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Everything posted by vcczar

  1. 2020 Election update

    I've decided to update the endorsers in my 2020 election, since I hadn't done so since November or December 2016, which has allowed for some Governors and Senators that are unlikely to serve in those positions, since rumors have changed. I'd say I changed about 15 of the endorsers. This will be included in the update, whenever I post it.
  2. Hypothetical forum cabinet

    I was thinking that since we started talking about this in another thread (it was off-topic), I'd move it to it's own thread: I was thinking if everyone followed my template and tried to argue why they were suited or not suited for these positions (assuming they could only be filled by forum users on this forum): President: Sure, but keep in mind I'd be a domestic issues-oriented president. Ideally, active in social and domestic improvements like FDR or LBJ, but without the wars, both declared and undeclared, both overt and covert. Vice President: Sure Chief of Staff: Not desired, even though I think I'd be good at it. Sec of State: I think I probably know more about foreign affairs than most people on here, but it isn't my area of interest: Sec of Treasury: Economics is my weakest area. I"d be terrible at this post. Sec of Defense: Other than having taken 5 military history courses, I have very little interest in military matters, even though I'm adept at military strategy and history. Att Gen: This really is outside of my area of expertise (except basic law and Constitutional law) or interest as well. Sec of Interior: I'm a little too urban-oriented for this to be a great fit for me. Sec of Agriculture: Same as I saw about Interior. My dad was born on a farm, and I saw where he was born, but that's as close to agriculture as I've ever been. Sec of Commerce: I have experience in this department, since I worked for the US Census, but commerce and trade aren't my main areas of expertise. Sec of Labor: I would saw that having worked both Union jobs and non-union jobs, as well as having strong pro-labor interests, makes me a candidate for this spot in a forum cabinet. Sec of Health & HS: I have very little medical knowledge, relative to my other knowledge of things. I would be an imperfect fit here. Sec of HUD: I would be a decent choice here if the focus of the administration in this department was geared towards housing for the poor. As far as standard housing market issues, it's probably best to find someone else. Sec of Transportation: I am a huge fan of public transportation, and find metro systems fascinating. However, I have a strong bias against car-culture (although, I restrain it), that makes me unfit for this position by nature. Sec of Energy: I would not be fit for this office. Sec of Education: As a professor, I am probably best suited for this position in the cabinet. Sec of VA: I am not a military veteran. Sec of Homeland Sec: I don't think I'm, by nature, paranoid enough for this position. Nat Sec Adviser: Same as the above UN Ambassador: In relation to most in this forum, I'd probably be able to handle this position, but only if no one better in the forum can be found. Trade Rep: No Dir. of National Intel.: No Office of Mgmt and Budget: No Dir. of CIA: No Adm of EPA: I would have my heart in the right place, but I feel like I'm too urban-oriented for a position that needs someone more balanced between city, nature and rural. Adm of Small Business: No, although I'd like to own my own coffee shop.
  3. 2020 Election update

    Those are both good suggestions, but I'd have to see some more rumors. Kasich has no chance of winning the Democratic primary. I have created him as an independent option. I might add more populist challengers that are Bannon-pawns, but I'd have to identify who these are, and who might run.
  4. Intelligence of Presidents

    This is an interesting study on presidential IQs: https://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~jcampbel/documents/SimontonPresIQ2006.pdf For those that don't want to read it yourself, I thought this was interesting (Obama and Trump are not included): Top 5 in Intellectual Brilliance : 1. Jefferson 3.1 2. JFK 1.8 3. Wilson 1.3 4. JQ Adams 1.2 5. Clinton 1.0 Top 5 least Intellectually brilliant 1. Harding -2.0 2. Coolidge -1.5 3t. Monroe -1.4 3t. Grant -1.4 5t Taylor -1.2 5t. A Johnson -1.2 All in all, most of our presidents have not been intellectually brilliant, scoring negatively in this category. GW Bush was a -0.7 if you were curious. Openness to Experience 1. Jefferson 99 2. JQ Adams 98 3. Lincoln 95 4. JFK 82 5. Clinton 82 Least Open to Experience 1. GW Bush 0 2. Jackson 0.5 3. Taft 1 4. Truman 1.7 5. Grant 2.3 High IQ (The test gives 4 results, but these seems the most likely): 1. JQ Adams 170 2. Jefferson 160 3. JFK 156 4. Clinton 154 5t Madison 150 5t J Adams 150 Low IQ (rounded up): 1. Grant 115 2. Jackson 120 3t. Monroe 121 3t. Harding 121 3t. GW Bush 121
  5. Intelligence of Presidents

    It isn't just based on how well one writes. It is much more based on the content within their writing. In regards to a diminishing marginal return, as far as I know, the historians that analyze this take it into effect. They also use things like the Flynn-Effect and other estimating theories in order to take in account the intelligence of the person within their time, and translate that to IQs of the 21st century. I'm also certain they take into account whom they are corresponding with, since I can't think of a single historian that's going to rate Jefferson on how he wrote to his young daughters. The letters are generally going to be those conducted with intellectual peers. That is, Jefferson at 15 writing to fellow classmates, to his father, to a schoolmaster, to a minister, etc. Take in mind that at 15 you were practically an adult, and many started college at this time. He would write as an adult, and would expect his writing and its content to reflect the honor and worth of his person. I don't think correspondence became very casual until the telephone became common. Historians would then have to take in other factors. I think estimating anyone born after WWII (Clinton, Bush II, Obama, Trump) will be much more difficult to estimate, as far as intelligence, since we won't have many remaining documents between the ages of 15-25. Other facts are then included and accounted for in relation to other items used over time. Again, this is an estimation. I find fault with Grant at 115 and even Jackson's low IQ. I think both were probably mentally underdeveloped as children (could be chemical, could be experiential), and didn't have, what I call, a "cognitive renaissance," until they were about 25. I'd argue Grant about 128-135, and the same for Jackson. Monroe's might really be higher than 121, but I'm less certain of that than I am about Grant and Jackson. Harding and GW Bush seems rightfully below 130, and I'd probably through Fillmore, A Johnson, Taylor, Arthur, WH Harrison (maybe), in that below 130 group. However, I'm not the one analyzing the evidence, and I'm not experienced in IQ estimation.
  6. Youngest Forum Users

    Thank God there's someone in here older than Patine and I.
  7. 2020 Playthrough

    Now that I've updated by 2020 election, I thought I'd do a playthrough with all possible candidates turned on. Here are the results: Beginning of July 2019 Republican Frontrunner: Trump 27% with Kasich at 7% Democratic Frontrunner: Biden 9% with several other closing in at around 6 to 7% Trump facing impeachment is hammered by both Democrats and Republicans. Trump tries to combat this through his usual rhetoric, which the populous is mostly getting tired of hearing. Trump tries a major staff shakeup, including firing Jeff Sessions. End of July position: Republican Frontrunner: Kasich 14%, followed closely by Pence 13%, Cruz 12% and Rubio 10% Democratic Frontrunner: Biden 11% with several around 6 to 7%
  8. Youngest Forum Users

    Maybe I'd make you UN Ambassador, since I haven't tabbed anyone there. If I gave this hypothetical scenario any more thought, I might shift people around.
  9. Trump Predictions from 538.com Chat

    I want this situation to happen as well; however, I don't want it to occur until the last few months of Trump's presidency, so as to limit any danger by Pence or Ryan
  10. Youngest Forum Users

    I didn't purposely exclude you, I just had so many spots, and these other names came up first. I would clearly rather have you in the administration than Potatowalrus, Reagan, and some others. I also don't know what your interests are. There are still some open cabinet-level positions.
  11. Intelligence of Presidents

    You've barely shown half that IQ on this forum, but if there is any chance of that being true, then I would like you to show it more often in the forum. As we could certainly benefit if everyone exerted the full potential of their intelligence in providing quality posts. Generally, you just parrot Trump sound bites like, "you are fake news." which shows none of the imagination or originality that is a hallmark, and possibly a requirement, of a 130+ IQ.
  12. Youngest Forum Users

    Yeah, I gave you that based off your listed interests.
  13. Youngest Forum Users

    I guess this is what my Forum cabinet would look like: President @vcczar Vice President @Patine Chief of Staff: also Patine Sec of State @admin_270 Sec of Treasury @Conservative Elector 2 Sec of Defense @jvikings1 Att Gen @CalebsParadox Sec of Interior: @SiorafasNaCillini Sec of Agriculture: @Reagan04 Sec of Commerce: @thr33 Sec of Labor: @SeanFKennedy Sec of Health & HS: @sanser @Sandy Sec of HUD: @michaelsdiamonds Sec of Transportation: @NYrepublican Sec of Energy: @Sunnymentoaddict Sec of Education: @Falcon Sec of VA: @ThePotatoWalrus Sec of Homeland Sec: @President Garrett Walker Nat Sec Adviser: @jnewt
  14. Youngest Forum Users

    Probably Veterans Affairs. I think you'd actually care about their welfare since the military is generally supported by white nationalists. If forced to pick a spot for @NYrepublican I'd give him transportation since, although conservative, he has knowledge and experience with public transportation, since he lives in NYC. I'll give @Reagan04 Agriculture, as I think he'd most like working with people invested in that sphere of work.
  15. Gilded Age Playthrough (1868-1900)

    1880: Bayard's presidency was popular among the South and financial centers, but not so much with the rest of the country, who were suffering economically. Republicans nearly renominate Blaine for a 3rd time in a row; however, he's barely beaten by John Sherman, who had been Blaine's first VP nominee. Robert Todd Lincoln, son of the former president, is selected as Sherman's VP nominee. Democrats renominate incumbent President Thomas Bayard and VP John Brown Gordon. The Greenback Party also fields a candidate. Results: Sherman/Lincoln 47.4% 203 EVs Bayard/Gordon 49.4% 167 EVs Greenback 3.2% Sherman and Lincoln were very active in campaigning in the states not dominated by financial interests. Bayard had hoped the populated Eastern cities would carry him, but losing Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut by slim margins helped undo Bayard.
  16. I've decided to play all the elections from 1868-1900, partially to test them. I'm "playing" as the simulator with all candidates on.
  17. Youngest Forum Users

    I don't know that much about you. You'd get education, commerce, homeland security, HUD or Interior, depending on what suits your interests and experience.
  18. Youngest Forum Users

    @Patine He said something about being an "extreme moderate," and that anyone to the left or right of him should be castrated, or something to that effect.
  19. Youngest Forum Users

    I would have to let events dictate that. I'd be happy if I were successful in either case.
  20. Youngest Forum Users

    I don't emulate, and I wouldn't ever want to build a cult-following, since that is unlikely to produce disciples that can live up to the expectations of the people, who expect the next leader to be identical or grander than the original cult-leader.
  21. 2020 Candidate abilities poll

    This might be a better way to address the 2020 candidates. I'm most concerned in regards to these numbers.
  22. Youngest Forum Users

    Theodore Roosevelt was the first modern-day campaign president that won with campaigning. Douglas actually did more campaigning after he lost, to help keep the Union together. Weaver (Populist) might be the first true campaign candidate. WJ Bryan was the first of the major party--far outdoing Douglas. Roosevelt and Wilson made it normal.
  23. Youngest Forum Users

    Well, if my forum cabinet is any idea of how I would appoint a cabinet, I have three Republicans in the cabinet. This is three times more than is generally done. I'd certainly have advisers specifically to play devil's advocate and present alternative views. I wouldn't want to enact a policy of my ideological viewpoint unless it was virtually impenetrable, which means I'd have to probably listen to the other side as much, or more, than people that agree with me. I'd want to render criticism of my policies to impotent and feckless talking points.