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About Mordechai

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    Political Guru

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    Southern California
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    Progressive, Working Class Jewish Democrat. Leftist across the board. Moderate on Israel. Supporter of Labor Unions. Californian by circumstances, Israeli by mindset, Illinoisan by birth, and West Virginian by spirit.

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  1. After the conventions, we've conducted polls from all over the country especially in the ever-growing battleground map. Clinton and Sanders supporters seem to be unable to accept their party's nominee and may end up boycotting the election which will hand the presidency to Sen. Cruz quite easily! O'Malley supporters, however, are pledging fellow Democrats to cast their differences aside in order to keep the White House. One O'Malley supporter is quoted say, "it isn't our fault that your candidates ran awful primary campaigns and lost horribly." Clinton supporters, however, aren't happy that their candidate, who won the popular vote, still did not get enough delegates and blame internal sexism within the Democratic Party. This whole drama is, of course, making Republicans very happy. If things remain this way until November, only another O'Malley miracle can save him. POLLS ONLY: POLLS PLUS (weighted average of last five polls): Interesting weird news bit. Uh, so governors support fella governors? Gov. Snyder was quoted saying that he supports O'Malley because of his position on defense spending. Changes in our polls only forecast (weekly) via Imgflip GIF Maker Changes in our polls plus forecast (weekly) via Imgflip GIF Maker
  2. Short summary for in-game August coming up! Hint: in-game Democrats are acting like Democrats IRL. Lots of them are bitter that Clinton and Sanders lost that they're not willing to back their party's candidate, giving Cruz tons of advantage.
  3. --DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION-- KEY... PERSON??? ALERT!! Round 1 - Bernie Sanders is removed from the running and his 936 delegates go to... PRESIDENT: MARTIN O'MALLEY (D-MD) VICE PRESIDENT: ALLISON GRIMES (D-KY)
  4. RNC CONVENTION BOUNCE!!! Can the DNC next week match this? POLLS ONLY (map only includes numbers from polls taken after the RNC) Sooo yeaaah if it stays this way then the Democratic Party is doomed. But hey! Our polls plus analysis says otherwise. This one does a weighted average of the last few polls taken to minimize any event bounce. 66.4% probability of winning the EC isn't huge, but better than what post-RNC polls suggest.
  5. REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION 2016!!! The RNC will begin shortly but first, we have sad news from the Democratic Party. Bernie Sanders has dropped out of the race, leaving the DNC contested between just O'Malley and Clinton. RNC VOTING BEGINS! ROUND 1 - JEB BUSH IS REMOVED FROM THE RUNNING AND HIS 27 DELEGATES GO TO.... DONALD TRUMP!! Cruz - 1095 Trump - 742 Carson - 274 Kasich - 149 Rubio - 125 Fiorina - 86 ROUND 2 - BYE FIORINA! Her 86 delegates go to... MARCO RUBIO! Cruz - 1095 Trump - 742 Carson - 274 Rubio - 211 Kasich - 149 ROUND 3 - Ka-ZILCH! Kasich's 149 delegates go to... MARCO RUBIO! Cruz - 1095 Trump - 742 Rubio - 360 Carson - 274 ROUND 4 - Car-zonk! Carson's 274 delegates go to... MARCO RUBIO!!! Cruz - 1095 Trump - 742 Rubio - 634 This is it. Whomever Rubio endorses will be the Republican Nominee!!!! *drumrolls* *fanfare* TED CRUZ IS THE GOP NOMINEE!!! TED CRUZ PICKS BOB CORKER (R-TN) AS RUNNING MATE Tune in next week for the DNC!
  6. And here's how our maps have evolved in the past four weeks! Polls only (yep, just the polls. No other equations done) via Imgflip GIF Maker Polls plus (weighted average of polls + momentum) via Imgflip GIF Maker
  7. JULY FOURTH! (technically July 7 because I'm still on weekly view) UPDATES: Clinton meets with the FBI to discuss her email scandal. The FBI will not be pressing charges but claims that her handling of classified information was extremely careless. BREXIT! FUN JULY 4TH POLLING UPDATES! Polls only: what latest polls show Our latest poll out of Ohio showed an total tie, while states like North Carolina and Georgia are starting to become sure bets for Democrats. Meanwhile, third party support in Colorado, Montana, and New Mexico and, to some extent, in Utah as well are chipping away support for the two parties. Polls plus: what the trend shows after putting five most recent polls and momentum into the equation We still have Ohio leaning red because out of many polls, only one showed a tie. Our polls plus map also reflects the recent surge of support for third party candidates in New Mexico, Colorado, and Montana. The last time we've seen Georgia red was a few months ago. Good news for Democrats? Well, the last time I saw Iowa and Ohio blue was like in 2012 so whatever, I guess we can say it's pretty fair.
  8. oops sorry! That's the probability that they'll win the EC. The panel on the left displays their chances of winning too, not polls.
  9. Now let's recap: Martin O'Malley - He enjoyed an early momentum surge that helped him reach over a thousand delegates but it wasn't enough to keep him at the top. Hillary Clinton - She was struggling in the beginning but she slowly built up momentum and hit O'Malley hard in the most crucial states. Bernie Sanders - He stayed there all right. Ted Cruz - His early momentum helped him keep his lead but the GOP primaries were such a rollercoaster ride that no one emerged at the top. Donald Trump - his popularity surge late in the game may help him eventually capture the nomination. Who will be the nominees? Only one way to find out. DNC and RNC soon! Meanwhile, let's take a look at fivethirtyeight and see where the national map's at: POLLS ONLY Our latest poll finally had the GOP leading in North Carolina and actually having a decent shot at winning, but the Democrats are also making a play in Georgia and still maintain an electoral college lead, albeit much narrower. POLLS PLUS' But ultimately, our team still believes that the map below is still the most likely scenario.
  10. I FORGOT ABOUT WASHINGTON DC OMG. Anyway, Hillary Clinton is the winner in DC. And she is also the winner in Puerto Rico! And in New Mexico it's Ted Cruz
  11. Home stretch part 2! Puerto Rico (DEM) and New Mexico (GOP) remain too close to call with no clear advantage for anyone. but in South Dakota, Ted Cruz is our projected winner.
  12. And here we are, on the final stretch of this gruelling primary season. Let's start with the Democrats. In California, New Jersey, and Montana, Hillary Clinton is our projected winner. In North and South Dakota, Bernie Sanders is our projected winner! And in New Mexico, Martin O'Malley is our projected winner. In the USVI, it's Hillary Clinton. (final results. Click for full size) Let me repeat, the DNC will be contested And finally, in Puerto Rico, it is too close to call. Now on to the Republican side. Donald Trump is our projected winner in Montana while Ted Cruz is the winner in California and New Jersey. In South Dakota, it is too early to call but Ted Cruz is in the lead. And New Mexico is simply too close to call. Data dump. Click for larger:
  13. OK although we won't be calling states until later, we have enough data to make this MAJOR projection: THE DNC WILL BE CONTESTED NOW THAT BOTH CONVENTIONS WILL BE CONTESTED, THAT BRINGS US TO THIS PARTY GIF: (click for animation!)
  14. Welcome to the month of June! Good news! Private polling of key states is back thanks to a generous donor who gave us $500 million. Anyway, in case y'all have forgotten there are more than two parties and two of those held their mini-convention last week. Although some would argue that they're just two additional Republican Parties, it's good to give the people an illusion of more choices. LIBERTARIAN PARTY: Pres. : GARY JOHNSON (L-NM) VP: RAND PAUL (L-KY) INDEPENDENT: Pres. : EVAN MCMULLIN (I-UT) VP: MINDY FINN (I-TX) And coming up, and it is a yuge one: The final stretch. Will the DNC be contested??? Democratic Primaries and Caucuses: USVI Puerto Rico South Dakota New Jersey California Montana New Mexico North Dakota GOP Primaries: (yeah, we all know it's gonna be contested but eh, for what it's worth, let's view the results) New Jersey New Mexico South Dakota California
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