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vcczar

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About vcczar

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    Professor

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    Male
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    Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (formerly Austin, TX and NYC)
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    politics, history, coffee, walking, and everything else.

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  1. vcczar

    Fun Primary Game

    Ok, since I've done the GOP state demographic ranking. Here's the Democrats: Alabama: Loyalists, Blacks, Millennials, Left, Hispanic/Asian Alaska: Left, Millennials, Loyalist, Hispanic/Asian, Blacks Arizona: Hispanic-Asian, Loyalist, Millennials, Left, Blacks Arkansas: Loyalists, Blacks, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asian California: Millennials, Loyalists, Left, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks Colorado: Millennials, Left, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks Connecticut: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asian Delaware: Loyalist, Blacks, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asian Florida: Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Left, Blacks Georgia: Blacks, Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asians District of Columbia: Blacks, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asians, Millennials, Left Hawaii: Hispanic-Asian, Millennials, Left, Loyalists, Blacks Idaho: Liberal, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asians, Blacks Illinois: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks Indiana: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asian Iowa: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks Kansas: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks Kentucky: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asian Louisiana: Blacks, Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Left Maine: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asians, Blacks Maryland: Loyalists, Blacks, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asians Massachusetts: Millennials, Loyalists, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asians Michigan: Millennials, Blacks, Loyalists, Left, Hispanic-Asian Minnesota: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks Mississippi: Blacks, Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asian Missouri: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asian Montana: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks Nebraska: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks Nevada: Loyalist, Hispanic-Asian, Millennials, Left, Blacks New Hampshire: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asians, Blacks New Jersey: Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Left, Blacks New Mexico: Hispanic-Asian, Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks New York: Millennials, Loyalists, Left, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks North Carolina: Loyalists, Millennials, Blacks, Left, Hispanic-Asian North Dakota: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks Ohio: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asian Oklahoma: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks Oregon: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks Pennsylvania: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asians Rhode Island: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Blacks, Hispanic-Asians South Carolina: Blacks, Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asians South Dakota: Loyalists, Left, Millennials, Hispanic-Asians, Blacks Tennessee: Loyalist, Millennials, Blacks, Left, Hispanic-Asians Texas: Loyalist, Hispanic-Asian, Millennials, Left, Blacks Utah: Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asians, Loyalists, Blacks Vermont: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asians, Blacks Virginia: Loyalist, Millennials, Blacks, Hispanic-Asians, Left Washington: Left, Millennials, Hispanic-Asians, Loyalists, Blacks West Virginia: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Blacks, Hispanic-Asians Wisconsin: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Blacks, Hispanic-Asians Wyoming: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asians, Blacks
  2. vcczar

    Fun Primary Game

    Ok, here's another thing we can try to do, @Reagan04 and anyone else: Determine the order of prevalence for these factions in each state. Let's start with the Republicans. Moderate, Establishment, Christian Conservative, Libertarian, Tea Party. I'm using several websites and maps to make these ratings. The only one that is really hard to estimate is establishment, followed by moderate. Here are the states: Alabama: Christian, Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate Alaska: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Moderate, Christian Arizona: Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate, Christian Arkansas: Christian, Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate California: Moderate, Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Christian Colorado: Libertarian, Tea Party, Moderate, Establishment, Christian Connecticut: Establishment, Tea Party, Moderate, Libertarian, Christian Delaware: Tea Party, Libertarian, Moderate, Establishment, Christian Florida: Tea Party, Establishment, Christian, Moderate, Libertarian Georgia: Christian, Tea Party, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate District of Columbia: Establishment, Moderate, Christian, Tea Party, Libertarian Hawaii: Moderate, Establishment, Libertarian, Christian, Tea Party Idaho: Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Tea Party, Moderate Illinois: Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Christian, Moderate Indiana: Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Moderate Iowa: Tea Party, Christian, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate Kansas: Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Moderate Kentucky: Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Moderate Louisiana: Christian, Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate Maine: Moderate, Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Christian Maryland: Moderate, Establishment, Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian Massachusetts: Moderate, Establishment, Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian Michigan: Tea Party, Establishment, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate Minnesota: Tea Party, Establishment, Moderate, Libertarian, Christian Mississippi: Christian, Establishment, Tea Party, Libertarian, Moderate Missouri: Tea Party, Christian, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate Montana: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Christian, Moderate Nebraska: Christian, Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate Nevada: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Moderate, Christian New Hampshire: Libertarian, Tea Party, Moderate, Establishment, Christian New Jersey: Establishment, Moderate, Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian New Mexico: Libertarian, Moderate, Establishment, Tea Party, Christian New York: Establishment, Moderate, Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian North Carolina: Establishment, Christian, Moderate, Libertarian, Tea Party North Dakota: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Christian, Moderate Ohio: Establishment, Tea Party, Moderate, Christian, Libertarian Oklahoma: Establishment, Christian, Tea Party, Libertarian, Moderate Oregon: Tea Party, Libertarian, Moderate, Establishment, Christian Pennsylvania: Tea Party, Establishment, Moderate, Libertarian, Christian Rhode Island: Moderate, Establishment, Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian South Carolina: Establishment, Tea Party, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate South Dakota: Libertarian, Establishment, Tea Party, Christian, Moderate Tennessee: Tea Party, Christian, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate Texas: Tea Party, Christian, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate Utah: Establishment, Christian, Libertarian, Tea Party, Moderate Vermont: Moderate, Libertarian, Establishment, Tea Party, Christian Virginia: Establishment, Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian, Moderate Washington: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Moderate, Christian West Virginia: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Christian, Moderate Wisconsin: Tea Party, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate, Christian Wyoming: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Christian, Moderate
  3. vcczar

    Fun Primary Game

    My beard color is the same color as my face, so I look out of focus for two months.
  4. vcczar

    Fun Primary Game

    Trump was ahead of the polls almost consistently once he entered. As much as I dislike Trump he was somehow appealing to probably at least 3 of the 5 groups. I'll use FiveThirtyEights old chart to amend what you put down for everyone. This is what I get. I'm also getting rid of 0, since that's not a number that's being used. Moderate, Establishment, Christian Conservative, Libertarian, Tea Party Trump: 2/1/3/1/5 total 12 pts Kasich: 4/3/1/2/1 total 11 pts Flake: 2/2/3/3/2 total 12 pts Sasse: 2/1/3/3/3 total 12 pts Hogan: 5/3/2/2/1 total 13 pts Romney: 4/5/3/2/1 total 15 pts Baker: 5/3/1/3/1 total 13 pts Pence: 1/3/5/2/4 total 15 pts Cruz: 1/2/5/3/4 total 15 pts Graham: 3/3/2/1/1 total 10 pts Rubio: 3/5/3/2/3 total 16 pts Collins: 5/3/1/2/1 total 12 pts Murkowski: 4/3/1/2/1 total 11 pts Paul: 2/1/2/5/4 total 14 pts I think the establishment had kinda shifted from Graham. I got rid of the zeroes. I made sure there was more of a divide between Christian Conservatives and Tea Party, even though there is a lot of overlap. For instance, Cruz is going to score near total points on the Christian Conservative demographic, but not necessarily on the tea party. Trump was the Tea Party candidate. He also scores 3 on Christian Conservatives because there's a weird Conservative Christian attachment to him. Not as high as Cruz, but it's definitely pronounced. Conceivably he could be a 3 on moderate. I'd say his numbers are the most volatile because he'll just lie to reach a demographic.
  5. vcczar

    Don't Count Out Gillibrand

    I wouldn't mind her as president, but I'm pretty sure Trump's nickname for her will be "Hillary 2.0"
  6. vcczar

    Fun Primary Game

    Trump would probably be higher or else he wouldn’t have won in 2016 and would definitely be challenged in 2020.
  7. vcczar

    Fun Primary Game

    Ok cool
  8. vcczar

    Fun Primary Game

    Something like this might be converted into a fun primary game. See links below: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-key-constituencies-of-the-2020-democratic-primary/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-17-long-shot-presidential-contenders-could-build-a-winning-coalition/ Each state would have a different number of the demographic groups. Candidates might split a demographic, making it easier for someone not of that demographic to score a victory. For instance, Warren and Sanders splitting Massachusetts, allowing McAuliffe to win. Here's how FiveThirtyEight had the candidates Name Party Loyalists The Left Millennials Black Voters Hispanic/Asian Total Biden 5 2 3 4 2 16 pts Harris 4 3 4 5 4 20 pts O'Rourke 4 2 5 2 4 17 pts Sanders 1 5 4 1 1 12 pts Booker 4 2 4 5 3 18 pts Castro 3 3 3 3 5 17 pts Warren 3 5 4 2 2 16 pts Klobuchar 5 2 3 2 2 14 pts Gillibrand 3 3 3 3 3 15 pts Brown 4 5 3 3 2 17 pts Inslee 2 3 3 2 2 12 pts Bullock 3 3 3 2 2 13 pts Hcknlooper 4 2 4 2 3 15 pts Landrieu 3 2 2 4 2 13 pts Bloomb'rg 3 1 3 3 3 13 pts Buttigieg 3 3 4 2 2 14 pts de Blasio 2 5 3 4 4 18 pts Garcetti 3 3 3 3 4 16 pts Gillum 2 5 3 5 3 18 pts Abrams 2 5 4 5 3 19 pts McAuliffe 4 1 2 4 3 14 pts Cuomo 4 2 2 4 4 16 pts Schultz 3 2 2 2 2 11 pts Winfrey 3 3 4 5 3 18 pts Gabbard 1 4 3 3 4 15 pts Ojeda 3 4 3 2 2 14 pts Delaney 3 2 2 3 2 12 pts and I assume, if Clinton were included, she would get something like Clinton 5 1 1 3 3 13 pts (so while Sanders scores higher overall, Clinton hits 3/5 groups to Sanders's 2/5) For Republicans, the groups had been Moderate, Establishment, Christian Conservative, Libertarian, Tea Party. Assuming that these would still be the groups, how would you score from 1-5 the following Republicans? Trump Kasich Flake Sasse Hogan Romney Baker Pence Cruz Graham Rubio Collins Murkowski Paul If anyone wants to make a card game/board game of this, all we would need would be the 5 demographic groups for both parties somehow partitioned as accurately as possible for every state. We'd also need numbers for the Republican candidates.
  9. vcczar

    Your News Sources

    The Economist is British. I listed them.
  10. vcczar

    Don't fall for Tulsi Gabbard

    I thought he called it the greatest current Civil Rights issue facing us. Maybe he promoted it to the number one issue facing us since then.
  11. vcczar

    There's no you lose screen for primaries

    I used to play Ultima 7 and Ultima 7, p2. I also played Ultima Online.
  12. vcczar

    Your News Sources

    I forgot to add Politico. I'll do that now.
  13. vcczar

    How to play PI until it's fixed

    I hope an update from @admin_270 does come soon. I'm excited about favorability, but it's a downer when the game doesn't respond well.
  14. vcczar

    Your News Sources

    Excluding social media, what sources do you consult regularly? For me: TheHill (daily) One of the last relatively neutral news sources RealClearPolitics (daily) One of the last relatively neutral news sources (it presents articles from all over the spectrum) CNN (daily) Five Thirty Eight (daily) Huffington Post (few times a week) Fox News (a few times a week) Politico (a few times a week) Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (a few times a week) The Economist (sometimes a few times a week)
  15. vcczar

    Don't fall for Tulsi Gabbard

    @darkmoon72 @Rodja @Sunnymentoaddict @Patine In her defense, her religion and her bigoted views were part of her early 20s. She's almost 40 now. She left her father's religion and she admitted she was blind to her father's views, politically and religiously. She's since supported pro-LGBT acts, including the Equality Act. Just to show you how someone can change, Elizabeth Warren and Hillary Clinton were Republicans in their early 20s, and Donald Trump was a Democrat. I voted for George W. Bush in my first election in 2000! I voted for Bernie Sanders and then Hillary Clinton in 2016. Sen. Robert Byrd was a Klansman in his early 20s. He voted for Obama several decades later. People genuinely change. For her, I don't think her evolution was politically motivated, considering how out of place it was to the rest of the world. She grew up on an island, then she saw the world. People's brains aren't fully developed until their mid-twenties, generally. I think there are many places to attack her, however. For instance, her stances on Syria and Russia. Those, to me, are legitimate areas for not voting for her. If more recent bigoted or cultish behavior emerges, then obviously I stand corrected on the stuff mentioned in the first paragraph. Overall, she's definitely not my first choice, but I'm not going to write someone off for something they said in their "folly of youth" period (late teens and early 20s). I'm expecting @Reagan04 and @ThePotatoWalrus and most of the kids on this board to evolve
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