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About wolves

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    Political Guru

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    Manchester, England
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    Tea, Crumpets, Football and the Queen.

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  1. Michael Fallon Resigns

  2. Bios for Historical Scenarios Poll

    I just came back to 48 notifications, wow. I prefer more regional elections like senate/governor to presidential anyway.
  3. A Better Presidential Response

    No. Though I do not hold any sympathy for white supremacists, a lone wolf attacker doesnt really make up the entire of their representation at that march just as the person who shot Steve Scalise is not representive of Bernie Sanders. It's better to criticise both sides as there were confrontations between both and the lone wolf attacker doesnt mean that an attack should be focused on one side without talking about the other.
  4. 2012 Presidental Election Pt. 3 - General Election Al Franken at a campaign stop in Chicago, Illnois. September 2012. The surprising win of Al Franken in the Democratic primary had stunned the political world. The Reform Party had been guaranteed its federal funding and was polling at 4.8%, close to its target of 5%. The Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson was polling at an abnormal 2%. The third parties seemed to be no threat to both Romney or Gingrich though polls had suggested they were pulling more from Romney. Romney had prepared to face Obama, a challenge he was sweating but he saw Franken as an easy challenge. Romney was moderate enough to appeal to independents and centre-left while Franken didn't inspire the minority vote like Obama did. I mean, Franken didn't even stop Minnesota from being a swing-state, what did Romney have to fear? People in both the DNC and GOP fell in line, endorsing their candidates except Joe Manchin who instead chose to abstain from endorsement. In a leaked off the tape interview with The New Yorker, Manchin admits to the journalist that he felt he had been cheated by the liberal Democratic party and that in reality, he would have won if it wasn't for all the candidates joining forces to attack him in the debates, attacking him excessively with ads. In response, Democratic party officials likened it to a conspiracy theory and Franken made a joke at a rally mocking Manchin, which generated a lot of laughs. This created controversy as Manchin began to speak out even more against Franken, which was uncommon for Manchin. He said he felt insulted by his party and even though he would never leave as he was a "Democrat at heart", he now has justification to not vote with them. Politico pointed out that if we're following senate races, Manchin would basically be the kingpin in the senate as the Presidental election was far off from being a competition, but the senate election was very close. New York Governor, Donald Trump took a weird path and endorsed Reform Party candidate Andre Barnett saying "I can't stand Romney, we've had our differences and Franken, this guy, I can't believe him. He used to make fun of me when I was running for mayor. Do you really think I'm going to touch either of these clowns? No. I'll stick with my allegiances." Trump's popularity among Republicans in the state dropped ten-fold following that, many branding him a traitor though some others saying he stuck up for a "conservative" America despite Trump having pushed through gay marriage months previous and displayed obvious interventionism. The NYT then began to report that though Trump's approvals dropped from 57% to 48%, he actually organized a meeting to talk to Republicans in New York about their choice, persumably to convince them to vote another way . Governor Donald Trump talks to a crowd of New York Republicans, September 2012. In late September, Romney had a scandal about addressing young black working class youth as people who will never vote for him because they refuse to get a job and hes for people who "actually work for a living." Branded a racist and protests began to arise, Franken tried to exploit the crisis though the race didn't get much closer. Franken won the first presidental debate and was able to bring the controversy furthermore to the front of the news. The race still wasn't tight but it was getting more and more fair. Romney lost the next two debates though the race began to spread out once again. There was no way that Franken was going to win this. Most pundits had written him off and 538 said that Romney was going to grab 300+ electoral votes easily. The map one day before the presidental election Franken had basically lost according to polls, was there any chance for him to win? Well. There was certainly a path but it was hard. The battleground states were Iowa, Oregon, Pennslyvania, Indiana, Wisconsin and Minnesota. If he performed a clean sweep of all of those states, he'd most definitely win the election. NBC predicted on the hours before the first polls closed that Romney would get around 290 votes in the electoral college. Franken was interviewed after voting in Minnesota, saying "I know the polls are wrong, theres a silent voter out there for me, then again I'm a liberal" This was a "special election" as Indiana was a swing state, it was close, every close in the polls and people were watching it. If Franken secured this otherwise dark red state, he might have a chance tonight. Franken overtook for the first time in the state when there was 22% of the vote in, his lead then extending before dropping back again to near 50-50. When 48% of the vote was in, Romney overtook Franken 48.5-45 and... then.... Franken overtook again with 71% of the vote in, a fragile lead of barely 20k and 0.9%. Sadly, the rural vote began to pour in following that and NBC called it the saddest end to a close race, Franken lost Indiana by 400,000 votes. The Franken war-room had lost one of the states it needed to perform a sweep to the presidency. It now needed to pick up another state with more than 11 electoral votes. Then, he lost Pennslyvania, 55-44, this was just getting worse for Franken. After losing Wisconsin and then Minnesota, NBC called it for Romney. There was cries on social media from Democrats, cheering from Republicans. The Reform party didn't reach 5% of the vote and the Libertarian party broke new grounds. The GOP will continue to rule the white house for another year, which is sad to say. It's been this way since 2004 and it looked like it wasn't going to stop.
  5. No. Just inactive and lost inspiration mainly. It's effort writing these posts. I'll be back to finish it though, I'm nearly done with it anyway.
  6. France

    I would dig this more but its departments and France has 102 departments.
  7. 2018 Pennsylvania Governor Race

    They were always against him for his foreign policy like with his stances on NATO. Healthcare is hilarious really, I couldn't imagine McCain being any better, he'd probably put bombing people in Syria over the lives of domestic citizens.
  8. 2018 Pennsylvania Governor Race

    These moderate Republicans opposed him during the 2016 race too for things like his immigration policy and his trade policy, immigration was right wing, his trade policy was left.
  9. 2018 Pennsylvania Governor Race

    In this game, generally Trump comes out as centre right due to his views on abortion, same sex marriage and free trade. I feel like centre-right would support him more as the reason he won Pennslyvania was centre/centre-right independents/democrats voting for him.
  10. 2018 Pennsylvania Governor Race

    Republicans generally are pretty dumb when it comes to picking someone in states where their message doesnt resonate, I'm not a moderate by any means but Charlie Baker and Chris Sununu are proof that Republicans can pick someone to fit the political climate, sadly, they just don't bother.
  11. Eurosceptic UK

    Most likely the Greens, the Libdems have a large pro immigration stance but even they have gone against complete unfettered immigration in the past.
  12. 1. Most likely Dewey. 2. Probably Clinton or McGovern, Clinton for obvious reasons.
  13. Isolating the state didn't work when I was trying to do it. I'll try later though.
  14. RINO in office (2024 play-by-play)

    This week in politics: Carson drops off, President Baker? And Second GOP debate Welcome to THIS WEEK IN POLITICS, the nations NUMBER 1 political radio show. The GOP primary has been warming up as Ben Carson records nearly a 6% drop in the space of two weeks, going from 21% to 15.7%. Baker has soured ahead in the polls, unexpectedly but still ahead though Vice President Pence is still picking up the most delegates. Pence has begun to make a slow recovery following a bad week and is still seen as a serious contender for the nomination. The second GOP debate was this week and Walker came out ahead like the week beforehand. Baker was considered the second most convincing candidate and Pence third. Carson had a horrrible debate performance with some pundits even describing it as a "melt down" on a large scale. We could expect Secretary Carson to lose a few more points in national polling by the end of next week. And finally, a quick run through the Democratic polling and the General Election polling
  15. 1. Democrats in the state are majority blue working class and are very pro-gun or religious, they tend to veer towards the GOP with disenfranchisement of the DNC. (This is what is happening in WV, can't say I can speak for the rest of them.) 2. Demographics, its as simple as that, I'd say with Alaska, it's nothing really noticable, a 10% drop would be noticable if last election the third party didnt garner 5% in the state. 3. Demographics once again, also a younger population. 4. Maine has a big farmers population and a lot of its college graduates are going to MA and NH for work as there are more provided there. Rhode Island isn't really getting redder but I think Trump's message resonated with a lot of working class but also a lot of middle class people there (though this is a declining population, working class that is) 5. Demographics in all of them except New Hampshire which is just due to people getting richer and more educated. 6. Obama's message? McCain had horrible luck when it came to appealing to blue collar workers, if you look at the exit polls for the 2008 election, you'll find that Obama and McCain were neck and neck. 7. Trump's message, simple. 8. The growing working class and religious movement. 9. Demographics on New Mexico's part and people getting richer/more educated on Oregon's part. 10. Working class appeal on part of Obama. 11. 2008 it was due to working class appeal and in 2012 it was due to his bailing out of the automotive industry. 12. This is harder to answer, Wisconsin had always been a swing state, I'm going to say that due to McCain and Romney's lack of appeal to your common Wisconsin voter. 13. Working class support and dislike of NAFTA. The loss of steel mills, etc, etc, etc. This is common knowledge. 14. No ahaha, maybe Ohio due to the massive win he was able to achieve there and he is actually still approved of there, its the only swing state where his approval is above water actually.