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KHorberg

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About KHorberg

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    Political Guru
  1. KHorberg

    Updated 2012 scenario

    Can I get a copy as well? Thanks in advance! khorberg@gmail.com
  2. KHorberg

    United States - 2012 Update

    I would like the updated version as well KHorberg@gmail.com Thanks in advance
  3. KHorberg

    1980 Beta Scenario

    I'd change the Right position to "The ERA is not necessary, the 14th Amendment provides those rights" and the Far-Right Position to "The ERA would radically alter society". However, this still leaves a bad taste in my mouth because anyone who says the 14th Amendment fills the gaps is someone who is obviously a proponent of incorporation. Not exactly a position you often find on the right. Is there a reason polls now come out on Wednesday instead of Monday?
  4. KHorberg

    1980 Beta Scenario

    Thoughts- You have to click on Iowa to pull up National Endorsers. Endorser Minority Leader Howard Baker endorses Candidate Reagan 90% of the time, which is unrealistic if Candidate Howard Baker remains in the race. In terms of issues- Far Right Environment- Trees cause pollution. Seriously? Did Reagan ever say that? Did anyone ever say that? ERA- How is "The ERA isn't important, the 14th Amendment already exists" (Right position) substantially different from "The ERA isn't important" (Far Right position)?
  5. KHorberg

    After Kerry 2012

    I agree. It's not that we don't appreciate the work you're doing, but a world where Kucinich is a more viable candidate that either Obama or Warner just doesn't make any sense. Sorry.
  6. KHorberg

    After Kerry 2012

    I'm sorry, but age issues aside it seems completely beyond the realm of possibility that Ferraro would even be running for president let alone be a front runner. The last time she held elected office was 1984, she ran for Senator twice but lost both times in the primaries. In this alternate reality was Ferraro VP? Was she elected Senator? Otherwise I just can't rap my head around a 38 year comeback.
  7. KHorberg

    New Scenario

    Nearly every European would disagree with you.
  8. KHorberg

    Scenario Idea

    If we split the difference and say Republicans regain the House in 1990? Speaker- Robert Michel House Majority Leader- Dick Armey House Minority Leader- Tom Foley Senate Majority Leader- Bob Dole Senate Minority Leader- George Mitchell
  9. KHorberg

    Scenario Idea

    Robert Michel of Illinois Probably not going to have some one as conservative as Newt
  10. I think it's more likely that Perot would have become president in 1992, but 1996 would probably work as well. I know you said no pre-1972 elections but I think an alternate 1968 election would be interesting. In this timeline Richard Nixon won the 1960 election, but three years later he was assassinated in Chicago, some say as a response to the invasion of Cuba. President Henry Cabot Lodge inherits a bloody insurgency ninety miles south of Miami and decides not to run for reelection in 1968. Will John F. Kennedy stage a comeback?
  11. KHorberg

    Rising Stars

    A good deal of Rell's popularity is a result of the corruption scandal that forced the resignation of the previous governor. And a number of solidly Democratic states have or had popular Republican governors--California currently and New York and Massachusetts last election cycle. A Republican governor does not a red state make.
  12. KHorberg

    Rising Stars

    What reporters are saying this? Connecticut is not even close to being added to the GOP's column. It's congressional delegation went from having majority GOP control in 2004 (3 out of five seats) to majority Democrat control (4 out of 5 seats) in 2006 and the only remaining Republican congressman, Christoper Shays, won by less than 5,000 votes. The Democratic presidential candidate has won the state by an average of 15 points in the last three elections. In a similar vein I doubt very much that Kansas is in play for Obama. If Edwards couldn't swing North Carolina for Kerry in 04 why would Sebilius swing Kansas for Obama? I also have my doubts about North Carolina. Virginia is in play though, no doubt about that.
  13. KHorberg

    New Scenario

    I'd be careful there. Not believing in something is not the same as being against something. Islam is an Eastern religion.
  14. KHorberg

    Scenario Idea

    Clinton lost Texas by only 3 points in 1992 and 5 points in 1996. Between 1960 and 1996 the Democrats won West Virginia 8 out of 10 times, usually by 10 points or more. Today it's considered a safe state for the GOP. Stranger things have happened than Texans voting for a Democrat.
  15. KHorberg

    Rising Stars

    Your acknowledgment of a wrong does not absolve you of that wrong. Merely pointing out what you perceive as an ultra-partisan scenario does not assist in the development of that scenario. OK, it's an Obama-love fest, it's a GOP-hate fest. If you want to make the scenario better than submit some ideas rather than just attacking them. In defense of my suggestions I would mention that if you stopped 100 people in the street when Reagan was elected in 1980 and told them that in 12 years there was going to be a peaceful resolution to the Cold War how many of them do you think would have believed you? Things like cutting global poverty by a quarter (especially if you read Sachs' book) or developing alternative fuel sources (we went from satellites built with duct tape to putting a man on the moon in less than a decade) are as not as far-fetched as you might think. Is it going to be a utopia? No, but there is an argument to be made, especially since it seems extremely possible we're going to see a Democratic Congress with a Democratic White House for the first time in 16 years that a good deal of the Democrat's policy will put into place. Does that mean it's going to work? No. I'm just trying to come up with some issues that I believe will be put on the table by the Democrats by 2020, I see alternative fuels as one of them, I'm not saying I agree, I'm not saying the policies will work. I don't really see Darfur being an issue in 2020. If no one has taken action by now I can't imagine they'll have taken action in a decade. I mean look at the DRC, 3 million dead in 10 years and nothing. I imagine Iraq will still be an issue in some capacity but it's hard to say how.
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