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Lahbas

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Lahbas last won the day on October 29 2012

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About Lahbas

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    Political Guru
  • Birthday 05/19/1991

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    jamesrobertmclaughlin@yahoo.com

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  1. Chancellor Infinity?

    Having never played K4E and only dabbled in PM4E, what were the major differences between the two? I imagine that MMP was implemented in some form, but other than that?
  2. Speaker of the House in 2020 Poll

    For the sake of argument I decided to quickly run through the last House Elections results with margins akin to what happened in 2006; polling has put Democratic support slightly under that though close to it, which would mean a popular vote margin of (~9.1%). This is complicated by the abomination that is California's Top-Two system as Democratic votes were inflated and Republican deflated given a number of Democratic-Democratic races in 2016, but I did my best to work around that. In the case of retiring incumbents I also removed a further (8%) which is traditionally considered the average incumbency bonus for congressmen (~8-10%), meaning in those particular districts the gain would be (~17.1%). Using universal swing, not the most accurate measure but you work with what you can, the following districts flipped: Alabama 2 Arizona 2 California 10 California 25 California 39 California 49 Colorado 6 Florida 27 Iowa 1 Michigan 11 Minnesota 2 Nebraska 2 New York 19 New York 22 Pennsylvania 8 Texas 23 Virginia 10 That would still leave the Republicans with a majority, 224 seats to the Democrats 211, a Democratic gain of 17. "Technically" it is less right now because, again, the polling hasn't put the generic ballot quite at 2006 levels yet, but if they exceed those levels then they can certainly capture the House as a number of districts were on the tilt. The problem though is that the number of attainable districts that aren't strongly Republican begins to drop off at that point, so anything but a narrow majority might be out of reach. Still a respectable result, but the Democratic base, at least given past reactions I've seen, may see anything less then a capture of the House as a defeat.
  3. Regional Party and Proportional Electoral

    I always wondered this, and I'm curious if there is indeed a way to implement this even if it means typing it manually into the scenario documents, or if it is effectively dead code that is present for later implementation. @admin_270
  4. Jones won

    Also it looks like the race will be close enough to force a counting of the Write-In votes, which should be interesting to see.
  5. Jones won

    Unfortunate, but I suppose this will finally kick the GOP in the ass hard enough that they feel it, rather than being able to shrug off those close victories.
  6. The "Casualty of War" Series - 1920

    I never really got into Congress Forever and so never made the jump over to Congress Infinity, but I can't even begin to imagine the kind of headache that would be to set up. Not that the idea isn't interesting, it very much is, but I would really have no good idea on how best to calculate the Representatives on a District by District basis for something like the Progressive Party, unless that is I went and translated down Roosevelt's 1912 results to the CD level (and I don't know quite where to find that). The Senate is infinitely easier on the other hand given you are again doing, well, entire States. Not really in my present plans though.
  7. The "Casualty of War" Series - 1920

    Alright so I'll be honest, I need help. Come to find out I am one of those people who can come up with a basic concept and lay out some figures, but I am completely and totally inept when it comes to some other matters like the issues; not that I don't have them, I do, but I am having a hard time getting myself to write up the seven entries required for each and every one. The issues themselves I need in order to finish setting down some of the other pieces like the leanings of the States, politicos, how events may be effected, etc., and it isn't possible to work around such a critical part of the game, least beyond what I've already done. That doesn't mean however I need the issues written up entirely per se, but that enough of a concept is there that I could potentially run with it myself; sometimes it is literally nothing more than a small push before I can get on running with whatever I'm working on. There are quite a few issues I've been looking at however, mostly from perusing the Party Platforms, and of course a couple of my own additions. There will be notes attached to those issues where the situation may have changed from OTL, especially with Foreign Affairs. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Mexico The events at Veracruz eventually spill over into war, with the United States intervening in favor of Venustiano Carranza's Constitutional Army and overthrowing the Huerta Regime. However the Roosevelt Administration extracts a number of concessions in return for this aid, such as protections for American businesses in the country, as well as the right to station its military at strategic points around Mexico until the civil situation in the country was once again calm. Carranza isn't content with the agreements in place, but sees it as a small price to pay in the short-term if it means establishing peace and a fairly free Liberal government. By 1920 there is still a sizable American contingent based in Mexico, but they mostly act as a supporting force for the Mexican National Army in its efforts to root out Emiliano Zapata's guerrilla rebels in the south. League of Nations While the same name, this League of Nations is quite different from its OTL namesake; under pressure from the Roosevelt Administration, the actual membership of the League has been limited to the Allied nations involved in the First World War for a period of twenty years, with Germany/Russia/Austria/Hungary/Turkey being blocked from membership for a period of forty years. A class-based system has also been established with "more powerful" nations subsequently having more clout over the proceedings of the assembly or in any vote. Henry Cabot Lodge is also involved in the drafting of the League, so many of his reservations and written into the organization from the start, which allows for the League to pass muster in the Senate. As such, it is not a particularly major issue. Russian Civil War Shortly before and after the conclusion of the Great War, Theodore Roosevelt deployed a sizable number of American soldiers to aid the White Forces against what is now known as the Petrograd Soviet, somewhere in the range of (100k) to (200k), their aim being to secure supply lines for the Whites and to provide combat support where deemed necessary by local commanders. By 1920 General Anton Denikin has established on the surface re-established a constitutional monarchy in Moscow under the reign of Tsar Nicholas III, in reality a military dictatorship under Denikin's direct control, with the Bolsheviks having been mauled over the last year but not yet knocked out of the fight. The question remains as to how critical American support for the Russian Monarchists is at this juncture despite Roosevelt's insistence, and the reports coming out of Russia on pogroms being conducted against minorities and suspected Bolsheviks has nearly sapped any remaining American will to stay to the finish. Agriculture Rights of Labor Basically the issue of Unions National Economy Presidential War Powers There is some concern with Theodore Roosevelt having ignored calls by Congress to withdraw troops from Russia, including vetoes at legislation aimed to end some war-time measures that are presently supporting said Expeditionary Forces in Russia. Taxation The Federal Reserve / Inflation For the period these two issues were naturally a bit related, so I wasn't if I should list them separately or not. The Federal Reserve as established is also very similar to what it was in OTL, as I imagined Progressive pressure would still push Roosevelt in that direction rather than adopting Aldrich's approach entirely. High Cost of Living Railroads Regulation of Industry and Commerce (i.e. Monopolies) Trade and Tariffs Immigration Naturalization Free Speech The Sedition Act has not been passed, but enforcement of the Espionage Act has been fierce since its passage, resulting in many arrests of those deemed acting against the interests of the United States, prominently members of the Socialist Party opposed to participation in the Great War and, ironically for the Roosevelt Administration, some members of the Progressive Party. Enforcement has gotten progressively lax as public opinion has turned against the expedition to Russia, but at times there are claims it is still used to muzzle the largest agitators or as a form of blackmail; Eugene Debs death in the early months of 1920 is often called upon as an example. Lynching Public Roads and Highways Conservation Army and Navy Naturally it is still fairly sizable as total demobilization has not yet happened, with troops still occupying parts of Russia and the Rhur region in Germany. Veterans Affairs Despite Roosevelt's best efforts, service men that have been demobilized are still struggling to reestablish themselves given the poor economic situation and the high cost of living. Education Health Roosevelt has called for but never succeeded in passing a system of universal healthcare. Child Labor Housing Also attached to economic conditions, there is quite simply a lack of available or affordable housing. Ireland There were those that hoped that Irish Independence could be negotiated by Roosevelt and Wilson at Versailles, and now those same voices are divided over how to react to the ongoing Anglo-Irish War raging across the pond. While not a pressing issue outside the Irish community, it could potentially prove valuable if the cards are played right. Philippines Essentially whether the Philippines remains a Commonwealth or goes Independent, and how soon. Asiatic Immigration An especially important issue for those on the West Coast, separate from immigration as a whole. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I'm sure I may be forgetting some, but these are the critical ones which I know I am going to be making use of in some capacity. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ @JDrakeify @mz452 @The DM @Kingthero @QuickHead555 @chunkbuster11 @Bjornhattan @HomosexualSocialist @willpaddyg @daons @LegolasRedbard @Prussian1871 @wolves @SirLagsalott @michaelsdiamonds @victorraiders @Patine @Falcon @jnewt @President Garrett Walker @Reagan04 @Conservative Elector 2 @SeanFKennedy @vcczar @jvikings1 @harveyrayson2 @lizarraba @TheMiddlePolitical @CalebsParadox @MrPrez @msc123123 @NYrepublican @RI Democrat @servo75 @koneke @Presidentinsertname @ThePotatoWalrus @Sunnymentoaddict @TheLiberalKitten @Quebecois @avatarmushi @Sami
  8. The "Casualty of War" Series - 1920

    So this was supposed to be a far more comprehensive update to the OP, with a reworked and expanded premise as well as descriptions for the candidacies, but quite stupidly I decided to write the drafts in the OP itself (except for the Republican one), and then proceeded to accidentally click back a page when I thought I was on something else, losing three hours of writing. More or less killed that impetus. Anyway, got at least the new candidates up that I've chosen for the Republican and Socialist parties as well as the new percentages, and an accompanying image to show what the map looks like at the start presently. It may still be tweaked a bit as I figure out how the Running-mates are going to effect it, but its largely set.
  9. Blurb In 1920, the euphoria and jubilation that came with Theodore Roosevelt’s fourth inauguration has now completely dissipated. The United States had found itself drawn into the Great War waging on the European continent, and despite its conclusion the nation has quickly found itself mired in the Russian Civil War aiding the Whites lead by Anton Denikin. The national economy, once prosperous, has over the last year collapsed, demobilized soldiers struggling to find paying jobs and the cost of living increasing exponentially. With the appeal of the Bull Moose having withered away, it seems as if the War has but one more casualty to claim……….. Candidates Progressive Party - Vice Pres. Hiram Johnson (P-CA) - (~17.4%) Democratic Party - Sen. William Gibbs McAdoo (D-NJ) - (~38.4%) Republican Party - Univ. Pres. Nicholas Murray Butler (R-NY) - (~28.3%) Socialist Party - Mayor Emil Seidell (S-WI) - (~5.3%) Prohibition Party - Pastor Aaron Watkins - (~0.7%)
  10. @vcczar That's fine, I'm aware you've got a bit of a full plate at the moment reworking all the scenarios, and your welcome; glad to be back in some capacity.
  11. @vcczar I knew about them not having a popular vote, my concern was that you were just never able to tell which way that "single" voter leaned. The size of the legislature in some the States I dug around for, with New York which had 144 legislators in 1812 (Wikipedia), New Jersey would have had 52 legislators (Wikipedia; 13 counties at the time), Vermont is listed as having 206 legislators (Wikipedia; no real source that I can see though), Connecticut would have had as many as 250 legislators (Wikipedia; 119 towns then established), Delaware had 30 legislators (Wikipedia), North Carolina had at least 190 legislators (Our Campaigns, Our Campaigns), South Carolina had 168 legislators (Some Carolina History Site), for Georgia there wasn't any hard data I could find but based off the Constitution of the time I estimated there were probably about 124 legislators (Likely less given the Representatives aren't accounting for the 3/5ths for African Americans, but a decent approximation), and Louisiana apparently had 39 legislators (Our Campaigns). I wasn't talking about footsoldiers, though I was straining for a more proper term. Mini-Crusaders would probably be more apt. Doesn't really matter either way. The Tennessee result I got from (Our Campaigns), Madison winning out 8,501 to 433. As for the landslides, I suppose that would depend on a number of different factors; last night I ran a basic set of simulations and Madison and Clinton won equally as often, but that was when it was being run from the general. If run from the primaries it is possible that Madison accrues more endorsements then he would otherwise, has stronger finances, and therefore has a much stronger general election start. That's happened a few times to me when trying to design scenarios in the past. -- The results in Ohio from (Our Campaigns); I could more dependably pull that and Tennessee's data from Schlesinger's History of Presidential Elections, but I'm not in a position to make a trek to the public library today. Oh I'm aware about the campaigning, but you can't do much about that without tearing out a good chunk of the game's AI as it currently is. Ironically though this could also be exacerbating your problem in terms of Clinton getting crushed by Madison; Clinton has IF of 4 and a Debater level of 3, compared to James Madison's pair of 5's, meaning that Madison is effectively as potent as Gingrich was/is in the 2012 scenario, but without the attacks from eight other candidates.
  12. Been a while since I looked at anything here, but the progress of the historical commission you guys have set up caught my eye. Just a few matters that I took note of with this scenario. For anyone who is looking at the scenario for the first time, including me, the presence toss-up States with no support for any of the parties is more than a little jarring. I understand that they do lean towards the correct parties at the end and grant their electoral votes, but it would be nice if there was some way to show from the start that these States lean that particular way. This is especially the case in the primaries where it is impossible to tell without looking through the scenario files what your starting position is in these States, which ones you might have a chance in, and as the season goes on, how you are actually doing; given the number of delegates assigned to these States, you can't ignore them, but it really isn't all that fun trying to fight for them blind either. I believe there should be three forms of ads for these earlier campaigns; Newspapers -- (expensive, but with a high power as they have a dedicated reader base) --, Posters --(moderately expensive, but with a bonus to attack and can run longer) --, and Footmen -- (cheap, but have little power as they mainly rally your own dedicated based). It isn't perfect by any means, but it would allow advertising to play some role in these scenarios. DeWitt Clinton is far too strong in Kentucky, -- (He only got 5% of the vote there) -- Virginia, -- (Even whilst representing King's voters in this case, King only got 27% of the vote historically to Madison's 73%; it wasn't a true swing State as displayed in-game) -- and to a smaller extent in Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Now part of that problem is that I really dislike using more than 10% of voters as undecided given the wild swings that can experienced -- (In my scenarios I often work with a Committed Bloc of 60%, though whether that works as it should in-game is another matter) -- but in either case across the board I find Clinton being far stronger than he should. I realize that there were elections in Tennessee, but given the lack of information on the vote, and when compared to the results that came out of neighboring Kentucky, I'd argue Clinton's support should be non-existent and that the State be cleared for Madison as, say, Georgia is. The Clinton ticket should have ballot access in Kentucky and Ohio, which it currently does not. The various debates should probably be removed given they never happened. The old events from the 1912 and 2012 scenarios should probably be removed as well, even if they have no practical effect on the scenario as it is.
  13. How do you figure the Republicans lose any seats? Every Republican seat that cycle is ruby-red except for the one in Nevada, whereas the Democrats have to protect themselves across a slew of battleground (or even Red) states such as Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, North Dakota, and so on. I know the rule about how Midterms always go against the incumbent party, but there comes a point where it is a bit difficult to believe the opposition holding the line everywhere, especially when turnout during that part of the cycle is to their disadvantage. I'd be curious who you chose to survive or get picked-off through 2018, however. Edit: I also believe that King and Sanders are both going to remain as Independents; despite the talk of having joined the Democratic Party, Sanders seems to have walked back that commitment and returned to the former status quo of "accepting endorsement" by the VDP. Not that it really matters, as you said both are going to lean strongly Democratic, whether thrown into the Party or not.
  14. It's funny you mention Mondale, given he ran in '84 and won the Democratic nomination fairly handily despite a spirited challenge from Gary Hart (at least once Super-Delegates are considered). For that reason I'm not entirely in disagreement, but I doubt he would be a weak candidate. As a compromise an argument could be made that his support is soft, akin to the polling strength that Joe Lieberman had during the 2004 Primaries before the Anti-War message proved overwhelming. I'd argue against all your proposed candidates except Hasan, Franken, Bullock and Hickenlooper, for a myriad of reasons, but I don't believe that any of these candidates will have any real polling strength except maybe Franken (largely because of his previous exposure as a Comedian). There just isn't a national following for the others as far as I can tell, nor do Representatives typically perform all that well (more in appearance than as a rule though admittedly). The same can be said of New York's mayors, but Bill de Blasio has the additional problem of being rather unpopular, and there is an outside chance that he could be ousted in either the Democratic primary or the Mayoral.
  15. Democratic I would hesitate on nixing Senator Kaine, if only because he now has a national profile and has a lot of appeal among Centrist Democrats. Now whether he would actually carry the nomination is a good question, and I personally doubt he would given the proposed field and environment, but I see no reason why he wouldn't opt to give it a shot when he'd be polling in the double-digits. I'd argue Cory Booker's presence in the race would be much smaller, if only because most of the establishment would be backing Tim Kaine, and he has managed to alienate quite a number of key people who would be strategically vital for a successful bid. That, and it wouldn't be hard to paint him as being overly friendly will Wall-Street, his attacks on Obama regarding Bain Capital coming to mind. Bernie Sanders is definitely making some noise, and while I doubt he will actually run in lieu of another Progressive, I believe it would be fair to have him as an "Off" candidate, with the caveat that both Tulsi Gabbard and Elizabeth Warren should be turned "Off" should he be activated. People are making noise about both of Minnesota's Senators, Al Franken and Amy Klobucher. Republican Don't really have anything to say at the moment actually.
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