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booth088

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About booth088

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    Acting, Blogging, Doctor Who and Star Trek geek.

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  1. I finally updated this scenario again. I have added a few new Democratic candidates, shifted %'s and attributes and updated all endorsers. http://campaigns.270soft.com/2017/01/06/united-states-2020/
  2. I am a huge critic of Sanders, and feel that his outside meddling is a danger to Democrats ever winning back a majority in either house... but he will stay in this scenario. Really no chance he runs, so I will leave him off, but there is no reason to remove him.
  3. For the sake of being economical with space, I am moving the change-log to here: V 1.7.1 Sen. David Vitter -> Sen. John Neely Kennedy V 1.7 This version adds a newspaper of record as an endorser for every state that didn't already have one in the game (Iowa and New York). This adds a total of 48 new endorsers. V 1.6.1 New Democratic Debate- 04/16/2020 Trump's VP is now always Pence V 1.6 New Candidates -Democrats Fmr. Gov. Lincoln Chafee New VP's-Democrats Gov. Roy Cooper Gov. John Bel Edwards Fmr. Sec. Tom Perez Sen. Tammy Duckworth Howard Schultz New Indepenmdent Candidate Kanye West VP-Scott Disick Election Night Changes (These should make election night a tad more realistic and let the west start reporting before final numbers are in everywhere else.) Time after poll close to last numbers: 180 -> 240 Update intervals: 10 -> 5 V 1.5.2 Added New GOP Candidates Sen. Tom Cotton Sen. Ben Sasse Dwayne Johnson Added New Green Candidate Winona LaDuke V 1.5.1 Added New Candidates for Democrats Fmr. Sec. Jason Kander Sen. Al Franken Added New VP's for Democrats Sen. Tammy Baldwin Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto Sen. Maggie Hassan Added new Libertarian candidate Adam Kokesh (first declared 2020 Libertarian candidate at this point) New Interviewers added Hannity Tucker Carlson Tonight Anderson Cooper 360 The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell All in with Chris Hayes V 1.4 Changed dates of debates and primaries/caucuses to be on the same day of the week they were in 2015/2016. Since we don't know the dates for these events yet in 2019/2020, they are now at least on appropriate days of the week. (i.e. Super Tuesday is now on a Tuesday as it should be) Minnesota: Caucus -> Primary added "Fmr." to surrogates John Kerry Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Barack Obama PIP Costs 1 -> 0 Barack Obama Lasts for 5 days -> 10 days Barack Obama Hillary Clinton Bill Clinton New Endorsers Fmr. VP Walter Mondale (he begins as a surrogate for Sen. Amy Klobuchar if she is set to "on") Fmr. VP Dan Quayle Fmr. Sen Bob Dole Spkr. Paul Ryan Minority Ldr. Nancy Pelosi Added surrogate "Fmr. Amb. Caroline Kennedy" for candidate Joseph P. Kennedy V 1.3.2 Endorser Joeseph P. Kennedy -> Joseph P. Kennedy The endorser screen issue should now be fixed. I have been unable to recreate it again after a few tweaks. Changed a few %'s Added a bunch of new interviewers. It bothered me that it was easy to be interviewed on the same show more than once in a day; this makes that less likely & more realistic. On the Record With Greta Van Susteren -> For the Record With Greta Van Susteren Today's Take With Megyn Kelly 60 Minutes Morning Joe Late Night With Seth Meyers The Late Late Show With James Corden The Daily Show With Trevor Noah The Lead With Jake Tapper V 1.3.1 Fixed issue with 3 of the candidates not being available as VP's for most of the candidates on the Democratic side V 1.3 Added two new Democratic candidates: Tulsi Gabbard and Chris Murphy V 1.2 Surrogate Bill Clinton - PIP Cost 1 -> 0 Hillary Clinton endorsement now produces surrogate "Hillary Clinton" and not a duplicate "Bill Clinton" (This may or may not fix Milo's reported error message with the endorsement screen) Cruz & Kasich are now set to "on" A couple minor changes to a few percentages. (CA, NY, LA, OR, WA, AL & KY) V 1.1 Harry Reid -> Catherine Cortez Masto V 1.0 I "roughed" through a first draft to see what I get. There is a ton of changes that will be made, but I wanted to get out what I have thus far. For the 2018 mid-terms, I have Democrats losing Indiana and Republicans losing Nevada. All of the other competitive races I left with the incumbent. I replaced those elected officials that are likely to join the Trump administration. All endorsers are at least possibilities. Example, Minnesota's Governor in the game is (current state Auditor) Rebecca Otto and Georgia's Governor in the game is (current Lieutenant Governor) Casey Cagle. The current general election numbers are similar to 2016. I will need to make further changes, but this is where it will begin. I didn't touch the third party candidates yet. McMullin is still in there, but I deleted Bloomberg.
  4. Posted 1.2 http://campaigns.270soft.com/2017/01/06/united-states-2020-v-1-0/
  5. Some of the surrogate highlights: Added Secretary of State Rex Tillerson Republicans hold on to a couple difficult Governorships in Maryland and Vermont while losing several others in New Mexico, Nevada, New Jersey, Illinois, Maine, Michigan and Florida. They hold on to the rest of their seats. Democrats counter with the above-mentioned gains and hold on to Louisiana. Same way GOP holds onto Maryland and Vermont= unless something gets thrown in, those candidates are fairly popular/moderate and basically scandal free. Democrats fall short in some competitive-ish states like Georgia, Arizona, Texas, new Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa. They hold on to Minnesota, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Virginia, California, etc. In the Senate, the GOP holds a 52-48 majority. Republicans manage to pick off the Indiana Senate Seat while falling short in North Dakota, Missouri, West Virginia & Montana. Democrats pick off the seat in Nevada while falling short in Arizona and everywhere else.
  6. Decided I am going to get in on the barrage of individuals creating 2020 campaigns. First off, this campaign won't have events. It's a future campaign so we won't know what events will take place in the future. The events were designed to be external and not internal events to the campaign. That's my main issue with how some people have been incorperating events into 2020, 2016, and other campaigns. Here are the candidates I have thus far: GOP: Pres. Trump Sen. Cruz Gov. Kasich Sen. Paul Sen. Ernst Dem: Sen. Klobuchar Sen. Booker Sen. Harris Gov. Bullock Sec. Castro Sen. Heinrich Sen. Gillibrand Rep. Kennedy Sen. Warren (Off) VP Biden (Off) Sen Sanders (Off) Gov O'Malley (Off) Sec Clinton (Off) For now I am not touching the Libertarian & Green tickets. I am leaving McMullin as an independent option for now. I deleted Bloomberg. I intend to add (I am focusing on Democrats since their primary, at the moment, looks like it will be much more open than the Republican side might be): Sen. Murphy Sen. Masto Sen. Duckworth Rep. Gabbard Sec. Kander
  7. Here are the results playing as Trump/Gingrich vs Clinton/Vilsack including the csv 2020 ClintonTrumpt2.csv
  8. Well Texas going blue here by ~8% when the national margin is 15.1% is reasonably consistent, particularly with Castro as a running mate. I am going to run the same scenario as Trump this time and see how I can make things play out.
  9. Here was the final result of my Clinton/Castro v. Trump/Gingrich: *See the CSV attachment for state-by-state numbers* 2020 ClintonTrump.csv
  10. I am now in August. Update on Utah: Trump: 32.8% Ventura 20.8% Stein: 17.3% Clinton 14.8%
  11. Playing through the scenario now for a third time (different challenger to DJT each time) and decided to do a 2016 rematch. (I turned Johnson off since he has said he won't run again) Going into the Democratic convention, DJT is imploding. Clinton isn't doing especially well, Trump's numbers are just terrible. Libertarian nominee, Ventura, is actually leading in Utah. 19% Ventura-17.1% Trump-15.3% Clinton-15.3% Stein. Nationally it is Clinton 53% Trump 29.8% Ventura 3.3% Stein 1.4%
  12. You should let Gov. Edwards be available at the beginning with the rest of the Governors. In the 2016 scenario, he didn't appear til after the 2015 Gubernatorial election as he wasn't Governor until then.
  13. I still don't see any chance what so ever of Warren running. Not just because of her age, either. (She would be 71)
  14. Agree there for the most part, though maybe for different reasons. Cruz replacing DJT on the 2020 would anger Trump's midwest base. Though, they are the type of voters that may abandon Trump in 2020 if he isn't able to achieve much of his promised agenda. But, on that same note, those same voters could be encouraged by Cruz promising to deliver on those promises DJT broke. Doubtful though since those voters aren't really THAT conservative. But, yeah, if Harris wins AZ, MS, TN, & MS: She would win GA and SC. It's not the high African American vote as much as how well the Democrat does among whites here. White voters in GA/MS/TN/LA are VERY conservative. Though, in states like Georgia, there is a growing suburban population that is college educated white which bodes better for Dems there. A 29% A/A electorate in LA probably means R's win by 10+%. A 29% A/A electorate in NC, on the other had (which is more of what Georgia is turning into with the A/A population and college educated whites), would probably lead to a mid single digit win for the Democrat. Whereas a 29% A/A electorate in WI, would likely be a mid double digit Dem win. A 16% race would be what you would expect with a DEM flipping MS, LA, & IN. This i why I look forward to the favorability feature that has been talked about gets implemented. That should help make results more consistent. It would make a DEM winning MS, LA & TN mean that the DEM almost certainly would carry GA & SC.
  15. The problem with adding the congressional districts in the engine as it exists is that they have to be independent of each other. For example, campaigning in ME2 not only affects ME2, but ME statewide as ME is half-ish of the ME electorate. That would effect the 1 statewide EV. I would say to probably leave that alone until there is a mechanism in the engine to accommodate NE & ME.
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