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About Sunnymentoaddict

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    Political Guru
  • Birthday 09/25/1992

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    South Carolina, USA
  • Interests
    Politics (obviously), The Simpsons, American History, baseball. Sonic Youth,

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  1. MA and VT are safe blue states, that I can see Democrats winning the special elections(baring a Martha Coakley style candidate). Also I will need to double check VT law, since some states require the appointed replacement to be of the same party as the one they are replacing. But assuming that Warren wins, I can replace one old white guy, with a younger white guy; Andy Levin( Congressman from the blue collar suburbs of Detroit).
  2. Here is mine, and I know it may not be the most perfect Cabinet, but it is the most perfect for made on a Saturday afternoon with no vetting. President: Warren VP: Castro State: Cherly MIlls (worked under Clinton when she was Sec of State) Treasury: Paul Krugman Defense: Admiral Harry B Harris (Amazing name and is Asian-American) Att Gen: Kamala Harris Interior: Steve Bullock Agriculture: Heidi Heitkamp Commerce: Andrew Yang Labor: Bernie Sanders (this might be a difficult pick to get through the Senate) HUD: Steve Benjamin (Mayor of Columbia, SC) Health, etc.: Abdul El-Sayed (easiest pick under the guidelines) Transportation: Charlie Baker Education: Rebecca Blank( Chancellor of U of Wisconsin-Madison; previously worked under Obama) Energy: Ernest Moniz Veteran's Affairs: Tammy Duckworth Homeland Security: Lucille Royball-Allard (Chairwoman of House Homeland Security).
  3. This is why I'm still keeping the midwest(which I'm putting PA in cause of Pittsburgh) as lean-D/tossup. While Clinton did well in the suburbs of Philly, she did terrible in traditional Democratic regions(she lost Erie and Scranton!). Unless for some reason that Trump is way too much for these voters in Scranton, I can't see the 2020 Democratic nominee winning both Erie and Bucks County.
  4. Another video on the 2019 General Election in the UK.
  5. The argument I'm making is the shift since 2003. All state wide offices were held by Republicans when Obama took office. 130 year history or not, the party lost considerable ground before Abrams became the nominee. However, the Kentucky Democratic Party(while on the decline) still had a stronger ties to its ancestral homes. My argument is, if Georgia was like Kentucky(in that it votes Republican at the national level, but Democratic at the local) I could say she was a terrible candidate. I say she was ok, given how inelastic Georgia is.
  6. We have to remember that Kentucky is ancestrally Democratic(and in fact their last Dem Governor was back during the Obama Administration; and nearly all statewide offices were held by Democrats). Georgia on the other hand did not have the recent tradition of split ticket voting. Abrams ran a relatively good campaign, given how inelastic Georgia is. That said, I am skeptical to read too much in the race in Kentucky, as all the other downballot races went for Republicans(including their first Secretary of State in the 40s!)
  7. I wonder why there isn't a President with this personality type. Do you think it doesn't lend well to a national campaign?
  8. I think a miniseries during the 2009-2011 Congress/Obama Presidency will be interesting honestly. Obama is coming in with wide eyed idealism; conservative Democrats and Republicans are refusing to budge. Also the worst financial crisis since the Depression is ongoing- oh and the rise of right wing populism with the Tea Party. It will be a good series. After all, Spielberg made a movie about a President urging the House to pass the 13th Amendment.
  9. Might explain why she's investing all of her resources in Iowa in hopes of boosting her numbers up there.
  10. I won't say whose raid is more successful until more details on the Al-Baghdadi raid comes out. When Osama bin Laden was killed in the Navy SEAL raid, Obama's polling jumped up from roughly 45% to 50% almost overnight; but it slowly dropped back to where it was pre-raid in a month. Considering that bin Laden was viewed by many American's as Public Enemy #1(and everyone knew what he looked like), that showcased how the raid had little impact on his long term polling; and I doubt the polling will jump up dramatically for Trump(let alone stay there long term, since Trump is in a much more polarized nation, and dealing with impeachment). To highlight the point on why I think this will have little impact, I want you to look at the nation's reaction when Bin Laden was killed. https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/america-reacts-to-death-of-osama-bin-laden/ There was nothing similar to that nearly 8 years later, Al-Baghdadi was killed.
  11. Wasn't this the same argument per se back in 2016? The argument from the Clinton campaign was, "We should appeal to the suburbanites in the sun belt" and spent more resources in the Georgia, and in Texas.Im not saying its a bad strategy(since it worked in 2018 midterms).
  12. That is an interesting question, and in my eyes it depends on what are their core values(since not every Democrat fits neatly into one quadrant). Take Steve Bullock, I feel he is right in between Rust Belt/Berniecrat given Bullock's fondness for unions(makes him in the rust belt camp), but also advocated for increasing the minimum wage.
  13. Can I make the argument that the 2008 was the start of the ongoing realignment. I agree the two parties are changing, but I feel 2008 was the starting point. The first nonwhite candidate won the nomination of a major party(while in a tight primary race with a woman), a signal of the Democratic Party's drift away from centrist policies and more towards liberal/progressive policies. The financial crash forced both parties to reexamine the American economy from different angles. Democrats began drifting more to the left on economic issues, viewing the issues of the American economy stemmed from the wealth gap; and Republicans began moving further to the right and adopting more populist messaging(first the Tea Party, and with Trump). Traditional Democratic strongholds after 2008 began drifting to the Republican Party(the upper midwest as the prime example), and yet began gaining voters in the traditional republican strongholds of the suburbs in the sun belt(Georgia, Florida, Texas, Arizona).
  14. I mean its hard to tell sometimes lol. But she shouldn't(but most likely will) run as a 3rd Party.
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