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About LegolasRedbard

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    Political Guru
  • Birthday 08/29/2002

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    East Renfrewshire, United Kingdom
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    Elections, simulations, Rangers, Queen, Andy Burnham

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  1. Despite the opposition's (frankly abhorrent) attempts to stop Brexit, from all accounts it seems that Johnson has something planned. The constant, almost smirking repetition of "we will obey the law, we will also leave on October 31st" I think suggests that they're going to do something big.
  2. If only the opposition in the UK were willing to vote no confidence in Johnson, then they could get rid of him. Of course, however, they are frit, and won't
  3. https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ruth-davidson-set-to-resign-as-scottish-tory-leader-1-4993182 The leader of the Conservative Party in Scotland, Ruth Davidson, is set to quit over both family reasons and due to her opposition to Boris Johnson's course of action on Brexit. This worries me. I'm not a major fan of the Tories, but Ruth Davidson has made the party popular in Scotland, which was once seen as inconceivable, and has held the Scottish Tories together and fought tooth and nail for the union for the last eight years. I'm seriously worried that the next leader won't be able to stand up to Sturgeon in the way that Davidson has been able to, and that we may in fact be heading for another independence referendum and the break up of the UK.
  4. Agreed, such as with Boris here in the UK.
  5. (Will take this up later, have to go)
  6. 2:00 AM update: Gerry Adams loses Belfast West to the SDLP, coming third Conservatives and Labour tied for 123, Alliance on 70
  7. BREAKING NEWS: 1:46 AM Shirley Williams is back, overturning a big Tory majority to win Cambridge
  8. BREAKING NEWS: 1:16 AM Former SDP leader and founding member Roy Jenkins retakes Glasgow Hillhead from Labour
  9. 1:00 AM update: Tories and Labour tied for first place on 64 seats each, Alliance on 27 seats, almost all of these gains. Former Chancellor Denis Healey loses Leeds East Alliance second in terms of national vote - CON - 35%, ALL - 33%, LAB - 27%
  10. Hello, and welcome to Election 87. The polls have closed, and by the end of tonight we'll have a clear vision of who will be leading the country. We're actually just about to have a declaration from the seat of Torbay in the West Country, which has been a major target for the Alliance. Live now to Torbay: "I the returning officer for the Torbay parliamentary constituency do declare... Allason, Rupert (Conservative) - 16,796. Bye, Nicholas (Liberal), 30-" And that's a gain for the Alliance, and a massive gain at that! Obviously, this swing is unlikely to be replicated across the country, but a strong showing for the Alliance here suggests that they're in for a strong result in the West Country, perhaps gaining a dozen seats or more. Labour didn't stand much of a chance here, but at 5.4% and losing their deposit, it's not the best sign for things to come.
  11. FINAL PRE-ELECTION POLL: CON: 28% (-2) LAB: 22% (-3) ALL: 22% (+2) Undecided: 24% And our seat tracker... CON: 269 (-133) LAB: 231 (+22) ALL: 91 (+63) OTH: 24 Undecided 28 This election could be anyone's game. Labour's higher-ups are apparently already planning a potential coalition with the Alliance. The Tories, too are making plans for a deal with the Alliance, however they remain hopeful of victory. The Alliance were not expecting to win this election, or even hold the balance of power. Now they might have to decide whether a Liberal or Social Democrat would lead the next government.
  12. Our seat tracker has some worrisome news for the Conservatives: CON: 320 (-82) LAB: 240 (+41) ALL: 46 (+18) OTH: 26 Undecided: 18 It looks like the Alliance will play the deciding role in this election, either supporting the next government somehow or costing the Conservatives voters over their drift right on national security. Will Neil Kinnock be our next Prime Minister? Another particular point of interest in this election is Northern Ireland. Even though the Tories still support the Anglo-Irish Agreement, all parties aside from the Alliance Party (of Northern Ireland) and the SDLP oppose it in Northern Ireland. If these parties win an absolute majority of the seats in Northern Ireland, and it's clear the majority of the people of Ulster oppose the Agreement, the government may reluctantly abandon it's plan. Additionally, another seat to watch is Belfast West, where the IRA affiliated Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams seeks to hold his seat, despite the IRA's implication in Thatcher's assassination: UUP: 9 SDLP: 3 DUP: 3 SF: 1 ALL: 0 WKP: 0
  13. The election campaign is in full swing now, with 36 days to go until the election, and here's our poll of polls: CON: 30% (-3) LAB: 25% (-) ALL: 20% (+2) And if we translate it in terms of seats versus the last election... CON: 340 (-58) LAB: 231 (+22) ALL: 35 (+7) OTH: 25 As the election goes on, things are looking as if they're getting closer, it looks like things are getting quite dicey for the Prime Minister. The Alliance, despite losing votes compared to last time, are set to gain seats. David Owen has been aggressive targeting seats in the West Country and South East, and if our polls are correct, both Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins will return to parliament, with Bill Rodgers polling closely in Milton Keynes.
  14. Election '87 - Background The aftermath of the death of Thatcher led to a very volatile time in British politics. Heseltine, although more moderate than Thatcher had been, was under immense pressure from the right wing of his party to crack down on terrorism and the issues of national security. The IRA, who had been behind the murder of the Prime Minister, must be dealt with. The Cabinet was divided over the response. Heseltine and his allies supported reaching an agreement with the Irish government in order to secure a peaceful end to the Troubles in Northern Ireland, whilst the right of the party have been making noises towards... harsher action. Cecil Parkinson, back in the cabinet after his resignation over his affair with Sara Keays, fired the first shot in the internal Tory civil war over Northern Ireland. Going beyond his remit as Energy Secretary, he plotted behind the Prime Minister's back with Ian Gow and a high ranking member of the Prime Minister's Policy Unit, Oliver Letwin, to develop a hardline law and order plan. The day before the presentation of the draft Anglo-Irish Agreement, agreed between the British and Irish governments, the plan was leaked to the media. The "Letwin Plan" would allow the government to detain suspected paramilitaries for up to 21 days, imposing restrictions on the right to protest. This proved to be popular amongst people who felt like the IRA were getting out of control, and when Heseltine presented the Agreement, which would allow the Irish Republic a say in Northern Irish affairs, many were outraged, as the distinction between the IRA and the nation of Ireland began to become distorted by rage. Heseltine's government faced it's first defeat in the House by allowing a free vote on the ratification of the Agreement, losing by 12 votes as Labour seized on the opportunity to strike a blow to the government. Going into the 1987 election, the major issues facing the government are terrorism, the Anglo-Irish Agreement and law and order. Nationally, the picture is very similar to the start of the 1983 campaign. The decisions Heseltine makes on law and order will determine the whether the Tories maintain this vote. If they move to the left, many Conservative voters will simply not turn out to vote, how much this would damage them remains to be seen. If they move right, they risk losing voters to either Labour, who partially support the tightening of the law seen in the Letwin Plan, or the SDP/Liberal Alliance, who have taken the minority stance of refusing to back any infringement of civil liberties. With 71 days until the election, it's still all to play for.
  15. The Heseltine Cabinet, October 1984 Prime Minister - Michael Heseltine Home Secretary - Norman Fowler Chancellor of the Exchequer - Nigel Lawson Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Tom King Foreign Secretary - Leon Brittan Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster - Viscount Whitelaw Defence Secretary - Geoffrey Howe Education and Science Secretary - Patrick Jenkin Employment Secretary - Tony Newton Energy Secretary - Cecil Parkinson Environment Secretary - Teddy Taylor Transport Secretary - Lynda Chalker Health and Social Security Secretary - Tom King Northern Ireland Secretary - Ian Gow Paymaster-General - Chris Patten Scotland Secretary -- Ian Lang Trade and Industry - Norman Lamont Wales Secretary - Nicholas Edwards By election results (caused by deaths at Brighton) Finchley - Conservative hold Chingford - Conservative hold - John Redwood elected Enfield, Southgate - Michael Portillo elected
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