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Mordechai

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Everything posted by Mordechai

  1. After the conventions, we've conducted polls from all over the country especially in the ever-growing battleground map. Clinton and Sanders supporters seem to be unable to accept their party's nominee and may end up boycotting the election which will hand the presidency to Sen. Cruz quite easily! O'Malley supporters, however, are pledging fellow Democrats to cast their differences aside in order to keep the White House. One O'Malley supporter is quoted say, "it isn't our fault that your candidates ran awful primary campaigns and lost horribly." Clinton supporters, however, aren't happy that their candidate, who won the popular vote, still did not get enough delegates and blame internal sexism within the Democratic Party. This whole drama is, of course, making Republicans very happy. If things remain this way until November, only another O'Malley miracle can save him. POLLS ONLY: POLLS PLUS (weighted average of last five polls): Interesting weird news bit. Uh, so governors support fella governors? Gov. Snyder was quoted saying that he supports O'Malley because of his position on defense spending. Changes in our polls only forecast (weekly) via Imgflip GIF Maker Changes in our polls plus forecast (weekly) via Imgflip GIF Maker
  2. Short summary for in-game August coming up! Hint: in-game Democrats are acting like Democrats IRL. Lots of them are bitter that Clinton and Sanders lost that they're not willing to back their party's candidate, giving Cruz tons of advantage.
  3. --DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION-- KEY... PERSON??? ALERT!! Round 1 - Bernie Sanders is removed from the running and his 936 delegates go to... PRESIDENT: MARTIN O'MALLEY (D-MD) VICE PRESIDENT: ALLISON GRIMES (D-KY)
  4. RNC CONVENTION BOUNCE!!! Can the DNC next week match this? POLLS ONLY (map only includes numbers from polls taken after the RNC) Sooo yeaaah if it stays this way then the Democratic Party is doomed. But hey! Our polls plus analysis says otherwise. This one does a weighted average of the last few polls taken to minimize any event bounce. 66.4% probability of winning the EC isn't huge, but better than what post-RNC polls suggest.
  5. REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION 2016!!! The RNC will begin shortly but first, we have sad news from the Democratic Party. Bernie Sanders has dropped out of the race, leaving the DNC contested between just O'Malley and Clinton. RNC VOTING BEGINS! ROUND 1 - JEB BUSH IS REMOVED FROM THE RUNNING AND HIS 27 DELEGATES GO TO.... DONALD TRUMP!! Cruz - 1095 Trump - 742 Carson - 274 Kasich - 149 Rubio - 125 Fiorina - 86 ROUND 2 - BYE FIORINA! Her 86 delegates go to... MARCO RUBIO! Cruz - 1095 Trump - 742 Carson - 274 Rubio - 211 Kasich - 149 ROUND 3 - Ka-ZILCH! Kasich's 149 delegates go to... MARCO RUBIO! Cruz - 1095 Trump - 742 Rubio - 360 Carson - 274 ROUND 4 - Car-zonk! Carson's 274 delegates go to... MARCO RUBIO!!! Cruz - 1095 Trump - 742 Rubio - 634 This is it. Whomever Rubio endorses will be the Republican Nominee!!!! *drumrolls* *fanfare* TED CRUZ IS THE GOP NOMINEE!!! TED CRUZ PICKS BOB CORKER (R-TN) AS RUNNING MATE Tune in next week for the DNC!
  6. And here's how our maps have evolved in the past four weeks! Polls only (yep, just the polls. No other equations done) via Imgflip GIF Maker Polls plus (weighted average of polls + momentum) via Imgflip GIF Maker
  7. JULY FOURTH! (technically July 7 because I'm still on weekly view) UPDATES: Clinton meets with the FBI to discuss her email scandal. The FBI will not be pressing charges but claims that her handling of classified information was extremely careless. BREXIT! FUN JULY 4TH POLLING UPDATES! Polls only: what latest polls show Our latest poll out of Ohio showed an total tie, while states like North Carolina and Georgia are starting to become sure bets for Democrats. Meanwhile, third party support in Colorado, Montana, and New Mexico and, to some extent, in Utah as well are chipping away support for the two parties. Polls plus: what the trend shows after putting five most recent polls and momentum into the equation We still have Ohio leaning red because out of many polls, only one showed a tie. Our polls plus map also reflects the recent surge of support for third party candidates in New Mexico, Colorado, and Montana. The last time we've seen Georgia red was a few months ago. Good news for Democrats? Well, the last time I saw Iowa and Ohio blue was like in 2012 so whatever, I guess we can say it's pretty fair.
  8. oops sorry! That's the probability that they'll win the EC. The panel on the left displays their chances of winning too, not polls.
  9. Now let's recap: Martin O'Malley - He enjoyed an early momentum surge that helped him reach over a thousand delegates but it wasn't enough to keep him at the top. Hillary Clinton - She was struggling in the beginning but she slowly built up momentum and hit O'Malley hard in the most crucial states. Bernie Sanders - He stayed there all right. Ted Cruz - His early momentum helped him keep his lead but the GOP primaries were such a rollercoaster ride that no one emerged at the top. Donald Trump - his popularity surge late in the game may help him eventually capture the nomination. Who will be the nominees? Only one way to find out. DNC and RNC soon! Meanwhile, let's take a look at fivethirtyeight and see where the national map's at: POLLS ONLY Our latest poll finally had the GOP leading in North Carolina and actually having a decent shot at winning, but the Democrats are also making a play in Georgia and still maintain an electoral college lead, albeit much narrower. POLLS PLUS' But ultimately, our team still believes that the map below is still the most likely scenario.
  10. I FORGOT ABOUT WASHINGTON DC OMG. Anyway, Hillary Clinton is the winner in DC. And she is also the winner in Puerto Rico! And in New Mexico it's Ted Cruz
  11. Home stretch part 2! Puerto Rico (DEM) and New Mexico (GOP) remain too close to call with no clear advantage for anyone. but in South Dakota, Ted Cruz is our projected winner.
  12. And here we are, on the final stretch of this gruelling primary season. Let's start with the Democrats. In California, New Jersey, and Montana, Hillary Clinton is our projected winner. In North and South Dakota, Bernie Sanders is our projected winner! And in New Mexico, Martin O'Malley is our projected winner. In the USVI, it's Hillary Clinton. (final results. Click for full size) Let me repeat, the DNC will be contested And finally, in Puerto Rico, it is too close to call. Now on to the Republican side. Donald Trump is our projected winner in Montana while Ted Cruz is the winner in California and New Jersey. In South Dakota, it is too early to call but Ted Cruz is in the lead. And New Mexico is simply too close to call. Data dump. Click for larger:
  13. OK although we won't be calling states until later, we have enough data to make this MAJOR projection: THE DNC WILL BE CONTESTED NOW THAT BOTH CONVENTIONS WILL BE CONTESTED, THAT BRINGS US TO THIS PARTY GIF: (click for animation!)
  14. Welcome to the month of June! Good news! Private polling of key states is back thanks to a generous donor who gave us $500 million. Anyway, in case y'all have forgotten there are more than two parties and two of those held their mini-convention last week. Although some would argue that they're just two additional Republican Parties, it's good to give the people an illusion of more choices. LIBERTARIAN PARTY: Pres. : GARY JOHNSON (L-NM) VP: RAND PAUL (L-KY) INDEPENDENT: Pres. : EVAN MCMULLIN (I-UT) VP: MINDY FINN (I-TX) And coming up, and it is a yuge one: The final stretch. Will the DNC be contested??? Democratic Primaries and Caucuses: USVI Puerto Rico South Dakota New Jersey California Montana New Mexico North Dakota GOP Primaries: (yeah, we all know it's gonna be contested but eh, for what it's worth, let's view the results) New Jersey New Mexico South Dakota California
  15. As I said earlier, I nerded out too much and ended up having my own fivethirtyeight.com. Left panel: chances of winning in each state Panel directly above the electoral vote count: each party's probability of winning the electoral college. Bar graph: how many times an electoral college combination occurred in a simulation of 500 'elections'. Here's the first map, which I'd call "polls only". This one changes a lot because it's just a simulation of in-game polls and it can be quite inaccurate. **CORRECTION: LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI ARE SHADED WRONG. LA should be dark red while MS is medium red. And here's my version of "polls plus", which is a weighted average of the last five state polls. The most recent one gets the full weight, the next one is weighted at 75%, and then 50%, then 25%, then 1%. It isn't scientific but it's better than the one above. As such, this map changes less and any sudden polling change will have minimal impact on this map. An example would be Indiana, which became light blue for one round in my game, and then reverted back to (light) red. In a case like that, the map above would have Indiana blue while the map below will still have it at red, albeit with a lighter shade.
  16. *many hours later* Oregon is still too close to call, but Hillary Clinton has taken a substantial lead over Bernie Sanders. *many more hours later* We can now call Oregon for Hillary Clinton. *days later* In the Washington GOP Primary, Donald Trump is our projected winner! So y'all, I nerded out too much and became Nate Silver. Nah, I just used a simple excel file to simulate in-game polls and create weighted averages of state polls. I will upload my maps in the next post.
  17. Sooo our private polls in key states have stopped because the illuminati ran out of money. Oh well, I guess we'll just deal with public polls with high margins of error. Anyway, polls have just closed in more states and we're nearing the end of the primary season! Let me repeat: the RNC will be contested and the DNC is on its way to that, too. And y'all it looks like there's a chance that O'Malley may get Bernied by Hillary Clinton. Now on to the uneventful GOP Primary in Oregon! Donald Trump is the winner in Oregon and his margin is YUGE! We have two Democratic primaries and we have a call for one of them. In Kentucky, Hillary Clinton is our projected winner. And in Oregon? It is too close to call between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.
  18. Back to our update! West Virginia is still too close to call. I won't say it's crucial but in a very tight race, I will say that it is! Donald Trump has won Nebraska! *two hours later* We can now call West Virginia for Bernie Sanders! Tune in next for both parties' primaries in Oregon and the Democratic Primary in Kentucky! We are getting closer and closer to the home run.
  19. Hey, so your prediction is correct: The RNC will be contested, but Kasich has already dropped out so idk if he's still allowed to win. I'm not too well-versed when it comes to contested conventions. Your Democratic prediction seems to be on point, though. Hillary and O'Malley are jumping back and forth as the leader but if it continues, they may get a contested convention too. The GOP is already making some ground in my game's electoral map. We'll see how long it'll hold. Here's how it looks like after running my game's polls in a simulator:
  20. It's getting closer and closer to the conventions and we still don't have any clear idea who the nominees are going to be. Anyway, polls have just closed and we have results trickling in. In Guam, Hillary Clinton is our projected winner. Not a big surprise. In West Virginia, as expected, it is too close to call. In Nebraska, it is too early to call but I can tell you that based on our exit polls, Donald Trump is in the lead. And in West Virginia, another upset win by Ted Cruz!
  21. Sooo about Indiana... It looks like our upsetters are back and Ben Carson has dropped out without endorsing anyone. And as I mentioned earlier, our upsetters are back 'bigly'. Ted Cruz and Martin O'Malley will win Indiana! Upcoming!!! Democrats: Guam - Clinton 95% West Virginia - Too close to call Republicans: West Virginia - Likely Trump - 80% Nebraska - Solid Trump - 95%
  22. Popular Vote/Electoral Vote win probabilities: DEMOCRAT - 99.91%/99.80% REPUBLICAN - 0.09%/0.20% Average EV: 330.2/207.8 (please ignore Clinton/Trump on the image) So I noticed that the game was overstating and understating how it labels states so I downloaded a simple excel file to make an election projection model. Here's where the electoral map currently stands. Left panel is each party's chances of winning a state . States to Watch: NV AZ CO TX IA WI MI MS GA FL NC VA OH PA NH ME CT Label: Light blue/red - margin of less than 5% Medium blue/red - margin between 5-10% Dark blue/red - margin of over 10%
  23. Lots of bases to cover so let's begin! Polls have just closed and we have a MAJOR, REALLY MAJOR, projection. Note that this is just a projection and any unexpected event may make us change it. Our decision desk is projecting that the RNC will be contested. ...because Donald Trump is projected to win Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island while Ted Cruz will win Maryland. Here's the current GOP count: Now for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton will sweep ALL of the states and she has now taken the lead for nomination. Current Dem total: NEWS BITS: Evan McMullin, Utah Republican, to run as independent! Upcoming: GOP and Dem primaries in INDIANA Predictions: Dem - Likely Clinton - 80% GOP - Lean Trump - 60%
  24. Short update on something that we already knew. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will easily win the State of New York. Also, the girl is on fire and if Clinton is able to maintain her momentum, the DNC will be contested too! Next update: DEM PRIMARIES: Rhode Island - Bernie Sanders/Clinton - neck and neck polling between the two Connecticut - Leans Clinton - 70% chance Delaware - Solid Clinton - 95% Maryland - ok interestingly, it's Solid Clinton - 91% Pennsylvania - Pennsylvania - Solid Clinton - >99% GOP PRIMARIES: Connecticut - Solid Trump - 97% Maryland - Likely Cruz - 85% Pennsylvania - Leans Trump - 60% Rhode Island - Toss up, slight Trump lead - 51%
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