, Gabbard, Steyer, Hickenlooper, and Klobuchar withdraw. A Biden v Trump General Election is now all but certain. Mar 17 - Biden wins Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, and Ohio Mar 22 - Trump Gun Control Town Hall Mar 24 - Kaich withdraws, as well as Booker & Brown Mar 25/29 - Biden wins Arizona, Utah, Alaska, Washington, & Idaho Mar 29 - Trump North Korea Speech Mar 31 - Gillibrand/Kerry Withdraw
  3. The Perfect 2020 Simulation

    February Begins Trump - 50% (DECLARED) Kasich - 11% Sasse - 7% Cruz - 7% Flake - 5% Corker - 5% Biden - 26% (DECLARED) Sanders - 13% Harris - 10% Booker - 7% Steyer - 7% Kerry - 5% McAuliffe - 5% Gillibrand - 5% Brown - 4% Hickenlooper - 3% Patrick - 3% GENERAL ELECTION Democrats - 51% (326 EV) Republicans - 40% (212 EV) Feb 4 - Trump dominates unopposed in Iowa, Delaney (the only other actually declared candidate) shocks Biden Feb 8 - Kobach rejected by Senate Feb 10 - Trump fires Chief of Staff Kelly Feb 12 - Trump (still unopposed) wins New Hampshire, and Delaney edges out Biden Feb 18 - Chafee, O'Malley withdraw Feb 23 - Trump takes So Car, Biden wins Nevada, Giuliani confirmed as AG Feb 25 - Cruz withdraws from consideration, endorses Trump Feb 26 - Trump wins Nevada, Biden holds Gun Control Town Hall Feb 28 - Report: Steve Bannon in talks with White House for official role
  4. The Perfect 2020 Simulation

    REPUBLICAN Trump - 54% Kasich - 11% Cruz - 11% Flake - 7% Sasse - 7% Corker - 6% DEMOCRATIC Biden - 27% Sanders - 15% Harris - 11% Booker - 7% Steyer - 7% Kerry - 5% McAuliffe - 5% Gillibrand - 5% Brown - 4% Hickenlooper - 3% Patrick - 3% GENERAL ELECTION Democrats - 51% (274 EV) Republicans - 46% (264 EV) Jan 2 - Trump endorsed by Sarah Palin Jan 3 - Cruz Scandal Jan 5 - Warren endorses Biden Jan 9 - North Korea fires missile test while Pence is in South Korea Jan 10 - Trump Tweets "Rocket Man has fired his last missile" Jan 11 - Sessions resigns after internal conflict Jan 13 - Another fringe candidate expected for AG replacement Jan 14 - Kushner indicted Jan 17 - Kasich labels himself as the "Never Trump" candidate Jan 20 - Report: Sheriff Arpaio was nominee for AG, but McConnell warned he wouldn't make it through confirmation Jan 22 - Some Dems skip Trump's SOTU Jan 24 - Report - Kelly threatened to step down when Trump floated Roy Moore as AG Jan 27 - Likely nominees float vision for environment Jan 28 - Kris Kobach is the AG nominee
  5. The Perfect 2020 Simulation

    DECEMBER BEGINS Republican Trump - 41% Kasich - 12% Cruz - 10% Flake - 6% Sasse - 6% Corker - 5% Democratic Biden - 27% Sanders - 13% Harris - 10% Booker - 7% Steyer - 6% Kerry - 5% McAuliffe - 5% Gillibrand - 4% Hickenlooper - 4% Brown - 4% General Election Democrats - 49% Republicans - 39% Dec 1 - Clinton endorses Biden Dec 2 - Republican controlled Senate narrowly confirms Bolton Dec 15 - Biden endorsed by Markey Dec 21 - Progressive Forum, Sanders has momentum Dec 26 - Pope Francis makes veiled Trump attack
  6. The Perfect 2020 Simulation

    NOVEMBER BEGINS Republican Trump - 40% Kasich - 13% Cruz - 11% Corker - 9% Flake - 5% Sasse - 5% Democrat Biden - 25% Sanders - 12% Harris - 10% Booker - 7% Steyer - 6% Kerry - 6% Gillibrand - 4% McAuliffe - 4% Hickenlooper - 4% Brown - 3% Patrick - 3% General Election Democrats - 46% Republicans - 39% Nov 8 - Trump announces US will leave NAFTA Nov 9 - Congress denounces Trump's NAFTA move Nov 10 - Corker Scandal (War on Drugs) Nov 17 - Sanders, Gabbard call Trump mentally unfit for office Nov 18 - Trump Scandal (Russia) Nov 21 - Report: Trump to pick "fringe candidate" to replace Tillerson as Sec of State Nov 26 - John Bolton is Trump's pick as secretary of state Nov 28 - Successful drone strike in Syria, Trump takes credit
  7. The Perfect 2020 Simulation

    OCTOBER Potential Republican Candidates - Trump (duh), Cruz, Kasich, Corker, Sasse, Flake Hypothetical Poll (If All Run) Trump - 36 Cruz - 10 Kasich - 10 Other - 3 Undecided - 40 Potential Democratic Candidates - Biden, Sanders, Harris, Gillibrand, Brown, Booker, McAuliffe, Patrick, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper, Edwards, Gabbard, Chafee, Bullock, Kerry, Steyer, Garcetti, O'Malley, Delaney Hypothetical Poll (If All Run) Biden - 14 Sanders - 10 Harris - 8 Booker - 7 Gillibrand - 4 McAuliffe - 3 Kerry - 3 Steyer - 3 Other - 9 Undecided - 40 General Election Democrat - 31 Republican - 29 Undecided - 40 Also of note, the Libertarian candidate is Adam Kokesh, and the Green candidate is Jill Stein, and both are polling at less than a half percent right now. AND SO IT BEGINS I am using VCCzar's 2020 mod Oct 3 - Paul Ryan admits Obamacare will never be repealed Oct 6 - Terrorism attacks in Africa Oct 7 - Graham calls on Trump to intervene in Africa Oct 8 - Dems split on Africa intervention & Trump tweets that he "won't pull a Bush" Oct 11 - Carter Page indicted Oct 12 - House Dems (majority now) call for impeachment, Trump calls it a witch hunt Oct 13 - 4/5 potential R candidates (Corker, Kasich, Flake, Sasse, not Cruz) call for impeachment Oct 15 - Biden wins Dem Debate, Klobuchar & Sanders also with good showings. Delaney only negative score Oct 16 - Trump calls renegade R's "traitors" Oct 21 - Report: Dems to schedule impeachment hearing Oct 23 - Putin visits White House
  8. 2020 simulation

    August Polling Update GOP Trump - 68.8% (2254 delegates) Kasich - 8.9% (37 delegates) Haley - 5.1% (75 delegates) Paul - 4.8% (40 delegates) DEM's - 2383 to win Clinton - 18.7% (3389 delegates) Harris - 10.1% (362 delegates) Sanders - 9.6% (59 delegates) Biden - 8.9% (141 delegates) Franken - 6.4% (27 delegates) Klobuchar - 5.7% (37 delegates) Gillibrand - 5.4% (291 delegates) Booker - 4.6% (72 delegates) Bullock - 4.2% (14 delegates) Warren - 4.2% Castro - 4% (251 delegates) Murphy - 3.2% (87 delegates) Cuomo - 2.3% Kander - 1.7% (35 delegates) Hickenlooper - 1.3% Chafee - .8% Kaine - .6% O'Malley - .6% Libertarian - 1144 to win Kokesh - 43.5% (886 delegates) Petersen - 38.1% (1249 delegates) GENERAL ELECTION - 270 to win Democrats - 45.5% (310 Electoral Votes) Republicans - 41.7% (186 Electoral Votes) Libertarians - 0.9% Kanye West - 0.8% Jill Stein - 0.3% Undecided - 10.5% (42 Electoral Votes)
  9. 2020 simulation

    July 8 Crystal Ball Rankings UD - undecided NS - not seeking GOP 1) Trump 2) Kasich (UD) 3) Haley (NS) 4) Paul (NS) DEM 1) Clinton (NS) 2) Harris (UD) 3) Klobuchar (UD) 4) Bullock (UD) 5) Franken (NS) 6) Sanders (UD) 7) Booker (NS) 8) Murphy (NS) 9) Castro (UD) 10) Kander (UD) 11) O'Malley 12) Gillibrand (NS) 13) Biden (NS) 14) Cuomo (NS) 15) Kaine (NS) 16) Warren (NS) 17) Hickenlooper 18) Chafee LIB 1) Petersen (NS) 2) Kokesh News July 2 - Mitch McConnell endorses Rand Paul (R) July 9 - Clinton declares her candidacy July 18 - Hickenlooper Scandal July 20 - O'Malley Scandal July 21 - Trump endorsed by Sheldon Adelson July 22 - Petersen declares his bid for the Libertarian nomination July 25 - Kamala Harris enters campaign July 28 - Trump endorsed by George H W Bush August 2 - Clinton Scandal August 4 - Trump endorsed by George W. Bush August 5 - Clinton Scandal
  10. 2020 simulation

    My 2020 election simulation. THE CANDIDATES REPUBLICAN Donald Trump - Declared John Kasich - Undecided Rand Paul - Not Seeking Nikki Haley - Not Seeking DEMOCRAT Martin O'Malley - Declared Lincoln Chafee - Declared John Hickenlooper - Declared Steve Bullock - Undecided Amy Klobuchar - Undecided Kamala Harris - Undecided Julian Castro - Undecided Jason Kander - Undecided Bernie Sanders - Undecided Cory Booker - Not Seeking Chris Murphy - Not Seeking Al Franken - Not Seeking Joe Biden - Not Seeking Elizabeth Warren - Not Seeking Hillary Clinton - Not Seeking Kristen Gillibrand - Not Seeking Tim Kaine - Not Seeking Andrew Cuomo - Not Seeking LIBERTARIAN Adam Kokesh - Declared Austin Petersen - Not Seeking GREEN Jill Stein - Declared INDEPENDENT Kanye West - Declared JULY 1st polling GOP Trump - 61% Kasich - 8% Paul - 6% Haley - 5% DEM's (Minimum 5 percent) Clinton - 17% Sanders - 10% Harris - 8% Biden - 7% Booker - 5% Gillibrand - 5% Castro - 5% LIB Kokesh - 40% Petersen - 40% General Election Democrats - 40% Republicans - 28% Libertarians - 1% Kanye - 1% Stein - 0%
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