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About LegolasRedbard

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    Political Guru
  • Birthday 08/29/2002

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    East Renfrewshire, United Kingdom
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    Elections, simulations, Rangers, Queen, Andy Burnham

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  1. Well, if he's serious, then I think this is ultimately what America deserves. Once you've let one celebrity narcissist become president, the Pandora's Box is open
  2. https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18562149.support-scottish-independence-surges-new-poll-snp-look-set-landslide-victory-holyrood-elections/ With the differences in the Scottish and English response to coronavirus, it seems that the SNP are on course to win a majority in the next devolved elections in 2021, which they argue would be a solid mandate for a second independence referendum, less than ten years after the last one. Why is this? A few reasons are: 1. Perceived incompetence on behalf of the Westminster government in their handling of the coronavirus pandemic, in contrast with the perceived competence of the Scottish Government 2. Dissatisfaction over Brexit, still. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year with or without a solid agreement, the SNP are still holding on to the pro-European votes they picked up at the 2019 general election. 3. Lack of a strong opposition. Scotland's largest opposition party, the Scottish Conservatives, are currently headed by Jackson Carlaw, who has failed to live up to the successes of his predecessor (the well liked Ruth Davidson), despite leading the Scot Tories to a better result in 2019 than they were expecting. The third largest party, Scottish Labour, is currently led by Richard Leonard, a man with the charisma of a damp rag and a socialist hangover from the Corbyn era. 4. Nicola Sturgeon's skills as a strong leader, strong communicator and a perceived honest stateswoman. Taking these at face value, SNP victory in 2021 is practically assured. However, for each of these issues there are counter arguments which mean that this 34 point lead may seem more fragile than it appears on the surface. 1. Scotland's response to coronavirus has been almost identical to England's, except with a better PR team. However, the few vital differences in terms of re-opening may be part of the reason that Scotland is on track to be the worst affected of any European nation in terms of the economy. With Scotland's finances already on the ropes before the crisis, and Scotland's experienced and competent Finance Minister and heir to Sturgeon's throne Derek Mackay out of politics for good, the new finance minister is bracing to hike taxes even further 2. The Brexit argument is pretty much over and by no way the issue it once was with the spread of corona. The SNP's monopoly on pro-EU votes is no longer secured, either. They benefited in 2019 from Labour refusing to take a side on Brexit, and the spectacular failure that was the Lib Dem campaign, but with the new Starmer leadership seeming to go after the SNP more than Corbyn would, and the Lib Dems set to choose a new, more popular, leader those votes could be at risk again. 3. Jackson Carlaw in recent weeks has been bolder in his attacks on Sturgeon, after spending quite a lot of the crisis backing Sturgeon's moves. Despite being denounced as "grubby political opportunism" by Sturgeon, his capitalisation on the schools crisis managed to force an SNP u-turn. It would not be wise to count him out at this stage. On the Labour side, there have been manouevers against Richard Leonard to an extent, and the new Shadow Scotland Secretary Ian Murray has been outspoken in his criticism of the SNP during the crisis. With a new leader, Scottish Labour could rebound yet. 4. Nicola Sturgeon is a strong leader, and a strong communicator. However, a lot of her appeal comes from her perceived integrity and honesty as First Minister. Later this summer, Sturgeon will be called to testify in front of the Scottish Parliament committee on the Alex Salmond affair, under oath. Sources close to all of this seem to suggest that this is going to be... bad for the SNP, to say the least. Sturgeon's position within the SNP has already been under threat in recent months, with MP Joanna Cherry seeming to be on manoeuvres and growing dissatisfaction from the SNP grassroots that the Scot Gov hasn't gone full Catalonia with a wildcat referendum yet. Interesting times, to put it mildly.
  3. I can totally see the Biden and Trump comments happening. That's actually terrifying
  4. I think Biden's decision to limit himself to a black woman solely for the sake of the times we're in was a poor idea, if one that was electorally understandable. Elizabeth Warren would have been the best choice in my opinion, someone with experience but also getting that progressive turnout high. The fact that quite a lot of Biden's support comes from people voting AGAINST Trump rather than FOR him is something that he needs to address, and I still think Warren would be the best candidate for that. Kamala Harris - Reluctantly, she is probably the best of the line up that's been presented here. She's a strong debater who I think will be no match for Pence in the Vice Presidential debate, and since it's pretty much confirmed Biden will be a one term President it will provide her the opportunity to entrench herself as a President-in-waiting, if Biden wins that is. She is one of the better known Senators (speaking as someone from another country.) However, her biggest issue IMO is her record as Attorney General. The "I've always been a progressive prosecutor" shtick isn't convincing, indeed a whole road to Damascus moment in which she denounced some of the stuff she had done in the past would have been more convincing. Unless she does work on coming up with a defence to that, she could hinder more than she helps. Also, she's close to Biden politically, and I doubt she can capitalise on this crisis as much as someone more progressive could. Val Demings - Now, of all the picks this would by my favourite option, but not the one I would recommend. I'm always a firm believer that the Democrats have to park their tanks on the Republicans lawn when it comes to law and order. Tough on crime but tough on the causes of crime, and all that. To that end, having a former chief of police with experience on dealing with the system of policing, and with legislative experience in the House, makes her a strong candidate to take on Trump and Pence when they inevitably go down the "law and order" route. But, if Biden chooses a cop, he will be eaten alive. The BLM movement has already proven that it's not going to be boxed in by any conventional political divides: it's not as loyal to the Democrats as some people seem to claim it is, and I am sure they will turn on him if he chooses her. Additionally, she is a virtual non-entity when it comes to name recognition, and if we're running on the assumption that Biden either doesn't seek a second term, or leaves office during his first, I don't think she's ready for President yet. Perhaps a run for Senate could do her good? Or, a run for Governor where she can make an impact on Florida and run on that record. Keisha Lance Bottoms: She has done a good job of handling the Atlanta protests, and her decision to stand up to the insanity that is rapid reopening during corona. Thoughtful and measured, I get the feeling she always thinks before she speaks, which is in contrast to the current president, and to an extent Biden himself. But, at the same time, I feel like she would be wasted as Vice President. She's not that widely known and I don't think she has the experience to paint herself as a President-in-waiting. I could see her becoming a national political figure at some stage, but I reckon the best course, for her at least, is to run for governor in the aftermath of the pandemic. Susan Rice: I have very little to say about her, as I don't know much of her, but I feel like whilst she's experienced, she has the wrong kind of experience. A foreign policy expert would be a good pick for someone who needs to build trust on foreign policy issues. That's not Biden's weakness. Biden's weakness is the fact that he seems to project an image of mental decline. Stacey Abrams - No, just no. Could it BE anymore obvious how much she wants the job? I'm generally of the opinion that if you fail to get elected to a position, you should reflect on where you went wrong and wait for a while before running again. You don't act the way she has. She doesn't have the temperament to be Governor, let alone Vice President, and certainly not a President-in-waiting.
  5. That poll was on Twitter, so we can totally discount it. No way it's accurate. YouGov placed it at about 50/50
  6. 1. Where do you live? Just outside Glasgow, Scotland 2. What is your first name? Joel 3. How old are you? 17 4. What caused you to get interested in politics and the President Infinity games? For the 270soft games, this review - https://drseansdiary.wordpress.com/2015/02/20/use-your-ed-how-i-put-miliband-into-number-10-just/ (It's amazing to see how much better Prime Minister Infinity has gotten in the past 4 years!) 5. Name one thing interesting about yourself. I play the trombone!
  7. I'm not sure either, but the one thing I can guarantee is it'll be a woman, since John McDonnell and others have argued that it's time for one. Although Keir Starmer is still the bookies favourite, the Corbynites are bigging up Rebecca Long-Bailey as their candidate. Unfortunately for her, she doesn't come across well, especially on the TV, and has cultivated a reputation as being generally useless (Some Blairite Labour MPs came up with the nickname "Wrong Daily" and boy has it stuck) The other real prospects are Laura Pidcock and Angela Rayner. Pidcock is another Corbyn acolyte, and is that much of a socialist she refuses to socialise with Tory MPs and has gone on record calling them the "enemy" (she also was one of the many MPs who recently condemned the use of inflammatory language) I don't rate her chances, as I reckon she'd be as much of a disaster as Corbyn has, ironically for someone with a degree in Disaster Managment. Rayner is the Shadow Education Secretary who left school with no qualifications, but she has a geniune connection with people that the rest of them lack. Also, she's on the softer left of the party, which makes her more palatable to a lot of people than the hard left cranks currently in charge, including myself.
  8. Lisa Raitt campaigns against Jagmeet Singh in Burnaby South "If recent polling shows anything, it's that the Conservatives are the best placed challengers to Jagmeet Singh and the NDP. Not only has Singh abandoned his principles and gone against his word to stand in a seat that he felt a "genuine connection to" and has come here to Burnaby thinking that he can take your vote for granted come October. The NDP and the Liberals are both on the same page when it comes to tax reform - they both want to raise taxes, increasing the tax burden on us all. As Andrew Scheer said earlier, we pledge a Universal Tax Cut, benefiting everyone in Canada, rather than taking even more money out of our pockets."
  9. Totally ridiculous statement to be honest. Roosevelt was in power for 12 years whilst we had a Conservative-led government, the majority of New Labour's time in office was with Bush Jr as President. Good video though! Although they didn't really touch on it, it seems to me (as a Scot) that a lot of Scottish people are going to vote tactically against the SNP, potentially costing them seats.
  10. Ulster still says no! Never, never, never! All jokes aside, I'm hoping that both the DUP and Sinn Fein lose ground here. The DUP may as well not take their seats either the amount of good they do
  11. If it's not too late, could I claim Lisa Raitt for the Tories?
  12. As much as I want to see the DUP lose, I don't want them to lose if it allows the nationalists to gain a foothold. That being said, tactical voting and focused campaigns have historically been disliked by people in Britain
  13. Despite the opposition's (frankly abhorrent) attempts to stop Brexit, from all accounts it seems that Johnson has something planned. The constant, almost smirking repetition of "we will obey the law, we will also leave on October 31st" I think suggests that they're going to do something big.
  14. If only the opposition in the UK were willing to vote no confidence in Johnson, then they could get rid of him. Of course, however, they are frit, and won't
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