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About servo75

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    Political Guru
  • Birthday 04/09/1975

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    Spokane, WA
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    Independent right-leaning libertarian/conservatarian. Neither Democrat nor Republican. Neither Trump fan nor hater. Former Progressive Democrat and Academic. Way too educated for my own good. Favorite quote by my favorite POTUS:
    "A government big enough to give you everything you want is strong enough to take everything you have." - Thomas Jefferson

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  1. Curious, when will the "beta" become the real thing?
  2. That immediately raises red flags. I'd like to know what their methodology is. When they run a simulation, it has to be based on which candidate has which probability of winning each state. With a sample size this large I have to assume their base probabilities are about equal to the percentage that you're experiencing. Still, where did THOSE probabilities come from? I call bullshit on that. Unless they're conducting a poll per day in each state this can only be subjective. At best, they have to have some formula for translating polling averages (which are questionable to begin with) to probabilities of victory. I'd like to see what that is, too. I also recall, when I ran similar experiments, there being a very large variance in the sample too, I'd like to see what the 95% confidence interval is. These samples seem to have a very high coefficient of variation to them too, which renders such simulation virtually worthless.
  3. Yeah I don't know where they're getting their "seed" probabilities from but I'm not buying this. NV and MI were close states on either end in 2016. You can say Florida and Wisconsin are toss-ups but 66-76%? I would like to know what their methodology for this simulation is. They say they run 1,000 simulations per day. Okay fine but even those simulations have to be based on something. I know they're not conducting 1,000 polls per day, so this would be subjective at best. Though the simulations I ran didn't have anywhere near that big a victory for Trump either. To have such a wide range of outcomes implies too much randomness in the sample. The standard deviation of these results is too high relative to the mean for this to be a reliable experiment.
  4. servo75


    "some sources"? Really...
  5. servo75


    First, I mentioned nothing about systemic racism. Again, please stop telling me I'm saying things that I'm not saying. What I mean by "your way" has nothing to do with that, and I mean you as in the colloquial sense. None of this post was directed at you personally. I mean that when people complain about Trump's personality, his brashness, his in-your-face bully pulpit style, I'm saying the old genteel Marquess-of-Queensbury Republican Party has been ineffective at best. I'm not going to argue whether or not Trump is the solution to that, but really, what has the Republican Party done to combat left-wing policy over the last few decades, reduce spending and the deficit, closing unneeded agencies? Republicans have been too polite for too long and let the Democrats run all over them. You're way over-analyzing what I'm saying to try to get some meaning out of it that I did not intend. And as for Republicans not fixing systemic racism, hmm... I seem to remember a man called Abraham Lincoln, something about a Civil War, and 13th-15th Amendments passed with little Democrat support, and Civil Rights Acts passed, again by Republicans over Democrat filibusters. Maybe if we didn't make fools of ourselves by calling the Editor of the Harvard Law review a Kenyan Muslim instead of engaging on real issues? Idk just a thought. Enough with the whataboutisms already.
  6. servo75


    I think you're taking me way too literally here. I'm making a VERY general point that the Republican Party has failed to stand up for its values for a long time, and that their reaction to the usual charges of "racism" by the left were to apologize for their views so they weren't called bad names by the media. Even if you don't like the rise of Donald Trump, I'm saying he is the symptom, not the disease. 30 years of spineless Republicans who talk conservative values but melt under the hot lights of the Washington establishment. The Republican Party has been in cahoots with the Democrats in sending our jobs overseas, selling us out to the highest bidder. It's really not a complicated statement, I think you're trying to read all this "MAGA" stuff into it which is really not my intent. Huh? Did I say that? I don't recall making such a statement. My point was only that the Democrats always play the race card when Republicans bring up fiscally conservative and small government values, and instead of standing up for those principles they apologize for them to avoid being called mean names. I get that you hate Trump, but please stop trying to read "Trump is the greatest, MAGA MAGA MAGA" between every line I write. It's gotten to the point where you seem to feel a reflexive need to insert insults to the President even when they have nothing to do with the topic I'm bringing up. Please stop with the non-sequitur, I'm losing my patience with this! This whole thread is about trying to find common ground and I sense that you're trying to go out of your way to be argumentative. I'm saying that the GOP has been feckless at best since Reagan left office with the possible exception of Gingrich's speakership in 1995. Nothing more, nothing less. Period.
  7. servo75


    Well, what's the alternative? How else would you make money? Would you plant trees and grow it? How do you start NY business without capital? Whether it's gained through loans, gifts, or winning the lottery, try getting an invention or company off the ground without it. Truth is, without "greed" as so many would put it, so much of the wealth, jobs, and technological innovations we have wouldn't have happened. Using that word is deliberate, I think, to give wealth negative connotations. It's because of income inequality, or more precisely the promise of it, and the pursuit of profit that motivates people. And yes, people will get filthy rich off doing that. So what? The Bernie Sanders types imply that wealth and inequality in and of themselves are a problem that must be "corrected" by government. In the pre-Obama days, Democrats and Republicans generally agreed on one thing about taxes, that they were strictly for funding the necessary functions of government. Left and right would disagree on what those functions were, or tweak taxes a few percent here and there, a few billion for this program instead of that, but mostly were in fundamental agreement. The modern left seems to view taxes differently, as either a punishment or a way to decrease inequality simply for its own sake. Such redistribution hurts everyone because the people who previously worked hard to earn a profit will lose motivation (why should I develop that breakthrough drug or vaccine if the government, knowing nothing about what it costs to do so, will artificially limit my prices) and wealth production goes down.
  8. servo75


    Speaking of profile pictures, when are you going to pick one and stick with it? LOL
  9. servo75


    Okay... yeah he got $1M from his father, but what of that? Last I checked, it takes money to make money. Few business people get started without loans or assistance. Many many people have gotten or inherited or won much larger fortunes than that and pissed it away. Most lottery winners end up broke because they don't manage money well, mis-invest it or otherwise waste it. Many sports stars earned 10 times that much and ended up bankrupt. It's not what you inherit, it's what you do with that inheritance.
  10. servo75


    Well, duuuuh! That's what he is, a pragmatist. Most of the people on the right (perhaps @Reagan04 excepted), don't like him because they think he's a phony conservative. Well, in a sense he is. He was always more pragmatic than ideological, and his supporters know that. We knew we weren't getting a Ted Cruz or a Ron Paul, but Republican voters have tried doing things the nice way. Nominating straight arrow Mitt Romney or war hero John McCain only to have them melt under the hot glare of the Democrat candidate. In short, we tried "presidential" in every election since 1988, and it's gotten us nowhere. So the American voters rolled the dice on someone who was... shall we say unconventional. <rant> And to all the never-Trump Republicans out there who think Trump is ruining the GOP, I just have to say this... We TRIED doing it your way, and where has it gotten us? Huh? More endless wars, more debt, more neocon policies, more feckless spineless GOP candidates and Congresspeople, and falling further and further behind in the culture wars because as soon as someone on the left called you a racist you cowered in the corner and apologized for your values!!! Maybe if we had Republican Presidents who stood up for themselves and their values, and held true to convictions, and stopped playing Marty McFly to the Democrats' Biff Tannen things would be different. Maybe if the 2010 "Tea Party" class hadn't melted down at the first sight of opposition. Maybe if the GOP hadn't made themselves the Democrats' whipping boys in Congress after Congress, and they hadn't ceded every cultural institution to the left. If previous Republicans hadn't taken the abuse from the media and said, "Thank you sir may I have another," stood up for conservative principles IN THE FIRST PLACE, focused less on placating Democrats than fighting them, we wouldn't be in the situation we are. So all the pathetic spineless gutless never-Trump Republican politicians out there, who think you can win elections with charts and graphs of Austrian Economics... I'm talking to YOU George W. Bush, George Will, Bill Krystol, Jonah Goldberg, David Frum, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, and Lindsey Graham and all the rest of you no-good losers. YOU created Trump just as much as the left did, and now you have the nerve to complain about him? You have the truth, history, economics, and all the Americans' kitchen table issues on your side. This IS a center right nation that wants low taxes, wants to be left alone by government, wants more choice in health care, education, and yes marriage and "pharmaceutical freedom," who want law and order, who believe that illegal aliens are cheating Americans, particularly lower class and union workers, out of a living. The American people ARE idelogicaly on your side but you BLEW it! You gave an inch and the left took 10 miles! You didn't articulate yourselves and when the left called you racist for your beliefs you went running to the corner to apologize like the pusillanimous cowards that you are. If you'd done your goddamn jobs over the past 32 years, actually learned to communicate your values, get into the inner cities, make serious plays for the black vote, and stopped worrying about not being invited to the right D.C. cocktail parties, and hadn't handed over every major academic and cultural institution over the far left with barely even a fight, maybe we'd have a President Cruz right now. </rant>
  11. servo75


    Many Americans suffer bankruptcies. The more you have, the more chances you take and the more successful you've been, and no one gets ahead without taking risks. Sometimes those risks turn out bad. I still fall back on the following fact: Donald Trump has personally created more private sector jobs than Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren and AOC combined. But then again, anything's higher than zero. All of them have been in government their entire lives. They know how to create bureaucratic agencies and "invest" in our economy with other people's money, but if they ever had to make it on their own in the real world they wouldn't have nearly the wealth and power that they have now. If I had a choice between never going bankrupt, never having failures, and having some failures and a few billion dollars, I'd take the latter in a heartbeat and most would. It's a matter of perspective. No matter what one may think of Donald Trump, he's been hugely successful in spite of any legal or financial issues, and knows what it takes to get an economy going a hell of a lot more than a politician who's never even HELD, much less created, a real world job. But we've been so taught as a society that wealth=greed, that making money and getting rich is wrong and no one makes a million dollars, much less a billion unless they somehow "stole" it or "exploited" someone to get it. As a society we've been taught to look down on private sector success and it's a real shame, since taking risks and suffering failures along the way is the only way anything good, whether it be wealth, jobs, or technology, has happened in this country. Every major technology, every invention, everything that's made our lives great in modern America has come out of free enterprise, hard work and risk taking. And yes people fell, and fell hard along the way. Some call them robber barons but never explained where we'd be without the fruits that their labor and investment created, whether it be wealth, jobs, inventions, technology, or making things that improve people's lives that they never even knew they wanted. That to me is a quality to be admired because it means they had the guts to take the risk in the first place.
  12. And yet... he signed First Step. That's all that matters. All Republicans perform abysmally in black support because they've basically given up on the inner cities and can't articulate why the Democrats have been so bad for them. I think Trump will do surprisingly well. If he gets as little as 20-30% that will be devastating. As for the race part, that simply isn't the job of the Presidency. It will take a long time to bridge together the rift that Barack Obama made in race relations. If there is systemic racism, the government only makes it worse by continuing to poke at it. Racism is learned, not natural. Again I agree with Morgan Freeman, the way you stop racism is to stop talking about it day in and day out. The constant picking of the sores of the past does nothing to fix the future. To me, "systemic racism" has become an all-purpose excuse for every lack of economic and judicial inequality. If anything it holds the black community back by infantalising them and making excuses. If there are individual laws and policies and police departments, etc. that have racial issues, then let's fix those issues, but to act like racism is just "out there ubiquitous in the ether" does no one any good.
  13. servo75


    He's incapable of true strategic thought.... yet he built a real estate empire and apparently masterminded a grand collusion scheme with Russia.
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